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The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy and whether or not a recession is imminent. While there are signs that suggest a recession could be on the horizon, such as rising unemployment and falling stock prices, the U.S. is not currently in a recession. The article emphasizes that a recession is a process, not an on-off switch, and that there is still time for the Federal Reserve to take action to prevent a downturn. The article also highlights the importance of looking at indicators used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine if a recession has begun, rather than relying on a single rule of thumb. Overall, the article suggests that while there are risks, it is not too late to prevent a recession. [Extracted from the article]

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United States is projected to account for 26.3% of the global gross domestic product (GDP) this year, the highest in almost two decades. While China's share of the world GDP has increased since 2018, it has not overtaken the U.S. as the largest economy. The U.S. has outperformed its peers in terms of economic growth, wages, and productivity. However, there are concerns about the government borrowing and deficits, which could lead to imbalances and inflation. The strong dollar and protectionist pressures are also potential challenges for the U.S. economy. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the economic policies of Presidents Biden and Trump. The authors argue that the Trump economy, before the Covid-19 pandemic, had better economic indicators such as lower inflation and higher growth in wages, GDP, and the stock market compared to the Biden economy. They also criticize Biden's climate policy, stating that it prioritizes special interests and mandates expensive green energy. The authors further criticize Biden's immigration policy, claiming that it has led to increased criminal activity and a decline in the quality of life in some U.S. cities. They conclude by highlighting the differences between the two presidents and the importance of the upcoming election. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses former national security adviser John Bolton's comments about the United Nations and his reaction to President Trump's statements about NATO. The author finds Bolton's stance on NATO confusing, as he first suggests that Trump should stop threatening NATO members with withdrawal or non-defense if they don't meet their defense spending goal of 2% of GDP, but then argues that these members should actually be spending 4% of GDP on defense. The author questions whether NATO needs less browbeating or more. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the challenges faced by Britain's Conservative Party in selling their latest budget plan to the public. The party offered tax reductions in an attempt to stimulate economic growth, but the public responded with indifference. The article argues that the party's focus on fiscal responsibility and balancing the budget has conditioned the public to be skeptical of tax cuts. The authors suggest that the party should instead focus on promoting a well-crafted tax code that can increase prosperity. [Extracted from the article]

China's leader, Xi Jinping, has shifted the country's economic priorities from growth at all costs to "high-quality development," which includes a focus on national security, political stability, and social equality. This change in direction has led to a plateauing of growth and a willingness to accept slower economic expansion in exchange for advancing these goals. However, the transition to a slower pace of growth is challenging, especially given mounting geopolitical threats and rising internal dissatisfaction. The shift in priorities has also resulted in a crackdown on the private sector and a reluctance to implement stimulus measures. While some economists support Xi's measures, others believe they will be difficult to achieve given China's debt load, unfavorable demographics, and tensions with trading partners. The uncertainty surrounding China's economic direction has led to policy paralysis and a reluctance among officials to find creative solutions to economic problems. [Extracted from the article]

A new paper argues that GDP per capita is becoming a less useful indicator of living standards and prosperity as the world ages. Instead, the authors suggest focusing on GDP per working-age adult. Japan, often cited as an example of economic stagnation, actually leads the G-7 in terms of growth per working-age adult. As many countries' working-age populations start to shrink before their overall populations, GDP per working-age adult will be a valuable guide to economic performance. Despite concerns about Japanification, Japan has still done reasonably well and has a high standard of living. [Extracted from the article]

Robert Solow, an American economist who recently passed away at the age of 99, emphasized the importance of technical progress and innovation in driving economic growth and prosperity. His research challenged the prevailing economic thinking of his time, which focused more on savings rates and capital investment. Solow's framework, known as the Solow Model, highlighted the role of productivity, technological progress, and population growth in driving sustained economic growth. He was recognized for his contributions with the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1987, the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2014, and the John Bates Clark Medal in 1961. Solow's impact extended beyond his research, as he mentored several future Nobel laureates and helped make economics more accessible to a wider audience. [Extracted from the article]

Chile recently held a national referendum to approve or reject a new constitution proposed by an elected constituent assembly. With 99% of the vote tallied, the proposal failed, meaning that Chile will keep its current constitution, which has been amended multiple times to ensure democracy. The vote was seen as anticlimactic, as extremist efforts to upend Chile's democracy were thwarted when right and center-right parties gained control of the constituent assembly. The main source of popular discontent in Chile is sluggish economic growth, along with concerns about high crime rates, limited access to quality education, and corruption. This was Chile's second attempt at a new constitution, with the first draft being rejected in 2022. The article suggests that the unrest in Chile was not a rejection of economic freedom but rather a desire for economic stability and growth. [Extracted from the article]

OPEC+ has agreed to cut oil production by an additional million barrels a day, a move that is expected to keep prices elevated amidst ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has also agreed to extend its cut of 1 million barrels a day. These actions are aimed at stabilizing prices during a period of high geopolitical tensions and slowing economic growth. The voluntary cuts may draw criticism from the U.S., and the exact details of the compromise are unclear. [Extracted from the article]