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Deep decarbonization scenarios indicate a decline in fossil oil usage in the coming decades, meaning that oil refineries must adapt. This work evaluates the refining sector in deep decarbonization pathways using Brazil as a case study. BLUES – a national integrated assessment model – is employed to investigate the evolution of the sector in mitigation scenarios until 2050. The production of feedstocks for the petrochemical industry, of fuels for the aviation and maritime sectors, and biomass co-processing are analyzed. These strategies may bring resilience to the sector. The potential for avoiding emissions in refineries' operations is also explored. Findings show that the refining sector operates at 70% and 74% of its nameplate capacity in decarbonization scenarios. These results are used as the starting point for a detailed analysis of Brazilian refineries. Results show that the employment of refineries' assets for purposes aligned with decarbonization targets, along with emissions mitigation in the sector, reduces risks of carbon lock-in and of asset stranding. To our knowledge, this is the first study that evaluates emissions mitigation in the refining sector and also uses an integrated assessment model to investigate oil refining repurposing and co-processing options in the context of decarbonization. • The refining sector is evaluated using an integrated assessment model for Brazil. • A comparison is made between business- as -usual and decarbonization scenarios. • Opportunities for refineries' assets and mitigation measures are explored. • Opportunities for refineries depend on their location and type of processing units. • Risks of carbon lock-in and asset stranding can be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the potential pathways and associated requirements to meet a goal of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the US commercial aviation sector by 2050 as outlined in the US 2021 Aviation Climate Action Plan. Aviation traffic (RTK) is projected to grow at an average of 2.0% per annum between 2019 and 2050, suggesting that a progressive and ultimately total decoupling of emissions from traffic growth will be required to meet the US aviation sector goal. Aircraft technology advancements, operational efficiency improvements, sustainable aviation fuels, and market-based measures (MBM) are considered as emissions reductions measures towards the goal. A parametric analysis framework is used to develop low, medium, and high emission reduction scenarios for each of these emissions reduction measures. If aircraft technology, operations, and fuels were frozen at 2019 levels, the aviation sector is projected to emit ≈430 million tonnes of CO 2 (MtCO 2) in 2050. Retirements of older aircraft, replaced by current-generation alternatives, may contribute 17% of the total 2050 emissions reduction goal. Further introduction of advanced aircraft technologies may contribute an additional system-level 11% emissions reductions towards the goal. Operational improvements may contribute ≈2% with a range from 1.5 to 4%. The remaining 70% of emissions in 2050 will be addressed through a combination of sustainable fuels and MBM, where appropriate. The level of contribution from fuels will be dependent on continued production ramp-up to meet aviation demand as well as improvements in lifecycle emissions reduction factor (ERF) for current and future fuel feedstock and production pathways, ranging from 0% for current petroleum-based fuels to 100% for sustainable aviation fuels with zero life-cycle emissions. Meeting a net-zero emissions goal by 2050 with SAF would require an increase in SAF production by 57% annually from 2022 to 2030 and 13% per year thereafter, reaching 100% emissions reductions factor by 2050. MBM may fill the gap between residual lifecycle emissions after accounting for all other in-sector improvement opportunities and the goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]