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Quebec's forests represent 20% of Canadian forests and 2% of the world forests. Over the entire planet, forests play a major role in habitat preservation and in supplying goods and services to the population. However, climate change will have an impact on the forest through inter alia increased droughts, forest fires, warmer weather, and infestations. In this paper, we analyze the economic impact of climate change on the forest industry in Quebec over a 40-year period using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. We find that the climate change effects will be relatively weak on most macroeconomic variables as agents adjust their behavior over time and factors are reallocated across sectors. We find that climate change could generate losses in gross domestic product of up to Can$300 million (0.12% of gross domestic product) at the end of a 40-year period for Quebec's economy. However, we find relatively more important effects within the sectors of the forest industry, with losses ranging from 3% to 7.5%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal forest of higher latitudes constitutes a reservoir of trees of great ecological importance and unknown economic potential, but the stand dynamics in these regions still remain essentially unexplored. This paper examines the change in age and size structures during stand development on the northern border of the natural closed boreal forest in Quebec, Canada. Height, diameter, and age of trees were measured in 18 plots with stand ages between 77 and 340 years. The occurrence, size, and origin (layer or seed) of seedlings and saplings were assessed in subplots. Tree density ranged from 600 to 3750 trees·ha–1. Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP was the dominant species, mainly originating by layering. A cluster analysis segregated plots into even-aged and uneven-aged stands according to tree age, but size distribution of trees, saplings, and seedlings did not differ statistically between the two groups. Even-aged stands exhibited a 60% probability of assuming an uneven-aged structure between 120 and 200 years after stand initiation. At high latitudes, the closed boreal forest of P. mariana appears homogeneously sized, with similar distributions of diameter and height across all stages of stand development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]