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BackgroundThe detrimental impact of smoking on health has been widely documented since the 1960s. Numerous studies have also quantified the economic cost that smoking imposes on society. However, these studies have mostly been in high income countries, with limited documentation from developing countries. The aim of this paper is to measure the economic cost of smoking-attributable diseases in countries throughout the world, including in low- and middle-income settings.MethodsThe Cost of Illness approach is used to estimate the economic cost of smoking attributable-diseases in 2012. Under this approach, economic costs are defined as either ‘direct costs' such as hospital fees or ‘indirect costs’ representing the productivity loss from morbidity and mortality. The same method was applied to 152 countries, which had all the necessary data, representing 97% of the world's smokers.FindingsThe amount of healthcare expenditure due to smoking-attributable diseases totalled purchasing power parity (PPP) $467 billion (US$422 billion) in 2012, or 5.7% of global health expenditure. The total economic cost of smoking (from health expenditures and productivity losses together) totalled PPP $1852 billion (US$1436 billion) in 2012, equivalent in magnitude to 1.8% of the world's annual gross domestic product (GDP). Almost 40% of this cost occurred in developing countries, highlighting the substantial burden these countries suffer.ConclusionsSmoking imposes a heavy economic burden throughout the world, particularly in Europe and North America, where the tobacco epidemic is most advanced. These findings highlight the urgent need for countries to implement stronger tobacco control measures to address these costs.

Objective To determine if Allen Carr’s Easyway to Stop Smoking (AC) was superior to Quit.ie in a randomised clinical trial (RCT). Setting Single centre, open RCT, general population based. Participants 300 adult smokers, 18 years plus, minimum 5 cigarettes daily, and English speaking. AC, 151 (females 44.4%) and Quit.ie, 149 (females 45.6%), mean age 44 years. outcomes for all 300 were analysed (intention-to-treat). Recruited through advertisement from July 2015 to February 2016. Intervention Randomly assigned to AC (n=151) and Quit.ie (n=149), matched for age, sex and education. Block randomisation, enrolment and follow-up at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Primary aim was to determine if AC had higher quit rates than Quit.ie service at 3 months. Secondary aims: quit rates at 1, 6 and 12 months and analysis of associated factors including weight. AC consisted of a 5-hour seminar, in a group setting. Quit.ie is an online portal for smoking cessation. Results AC had higher quit rates at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. AC: 38%, (n=57), 27% (n=40), 23% (n=35), 22% (n=33) vs Quit.ie: 20% (n=30), 15% (n=22), 15% (n=23), 11% (n=17), respectively (all p values

BackgroundThe Healthy China 2030 strategy sets ambitious targets for China’s policy-makers, including a decrease in the smoking rate from 27.7% in 2015 to 20% by 2030. China has made progress on tobacco control in recent years, but many key measures remain underused. This study explores the potential for full implementation of these measures to achieve the targeted reduction in smoking by 2030.MethodsFirst, a ‘business as usual’ scenario for China’s cigarette market was developed based only on underlying economic parameters. Second, non-price tobacco control measures were then added assuming they are fully implemented by 2030. Third, excise per pack was raised to a level that would increase the real price of cigarettes by 50% in 2030.FindingsUnder the business as usual scenario, the rate of smoking falls to around 26.6% in 2030. When non-price measures are included, the rate of smoking falls to 22.0% (20.9%~23.1%). Thus, non-price measures alone are unlikely to achieve the Healthy China target. Under the third scenario, excise per pack was roughly doubled in 2030 in order to increase real cigarette prices by 50%. The rate of smoking then falls to 19.7% (18.2%~21.3%), reflecting 78 million (59~97 million) fewer smokers compared with 2016. In addition, real excise revenue from cigarettes increases by 21% (−3%~47%) compared with 2016.ConclusionSignificantly higher tobacco taxes will be needed to achieve Healthy China 2030 target for reduced smoking even after the implementation of other tobacco control measures.

Introduction Cancer has a high mortality rate and morbidity burden in Sri Lanka. This study estimated the economic cost of smoking and smokeless tobacco (ST) related to cancers in Sri Lanka in 2015. Methods Prevalence-based cost of illness is calculated according to the guidelines of the WHO (2011). The direct costs are costs of curative care (costs of inward patients and outpatient care borne by the state and out of pocket expenditure by households) for tobacco-related cancers, weighted by the attributable fractions for these cancers. Indirect costs are lost earnings due to mortality and morbidity (absenteeism of both patient and carers resulting from seeking care and recuperation). Data were obtained from the Registrar General’s Department, National Cancer Registry, Department of Census and Statistics and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Household and systemic costs and relative risks were extracted from research studies. Oncologists (working in both public and private sectors), other clinical specialists, medical administrators and economists were consulted during the estimation and validation processes. Results The total economic cost of tobacco-related cancers for Sri Lanka in 2015 was estimated to be US$121.2 million. The direct cost of smoking and ST-related cancers was US$42.1 million, which was 35% of the total cost, while the indirect cost was US$79.1 million, which was 65% of the total cost. Conclusion Burden of tobacco smoking and ST-related cancers as reflected in these economic costs is enormous: affecting the healthcare system and country’s economy. Policymakers should take note of this burden and address tobacco consumption control as a priority.

BackgroundIndian smoke-free legislation requires prohibition of smoking at public places and owners of public places to display ‘no smoking’ signages.Aims and objectivesThe study aims to assess the compliance of public places with smoke-free legislation and determine the factors associated with active smoking in public places.MethodologyThis was a cross-sectional analytic observational quantitative survey conducted by a team of trained field investigators using a structured observational checklist across 6875 public places in Punjab state of India. The study was carried out over a period of 3 years.ResultsA total of 6875 public places across 22 districts of Punjab were observed. The overall compliance to smoke-free law in Punjab was 83.8%. The highest overall compliance was observed in healthcare facilities (89.6%) and least in transit stations (78.8%). Less active smoking was observed in public places where display of ‘no smoking’ signage compliant with smoke-free law of India was present (adjusted OR 0.6). Further, there was a positive association between active smoking and places where the owner of public places smoked (OR 5.2, CI 2.5 to 11.1).ConclusionMore than 80% of the public places in a jurisdiction in north India were compliant with the smoke-free legislation of India. ‘No smoking’ signages displayed as per legislation have an effect on curbing smoking behaviours at public places. It is recommended that policymakers should focus more on implementing the smoke-free law at transit sites and structured training sessions should be organised for owners of workplaces.

Objective Few longitudinal studies have examined the effect of tobacco price increase on both cessation among smokers and relapse among quitters. Our objective was to investigate the differential impact of the tobacco price increase on the changes in smoking status in the total population and various subgroups. Methods We analysed data from a Japanese nationally representative longitudinal study of 30 773 individuals aged 50–59 years (weighted sum of discrete-time number = 215 411) with smoking information, using inverse probability weighting to account for non-response at follow-up. Generalised estimating equation models were used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) for smoking behavioural changes (cessation among smokers and relapse among quitters), using discrete-time design. Stratified analyses were conducted according to demographic, socioeconomic and health behavioural characteristics. Results From 2005 to 2012, current smoker prevalence among the middle-aged Japanese population decreased from 30.5% to 24.3%. Of all the factors surveyed, only the tobacco price increase in 2010 (up by 37%, the highest increase during the period) was significantly associated with both cessation among smokers (OR 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.90 to 2.41) and prevention of relapse among quitters (0.60, 0.46 to 0.77). Regarding the subgroup analysis, the tobacco price increase was associated with a significant reduction in relapse in the lowest income, recent quitters and very poor health subgroups. However, different associations were observed for cessation; a significant association between price increase and cessation was observed among all subgroups except for the heavy smoker and recently unemployed subgroups. Conclusions We confirmed that the tobacco price rise was associated with increasing cessation and decreasing relapse concurrently. Furthermore, this price rise was associated with favourable smoking changes in nearly all population subgroups; a large differential impact was not observed across the various subgroups.

Background Minimum markup/price laws (MPLs) have been proposed as an alternative non-tax pricing strategy to reduce tobacco use and access. However, the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of MPLs in increasing cigarette prices is very limited. This study aims to fill this critical gap by examining the association between MPLs and cigarette prices. Methods State MPLs were compiled from primary legal research databases and were linked to cigarette prices constructed from the Nielsen retail scanner data and the self-reported cigarette prices from the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to examine the association between MPLs and the major components of MPLs and cigarette prices. Results The presence of MPLs was associated with higher cigarette prices. In addition, cigarette prices were higher, above and beyond the higher prices resulting from MPLs, in states that prohibit below-cost combination sales; do not allow any distributing party to use trade discounts to reduce the base cost of cigarettes; prohibit distributing parties from meeting the price of a competitor, and prohibit distributing below-cost coupons to the consumer. Moreover, states that had total markup rates >24% were associated with significantly higher cigarette prices. Conclusions MPLs are an effective way to increase cigarette prices. The impact of MPLs can be further strengthened by imposing greater markup rates and by prohibiting coupon distribution, competitor price matching, and use of below-cost combination sales and trade discounts.

Background Comprehensive smoke-free laws are effective at protecting non-smokers and reducing tobacco use, yet they are not widely adopted by tribal governments. Methods A series of smoke-free policy initiatives on the Navajo Nation, beginning in 2008, were reviewed to identify key issues, successes and setbacks. Results It has been essential that proposed policies acknowledge the Navajo people9s spiritual use of nat9oh, a sacred plant used for gift-giving, medicinal purposes and traditional ceremonies, while simultaneously discouraging a secular use of commercial tobacco. Concern that smoke-free policies economically harm tribal casinos has been a major barrier to broad implementation of comprehensive smoke-free laws in Navajo Nation. Conclusions It is necessary for tobacco control researchers and advocates to build relationships with tribal leaders and casino management in order to develop the business case that will take comprehensive smoke-free policies to scale throughout tribal lands.

Background Since 2006, when Poland ratified the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), there have been efforts to improve tobacco control regulation in the country. At the same time, at the European Union level, Poland took part in discussions over revision of the Tobacco Tax Directive and the Tobacco Products Directive. This study aims to explore the tobacco industry's tactics to interfere with the creation of those policies. Methods Analysis of 257 documents obtained through freedom of information request. Results We identified three means that the tobacco industry used to interfere with tobacco control policies: creating a positive attitude, expressing a will to be a part of the policymaking process, and exerting pressure. We found that those tactics have often been used unethically, with the industry providing the government with ready legislation proposals, overstating its contribution to the economy and the government revenues, misrepresenting the illicit cigarette problem and misusing scientific evidence. The industry also used legal threats, including use of bilateral trade agreements, against implementation of tobacco control measures. The companies lobbied together directly and through third parties, with the cigarette excise tax structure being the only area of disagreement among the companies. The industry also pushed the Polish government to challenge tobacco control policies in countries with stronger public policy standards, including UK display bans and the Australian plain-packaging law. Conclusions From an object of regulation, the tobacco industry in Poland became a partner with the government in legislative work. Implementation of provisions of Article 5.3 of the WHO FCTC could prevent further industry interference.

Background Neighbourhood retailing of tobacco products has been implicated in affecting smoking prevalence rates. Long-term smoking usually begins in adolescence and tobacco control strategies have often focused on regulating ‘child spaces’, such as areas in proximity to schools. This cross-sectional study examines the association between adolescent smoking behaviour and tobacco retail outlet density around home and school environments in Scotland.\ud \ud Methods Data detailing the geographic location of every outlet registered to sell tobacco products in Scotland were acquired from the Scottish Tobacco Retailers Register and used to create a retail outlet density measure for every postcode. This measure was joined to individual responses of the Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance Use Survey (n=20 446). Using logistic regression models, we explored the association between the density of retailers, around both home and school address, and smoking behaviours.\ud \ud Results Those living in the areas of highest density of retailers around the home environment had 53% higher odds of reporting having ever smoked (95% CI 1.27 to 1.85, p

Background: The illicit tobacco trade results in huge losses of revenue to governments, estimated at $US40–50 billion in 2006, and in increased consumption and thus health problems because it makes tobacco available more cheaply. On 20 October 2008 the second meeting of the International Negotiating Body (INB2) on the illicit trade protocol of WHO’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) will discuss measures to tackle the illicit trade in tobacco products. Methods: This paper presents the experience over the last decade of three countries, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, which shows that tobacco smuggling can be successfully tackled. Conclusion: The evidence strongly suggests that the key to controlling smuggling is controlling the supply chain, and that the supply chain is controlled to a great extent by the tobacco industry.

Objective To investigate smoking prevalence and cessation services provided by male physicians in hospitals in three Chinese cities. Methods Data were collected from a survey of male physicians employed at 33 hospitals in Changsha, Qingdao and Wuxi City (n=720). Exploratory factor analysis was performed to identify latent variables, and confirmatory structural equation modelling analysis was performed to test the relationships between predictor variables and smoking in male physicians, and their provision of cessation services. Results Of the sampled male physicians, 25.7% were current smokers, and 54.0% provided cessation services by counselling (18.8%), distributing self-help materials (17.1%), and providing traditional remedies or medication (18.2%). Factors that predicted smoking included peer smoking (OR 1.14 95% CI 1.03 to 1.26) and uncommon knowledge (OR 0.94 95% CI 0.89 to 0.99), a variable measuring awareness of the association of smoking with stroke, heart attack, premature ageing and impotence in male adults as well as the role of passive smoking in heart attack. Factors that predicted whether physicians provided smoking cessation services included peer smoking (OR 0.82 95% CI 0.76 to 0.89), physicians’ own smoking (OR 0.87 95% CI 0.81 to 0.93), training in cessation (OR 1.36 95% CI 1.27 to 1.45) and access to smoking cessation resources (OR 1.69 95% CI 1.58 to 1.82). Conclusions The smoke-free policy is not strictly implemented at healthcare facilities, and smoking remains a public health problem among male physicians. A holistic approach, including a stricter implementation of the smoke-free policy, comprehensive education on the hazards of smoking, training in standard smoking-cessation techniques and provision of cessation resources, is needed to curb the smoking epidemic among male physicians and to promote smoking cessation services in China.

Objective Evidence shows that smoking tobacco using a waterpipe is significantly associated with diseases. Despite this, waterpipe use seems to be increasing worldwide, though nationally representative data are not widely available. The Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) provides an opportunity to measure various indicators of waterpipe use from nationally representative surveys. Methods Data were obtained for adults 15 years of age or older from 13 countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, Uruguay and Vietnam) who completed GATS from 2008–2010. The GATS questionnaire collected data on current waterpipe use, including daily/less than daily prevalence and number of sessions per day/week. An optional waterpipe module measured former use, age of initiation, and level of consumption during a session. Results GATS was successful in producing nationally representative data on waterpipe use from 13 countries, many of which for the first time. The prevalence of waterpipe use among men was highest in Vietnam (13.0%) and Egypt (6.2%); among women, waterpipe use was highest in Russia (3.2%) and Ukraine (1.1%). While over 90% of adults in Ukraine thought smoking tobacco causes serious illness, only 31.4% thought smoking tobacco using a waterpipe causes serious illness. Conclusions GATS data provide the ability to analyse waterpipe use within a country and across countries. Monitoring of waterpipe use at a national level will better enable countries to target tobacco control interventions such as education campaigns about the negative health effects of waterpipe use.

Background Large-scale international events such as World Expos and Olympic Games have the potential to strengthen smoke-free norms globally. The Shanghai 2010 World Expo was one of the first large-scale events to implement and evaluate the adoption of strict tobacco control policies. Objective To evaluate implementation of tobacco control policies at the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai, China. Methods This mixed methods evaluation was conducted from July to October 2010. Observations were conducted in all 155 pavilions and outdoor queuing areas, all 45 souvenir shops, a random sample of restaurants (51 of 119) and selected outdoor non-smoking areas in all sections of the Expo. In addition, intercept surveys were completed with 3022 visitors over a 4-month period. Results All pavilions and souvenir shops were smoke-free. Restaurants were smoke-free, with only 0.1% of customers observed smoking. Smoking was more common in outdoor non-smoking areas, but still relatively rare overall with only 4.5% of visitors observed smoking. Tobacco products were not sold or marketed in any public settings except for three pavilions that had special exemptions from the policy. Overall, 80.3% of visitors were aware of the smoke-free policy at the World Expo, 92.5% of visitors supported the policy and 97.1% of visitors were satisfied with the smoke-free environment. Conclusions Tobacco control policies at the World Expo sites were generally well-enforced and accepted although compliance was not 100%, particularly in outdoor non-smoking areas.

Background: Waterpipe smoking is more prevalent than cigarette smoking among adolescents in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR); however, simple prevalence masks complex waterpipe smoking patterns and makes uncertain its contribution to risk of tobacco-related harm. This study aimed to integrate the impact of cigarette and waterpipe tobacco use on toxicant exposure among EMR adolescents.Methods: A cross-sectional model made equivalent individual-level toxicant exposure data for cigarettes and waterpipes, and aggregated it to 23 countries in the EMR using the Global Youth Tobacco Survey. The waterpipe model adjusted for estimated frequency of use, session duration and sharing behaviours. The final model included 60?306 12–17-year olds, and modelled as outcomes nicotine, carbon monoxide (CO) and 14 carcinogens. Sensitivity analyses substantially reduced session duration and proportion of solo use.Results: Our model suggests waterpipe use may contribute a median of 36.4% (IQR 26.7–46.8%, n=16) of the total toxicant exposure from tobacco, and may reach up to 73.5% and 71.9% of total CO and benzene exposure, respectively. Sensitivity analyses reduced all values by 4.3–21.0%, but even the most conservative scenarios suggested over 50% of benzene and CO exposure was from waterpipe use. Between 69.2% and 73.5% of total toxicant exposure derived from dual cigarette and waterpipe users, who smoked cigarettes and waterpipe more frequently and intensely than single users.Conclusions: More research is warranted to refine our model's parameters. Tobacco control researchers should consider a move towards a single unit of measure for cigarette and waterpipe tobacco exposure in order to better inform health policy.

AIMS: This article outlines how the tobacco industry has undermined tobacco control efforts in Lebanon since the early 1970s. METHODS: An analysis of online and on-site tobacco industry documents, reviews of newspapers, policy and other documents, and interviews with key policy makers were conducted. RESULTS: Findings reveal how the weakness of tobacco control legislation in Lebanon has been the product of an effective tobacco industry strategy to weaken the content and scope of regulation, and delay adoption and implementation. CONCLUSIONS: The tobacco industry has built and maintained strong alliances that were and are regularly mobilised to effectively oppose regulation. Despite ratification of the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in 2005, Lebanon's tobacco control track remains weak. Public health professionals and the government should work hard to oppose such tobacco industry tactics.

Objective: To estimate the tobacco-attributable costs of diseases separately for smoked and smokeless tobacco use in India. Methods: The prevalence-based attributable-risk approach was used to estimate the economic cost of tobacco using healthcare expenditure data from the National Sample Survey, a nationally representative household sample survey conducted in India in 2004. Four major categories of tobacco-related disease—tuberculosis, respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms—were considered. Results: Direct medical costs of treating tobacco related diseases in India amounted to $907 million for smoked tobacco and $285 million for smokeless tobacco. The indirect morbidity costs of tobacco use, which includes the cost of caregivers and value of work loss due to illness, amounted to $398 million for smoked tobacco and $104 million for smokeless tobacco. The total economic cost of tobacco use amounted to $1.7 billion. Tuberculosis accounted for 18% of tobacco-related costs ($311 million) in India. Of the total cost of tobacco, 88% was attributed to men. Conclusions: The cost of tobacco use was many times more than the expenditures on tobacco control by the government of India and about 16% more than the total tax revenue from tobacco. The tobacco-attributable cost of tuberculosis was three times higher than the expenditure on tuberculosis control in India. The economic costs estimated here do not include the costs of premature mortality from tobacco use, which is known to comprise roughly 50% to 80% of the total economic cost of tobacco in many countries.

Objective: To study the prevalence of, and discuss factors contributing to, household second-hand smoke exposure in six counties in China, providing scientific support for the need to establish tobacco control measures in these areas. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was performed. Investigators conducted face-to-face interviews using a standardised questionnaire to collect information on demographics, passive smoking behaviours and knowledge, and attitudes towards tobacco control. The setting was six counties from the three provinces: Mianzhu and Xichong counties in Sichuan Province; Anyi and Hukou counties in Jiangxi Province; and Xinan and Yanshi counties in Henan Province. A total of 8142 non-smokers (aged 18–69) in 2004 were included in the data analysis. Household second-hand smoke exposure rate as defined as the proportion of household passive smokers in the non-smoker population was used as the measure of household second-hand smoke exposure. Results: The analysis of 8142 non-smokers revealed that, in these selected counties, the household second-hand smoke exposure rate was 48.3%. Respondents had positive attitudes towards tobacco control. Of 6972 respondents, 84.4% supported all the three tobacco control policies (banning smoking in public places, banning the selling of cigarettes to minors, banning all cigarette advertisements). In 3165 families with smokers, 87.2% of respondents reported that smokers would smoke in front of them. In 2124 families with smokers and children, 76.5% of respondents reported that smokers would smoke in front of children. As many as 42.1% of non-smokers would offer cigarettes to their guests, and only 46.8% of respondents would ask smokers to smoke outdoors. Only 6.3% of families completely forbade smoking at home. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed high second-hand smoke exposure for the following demographic groups: Jiangxi Province inhabitants, females, those with low education level, farmers and married respondents. Conclusions: Household second-hand smoke exposure rates in the selected counties were high. A high percentage of respondents reported that smokers would smoke in front of them and children. The pressure from non-smokers against smoking was relatively low, although offering cigarette was prevalent. Households that were completely smoking-free were rare, Further studies on these correlated factors could help us establish effective measures to reduce household second-hand smoke exposure.

Objective: Smoking in movies is associated with adolescent and young adult smoking initiation. Public health efforts to eliminate smoking from films accessible to youth have been countered by defenders of the status quo, who associate tobacco imagery in “classic” movies with artistry and nostalgia. The present work explores the mutually beneficial commercial collaborations between the tobacco companies and major motion picture studios from the late 1920s through the 1940s. Methods: Cigarette endorsement contracts with Hollywood stars and movie studios were obtained from internal tobacco industry documents at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) Legacy Tobacco Documents Library and the Jackler advertising collection at Stanford. Results: Cigarette advertising campaigns that included Hollywood endorsements appeared from 1927 to 1951, with major activity in 1931–2 and 1937–8 for American Tobacco Company’s Lucky Strike, and in the late 1940s for Liggett & Myers’ Chesterfield. Endorsement contracts and communication between American Tobacco and movie stars and studios explicitly reveal the cross-promotional value of the campaigns. American Tobacco paid movie stars who endorsed Lucky Strike cigarettes US$218 750 in 1937–8 (equivalent to US$3.2 million in 2008) for their testimonials. Conclusions: Hollywood endorsements in cigarette advertising afforded motion picture studios nationwide publicity supported by the tobacco industry’s multimillion US dollar advertising budgets. Cross-promotion was the incentive that led to a synergistic relationship between the US tobacco and motion picture industries, whose artefacts, including “classic” films with smoking and glamorous publicity images with cigarettes, continue to perpetuate public tolerance of onscreen smoking. Market-based disincentives within the film industry may be a solution to decouple the historical association between Hollywood films and cigarettes.

OBJECTIVES: Cigarette price increases reduce smoking prevalence but as a tobacco control policy are undermined by the availability of lower cost alternatives such as hand-rolling tobacco. The aim of this descriptive study is to explore time trends in the price of manufactured cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco, and in the numbers of people who smoke these products, over recent years in the UK. SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: UK. OUTCOME MEASURES: Trends in the most popular price category (MPPC) data for cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco from 1983 to 2012 adjusted for inflation using the Retail Price Index, and trends in smoking prevalence and the proportion of smokers using hand-rolling tobacco from 1974 to 2010. RESULTS: After adjustment for inflation, there was an increase in prices of manufactured cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco between 1983 and 2012. Between 1974 and 2010, the prevalence of smoking fell from 45% to 20%, and the estimated total number of smokers from 25.3 to 12.4 million. However the number of people smoking hand-rolling tobacco increased from 1.4 to 3.2 million, and MPPC cigarette price was strongly correlated with number of people smoking hand-rolling tobacco. CONCLUSIONS: Although the ecological study design precludes conclusions on causality, the association between increases in manufactured cigarette price and the number of people smoking hand-rolling tobacco suggests that the lower cost of smoking hand-rolling tobacco encourages downtrading when cigarette prices rise. The magnitude of this association indicates that the lower cost of hand-rolling tobacco seriously undermines the use of price as a tobacco control measure.

Objective Estimates of illicit cigarette consumption are limited and the data obtained from studies funded by the tobacco industry have a tendency to inflate them. This study aimed to validate an industry-funded estimate of 35.9% for Hong Kong using a framework taken from an industry-funded report, but with more transparent data sources. Methods Illicit cigarette consumption was estimated as the difference between total cigarette consumption and the sum of legal domestic sales and legal personal imports (duty-free consumption). Reliable data from government reports and scientifically valid routine sources were used to estimate the total cigarette consumption by Hong Kong smokers and legal domestic sales in Hong Kong. Consumption by visitors and legal duty-free consumption by Hong Kong passengers were estimated under three scenarios for the assumptions to examine the uncertainty around the estimate. A two-way sensitivity analysis was conducted using different levels of possible undeclared smoking and under-reporting of self-reported daily consumption. Results Illicit cigarette consumption was estimated to be about 8.2–15.4% of the total cigarette consumption in Hong Kong in 2012 with a midpoint estimate of 11.9%, as compared with the industry-funded estimate of 35.9% of cigarette consumption. The industry-funded estimate was inflated by 133–337% of the probable true value. Only with significant levels of under-reporting of daily cigarette consumption and undeclared smoking could we approximate the value reported in the industry-funded study. Conclusions The industry-funded estimate inflates the likely levels of illicit cigarette consumption.

Aim To examine the effects of tobacco control television advertisements with positive and negative emotional content on adult smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption. Design Analysis of monthly cross-sectional surveys using generalised additive models. Setting England. Participants 60 000 adults aged 18 years or over living in England and interviewed in the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey from 2004 to 2010. Measurements Current smoking status, daily cigarette consumption, tobacco control gross rating points (GRPs-a measure of per capita advertising exposure), cigarette costliness, concurrent tobacco control policies, sociodemographic variables. Results After adjusting for cigarette costliness, other tobacco control policies and individual characteristics, we found that a 400-point increase in positive emotive GRPs was associated with 7% lower odds of smoking (odds ratio (OR) 0.93, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.98) 1 month later and a similar increase in negative emotive GRPs was significantly associated with 4% lower odds of smoking (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.999) 2 months later. An increase in negative emotive GRPs from 0 to 400 was also associated with a significant 3.3% (95% CI 1.1 to 5.6) decrease in average cigarette consumption. There was no evidence that the association between positive emotive GRPs and the outcomes differed depending on the intensity of negative emotive GRPs (and vice versa). Conclusions This is the first study to explore the effects of campaigns with different types of emotive content on adult smoking prevalence and consumption. It suggests that both types of campaign (positive and negative) are effective in reducing smoking prevalence, whereas consumption among smokers was only affected by campaigns evoking negative emotions.