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To investigate patterns of horizontal atmospheric latent energy (LE) transport toward the Arctic, we applied the self-organizing maps (SOM) method to the daily vertically integrated horizontal LE flux from ERA5 in winter (January–March) during 1979–2021. A clear picture depicting the LE transport to the Arctic at a synoptic scale then emerged, with four primary transport pathways identified: the northern Europe, the Davis Strait, the Greenland Sea, and the Bering Strait pathways. The four primary pathways occurred at a comparable frequency, and noticeable interannual variability was observed in their time series of frequency during 1979–2021. Further analysis suggested that the northward LE transport through all these pathways is significantly modulated by cyclones, with the northern Europe and the Greenland Sea pathways being mostly affected. Generally, more frequent and stronger cyclones were observed near the entry regions of LE transport compared to other regions. Moreover, this study provides a comprehensive picture of how atmospheric LE transport is related to air temperature, moisture, surface heat flux, and sea ice anomalies over the Arctic Ocean in winter. Through a thermodynamic perspective, we argue that the deleterious impacts of poleward LE transport on Arctic sea ice are to a large extent attributable to the enhanced local atmosphere–ice interactions, which increase downward longwave radiation (DLR) plus turbulent fluxes, consequently warming the surface and promoting the loss of sea ice. According to the quantitative results, among the four primary pathways, LE transport through the Davis Strait and the Greenland Sea could cause the loss of Arctic sea ice most efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During late June 2021, a record-breaking heatwave impacted western North America, with all-time high temperatures reported across Washington, Oregon, British Columbia, and Alberta. The heatwave was forced by a highly anomalous upper-level ridge, strong synoptic-scale subsidence, and downslope flow resulting in lower-tropospheric adiabatic warming. This study examines the impact of antecedent soil moisture on this extreme heat event. During the cool season of 2020/21, precipitation over the Pacific Northwest was above or near normal, followed by a dry spring that desiccated soils to 50%–75% of normal moisture content by early June. Low surface soil moisture affects the surface energy balance by altering the partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes, resulting in warmer temperatures. Using numerical model simulations of the heatwave, this study demonstrates that surface air temperatures were warmed by an average of 0.48°C as a result of dry soil moisture conditions, compared to a high-temperature anomaly of 10°–20°C during the event. Air temperatures over eastern Washington and southern British Columbia were most sensitive to soil moisture anomalies, with 0000 UTC temperature anomalies ranging from 1.2° to 2.2°C. Trajectory analysis indicated that rapid subsidence of elevated parcels prevented air parcels from being affected by surface heat fluxes over a prolonged period of time, resulting in a relatively small temperature sensitivity to soil moisture. Changes to soil moisture also altered regional pressure, low-level wind, and geopotential heights, as well as modified the marine air intrusion along the Pacific coast of Washington and Oregon. Significance Statement: The record-breaking western North American heatwave of late June 2021 was preceded by below-normal soil moisture over the region. This study evaluates the role of soil moisture on the 2021 heatwave, demonstrating that the anomalous temperatures during this extreme event were not significantly increased by below-normal soil moisture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major uncertainty in reconstructing historical sea surface temperature (SST) before the 1990s involves correcting for systematic offsets associated with bucket and engine-room intake temperature measurements. A recent study used a linear scaling of coastal station-based air temperatures (SATs) to infer nearby SSTs, but the physics in the coupling between SATs and SSTs generally gives rise to more complex regional air–sea temperature differences. In this study, an energy-balance model (EBM) of air–sea thermal coupling is adapted for predicting near-coast SSTs from coastal SATs. The model is shown to be more skillful than linear-scaling approaches through cross-validation analyses using instrumental records after the 1960s and CMIP6 simulations between 1880 and 2020. Improved skill primarily comes from capturing features reflecting air–sea heat fluxes dominating temperature variability at high latitudes, including damping high-frequency wintertime SAT variability and reproducing the phase lag between SSTs and SATs. Inferred near-coast SSTs allow for intercalibrating coastal SAT and SST measurements at a variety of spatial scales. The 1900–40 mean offset between the latest SST estimates available from the Met Office (HadSST4) and SAT-inferred SSTs range between −1.6°C (95% confidence interval: [−1.7°, −1.4°C]) and 1.2°C ([0.8°, 1.6°C]) across 10° × 10° grids. When further averaged along the global coastline, HadSST4 is significantly colder than SAT-inferred SSTs by 0.20°C ([0.07°, 0.35°C]) over 1900–40. These results indicate that historical SATs and SSTs involve substantial inconsistencies at both regional and global scales. Major outstanding questions involve the distribution of errors between our intercalibration model and instrumental records of SAT and SST as well as the degree to which coastal intercalibrations are informative of global trends. Significance Statement: To evaluate the consistency of instrumental surface temperature estimates before the 1990s, we develop a coupled energy-balance model to intercalibrate measurements of sea surface temperature (SST) and station-based air temperature (SAT) near global coasts. Our model captures geographically varying physical regimes of air–sea coupling and outperforms existing methods in inferring regional SSTs from SAT measurements. When applied to historical temperature records, the model indicates significant discrepancies between inferred and observed SSTs at both global and regional scales before the 1960s. Our findings suggest remaining data issues in historical temperature archives and opportunities for further improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate the air temperature response to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC; cropland expansion and deforestation) using subgrid land model output generated by a set of CMIP6 model simulations. Our study is motivated by the fact that ongoing land-use activities are occurring at local scales, typically significantly smaller than the resolvable scale of a grid cell in Earth system models. It aims to explore the potential for a multimodel approach to better characterize LULCC local climatic effects. On an annual scale, the CMIP6 models are in general agreement that croplands are warmer than primary and secondary land (psl; mainly forests, grasslands, and bare ground) in the tropics and cooler in the mid–high latitudes, except for one model. The transition from warming to cooling occurs at approximately 40°N. Although the surface heating potential, which combines albedo and latent heat flux effects, can explain reasonably well the zonal mean latitudinal subgrid temperature variations between crop and psl tiles in the historical simulations, it does not provide a good prediction on subgrid temperature for other land tile configurations (crop vs forest; grass vs forest) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) forcing scenarios. A subset of simulations with the CESM2 model reveals that latitudinal subgrid temperature variation is positively related to variation in net surface shortwave radiation and negatively related to variation in the surface energy redistribution factor, with a dominant role from the latter south of 30°N. We suggest that this emergent relationship can be used to benchmark the performance of land surface parameterizations and for prediction of local temperature response to LULCC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze approximately four years of heat-flux measurements at two levels, profiles of air temperature, and multiple measurements of the water temperature collected at a coastal zone site. Our analysis considers underestimation of the sea surface flux resulting from vertical divergence of the heat flux between the surface and the lowest flux level. We examine simple relationships of the heat flux to the wind speed and stratification and the potential influence of fetch and temperature advection. The fetch ranges from about 4 to near 400 km. For a given wind-direction sector, the transfer coefficient varies only slowly with increasing instability but decreases significantly with increasing stability. The intention here is not to recommend a new parameterization but rather to establish relationships that underlie the bulk formula that could lead to assessments of uncertainty and improvement of the bulk formula. Significance Statement: The behavior of surface heat fluxes in the coastal zone is normally more complex than over the open ocean but has a large impact on human activity. Our study examines extensive flux measurements on a tower in the Baltic Sea that allows partitioning of the fluxes according to wind direction without seriously depleting the data for a given wind-direction sector. Because some of the normal assumptions for the usual parameterization are not met, our study examines relationships behind the parameterization of the surface fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we investigate the effect of areawide building retrofitting on summertime, street-level outdoor temperatures in an urban district in Berlin, Germany. We perform two building-resolving, weeklong large-eddy simulations: one with nonretrofitted buildings and the other with retrofitted buildings in the entire domain to meet today’s energy efficiency standards. The comparison of the two simulations reveals that the mean outdoor temperatures are higher with retrofitted buildings during daytime conditions. This behavior is caused by the much smaller inertia of the outermost roof/wall layer in the retrofitting case, which is thermally decoupled from the inner roof/wall layers by an insulation layer. As a result, the outermost layer heats up more rigorously during the daytime, leading to increased sensible heat fluxes into the atmosphere. During the nighttime, the outermost layer’s temperature drops down faster, resulting in cooling of the atmosphere. However, as the simulation progresses, the cooling effect becomes smaller and the warming effect becomes larger. After 1 week, we find the mean temperatures to be 4 K higher during the daytime while the cooling effects become negligible. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Building retrofitting is taking place in Europe and other continents as a measure to reduce energy consumption. The change in the building envelope directly influences the urban atmosphere. Our study reveals that areawide retrofitting in a German city district can have negative effects on the outdoor microclimate in summer by causing higher air temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate how sea ice decline in summer and warmer ocean and surface temperatures in winter affect sea ice growth in the Arctic. Sea ice volume changes are estimated from satellite observations during winter from 2002 to 2019 and are partitioned into thermodynamic growth and dynamic volume change. Both components are compared with validated sea ice–ocean models forced by reanalysis data to extend observations back to 1980 and to understand the mechanisms that cause the observed trends and variability. We find that a negative feedback driven by the increasing sea ice retreat in summer yields increasing thermodynamic ice growth during winter in the Arctic marginal seas eastward from the Laptev Sea to the Beaufort Sea. However, in the Barents and Kara Seas, this feedback seems to be overpowered by the impact of increasing oceanic heat flux and air temperatures, resulting in negative trends in thermodynamic ice growth of −2 km3 month−1 yr−1 on average over 2002–19 as derived from satellite observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is thought that the sensible heat fluxes associated with sea surface temperature (SST) fronts can affect the genesis and evolution of atmospheric fronts. An analytic model is developed and used to explore this idea. The model predictions are compared with climatologies of atmospheric fronts over the North Atlantic Ocean identified in reanalyses. The climatologies are divided into times when fronts are detected at a point and times when they are not, and compared with model results with and without fronts in their initial conditions. In airstreams with fronts, both the climatologies and model show that adiabatic frontogenesis is much more important than diabatic frontogenesis. They also show that there is weak diabatic frontogenesis associated with differential sensible heating over the SST front and frontolysis either side of it. Because of the upstream and downstream frontolysis, the SST front has relatively little net effect on atmospheric fronts in the model. This result holds true as the width and strength of the SST front changes. In airstreams initially without fronts, a combination of adiabatic and diabatic frontogenesis is important for the local genesis of atmospheric fronts over the SST front. The model shows sustained frontogenesis only when the deformation is sufficiently strong or when the translation speed is low, as advection otherwise weakens the potential temperature gradient. This strong localized diabatic frontogenesis, which is amplified by adiabatic frontogenesis, can result in a front, which is consistent with atmospheric fronts in the region being most frequently located along the SST front. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased heat-wave frequency across the United States has led to the need for improved predictability of heat-wave events. A detailed understanding of land–atmosphere interactions and the relationship between soil moisture and temperature extremes could provide useful information for prediction. This study identifies, for many locations, a threshold of soil moisture below which there is an increase in the sensitivity of atmospheric temperature to declining soil moisture. This shift to a hypersensitive regime causes the atmosphere to be more susceptible to atmospherically driven heat-wave conditions. The soil moisture breakpoint where the regime shift occurs is estimated using segmented regression applied to observations and reanalysis data. It is shown that as the soil gets drier, there is a concomitant change in the rate of decrease in latent heat flux and increase in sensible heat flux leading to a strong positive feedback of increased air temperature near the surface, which further dries out the soil. Central, southwestern, and southeastern parts of the United States seem to have regions of clear regime shifts, while the eastern part of the United States generally does not get dry enough to reveal significant breakpoints. Sensible heat flux is seen to be a primary driver of this increased temperature sensitivity aided by the drop in latent heat flux. An investigation of flux tower sites verifies the breakpoint–flux relationships found in reanalysis data. Accurate estimation of these breakpoints can contribute to improved heat-wave prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have suggested that coherent multidecadal variability exists between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking frequency and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). However, the role of AMV in modulating blocking variability on multidecadal times scales is not fully understood. This study examines this issue primarily using the NOAA Twentieth Century Reanalysis for 1901-2010. The second mode of the empirical orthogonal function for winter (December-March) atmospheric blocking variability in the North Atlantic exhibits oppositely signed anomalies of blocking frequency over Greenland and the Azores. Furthermore, its principal component time series shows a dominant multidecadal variability lagging AMV by several years. Composite analyses show that this lag is due to the slow evolution of the AMV sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which is likely driven by the ocean circulation. Following the warm phase of AMV, the warm SST anomalies emerge in the western subpolar gyre over 3-7 years. The ocean--atmosphere interaction over these 3-7-yr periods is characterized by the damping of the warm SST anomalies by the surface heat flux anomalies, which in turn reduce the overall meridional gradient of the air temperature and thus weaken the meridional transient eddy heat flux in the lower troposphere. The anomalous transient eddy forcing then shifts the eddy-driven jet equatorward, resulting in enhanced Rossby wave breaking and blocking on the northern flank of the jet over Greenland. The opposite is true with theAMVcold phases but with much shorter lags, as the evolution of SST anomalies differs in the warm and cold phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of studies have used time series of air temperature and specific humidity observations to estimate turbulent heat fluxes. These studies require the specification of surface roughness lengths for heat and momentum (that are directly related to the neutral bulk heat transfer coefficient CHN) and/or ground heat flux, which are often unavailable. In this study, sequences of air temperature and specific humidity are assimilated into an atmospheric boundary layer model within a variational data assimilation (VDA) framework to estimate CHN, evaporative fraction (EF), turbulent heat fluxes, and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height, potential temperature, and humidity. The developed VDA approach needs neither the surface roughness parameterization (as it is optimized by the VDA approach) nor ground heat flux measurements. The VDA approach is tested over the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) site in the summers of 1987 and 1988. The results indicate that the estimated sensible and latent heat fluxes agree fairly well with the corresponding measurements. For FIFE 1987 (1988), the daily sensible and latent heat fluxes estimates have a root-mean-square error of 25.72 W m−2 (27.77 W m−2) and 53.63 W m−2 (48.22 W m−2), respectively. In addition, the ABL height, specific humidity, and potential temperature estimates from the VDA system are in good agreement with those inferred from the radiosondes both in terms of magnitude and diurnal trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of mesoscale sea surface temperature (SST) variations on wind stress and boundary layer winds is examined from coupled ocean--atmosphere numerical simulations and satellite observations of the northern California Current System. Model coupling coefficients relating the divergence and curl of wind stress and wind to downwind and crosswind SST gradients are generally smaller than observed values and vary by a factor of 2 depending on planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, with values larger for smoothed fields on the 0.25° observational grid than for unsmoothed fields on the 12-km model grid. Divergence coefficients are larger than curl coefficients on the 0.25° grid but not on the model grid, consistent with stronger scale dependence for the divergence response than for curl in a spatial cross-spectral analysis. Coupling coefficients for 10-m equivalent neutral stability winds are 30%-50% larger than those for 10-m wind, implying a correlated effect of surface-layer stability variations. Crosswind surface air temperature and SST gradients are more strongly coupled than downwind gradients, while the opposite is true for downwind and crosswind heat flux and SST gradients. Midlevel boundary layer wind coupling coefficients show a reversed response relative to the surface that is predicted by an analytical model; a predicted second reversal with height is not seen in the simulations. The relative values of coupling coefficients are consistent with previous results for the same PBL schemes in the Agulhas Return Current region, but their magnitudes are smaller, likely because of the effect of mean wind on perturbation heat fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model became operational at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2014 but the HRRR's performance over certain regions of the coterminous United States has not been well studied. In the present study, we evaluated how well version 2 of the HRRR, which became operational at NCEP in August 2016, simulates the near-surface meteorological fields and the surface energy balance at two locations in northern Alabama. We evaluated the 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 18-h HRRR forecasts, as well as the HRRR's initial conditions (i.e., the 0-h initial fields) using meteorological and flux observations obtained from two 10-m micrometeorological towers installed near Belle Mina and Cullman, Alabama. During the 8-month model evaluation period, from 1 September 2016 to 30 April 2017, we found that the HRRR accurately simulated the observations of near-surface air and dewpoint temperature (R2 > 0.95). When comparing the HRRR output with the observed sensible, latent, and ground heat flux at both sites, we found that the agreement was weaker (R2 ≈ 0.7), and the root-mean-square errors were much larger than those found for the near-surface meteorological variables. These findings help motivate the need for additional work to improve the representation of surface fluxes and their coupling to the atmosphere in future versions of the HRRR to be more physically realistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A traditional view is that the ocean outside of the tropics responds passively to atmosphere forcing, which implies that air–sea heat fluxes are mainly driven by atmosphere variability. This paper tests this viewpoint using state-of-the-art air–sea turbulent heat flux observational analyses and a climate model run at different resolutions. It is found that in midlatitude ocean frontal zones the variability of air–sea heat fluxes is not predominantly driven by the atmosphere variations but instead is forced by sea surface temperature (SST) variations arising from intrinsic oceanic variability. Meanwhile in most of the tropics and subtropics wind is the dominant driver of heat flux variability, and atmosphere humidity is mainly important in higher latitudes. The predominance of ocean forcing of heat fluxes found in frontal regions occurs on scales of around 700 km or less. Spatially smoothing the data to larger scales results in the traditional atmosphere-driving case, while filtering to retain only small scales of 5° or less leads to ocean forcing of heat fluxes over most of the globe. All observational analyses examined (1° OAFlux; 0.25° J-OFURO3; 0.25° SeaFlux) show this general behavior. A standard resolution (1°) climate model fails to reproduce the midlatitude, small-scale ocean forcing of heat flux: refining the ocean grid to resolve eddies (0.1°) gives a more realistic representation of ocean forcing but the variability of both SST and of heat flux is too high compared to observational analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open-path eddy covariance systems are widely used for measuring the CO2 flux between land and atmosphere. A common problem is that they often yield negative fluxes or physiologically unreasonable CO2 uptake fluxes in the nongrowing season under cold conditions. In this study, a meta-analysis was performed on the eddy flux data from 64 FLUXNET sites and the relationship between the observed CO2 flux and the sensible heat flux was analyzed. In theory, these two fluxes should be independent of each other in cold conditions (air temperature lower than 0°C) when photosynthesis is suppressed. However, the results show that a significant and negative linear relationship existed between these two fluxes at 37 of the sites. The mean linear slope value is −0.008 ± 0.001 µmol m−2 s−1 per W m−2 among the 64 sites analyzed. The slope value was not significantly different among the three gas analyzer models (LI-7500, LI-7500A, IRGASON/EC150) used at these sites, indicating that self-heating may not be the only reason for the apparent wintertime net CO2 uptake. These results suggest a systematic bias toward larger carbon uptakes in the FLUXNET sites that deploy open-path eddy covariance systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the mechanisms causing interannual variability of upper ocean heat content and sea surface temperature (SST) in the southwest Pacific. Using the ECCOv4 ocean reanalysis it is shown that air-sea heat flux and ocean heat transport convergence due to ocean dynamics both contribute to the variability of upper ocean temperatures around New Zealand. The ocean dynamics responsible for the ocean heat transport convergence are investigated. It is shown that SSTs are significantly correlated with the arrival of barotropic Rossby waves estimated from the South Pacific wind stress over the latitudes of New Zealand. Both Argo observations and the ECCOv4 reanalysis show deep isotherms fluctuate coherently around the country. The authors suggest that the depth of the thermocline around New Zealand adjusts to changes in the South Pacific winds, modifies the vertical advection of heat into the upper ocean, and contributes to the interannual variability of SST in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Upscaling point measurements from micrometeorological towers is a challenging task that is important for a variety of applications, for example, in process studies of convection initiation, carbon and energy budget studies, and the improvement of model parameterizations. In the present study, a technique was developed to determine the horizontal variability in sensible heat flux H surrounding micrometeorological towers. The technique was evaluated using 15-min flux observations, as well as measurements of land surface temperature and air temperature obtained from small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) conducted during a one-day measurement campaign. The computed H was found to be comparable to the micrometeorological measurements to within 5-10 W m−2. Furthermore, when comparing H computed using this technique with H determined using large-eddy simulations (LES), differences of <10 W m−2 were typically found. Thus, implementing this technique using observations from sUAS will help determine sensible heat flux variability at horizontal spatial scales larger than can be provided from flux tower measurements alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of the evaporative fraction (EF: the ratio of latent heat flux to the sum of sensible and latent heat fluxes) and its controls is particularly important for accurate estimates of water flux, heat exchange, and ecosystem response to climatic changes. In this study, the biological and environmental controls on monthly EF were evaluated across 81 AmeriFlux sites, mainly in North America, for 2000-12. The land-cover types of these sites include forest, shrubland, grassland, and cropland, and the local climates vary from humid to arid. The results show that vegetation coverage, indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), has the best agreement with EF (site-averaged partial correlation coefficient ρ = 0.53; significance level p < 0.05) because of vegetation transpiration demand. The minimum air temperature is closely related to EF (site-averaged ρ = 0.51; p < 0.05) because of the inhibition of respiratory enzyme activity. Relative humidity, an indicator of surface aridity, shows a significant positive correlation with EF (site-averaged ρ = 0.46; p < 0.05). The impacts of wind speed and diurnal air temperature range on EF depend on land-cover types and are strong over grasslands and cropland. From these findings, empirical methods were established to predict monthly EF using meteorological data and NDVI. Correlation coefficients between EF estimates and observations range from 0.80 to 0.93, with root-mean-square errors varying from 0.09 to 0.12. This study demonstrates the varying controls on EF across different landscapes and enhances understanding of EF and its dynamics under changing climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article tracks the changes and trends of ocean surface heat and momentum fluxes in 2013. Topics discussed include the net heat flux of the ocean surface, the balance of solar radiation, longwave radiation, turbulent latent heat and sensible heat fluxes, and the net heat fluxes produced by the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes project and the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy Systems Fast Longwave and Shortwave Radiative Fluxes project.

Interannual to interdecadal precipitation P, evaporation E, freshwater budget ( E − P), and air-sea net heat flux Q have been correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), eastern Atlantic (EA), eastern Atlantic-western Russia (EA-WR), and Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) climatic indices to explore the influence of atmospheric forcing in the Mediterranean freshwater and heat budget variability. The effect of the MO pattern has similarities with that of the NAO, but MO influence is more intense. On an annual basis, the MO index gives the highest correlation with all the variables considered, and during its negative phase, it exerts a stronger influence than the NAO and is associated with higher P and, especially, enhanced evaporative losses in the Levantine subbasin. The EA pattern does not significantly affect P in the Mediterranean, but a high correlation is found for E and Q from 1979. The EA-WR mode plays a significant role in annual net heat flux since variations in its sign have the potential to induce seesaw variations in the heat budgets of the eastern and western subbasins, as previously found by Josey et al., for wintertime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The actual conditions of mesoscale summer high temperatures (HTs) recorded in the Osaka-Kyoto urban area of Japan were investigated using an observation network. The daytime temperatures observed on 10 HT events in this area were the highest in the southern area of Kyoto [area with no Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) observation sites]. To quantitatively evaluate the formation mechanisms of HT events, a heat budget analysis on an atmospheric column was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results showed that over the HT area the daytime column temperature increased as a result of sensible-heat diffusion generated from the urban surface at the contribution rate of 54% and as a result of the sensible-heat advection and diffusion supplied from the sides and at the top of the column at the rate of 46% of all sensible heat supplied. To clarify previously unreported effects of synoptic-scale winds under typical summer pressure patterns on the HT events, a sensitivity experiment with no surface heat fluxes, backward trajectory analysis, and Euler forward tracer analysis was performed. These analyses yielded the following findings: 1) sensible heat at the synoptic scale and/or mesoscale was transported from the tropics by circulation patterns along the edge of the Pacific high as well as from tropical cyclones that were present in the vicinity of Japan and 2) airflow over the Kii Mountains also contributes to the HT events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal cycle of the heating of the atmosphere is divided into a component due to direct solar absorption in the atmosphere and a component due to the flux of energy from the surface to the atmosphere via latent, sensible, and radiative heat fluxes. Both observations and coupled climate models are analyzed. The vast majority of the seasonal heating of the northern extratropics (78% in the observations and 67% in the model average) is due to atmospheric shortwave absorption. In the southern extratropics, the seasonal heating of the atmosphere is entirely due to atmospheric shortwave absorption in both the observations and the models, and the surface heat flux opposes the seasonal heating of the atmosphere. The seasonal cycle of atmospheric temperature is surface amplified in the northern extratropics and nearly barotropic in the Southern Hemisphere; in both cases, the vertical profile of temperature reflects the source of the seasonal heating. In the northern extratropics, the seasonal cycle of atmospheric heating over land differs markedly from that over the ocean. Over the land, the surface energy fluxes complement the driving absorbed shortwave flux; over the ocean, they oppose the absorbed shortwave flux. This gives rise to large seasonal differences in the temperature of the atmosphere over land and ocean. Downgradient temperature advection by the mean westerly winds damps the seasonal cycle of heating of the atmosphere over the land and amplifies it over the ocean. The seasonal cycle in the zonal energy transport is 4.1 PW. Finally, the authors examine the change in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric heating in 11 models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) due to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide from preindustrial concentrations. The seasonal heating of the troposphere is everywhere enhanced by increased shortwave absorption by water vapor; it is reduced where sea ice has been replaced by ocean, which increases the effective heat storage reservoir of the climate system and thereby reduces the seasonal magnitude of energy fluxes between the surface and the atmosphere. As a result, the seasonal amplitude of temperature increases in the upper troposphere (where atmospheric shortwave absorption increases) and decreases at the surface (where the ice melts). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel method is presented to analytically resolve the terrestrial latent heat flux ( λ E) and conductances (boundary layer gB and surface gS) using net radiation ( RN), ground heat flux ( G), air temperature ( Ta), and relative humidity (RH). This method consists of set of equations where the two unknown internal state variables ( gB and gS) were expressed in terms of the known core variables, combining diffusion equations, the Penman-Monteith equation, the Priestley-Taylor equation, and Bouchet's complementary hypothesis. Estimated λ E is validated with the independent eddy covariance λ E observations over Soil Moisture Experiment 2002 (SMEX-02); the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP) selected sites from FLUXNET and tropics eddy flux, representing four climate zones (tropics, subtropics, temperate, and cold); and multiple biomes. The authors find a RMSE of 23.8-54.6 W m−2 for hourly λ E over SMEX-02 and GCIP and 23.8-29.0 W m−2 for monthly λ E over the FLUXNET and tropics. Observational and modeled evidence in the reduction in annual evaporation ( E) pattern on the order of 33% from 1999 to 2006 was found in central Amazonia. Retrieved gS responded to vapor pressure deficit, measured λE, and gross photosynthesis in a theoretically robust behavior. However, the current scheme [Penman-Monteith-Bouchet-Lhomme (PMBL)] showed some overestimation of λ E in limited soil moisture regimes. PMBL provides similar results when compared with another Priestley-Taylor-based λ E estimation approach [Priestley-Taylor-Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL)] but with the advantage of having the conductances analytically recovered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) represents a new effort with the first guess from a high-resolution coupled system and offers prospects for improved simulation of mesoscale air-sea coupled variability. This study aims to describe the characteristics of ocean-atmosphere covariability associated with tropical instability waves (TIWs) in the Pacific for the CFSR, and to assess how well they agree with in situ and satellite observations. Multiyear daily high-resolution CFSR data are used to describe variability associated with TIWs. Results show that TIW-induced SST variations exhibit pronounced seasonal and interannual variability that are tightly connected with cold tongue variations. The analysis illustrates coherent patterns associated with TIWs, both in the ocean and the atmosphere. Moisture and air temperature maximums are located west of SST maximums, leading to downstream displacement of surface pressure minimums relative to SST maximums. Surface winds accelerate (decelerate) over warm (cold) water, and a thermally direct circulation is created. Significant signals are observed in low-level cloud cover, which are closely in phase with surface wind convergences. The magnitudes of TIW-induced surface wind, surface pressure, and cloud cover perturbations agree well with in situ and satellite observations. Further analysis shows that surface net heat flux perturbations are dominated by latent heat fluxes and have a large negative feedback on TIW SST variability (~40 W m−2 °C−1). Water vapor perturbation is the primary factor contributing to changes in latent heat fluxes, while SST-induced wind perturbation plays a secondary role. The analysis presented here highlights that the CFSR provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the physical mechanisms for the TIWs, as well as their influences on climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulations are presented focusing on the role of temperature inversions in controlling the formation and strength of downslope wind storms. Three mechanisms are examined depending on the relative height of the inversion with respect to the mountain and the stability of vertically propagating mountain waves. For low-level inversions, flows are generated that closely resemble a reduced gravity shallow water hydraulic response with a large vertical displacement of the inversion on the lee side of the mountain. For higher-level inversion cases, simulated flows more closely followed a stratified hydraulic behavior with the inversion acting as a rigid reflective lid. In the third mechanism, downslope winds were forced by a self-induced critical layer located below the inversion height. The presence of the inversion in this case had little effect on the resulting downslope winds. Observations made on the Falkland Islands show that downslope windstorms may preferentially occur in early morning even without synoptic-scale changes in atmospheric structure. Most windstorms on the Falkland Islands generally have a short jet length; rare, longer jet length storms typically occur in conjunction with a strong low-level inversion. Idealized numerical experiments tend to produce a similar response depending on the presence of strong low-level inversion and surface cooling. Results suggest that surface heating can have significant control on the flow response by reducing the low-level inversion strength, or by changing the stratification and wind velocity below the inversion, thereby preventing a strong downslope windstorm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synoptic weather observations from ships throughout the World Ocean have been analyzed to produce a climatology of total cloud cover and the amounts of nine cloud types. About 54 million observations contributed to the climatology, which now covers 55 years from 1954 to 2008. In this work, interannual variations of seasonal cloud amounts are analyzed in 10° grid boxes. Long-term variations O(5-10 yr), coherent across multiple latitude bands, remain present in the updated cloud data. A comparison to coincident data on islands indicates that the coherent variations are probably spurious. An exact cause for this behavior remains elusive. The globally coherent variations are removed from the gridbox time series using a Butterworth filter before further analysis. Before removing the spurious variation, the global average time series of total cloud cover over the ocean shows low-amplitude, long-term variations O(2%%) over the 55-yr span. High-frequency, year-to-year variation is seen O(1%%-2%%). Among the cloud types, the most widespread and consistent relationship is found for the extensive marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds (MSC) over the eastern parts of the subtropical oceans. Substantiating and expanding upon previous work, strong negative correlation is found between MSC and sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern North Pacific, eastern South Pacific, eastern South Atlantic, eastern North Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean west of Australia. By contrast, a positive correlation between cloud cover and SST is seen in the central Pacific. High clouds show a consistent low-magnitude positive correlation with SST over the equatorial ocean. In regions of persistent MSC, time series show decreasing MSC amount. This decrease could be due to further spurious variation within the data. However, the decrease combined with observed increases in SST and the negative correlation between marine stratus and sea surface temperature suggests a positive cloud feedback to the warming sea surface. The observed decrease of MSC has been partly but not completely offset by increasing cumuliform clouds in these regions; a similar decrease in stratiform and increase in cumuliform clouds had previously been seen over land. Interannual variations of cloud cover in the tropics show strong correlation with an ENSO index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric heating over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) enhances the Asian summer monsoon. This study presents a state-of-the-art estimate of the heating components and their total over the TP, with the aid of high-accuracy experimental data, an updated land surface model, and carefully selected satellite data. The new estimate differs from previous estimates in three aspects: 1) different seasonality--the new estimation shows the maximum total heat source occurs in July (the mature period of the monsoon), rather than in the previously reported month of May or June (around the onset of the monsoon), because previous studies greatly overestimated radiative cooling during the monsoon season [[June--August (JJA)]]; 2) different regional pattern--the eastern TP exhibits stronger heating than the western TP in summer, whereas previous studies gave either an opposite spatial pattern because of overestimated sensible heat flux over the western TP or an overall weaker heat source because of overestimated radiative cooling; and 3) different trend--sensible heat, radiative convergence, and the total heat source have decreased since the 1980s, but their weakening trends were overestimated in a recent study. These biases in previous studies are due to fairly empirical methods and data that were not evaluated against experimental data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The asymmetry of the western North Pacific (WNP) low-level atmospheric circulation anomalies between the El Niño and La Niña mature winter is examined. An anomalous WNP cyclone (WNPC) center during La Niña tends to shift westward relative to an anomalous WNP anticyclone (WNPAC) center during El Niño. Two factors may contribute to this asymmetric response. The first factor is the longitudinal shifting of El Niño and La Niña anomalous heating. The composite negative precipitation anomaly center during La Niña is located farther to the west of the composite positive precipitation anomaly center during El Niño. The westward shift of the heating may further push the WNPC westward relative to the position of the WNPAC. The second factor is the amplitude asymmetry of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the WNP, namely, the amplitude of local cold SSTA during El Niño is greater than that of warm SSTA during La Niña. The asymmetry of SSTA is originated from the asymmetric SSTA tendencies during the ENSO developing summer. Although both precipitation and surface wind anomalies are approximately symmetric, the surface latent heat flux anomalies are highly asymmetric over the key WNP region, where the climate mean zonal wind speed is small. Both the anomalous westerly during El Niño and the anomalous easterly during La Niña in the region lead to an enhanced surface evaporation, strengthening (weakening) the enhancement of the cold (warm) SSTA in situ during El Niño (La Niña). The asymmetry of the SSTA in the WNP is further amplified due to anomalous wind differences between El Niño and La Niña in their mature winter. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that both factors contribute to the asymmetry between the WNPAC and WNPC. The asymmetric circulation in the WNP contributes to the asymmetry of temporal evolutions between El Niño and La Niña. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A climate model must include an accurate surface physics scheme in order to examine the interactions between the land and atmosphere. Given an increase in the surface radiative forcing, the sensitivity of latent heat flux to available energy plays an important role in determining the energy budget and has a significant impact on the response of surface temperature. The Penman–Monteith equation is used to construct a theoretical framework for evaluating the climatology of evapotranspiration and the sensitivity of latent heat flux to available energy. Regional Climate Model version 3 coupled to Integrated Biosphere Simulator (RegCM3–IBIS); RegCM3 with its native land surface model, Biosphere–Atmosphere Transfer Scheme 1e (RegCM3–BATS1e); and Flux Network (FLUXNET) micrometeorological tower observations are compared and contrasted using the developed methodology. RegCM3–IBIS and RegCM3–BATS1e simulate the observed sensitivity of latent heat flux to available energy reasonably well during the summer on average; however, there are significant variations in the monthly values. Additional information provided by the physically based Penman–Monteith framework is employed for identifying deficiencies and guiding improvements in models, allowing calibration of both the climatology of evapotranspiration and the sensitivity of latent heat flux to available energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the impact of air–sea coupling using a coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling system consisting of the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System as the atmospheric component and the Regional Ocean Modeling System as the oceanic component. Numerical experiments for advection and steam fog events were carried out to clarify the modulation of the formation and dissipation of sea fogs by the air–sea temperature difference (air temperature minus sea surface temperature) and the atmospheric stability. The coupled simulation showed that advection fog is obviously controlled by low-level atmospheric stability and downward latent heat flux with oceanic cooling through air–sea coupling. In particular, air–sea coupling stabilizes the low-level atmosphere at the dissipation stage, and then suppresses vertical mixing, which retards the dissipation of advection fog. In the case of a steam fog event, the upward turbulent heat fluxes are increased significantly from the formation time to the mature time. A decrease in sea surface temperature cools the low-level atmosphere, which increases the condensation rate and low-level atmospheric stability, eventually retarding the dissipation of steam fog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Part I the authors have shown that heating sources in spring over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and in particular the sensible heat flux (SHF), exhibit a significant weakening trend since the mid-1980s that is induced mainly by decreased surface wind speed. The possible reason of such a change is further investigated in Part II by analyzing historical observations and the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis. The steady declining trend in the surface wind speed over the TP after the 1970s arises mainly from the zonal component. Since the mean altitude of the TP is about 600 hPa and the surface flow is controlled by the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) for most parts of the year, the substantial tropospheric warming in the mid- and high latitudes to the north of the plateau results in a decrease of the meridional pressure gradient in the subtropics. As a result, the EASWJ and the surface winds over the TP are decelerated. Moreover, changes of the general circulation in the twentieth century simulated by 16 coupled climate models driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings are examined. Intercomparison results suggest that sulfate aerosol indirect effects and ozone may be important in reproducing the weakening trend in EASWJ. Although nearly half of the models can successfully reproduce the observed trends in the EASWJ during the last two decades, there is an obvious spread in simulation of the spatial patterns of twentieth-century tropospheric temperatures, suggesting significant room still exists for improvement of the current state-of-the-art coupled climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A climate model is used to study the climatic impact of the stress exerted on the ocean by the atmosphere. When this stress is set to zero everywhere, the climate becomes much colder, with global-mean near-surface air temperature dropping from 14.8° to 6.1°C. The largest temperature decrease occurs in high latitudes, where sea ice advances equatorward to 40° of latitude. Many of these changes are induced by the changes in the oceanic circulation. In particular, with momentum flux set to zero, the meridional transport of buoyancy in the ocean, including that fraction often associated with the buoyancy-driven circulation, essentially vanishes and, hence, so does much of the surface heat flux. Vertical transport of buoyancy in the ocean is also strongly affected. In addition, the model suggests that the flux of momentum to the ocean has a profound indirect influence on the transport of latent heat. However, the total radiative flux entering the planet at low and midlatitudes does not change much. Instead, the net energy transport across 40°S increases, whereas that across 40°N decreases. The poleward energy transport in the atmosphere increases at midlatitudes in both hemispheres, whereas the oceanic heat transport decreases most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere. The climate becomes colder in both hemispheres, which is not easy to infer from the meridional transport of energy either by the climate system as a whole or by its individual components. Furthermore, the model suggests that it is the wind stress driving the midlatitude oceans—that is, where the oceanic heat transport accounts for only a very tiny fraction of the total poleward energy transport by the climate system, which is of more importance for maintaining the mean position of sea ice edge and, hence, much of the global climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mesoscale water vapor heterogeneities in the boundary layer are studied within the context of the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002). A significant portion of the water vapor variability in the IHOP_2002 occurs at the mesoscale, with the spatial pattern and the magnitude of the variability changing from day to day. On 14 June 2002, an atypical mesoscale gradient is observed, which is the reverse of the climatological gradient over this area. The factors causing this water vapor variability are investigated using complementary platforms (e.g., aircraft, satellite, and in situ) and models. The impact of surface flux heterogeneities and atmospheric variability are evaluated separately using a 1D boundary layer model, which uses surface fluxes from the High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) and early-morning atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles from a mesoscale model. This methodology, based on the use of robust modeling components, allows the authors to tackle the question of the nature of the observed mesoscale variability. The impact of horizontal advection is inferred from a careful analysis of available observations. By isolating the individual contributions to mesoscale water vapor variability, it is shown that the observed moisture variability cannot be explained by a single process, but rather involves a combination of different factors: the boundary layer height, which is strongly controlled by the surface buoyancy flux, the surface latent heat flux, the early-morning heterogeneity of the atmosphere, horizontal advection, and the radiative impact of clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have described the impacts of wind stress variations in the eastern Pacific on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. However, these studies have usually focused on individual El Niño events and typically have not considered impacts on La Niña—the cold phase of the ENSO cycle. This paper examines effects of wind stress and heat flux forcing on interannual SST variations in the eastern equatorial Pacific from sensitivity tests using an ocean general circulation model over the period 1980–2002. Results indicate that in the Niño-3 region (5°N–5°S, 90°–150°W) a zonal wind stress anomaly of 0.01 N m-2 leads to about 1°C SST anomaly and that air–sea heat fluxes tend to damp interannual SST anomalies generated by other physical processes at a rate of about 40 W m-2 (°C)-1. These results systematically quantify expectations from previous event specific numerical model studies that local forcing in the eastern Pacific can significantly affect the evolution of both warm and cold phases of the ENSO cycle. The results are also consistent with a strictly empirical analysis that indicates that a wind stress anomaly of 0.01 N m-2 leads to ∼1°C SST anomaly in the Niño-3 region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors focus on Heinrich events and the question of whether the arrest and restart of convection can explain the associated sudden changes in oceanic and atmospheric temperature. For this purpose, a new (mixed) dynamical-box model is developed in which the ocean and atmosphere communicate via both Ekman layers and convection. The conservation of heat, salt, volume flux, and a “convection condition” yields a system of algebraic equations that are solved analytically. As expected, it is found that as the freshwater flux increases, the convective ocean temperature decreases. The heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere, the transport of the oceanic meridional overturning cell (MOC), and the corresponding atmospheric flow generated by the heat flux from the ocean all decrease. However, the outgoing air temperature increases with increasing freshwater flux. This counterintuitive increase is because a decreased latent and sensible heat flux (to a humid atmosphere) means a reduced temperature difference between the warmer ocean and the cooler atmosphere, implying a cooler ocean and warmer atmosphere. For each wind speed, there is a critical freshwater flux beyond which the convection collapses and the temperatures of both the ocean and the air plunge because equatorial water is no longer flowing northward to replace the frigid northern waters. The above points to a potentially new instability process that was probably active during glaciation periods—when ice and snow are abundant, even the smallest amount of freshwater flux will cause local warming which, in turn, will cause increased melting, resulting in an ever-increased freshwater flux until the critical flux is reached and the MOC collapses. The model suggests that switching convection on and off changed the glacial ocean temperature by 4°C and the glacial air temperature by 12.5°C, both consistent with the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP II) ice core record and the Centre Européen de Recherche et d’Enseignement des Géosciences de l’Environnement (CEREGE) alkenone record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of land surface–related processes and feedbacks during the record-breaking 2003 European summer heat wave is explored with a regional climate model. All simulations are driven by lateral boundary conditions and sea surface temperatures from the ECMWF operational analysis and 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), thereby prescribing the large-scale circulation. In particular, the contribution of soil moisture anomalies and their interactions with the atmosphere through latent and sensible heat fluxes is investigated. Sensitivity experiments are performed by perturbing spring soil moisture in order to determine its influence on the formation of the heat wave. A multiyear regional climate simulation for 1970–2000 using a fixed model setup is used as the reference period. A large precipitation deficit together with early vegetation green-up and strong positive radiative anomalies in the months preceding the extreme summer event contributed to an early and rapid loss of soil moisture, which exceeded the multiyear average by far. The exceptionally high temperature anomalies, most pronounced in June and August 2003, were initiated by persistent anticyclonic circulation anomalies that enabled a dominance of the local heat balance. In this experiment the hottest phase in early August is realistically simulated despite the absence of an anomaly in total surface net radiation. This indicates an important role of the partitioning of net radiation in latent and sensible heat fluxes, which is to a large extent controlled by soil moisture. The lack of soil moisture strongly reduced latent cooling and thereby amplified the surface temperature anomalies. The evaluation of the experiments with perturbed spring soil moisture shows that this quantity is an important parameter for the evolution of European heat waves. Simulations indicate that without soil moisture anomalies the summer heat anomalies could have been reduced by around 40% in some regions. Moreover, drought conditions are revealed to influence the tropospheric circulation by producing a surface heat low and enhanced ridging in the midtroposphere. This suggests a positive feedback mechanism between soil moisture, continental-scale circulation, and temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The trends of the surface water and energy budget components in the Mississippi River basin from 1948 to 2004 are investigated using a combination of hydrometeorological observations and observation-constrained simulations of the land surface conditions using the latest version of the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3). The atmospheric forcing data for the CLM3 were constructed by adding the intramonthly variations from the 6-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis to observation-based analyses of monthly precipitation, surface air temperature, and cloud cover. The model-based analysis suggests that, for the surface water budget, the observed increase in basin-averaged precipitation is compensated by increases in both runoff and evapotranspiration. For the surface energy budget, the decrease of net shortwave radiation associated with observed increases in cloudiness is compensated by decreases in both net longwave radiation and sensible heat flux, while the latent heat flux increases in association with wetter soil conditions. Both the simulated surface water and energy budgets support the view that evapotranspiration has increased in the Mississippi River basin from 1948 to 2004. Sensitivity experiments show that the precipitation change dominates the evapotranspiration trend, while the temperature and solar radiation changes have only small effects. Large spatial variations within the Mississippi River basin and the contiguous United States are also found. However, the increased evapotranspiration is ubiquitous despite spatial variations in hydrometeorology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discharge and recharge of the warm water volume (WWV) above the 20°C isotherm in an equatorial Pacific Ocean box extending across the Pacific from 156°E to the eastern ocean boundary between latitudes 5°S and 5°N are key variables in ENSO dynamics. A formula linking WWV anomalies, zonally integrated wind stress curl anomalies along the northern and southern edges of the box, and flow into the western end of the box is derived and tested using monthly data since 1993. Consistent with previous work, a WWV balance can only be achieved if the 20°C isotherm surface is not a material surface; that is, warm water can pass through it. For example, during El Niño, part of the WWV anomaly entering the box is cooled so that it is less than 20°C and therefore passes out of the bottom of the box, the 20°C isotherm surface. The observations suggest that the anomalous volume passing through the 20°C isotherm is approximately the same as T ′W, the anomalous WWV entering the western end of the box. Therefore the observed WWV anomaly can be regarded as being driven by the anomalous wind stress curl along the northern and southern edges of the box. The curl anomaly changes the WWV both by divergent meridional flow at the edges of the box and vortex stretching; that is, the Sverdrup balance does not hold in the upper ocean. A typical amplitude for the rate of change of WWV for the 5°S–5°N box is 9.6 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s-1). The wind stress curl anomaly and the transport anomaly into the western end of the box are highly correlated with the El Niño index Niño-3.4 [the average sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the region 5°S–5°N, 170°–120°W] and Niño-3.4 leads minus the WWV anomaly by one-quarter of a cycle. Based on the preceding results, a simple discharge/recharge coupled ENSO model is derived. Only water warmer than about 27.5°–28°C can give rise to deep atmospheric convection, so, unlike past discharge/recharge oscillator models, the west-central rather than eastern equatorial SSTAs are emphasized. The model consists of two variables: T ′, the SSTA averaged over the region of strong ENSO air–sea interaction in the west-central Pacific equatorial strip 5°S–5°N, 156°E–140°W and D′, the 20°C isotherm depth anomaly averaged over the same region. As in the observations, T ′ lags D′ by one-quarter of a cycle; that is, ∂T ′/∂t = νD′ for some positive constant ν. Physically, when D′ > 0, the thermocline is deeper and warmer water is entrained through the base of the mixed layer, the anomalous heat flux causing ∂T ′/∂t > 0. Also, when D′ > 0, the eastward current anomaly is greater than zero and warm water is advected into the region, again causing ∂T ′/∂t > 0. Opposite effects occur for D′ < 0. A second relationship between T ′ and D′ results because the water is warm enough that T ′ causes deep atmospheric convection anomalies that drive the wind stress curl anomalies that change the heat storage ∂D′/∂t. The atmosphere responds essentially instantly to the T ′ forcing and the curl causes a discharge of WWV during El Niño (T ′ > 0) and recharge during La Niña (T ′ < 0), so ∂D′/∂t = -μT ′ for some positive constant μ. The two relationships between T ′ and D′ result in a harmonic oscillator with period 2π/νμ ≈ 51 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of the natural multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) on European climate is investigated using a simulation with the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM). The results show that Atlantic MOC fluctuations, which go along with changes in the northward heat transport, in turn affect European climate. Additionally, ensemble predictability experiments with ECHAM5/MPI-OM show that the probability density functions of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic/European region are affected by the multidecadal variability of the large-scale oceanic circulation. Thus, some useful decadal predictability may exist in the Atlantic/European sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of atmospheric spherical curvature and refraction and their impact on radiative transfer have been studied. It is shown that formulas employed in GCMs for atmospheric curvature and refraction underestimate the effect of effective solar pathlength. A new parameterization is therefore proposed. It is emphasized that the atmospheric curvature effect on radiative transfer is a localized problem with height dependence. A method corresponding to the local effective pathlength factor is proposed. This rigorous scheme enables variations in both the pathlength and the gaseous amount along a solar direct beam to be accurately evaluated in the radiative transfer process. The results of the rigorous scheme can be used as the benchmark to the proposed parameterizations for the effective pathlength factor. It is found that the new parameterization proposed in this note has better results in flux and heating rates when compared to other parameterizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some 50 separate high-resolution profiles of small-scale turbulence defined by the energy dissipation rate (ℇ), horizontal wind speed, and temperature from near the surface, through the nighttime stable boundary layer (SBL), and well into the residual layer are used to compare the various definitions of SBL height during nighttime stable conditions. These profiles were obtained during postmidnight periods on three separate nights using the Tethered Lifting System (TLS) during the Cooperative Atmosphere–Surface Exchange Study (CASES-99) campaign in east-central Kansas, October 1999. Although the number of profiles is insufficient to make any definitive conclusions, the results suggest that, under most conditions, the boundary layer top can be reasonably estimated in terms of a very significant decrease in the energy dissipation rate (i.e., the mixing height) with height. In the majority of instances this height lies slightly below the height of a pronounced minimum in wind shear and slightly above a maximum in N 2, where N is the Brunt–Väisälä frequency. When combined with flux measurements and vertical velocity variance data obtained from the nearby 55-m tower, the results provide additional insights into SBL processes, even when the boundary layer, by any definition, extends to heights well above the top of the tower. Both the TLS profiles and tower data are then used for preliminary high-resolution studies into various categories of SBL structure, including the so-called upside-down boundary layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simple thermodynamic parameterization based on a modified version of the Whiteman and McKee inversion destruction model is presented to simulate the evolution of vertical temperature structure during the inversion breakup period in idealized valleys under clear, undisturbed weather conditions. The proposed method adopts simplified semiempirical parameterizations of radiation and surface energy budgets at the valley floor and sidewalls and an empirical scheme for the partitioning of energy in the valley atmosphere, eliminating the need for selecting arbitrary values for the adjustable model parameters. The model accurately simulates the changes with time of the height of the inversion top and the depth of the convective boundary layer during the breakup of nocturnal temperature inversions in a wide range of valley topography. The theoretical estimates were validated and compared with dynamical model predictions and actual measurements. Because of its simplicity and its fair agreement with observations, the proposed method may be useful in applications in boundary layer, air pollution, and complex terrain meteorology. It is recognized that more work is necessary before the validity of the suggested procedure can be fully established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The factors that affect the atmospheric energy budget approach used in the thermodynamic valley inversion destruction model of Whiteman and McKee are investigated theoretically. The height at which the sinking inversion top meets the rising convective boundary layer to destroy valley inversions can be uniquely determined by the topographic characteristics of the valley and an adjustable model parameter, relating to the fraction of sensible heat flux going to convective boundary layer growth, through a simple parabolic relationship. The time required to break a temperature inversion can be expressed with very good approximation as a simple power-law function of the topographic parameters and the fraction of extraterrestrial solar flux that is partitioned to sensible heat flux in the valley atmosphere. The theoretical estimates compare very favorably to predictions from the bulk thermodynamic model of Whiteman and McKee. A new approach to handle time-dependent sensible heat fluxes is outlined. The paper ends with recommendations for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]