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This paper tests the idea that the speech rate with which surrounding words are spoken affects the mental representation of words and conditions production of words. This possibility is operationalized by measuring a word's ratio of occurrence in speaker-relative fast speech. Other variables shown in the literature to influence speech rate are controlled for in a 10,000-iteration bootstrapping procedure of a mixed-effect linear regression model. The results of the analysis of 39,397 tokens of content words from 1,232 word types in English display a significant effect for a word's ratio of conditioning in speaker-relative fast speech, although the effect size is small or very small. Other variables shown in the literature to condition speech rate also significantly condition speech rate here. This paper suggests that in addition to other aspects of the context of use of words, contextual speech rate also influences the mental representation of words. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops an efficient Stein-like shrinkage estimator for estimating slope parameters under structural breaks in seemingly unrelated regression models, which is then used for forecasting. The proposed method is a weighted average of two estimators: a restricted estimator that estimates the parameters under the restriction of no break in the coefficients, and an unrestricted estimator that considers break points and estimates the parameters using the observations within each regime. It is established that the asymptotic risk of the Stein-like shrinkage estimator is smaller than that of the unrestricted estimator, which is the method typically used to estimate the slope coefficients under structural breaks. Furthermore, this paper proposes an averaging minimal mean squared error estimator in which the averaging weight is derived by minimizing its asymptotic risk. Insights from the theoretical analysis are demonstrated in Monte Carlo simulations and through an empirical example of forecasting output growth of G7 countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a planar microwave sensor for the noninvasive detection of glucose concentration in diabetic patients. The designed sensor operates from the 3.8 to 6.2 GHz frequency band, which covers the 5.8 GHz Industrial Scientific and Medical (ISM) band. The designed sensor shows a percentage bandwidth of 23.8% with a reflection coefficient (S 11) of −50 dB at the resonance frequency of 5.7 GHz. The detection was carried out by varying the relative permittivity of the blood in accordance with the glucose concentration based on the Cole–Cole model. The measured result is calculated in terms of varying resonance frequency with variation in the reflection coefficient | S 11| of the designed sensor. The observed frequency shift and corresponding sensitivity of the sensor are found at 1.7 GHz and 0.089 MHz/mg dL−1, respectively. An experimental validation has also been performed, and the frequency shift is analyzed by interacting the human thumb with the sensor. The simulated and experimental results of the designed sensor suggest that it can be useful for detecting glucose concentration noninvasively for diabetic patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the effect of conditional heteroskedasticity on least squares inference in stochastic regression models of unknown integration order and proposes an inference procedure that is robust to models within the (near) I(0)–(near) I(1) range with GARCH innovations. We show that a regressor signal of exact order $O_{p}\left (n\kappa _{n}\right) $ for arbitrary $\,\kappa _{n}\rightarrow \infty $ is sufficient to eliminate stationary GARCH effects from the limit distributions of least squares based estimators and self-normalized test statistics. The above order dominates the $O_{p}\left (n\right) $ signal of stationary regressors but may be dominated by the $O_{p}\left (n^{2}\right) $ signal of I(1) regressors, thereby showing that least squares invariance to GARCH effects is not an exclusively I(1) phenomenon but extends to processes with persistence degree arbitrarily close to stationarity. The theory validates standard inference for self normalized test statistics based on the ordinary least squares estimator when $\kappa _{n}\rightarrow \infty $ and $\kappa _{n}/n\rightarrow 0$ and the IVX estimator (Phillips and Magdalinos (2009a), Econometric Inference in the Vicinity of Unity. Working paper, Singapore Management University; Kostakis, Magdalinos, and Stamatogiannis, 2015a, Review of Financial Studies 28(5), 1506–1553.) when $\kappa _{n}\rightarrow \infty $ and the innovation sequence of the system is a covariance stationary vec-GARCH process. An adjusted version of the IVX–Wald test is shown to also accommodate GARCH effects in purely stationary regressors, thereby extending the procedure's validity over the entire (near) I(0)–(near) I(1) range of regressors under conditional heteroskedasticity in the innovations. It is hoped that the wide range of applicability of this adjusted IVX–Wald test, established in Theorem 4.4, presents an advantage for the procedure's suitability as a tool for applied research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduced in the United Kingdom in 2012, Universal Credit (UC) is a welfare benefit that replaces six working-age 'legacy' benefits for out-of-work and low-income people. Designed with the aim of simplifying benefits and incentivising paid work, UC represents a deepening of conditionality in the British welfare state. Considering these developments, this paper quantitatively investigates the effect of UC on recipients' life satisfaction. Data from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study is analysed, primarily using a fixed-effects regression approach. Results reveal a significantly negative effect of UC recipience on life satisfaction. Robustness checks and alternative model specifications, including difference-in-differences and inverse probability weighting, confirm this finding. Additionally, mediation models give credence to the idea that UC also negatively affects life satisfaction indirectly by increasing psychological distress. Heterogeneity tests indicate that UC has a less negative effect on single parents' life satisfaction compared to non-parents. Meanwhile, UC has a significantly more negative effect on the life satisfaction of people not in paid work (for reasons other than unemployment) than those in paid work. Discussion focuses on the potential effect of welfare conditionality specifically, and implications for future research and policy are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a jackknife Lagrange multiplier (JLM) test for instrumental variable regression models, which is robust to (i) many instruments, where the number of instruments may increase proportionally with the sample size, (ii) arbitrarily weak instruments, and (iii) heteroskedastic errors. In contrast to Crudu, Mellace, and Sándor (2021, Econometric Theory 37, 281–310) and Mikusheva and Sun (2021, Review of Economic Studies 89, 2663–2686), who proposed jackknife Anderson–Rubin tests that are also robust to (i)–(iii), we modify a score statistic by jackknifing and construct its heteroskedasticity robust variance estimator. Compared to the Lagrange multiplier tests by Kleibergen (2002, Econometrica 70, 1781–1803) and Moreira (2001, Tests with Correct Size when Instruments Can Be Arbitrarily Weak , Working paper) and their modification for many instruments by Hansen, Hausman, and Newey (2008, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 26, 398–422), our JLM test is robust to heteroskedastic errors and may circumvent a possible decrease in the power function. Simulation results illustrate the desirable size and power properties of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider a nonstandard multidimensional risk model, in which the claim sizes $\{\vec{X}_k, k\ge 1\}$ form an independent and identically distributed random vector sequence with dependent components. By assuming that there exists the regression dependence structure between inter-arrival time and the claim-size vectors, we extend the regression dependence to a more practical multidimensional risk model. For the univariate marginal distributions of claim vectors with consistently varying tails, we obtain the precise large deviation formulas for the multidimensional risk model with the regression size-dependent structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent scholarship contends that ancient Mediterranean economies grew intensively. An explanation is that Smithian growth was spurred by reductions in transaction costs and increased trade flows. This paper argues that an ancient Greek institution, proxenia , was among the key innovations that allowed such growth in the period 500–0 BCE. Proxenia entailed a Greek city-state declaring a foreigner to be its "public friend," a status that conferred both duties and privileges. The functions performed by "public friends" could facilitate economic transactions between communities. Accordingly, network and regression analyses establish a strong relationship between proxenia grants and trade intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The active ageing approach supports a set of roles or activities that are supposed to be beneficial for older adults. This paper reassesses the benefits of activities for the quality of life by (a) analysing many activities at the same time to control each other, (b) using panel data to detect the effects of activities over time, and (c) performing separate analyses for four European regions to test the context-specificity of the effects. The effects of roles in later life are tested on panel data from three waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) project. The results of fixed-effects regression show that only some activities – volunteering, participating in a club and physical activity – increase the quality of life, and that care-giving within the household has the opposite effect. Moreover, the beneficial effects are much weaker and less stable than the other types of regression suggest; they are beneficial only in some regions, and their effect is much weaker than the effects of age, health and economic situation. Therefore, the active ageing approach and activity theory should reflect the diverse conditions and needs of older adults to formulate more-context-sensitive and less-normative policy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent papers, Bonus-Malus Scales (BMS) estimated using data have been considered as an alternative to longitudinal data and hierarchical data approaches to model the dependence between different contracts for the same insured. Those papers, however, did not discuss in detail how to construct and understand BMS models, and many of the BMS's basic properties were not discussed. The first objective of this paper is to correct this situation by explaining the logic behind BMS models and by describing those properties. More particularly, we will explain how BMS models are linked with simple count regression models that have covariates associated with the past claims experience. This study could help actuaries to understand how and why they should use BMS models for experience rating. The second objective of this paper is to create artificial past claims history for each insured. This is done by combining recent panel data theory with BMS models. We show that this addition significantly improves the prediction capacity of the BMS and provides a temporary solution for insurers who do not have enough historical data. We apply the BMS model to real data from a major Canadian insurance company. Results are analysed deeply to identify specific aspects of the BMS model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research to-date has examined the impact of intergenerational support in terms of isolated types of support, or at one point in time, failing to provide strong evidence of the complex effect of support on older persons' wellbeing. Using the Harmonised China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011, 2013 and 2015), this paper investigates the impact of older people's living arrangements and intergenerational support provision/receipt on their physical and psychological wellbeing, focusing on rural–urban differences. The results show that receiving economic support from one's adult children was a stronger predictor for higher life satisfaction among rural residents compared to urban residents, while grandchild care provision was an important determinant for poor life satisfaction only for urban residents. Having weekly in-person and distant contact with one's adult children reduced the risk of depression in both rural and urban residents. Older women were more likely than men to receive support and to have contact with adult children, but also to report poor functional status and depression. The paper shows that it is important to improve the level of public economic transfers and public social care towards vulnerable older people in rural areas, and more emphasis should be placed on improving the psychological wellbeing of urban older residents, such as with the early diagnosis of depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective communication among seafarers is an important part of ship resource management. The improvement of effective internal communication among seafarers has an important impact on the improvement of work performance. This paper conducts an empirical study to determine which factors are related to the impact of seafarers' communication on work performance. A questionnaire was designed to investigate 339 seafarers from different companies, different ship types and different ranks. The hypotheses were tested and analysed by five-point Likert scale, hierarchical regression analysis and path analysis. The findings of the study show that communication frequency and communication quality have a significant positive effect on performance. The effect of communication quality on performance is greater than the effect of communication frequency on performance. Two dimensions of team diversity – knowledge and skill diversity – have a significant positive impact on communication quality. Based on the questionnaire and relevant analysis, this paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the seafarer's work performance from the perspective of communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many single-output regression problems require estimates of uncertainty along with the point predictions. For this purpose, there exists a class of regression algorithms that predict a conditional distribution rather than a point estimate. The off-the-shelf options are much more limited, however, when the prediction output is multivariate and a joint measure of uncertainty is required. In this paper, we predict a distribution around a multivariate random vector of dimension P, such that the joint uncertainty would quantify the probability of any vector in P-dimensional space. This is more expressive than providing separate uncertainties in each dimension. To enable joint probabilistic regression, we propose a natural gradient boosting approach based on nonparametrically modeling the conditional parameters of the multivariate predictive distribution, where we focus on the multivariate Gaussian distribution. Our method is robust, can be easily trained without extensive tuning, and performs competitively in comparison to existing approaches. The motivating application of our methodology is to predict two-dimensional oceanographic currents measured by freely floating Global Drifter Program drifters using remotely sensed data. We also demonstrate the method’s performance on simulated data. We find this method excels when strong correlation between output dimensions is present. As part of this work, we have added the model to the open source package at github.com/ stanfordmlgroup/ngboost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This note discusses the concept of aliasing and its use in the paper by H.J. Bierens (2001, Econometric Theory 17, 962–983), in the framework of a second-order autoregression with complex unit roots. The condition on the range of the angular frequency ϕ is extended to ϕ ∈ (0,2π) - {π}. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does the transition to retirement affect female subjective wellbeing? The major theoretical perspectives that have been applied as frameworks to study the heterogeneous adjustment to retirement include role theory and continuity theory. They have often been integrated with a lifecourse approach, which allows us to study retirement as a transition set inside a lifelong process. In this paper, I assess how working life courses are related to changes in subjective wellbeing before and after retirement, using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and concentrating on women. Firstly, I conduct sequence analysis and cluster analysis to identify groups of typical working lifecourses from ages 20 to 50. Secondly, regression models estimate how retirement transition is associated with changes in life satisfaction, according to the different working trajectories. The results show that some of the trajectories, constituted of discontinuity or part-time periods, exhibit a continuous increase in life satisfaction, passing from employment (or unemployment) to retirement. For other trajectories, such as the full-time one, retirement seems not to have implications for subjective wellbeing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For about 20 years, Belgium has successfully implemented working-time reduction policies for the older workforce. However, the impact of such policies on health has not been explored yet. Using longitudinal data from Waves 5 and 6 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) (N = 1,498), the paper assesses whether working-time reduction in late career is associated with a change in self-perceived health, depression (EURO-D) and quality of life (CASP-12). For that purpose, ordered logit and ordinary least squares regressions are performed, using four different models for defining working-time reductions. Results show that people reducing working time with or without additional social benefits tend to have a poorer self-perceived health at follow-up compared with people keeping the same or increasing working time. By comparison, people moving to retirement are more likely to present a better self-perceived health, depression level and quality of life compared to people increasing or keeping the same working-time level. Although, introducing an interaction effect, the paper shows that the change in quality of life for respondents reducing working hours in addition to social benefits tends to be less negative for those who wished to retire early at baseline than for those who did not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a test for homogeneity of the threshold parameter in threshold regression models. The test has a natural interpretation from time series perspectives and can also be applied to test for additional change points in the structural break models. The limiting distribution of the test statistic is derived, and the finite sample properties are studied in Monte Carlo simulations. We apply the new test to the tipping point problem studied by Card, Mas, and Rothstein (2008, Quarterly Journal of Economics 123, 177–218) and statistically justify that the location of the tipping point varies across tracts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two Twitter-based corpus studies are reported to account for the increasing preference in The Netherlands for the stigmatized subject use of the object pronoun hun 'them.' Twitter data were collected to obtain a sufficient number of hun -tokens, but also to investigate the validity of two hypotheses on the preference for hun , this is, that subject- hun is a contrast profiler which thrives in contexts of evaluation and qualification, and that subject- hun is propelled by its dynamic social meaning, being a tool for nonposh and streetwise self-stylization. Although the latter is not normally a predictor included in regression analyses of constructional choice, it turns out that expressively spruced up tweets with vivid contrast profiling are the prime biotope of subject- hun. Along the way, this paper reviews the potential of Twitter data for the reconciliation of macro-big-data analysis with micro-sociolinguistic focus, but it also reports and attempts to remedy three concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing number of studies investigate the relative importance of the major deservingness criteria (control, attitude, reciprocity, identity, need) in explaining the perceived welfare deservingness of different social groups. This paper addresses the roles of those criteria in predicting the perceived deservingness of a rarely examined group, single mothers. We conducted a survey in Hungary and compare the responses to direct questions about deservingness to the results of a vignette-based survey experiment in which the deservingness criteria were translated to characteristics of hypothetical mothers. Our results show that in the absence of deservingness cues (direct questions), respondents relied on the attitude, reciprocity/control, identity (measured by traditional family values), and need criteria to the same extent. On the other hand, in the presence of specific deservingness cues (vignette experiment), people disregarded their family values and stereotypes, and the perceived need became the strongest predictor of single mothers' deservingness. These results support the existence of the deservingness heuristic, however, compared to previous literature that emphasized the role of perceived control and reciprocity of recipients, in the case of single mothers, the deservingness heuristic seems to direct people's attention to the perception of need. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the legacy of pre-colonial centralization on tax compliance norms of citizens in contemporary Uganda. Using a regression discontinuity analysis on neighboring ethnic homelands with different levels of pre-colonial centralization, we find that pre-colonial centralization is correlated with stronger norm for tax compliance. The result is explained by the legacy of location-specific capacity of centralized states in upholding authority and a strong social cohesion exhibited through higher interpersonal trust but not through trust in public institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the associations between social participation and individual life satisfaction among older adults. It specifically considers the diversity of the practices and social inequalities among this population. For analyses, we used a large survey of individuals of 65 years and older conducted in 2011 in Switzerland (N = 2,727). The first set of linear regression analyses examines Diener's Satisfaction with Life Scale and its association with various indicators of social participation. While the second set of logistic regression addresses the issue of social inequalities by evaluating the impacts of gender, age group, region and education on social participation indicators that are significantly associated with the satisfaction with life score. Our results stressed the importance of combining multiple forms of participation for life satisfaction and shows that some forms are particularly meaningful: in particular, the involvement in associations, visitation of family or visitation of friends/acquaintances and church attendance. When inequalities among older adults are considered, having rich and varied social participation, being involved in associations and maintaining private sociability with non-kin appear more elitist. While institutionalised and/or private sociability types of participation appear particularly significant for older adults' life satisfaction, the most traditional integration forms – i.e. family and religions – are crucial for the more vulnerable. Implications for active ageing was equally discussed as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an approach to diagnosing the skill of a machine-learning prediction model based on finding combinations of variables that minimize the normalized mean square error of the predictions. This technique is attractive because it compresses the positive skill of a forecast model into the smallest number of components. The resulting components can then be analyzed much like principal components, including the construction of regression maps for investigating sources of skill. The technique is illustrated with a machine-learning model of week 3-4 predictions of western US wintertime surface temperatures. The technique reveals at least two patterns of large-scale temperature variations that are skillfully predicted. The predictability of these patterns is generally consistent between climate model simulations and observations. The predictability is determined largely by sea surface temperature variations in the Pacific, particularly the region associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This result is not surprising, but the fact that it emerges naturally from the technique demonstrates that the technique can be helpful in "explaining" the source of predictability in machine-learning models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops an asymptotic theory of nonlinear least squares estimation by establishing a new framework that can be easily applied to various nonlinear regression models with heteroscedasticity. As an illustration, we explore an application of the framework to nonlinear regression models with nonstationarity and heteroscedasticity. In addition to these main results, this paper provides a maximum inequality for a class of martingales, which is of interest in its own right. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we return to the well-studied yet still puzzling phenomenon of complementizer omission in a large spoken corpus of Quebec French, with the help of modern computational methods for annotation and mixed effects logistic regression models. Supporting previous work, our study reveals that complementizer que omission is conditioned by social factors and grammatical factors; however, we also find that que omission is conditioned by cognitive factors such as information density. Our paper thus illustrates an important way in which older variationist corpora can continue to be valuable resources for studying fine-grained patterns of variation, particularly in their cognitive aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers specification testing for regression models with errors-in-variables and proposes a test statistic comparing the distance between the parametric and nonparametric fits based on deconvolution techniques. In contrast to the methods proposed by Hall and Ma (2007, Annals of Statistics, 35, 2620–2638) and Song (2008, Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 99, 2406–2443), our test allows general nonlinear regression models and possesses complementary local power properties. We establish the asymptotic properties of our test statistic for the ordinary and supersmooth measurement error densities. Simulation results endorse our theoretical findings: our test has advantages in detecting high-frequency alternatives and dominates the existing tests under certain specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reexamines a familiar but unsettling result in the foreign exchange literature: that the forward rate is not an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate. The paper outlines why some frequently used tests of unbiasedness are non-informative in the sense that they are incapable of correctly testing the hypothesis. Specifically, many of these tests are based on regressions that suffer from simultaneity bias, resulting in biased and inconsistent estimators. This is true whether the tests are conducted using stationary or non-stationary data. We demonstrate this point both analytically and with simulations. Tests of co-integration, which are not subject to the critique presented in the paper, generally fail to reject unbiasedness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the relevance of information asymmetry between the managers of the firm and the market for the equity issue process. It uses four proxies for information asymmetry and presents three groups of tests: cross-sectional regressions of the reaction at equity issue announcements, comparisons of information asymmetry before and after the announcements, and analyses of the timing behavior observed during the equity issue process. The results show that information asymmetry is a significant variable for equity issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Errors in variables due to nonsynchronous trading and benchmark error are significant problems for capital market research. This paper develops the use of direct and reverse regression to bound true coefficient estimates when the data exhibit error structures arising from these two sources both separately and jointly. The approach appears to have broad applicability for capital markets research. As an example, the paper reexamines the small-firm effect to show that it cannot be attributed to nonsynchronous trading or benchmark error in the estimated variance of the market portfolio. This result is shown to hold even when the tax-selling effect is controlled for by excluding January returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

FFQ are commonly used to examine the association between diet and disease. They are the most practical method for usual dietary data collection as they are relatively inexpensive and easy to administer. In Australia, the Cancer Council of Victoria FFQ (CCVFFQ) version 2 and the online Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation FFQ (CSIROFFQ) are used. The aim of our study was to establish the level of agreement between nutrient intakes captured using the online CSIROFFQ and the paper-based CCVFFQ. The CCVFFQ and the online CSIROFFQ were completed by 136 healthy participants. FFQ responses were analysed to give g per d intake of a range of nutrients. Agreement between twenty-six nutrient intakes common to both FFQ was measured by a variety of methods. Nutrient intake levels that were significantly correlated between the two FFQ were carbohydrates, total fat, Na and MUFA. When assessing ranking of nutrients into quintiles, on average, 56 % of the participants (for all nutrients) were classified into the same or adjacent quintiles in both FFQ, with the highest percentage agreement for sugar. On average, 21 % of participants were grossly misclassified by three or four quintiles, with the highest percentage misclassification for fibre and Fe. Quintile agreement was similar to that reported by other studies, and we concluded that both FFQ are suitable tools for dividing participants’ nutrient intake levels into high- and low-consumption groups. Use of either FFQ was not appropriate for obtaining accurate estimates of absolute nutrient intakes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Model selection procedures have become an integral part of almost any statistical or econometric analysis of data. Prominent examples include the selection of explanatory variables in (non)linear regression or lag-length selection in time series models. It is safe to say that these methods have become an integral part of the toolbox of modern data analysis. Moreover, research on model selection (or related procedures such as model averaging and shrinkage procedures) and its implications for statistical analysis has intensified in recent years. This is witnessed by the fact that it is difficult to pick up any recent issue of an econometrics or statistics journal and avoid encountering a paper where some form of model selection, or model averaging, or general shrinkage estimation is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the factors affecting the receipt of informal care among older people in China. It uses the second wave data of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey, which collected ageing and health-related information on a nationally representative sample of 8,906 older people aged 60 and over in 2013. Apart from the factors that have been examined in the contexts of developed countries, the paper further investigates two factors specific to Chinese society: rural–urban residence and regular financial assistance from children. Based on binary and multinomial logit regression analyses, the research findings are threefold: the determinants of receiving informal care differ remarkably according to the sources of care; disability and living arrangements are the most important determinants; rural–urban residence plays a vital role in the Chinese context, but regular financial assistance from children makes little difference. It is estimated that 53 million older people are receiving informal care each year, a figure equivalent to the entire population of England. With continuous population ageing, Chinese society will face huge pressure to meet the demand for social care among older people in the future. The Chinese government needs to build a well-rounded welfare system that tackles this challenge from multiple dimensions. The formal care services should aim to complement informal care in the short run and reduce inequality in social care in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator of the structural parameters in a simple macroeconomic model in which agents are boundedly rational and use an adaptive learning rule to form expectations of the endogenous variable. The popularity of learning models has recently increased amongst applied economists and policy makers who seek to estimate them empirically. Yet the econometrics of learning models is largely uncharted territory. We consider two prominent learning algorithms, namely constant gain and decreasing gain learning. For each of the two learning rules, our analysis proceeds in two stages. First, the paper derives the asymptotic properties of agents' expectations. At the second stage, the paper derives the asymptotics of OLS in the structural model, taking the first stage learning dynamics as given. In the case of constant gain learning, the structural model effectively amounts to a stationary, cointegrating, or co-explosiveness regression. With decreasing gain learning, the regressors are asymptotically collinear such that OLS does not satisfy, in general, the Grenander conditions for consistent estimability. Nevertheless, this paper shows that the OLS estimator remains consistent in all models considered. It also shows, however, that its asymptotic distribution, and hence any inference based upon it, may be nonstandard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, some results on the complete moment convergence for arrays of rowwise negatively associated (NA, for short) random variables are established. The results obtained in this paper correct the corresponding one obtained in Ko [13] and also improve and generalize the corresponding ones of Kuczmaszewska [14] and Ko [13]. As an application of the main results, we present a result on complete consistency for the estimator in a non-parametric regression model based on NA errors. Finally, we provide a numerical simulation to verify the validity of our result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the increased attention paid to federal-state unemployment insurance (UI) schemes after the Great Recession (2007–2009), research examining the policy characteristics and the underlying logic shaping the social protection provided by a federal-state UI system is limited. Integrating the perspectives of policy design theory, comparative welfare politics, and fiscal welfare, this paper examines the unequal social protection under the American UI system during and after the Great Recession. By using model-based cluster analysis and fixed-effect panel regression models, this paper identifies three distinct UI approaches, i.e. the limited social protection approach, the unbalanced social protection approach, and the balanced social protection approach. The policy choices made by those states that follow the three approaches reflect different mixtures of policy logic, including social protection, economic stabilization, work disincentives, and interstate competition. The overall downward trend in social protection signals that the American UI system is under-prepared for the next economic recession, thereby exposing unemployed workers to the risk of economic insecurity. These findings provide implications for future policy designs aiming to strengthen the social protection of the federal-state UI system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have implemented policies to extend working lives in response to population ageing, yet there remains little understanding of what drives paid work in later life, nor how this is changing over time. This paper utilises the 1988/89 Survey of Retirement and Retirement Plans, the 1999 British Household Panel Survey and the 2008 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, to investigate drivers of paid work in the ten years surrounding state pension age (SPA) for women and men in, comparing cohorts born in the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s. Using optimal matching analysis with logistic and multinomial regression models, the study assesses the relative importance of lifecourse histories, socio-economic circumstances and contemporaneous factors, in determining paid work in mid- and later life. Participation in paid work in the five years preceding and beyond SPA increased markedly for men and women across cohorts, with women's lifecourses and engagement with paid work changing considerably in these periods. However, for women, a lifetime history of paid work remained a crucially important predictor of paid work in later life, and this relationship has strengthened over time. Experiencing divorce has also become an important driver of paid work around SPA for the youngest cohort. Having children later, and still having a mortgage, also independently predict labour force participation for women and men. Across all cohorts and for women and men, working at these older ages was a function of higher income and better health. These findings suggest that policies which enable people to maintain ties to paid work across the lifecourse may be more effective at encouraging later-life employment than those concerned only with postponing the retirement transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]