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Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to infer species–environment relationships, predict spatial distributions and characterise species' environmental niches. While the importance of space and spatial scales is widely acknowledged in SDM applications, temporal components of the niche are rarely addressed. We discuss how phenology and demographic stages affect model inference in plant SDMs. Ignoring conspicuousness and timing of phenological stages may bias niche estimates through increased observer bias, while ignoring stand age may bias niche estimates through temporal mismatches with environmental variables, especially during times of rapid global warming. We present different methods to consider phenology and demographic stages in plant SDMs, including the selection of causal, spatiotemporally explicit predictors and the calibration of stage‐specific SDMs. Based on a case study with citizen science data, we illustrate how spatiotemporal SDMs provide deeper insights on the coincidence of range and phenological shifts under climate change. The proliferation of digitally available biodiversity and citizen science data increasingly allows considering time explicitly in SDMs. This offers a more mechanistic understanding of plant distributions, and more robust predictions under global change, especially if the reporting of phenological stages and age is facilitated and promoted by relevant data portals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Faced with environmental changes, plants may either move to track their ancestral niches or evolve to adapt to new niches. Vitaceae, the grape family, has evolved diverse adaptive traits facilitating a global expansion in wide-ranging habitats, making it ideal for investigating transition between move and evolve strategies and exploring the underlying mechanisms. Here we inferred the patterns of biogeographic diversification and trait evolution in Vitaceae based on a robust phylogeny with dense sampling including 495 species (~52% of Vitaceae species). Vitaceae probably originated from Asia-the diversity centre of extant genera and the major source of dispersals. Boundaries of the Eocene, Oligocene and Miocene were identified as turning points in shifting strategies. A significant decrease in move strategy was identified during the Oligocene, followed by increases in move and evolve. After the Miocene, evolve began to dominate, during which increased niche opportunities and key trait innovations played important roles., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Simple Summary: Trachycarpus nanus is a national, second-class, rare and endangered plant in China, and a plant species endemic to Yunnan. This species has a high medicinal, ecological, and scientific value, but it is currently on the verge of extinction. Therefore, it is urgent to learn its extinction risk under global warming. We predict its multi-temporal distribution pattern based on the optimized MaxEnt model. The results show that precipitation is the most important factor. In the future, drastic climatic changes and human disturbances may lead to the extinction of this species, so it is necessary to strengthen the protection of this species using specific strategies. Climate change affects the geographical distribution of plant species. Rare Trachycarpus nanus with a narrow distribution range, high medicinal value and extremely small population is facing increasing extinction risks under global climate change. In this study, 96 recorded occurrences and 23 environmental factors are used to predict the potential suitable area of T. nanus based on the optimized MaxEnt (3.4.4) model and ArcGIS (10.7) software. The results show that when the parameters are FC = LQ and RM = 1, the MaxEnt model is optimal and AUC = 0.946. The distribution patterns were predicted in the past, present, and four future phases, i.e., 2021–2040 (2030), 2041–2060 (2050), 2061–2080 (2070), and 2081–2100 (2090). The main factors are the annual precipitation (bio12), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), temperature seasonality (bio4), precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16), and isothermality (bio3). The potential distribution of T. nanus is primarily concentrated in central Chuxiong, encompassing a total potential suitable area of 5.65 × 104 km2. In historical periods, the total habitat area is smaller than that in the present. In the future, the potential suitable area is generally increased. The centroid analysis shows that T. nanus will move to a high-altitude area and to the southeast. But its dispersal capacity may not keep up with the climate change rate. Therefore, additional protection sites for this species should be appropriately established and the habitat connectivity should be enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Many plant species are predicted to migrate poleward in response to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to quantify future suitable habitats, but they often neglect soil properties, despite the importance of soil for plant fitness. As soil properties often change along latitudinal gradients, higher‐latitude soils might be more or less suitable than average conditions within the current ranges of species, thereby accelerating or slowing potential poleward migration.In this study, we built three SDMs – one with only climate predictors, one with only soil predictors, and one with both – for each of 1870 plant species in Eastern North America, in order to investigate the relative importance of soil properties in determining plant distributions and poleward shifts under climate change.While climate variables were the most important predictors, soil properties also had a substantial influence on continental‐scale plant distributions. Under future climate scenarios, models including soil predicted much smaller northward shifts in distributions than climate‐only models (c. 40% reduction).Our findings strongly suggest that high‐latitude soils are likely to impede ongoing plant migration, and they highlight the necessity of incorporating soil properties into models and predictions for plant distributions and migration under environmental change. See also the Commentary on this article by Zettlemoyer, 241: 5–6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the region with the richest biodiversity and the most important ecological barrier function at high altitudes, are highly sensitive to global change, and wetland plants, which are important indicators of wetland ecosystem structure and function, are also threatened by wetland degradation. Therefore, a comprehensive study of changes in the geographical distribution pattern of plant diversity, as well as species loss and turnover of wetlands in the QTP in the context of global climate change is of great importance for the conservation and restoration of wetland ecosystems in the QTP. In this study, species turnover and loss of 395 endemic wetland plants of the QTP were predicted based on the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenarios. The results showed that there were interspecific differences in the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of species, and that most endemic wetland plants would experience range contraction. Under the climate change scenarios, the loss of suitable wetland plant habitat is expected to occur mainly in parts of the southern, north-central and north-western parts of the plateau, while the gain is mainly concentrated in parts of the western Sichuan Plateau, the Qilian Mountains, the Three Rivers Source Region and the northern Tibetan Plateau. Overlaying the analysis of priority protected areas with the established protected areas in the QTP has resulted in the following conservation gaps: the eastern Himalayan region, midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the transition zone between the northern Tibetan Plateau and the Hengduan Mountains, Minshan-Qionglai mountain, Anyemaqen Mountains (southeast) to Bayankala (southeast) mountains, the southern foothills of the Qilian Mountains and the northern Tibetan Plateau region. In the future, the study of wetland plant diversity in the QTP and the optimisation of protected areas should focus on the conservation gaps. This study is of great importance for the study and conservation of wetland plant diversity in the QTP, and also provides a scientific basis for predicting the response of wetland plants to climate change in the QTP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Barringtonia racemosa (L.) Spreng. (Lecythidaceae), a crucial species in mangrove ecosystems, is facing endangerment primarily due to habitat loss. To address this issue, research is imperative to identify suitable conservation habitats for the endangered B. racemosa within mangrove ecosystems. The utilization of the optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model has been instrumental in predicting potential suitable regions based on global distribution points and environmental variables under current and future climates conditions. The study revealed that the potential distribution area of B. racemosa closely aligns with its existing range with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) greater than 0.95. The Jackknife, AUC, percent contribution (PC), and permutation importance (PI) tests were employed alongside the optimized MaxEnt model to examine the influence of environmental variables on the distribution of B. racemosa. The primary factors identified as significant predictors of B. racemosa distribution included the average temperature of the ocean surface (Temperature), average salinity of the ocean surface (Salinity), precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (Bio4), and isothermality (Bio3). Currently, the habitat range of B. racemosa is predominantly found in tropical and subtropical coastal regions near the equator. The total suitable habitat area measures 246.03 km2, with high, medium, low, and unsuitable areas covering 3.90 km2, 8.57 km2, 16.94 km2, and 216.63 km2, respectively. These areas represent 1.58%, 3.48%, 6.88%, and 88.05% of the total habitat area, respectively. The potential distribution area of B. racemosa demonstrated significant variations under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), particularly in Asia, Africa, and Oceania. Both low and high suitable areas experienced a slight increase in distribution. In summary, the research suggests that B. racemosa primarily flourishes in coastal regions of tropical and subtropical areas near the equator, with temperature and precipitation playing a significant role in determining its natural range. This study offers important implications for the preservation and control of B. racemosa amidst habitat degradation and climate change threats. Through a comprehensive understanding of the specific habitat needs of B. racemosa and the implementation of focused conservation measures, efforts can be made to stabilize and rejuvenate its populations in their natural environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential distribution of crops will be impacted by climate change, but there is limited research on potential wheat distributions under specific global warming targets. This study employed the Maxent model to predict the potential distribution of wheat under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets based on data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) multimodel ensemble, and the effect of global warming on wheat planting suitability was analyzed. Our results indicated global warming would significantly change wheat planting suitability. Over half of the areas experienced changes in wheat planting suitability under two warming targets, and the effect became more pronounced with increasing temperatures. Additionally, global warming might promote wheat planting in more regions. The area with an increase in wheat planting suitability was observed to be 9% higher than those experiencing a decrease on average. Moreover, global warming could exacerbate the disparity between global wheat supply and demand in countries/regions. Traditional wheat-producing countries/regions are poised to benefit from the warming effects of climate change, while less developed and wheat import-dependent countries/regions may face greater challenges in achieving wheat self-sufficiency. To address this potential challenge, the promotion and inter-regional exchange of agronomic technologies, and the development of more rational trade standards are urgently needed. Since socioeconomic factors have a significant impact on wheat cultivation, further investigation is required to determine how the wheat planting distribution may change in the future under the combined impact of climate change, supply-demand relationship, and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As plant distribution and performance are determined by both environmental and genetic factors, clarifying the contribution of these two factors is a key for understanding plant adaptation and predicting their distribution under ongoing global warming. Betula ermanii is an ideal species for such research because of its wide distribution across diverse environments. Stomatal density and size are crucial traits that plants undergo changes in to adapt to different environments as these traits directly influence plant photosynthesis and transpiration. In this study, we conducted a multi‐location common garden experiment using B. ermanii to (1) clarify the contribution of both environmental and genetic factors to the variation in stomatal density and size of B. ermanii, (2) demonstrate the differences in the plasticity of stomatal density and size among B. ermanii populations, and (3) understand how stomatal density and size of B. ermanii would respond to increased temperature and changing precipitation patterns. Genetic factors played a more significant role in stomatal size than environmental factors, suggesting that B. ermanii struggles to adjust its stomatal size in response to a changing environment. Our results also revealed a positive correlation between stomatal size plasticity and original habitat suitability, indicating that in B. ermanii populations in harsh environments exhibit lower adaptability to environmental shifts. Although stomatal density and size of B. ermanii showed the significant responses to increased temperature and shifting precipitation patterns, the response ranges of stomatal density and size to the environmental factors varied among populations. Our findings highlighted the interplay between genetic and environmental factors in determining the intraspecific variation in stomatal density and size in B. ermanii. This indicated that certain populations of B. ermanii exhibit limited stomatal plasticity and adaptability, which could directly affect photosynthesis and transpiration, suggesting potential population‐specific fitness implications for B. ermanii under future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study aims to determine the current distribution areas of Fagus orientalis Lipsky and the changes in suitable distribution areas due to global climate change within the borders of Kastamonu Forest Regional Directorate of Forestry. In the present study, the current suitable distribution areas of Fagus orientalis and the suitable distribution areas in the years 2040, 2070, and 2100 according to socioeconomic pathway 126, socioeconomic pathway 370, and socioeconomic pathway 585 scenarios were determined. The study results indicate that the suitable distribution areas of Fagus orientalis populations in Kastamonu will change depending on the effects of climate change and that the change will be in the form of an increase in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains (HDM) are recognized as two global biodiversity hotspots, harboring the world's richest alpine flora. However, to what extent the distribution of alpine plants here is affected by climate change remains largely unknown. Bergenia (Saxifragaceae) are perennial medicinal herbs mainly distributed in the Himalaya-HDM region. In this study, we used bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios to assess the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of three Bergenia (Saxifragaceae) species. Our results revealed that the geographical distribution of the studied Bergenia species is primarily influenced by precipitation and elevation. By 2090, the three Bergenia species are expected to show contrasting range changes. The western Himalayan alpine species Bergenia stracheyi is expected to expand its range with 21.93 and 17.36% under the optimistic (SSP1-2.6) and moderate (SSP2-4.5) climate change scenario, respectively, while its distribution will shrink by 5.26% under the pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5). The Himalayan mid-elevation species B. ciliata is expected to expand its range from 142.42 to 157.14%. In contrast, the distribution range of the east Himalaya-HDM alpine species B. purpurascens is expected to shrink with 34.88 to 47.24%, with most of the habitats in the southeast chains of the HDM at lower elevation summits being lost. In addition, all three Bergenia species are projected to shift their ranges to higher elevations in response to temperature increases. Overall, we conclude that alpine plants may be more vulnerable to climate change than their congeners at lower elevations, supporting the "nowhere to go" hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dysosma versipellis is an ethnobotanical plant that has been classified as a Class II protected endangered plant in China due to habitat destruction in recent years. Studying the impact of climate change on the distribution of wild plant resources is of great significance for the sustainable utilization of D. versipellis resources. In this study, distribution information of 104 D. versipellis samples, 19 climate variables, and two periods under two future climate scenarios were collected. By combining the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, the potential distribution of D. versipellis under present and future climates, as well as the important climate variables affecting its distribution, were predicted. The results showed that the Maxent model had good predictive performance (AUC > 0.9) with high accuracy and reliability. The key climate variables for D. versipellis included annual precipitation (1054.8~1820.9 mm), mean diurnal range (6.2~8.2°C), precipitation of the wettest quarter (486.2~1071.5 mm), mean temperature of the driest quarter (4.4~14.7; 15.1~16.1°C, and temperature seasonality (511.6~578.6; 683.7~828.5). The highly suitable areas for D. versipellis were mainly distributed in Guizhou, western and southern Hunan, western Hubei, northeastern and southeastern Chongqing, northeastern and southeastern Sichuan, northern and southwestern Guangxi, northeastern and southeastern Yunnan, northwestern and eastern Jiangxi, southern Zhejiang, northern Fujian, and southern Taiwan. Under future climate change, the suitable areas for D. versipellis are projected to gradually shift towards Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise: Snow is an important environmental factor affecting plant distribution. Past changes in snowfall regimes may have controlled the demographies of snow‐dependent plants. However, our knowledge of changes in the distribution and demographies of such plants is limited because of the lack of fossil records. Methods: Population genetic and landscape genetic analyses were used to investigate the response of population dynamics of Arnica mallotopus (Asteraceae)—a plant confined to heavy‐snow areas of Japan—to changes in snowfall regimes from the Last Glacial Period to the Holocene. Results: The population genetic analysis suggested that the four geographic lineages diverged during the Last Glacial Period. The interaction between reduced snowfall and lower temperatures during this period likely triggered population isolation in separate refugia. Subpopulation differentiation in the northern group was lower than in the southern group. Our ecological niche model predicted that the current distribution was patchy in the southern region; that is, the populations were isolated by topologically flat and climatically unsuitable lowlands. The landscape genetic analysis suggested that areas with little snowfall acted as barriers to the Holocene expansion of species distribution and continued limiting gene flow between local populations. Conclusions: These findings indicate that postglacial population responses vary among regions and are controlled by environmental and geographic factors. Thus, changes in snowfall regime played a major role in shaping the distribution and genetic structure of the snow‐dependent plant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Davidia involucrata Baill. 1871 (D. involucrata), as a tertiary relict plant unique to China, is a national Class I protected plant with high economic value. Oil extracted from its seeds and peels can be used for both consumption and industrial purposes. It has become a popular income-earning export tree in China because of its graceful posture and beautiful white bracts. Climate change affects the distribution of the species' potential habitat areas. Thus, studying its natural distribution pattern and future potential habitat distribution changes has great significance for the sustainable resource utilization and biodiversity conservation of D. involucrata. Here, we employed the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software to predict the current and future (the 2050s and 2070s) potential habitats of D. involucrata via 130 species distribution records and 37 environmental variables. Meanwhile, we used the jackknife method to assess the importance of environmental factors. Our results showed the following: (1) When the RM = 4 and FC = LQHPT, the MaxEnt model exhibited the lowest complexity and overfitting degree while achieving high model prediction accuracy. The area under the curve (AUC) value of the simulated training was 0.958, indicating an excellent forecast. (2) Under the current climate scenario, D. involucrata was mainly concentrated in eastern Sichuan, western Hubei, northern Guizhou, and northwestern Hunan, with an area of 98.02 × 104 km2. (3) The precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18, 30%), mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9, 24.4%), annual mean radiation (Bio20, 14.6%), and elevation (ele, 12.7%) were the main environmental factors affecting its habitat distribution; the t contribution was 82.1%. (4) Under different future climate scenarios, the potential habitat area of D. involucrata decreased overall. Compared with the current climate scenario, the areas of potential habitats gradually decreased in both the 2050s and 2070s under the ssp126 and ssp585 climate scenarios but decreased in the 2050s and then increased in the 2070s under the ssp370 climate scenario. Therefore, it is of great significance to track and monitor the existing population or community on the basis of the possible changes in its distribution area. Moreover, the artificial breeding of its seedlings should be considered in the future to improve the quality of its germplasm resources. In summary, our findings can provide a scientific understanding of D. involucrata distribution in China and are conducive to conservation and utilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human-induced climate change modifies plant species distribution, reorganizing ecologically suitable habitats for invasive species. In this study, we identified the environmental factors that are important for the spread of Calyptocarpus vialis, an emerging invasive weed in the northwestern Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), along with possible habitats of the weed under current climatic scenarios and potential range expansion under several representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using MaxEnt niche modeling. The prediction had a high AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.894 ± 0.010 and a remarkable correlation between the test and expected omission rates. BIO15 (precipitation seasonality; 38.8%) and BIO1 (annual mean temperature; 35.7%) had the greatest impact on the probable distribution of C. vialis, followed by elevation (11.7%) and landcover (6.3%). The findings show that, unlike the current situation, "high" and "very high" suitability areas would rise while less-suited habitats would disappear. All RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) indicate the expansion of C. vialis in "high" suitability areas, but RCP 4.5 predicts contraction, and RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 predict expansion in "very high" probability areas. The current distribution of C. vialis is 21.59% of the total area of the state, with "medium" to "high" invasion suitability, but under the RCP 8.5 scenario, it might grow by 10% by 2070. The study also reveals that C. vialis may expand its niche at both lower and higher elevations. This study clarifies how bioclimatic and topographic factors affect the dispersion of invasive species in the biodiverse IHR. Policymakers and land-use managers can utilize the data to monitor C. vialis hotspots and develop scientifically sound management methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall are expected to have negative e%ects on ecosystem services causing significant shrinkage or shift in forest distributions particularly in the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we aimed to determine the distribution of Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica Manetti), modeling the current and potential future distributions in Morocco with Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach. Modeling was performed using all bioclimatic variables that show a significant relationship to the current distribution of Atlas cedar and that were specifically preferred in the literature by several similar studies. Prediction of warmer future scenarios showed that populations in the potential area would decrease by 21% for RCP 4.5 (2050), by 23% for RCP 4.5 (2070), by 35% for RCP 8.5 (2050), and 41% for RCP 8.5 (2070) and that there would be an impact in all ranges including the Cedar Biosphere Reserve in Morocco. Similarly, the Atlas cedar would lose its isolated-marginal populations in its southern and western extents. The results underline the importance of a genetic conservation program for cedar populations in Morocco. Otherwise, gene pools seem to turn extinct due to climate change. Furthermore, this study is intended to provide a starting point for continuous monitoring of Atlas cedars distributions while observing its climatic migration. Species distribution modeling generates valuable information for conservation management strategies for this endemic, rare, and threatened relict tree species. The results can be used to identify high-priority areas for Atlas cedar restoration and conservation against the expected impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The global distribution and diversity of mites, including the species rich and highly host plant‐specific eriophyoid mites, are important questions in biogeography and biodiversity conservation. Here we critique the paper of Li et al. (2023) titled 'Global patterns and drivers of herbivorous eriophyoid mite species diversity'. Location: Global Taxon: Eriophyoid mites (Acari: Eriophyoidea) Methods: We assert that the data set utilized (less than 4,500 eriophyoid species) consisted of only the described extant species, not all extant species. We then provide evidence that the utilised data set represents only a small proportion of the likely global total of eriophyoid species and therefore provides a far from complete representation of their global distribution. Results: Most collections of extant eriophyoid mites have been conducted in temperate regions where most taxonomic specialists have been active, and not in the largely unstudied tropical regions which contain a very substantial majority of all plant diversity. Most undescribed eriophyoid diversity is therefore highly likely to be found in the tropics. This suggests that the global modelling analyses of Li et al. (2023) were very likely applied to a highly inaccurate data set. Main Conclusions: The actual global distribution and total number of eriophyoid mite species can only be more reliably estimated by systematic taxonomic studies that cover the entire global distribution of plant diversity, which implies a strong focus on the tropical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and land cover change often interactively affect plant species distributions. This study addresses the vulnerability of lowland and upland orchids to climate change and land cover change. Endemic orchids of New Guinea were grouped into four classes (lowland epiphyte, lowland terrestrial, upland epiphyte, upland terrestrial) based on their life form and elevation range. Forty occurrence records of endemic orchids were selected for each class, totaling 160 occurrence records. Ensemble modelling combining two machine learning algorithms was used to generate predictive current and future suitable areas for orchid classes. Model performance was evaluated using the AUC and TSS metrics. Suitable areas for both lowland and upland orchids (epiphyte and terrestrial) were predicted decrease in the future due to climate change and land cover change. The loss of suitable areas for upland terrestrial orchids was predicted to be most significant in the worst-case climate change scenario (SSP 5–8.5). Both lowland and upland orchids (epiphyte and terrestrial) tend to shift to higher elevation ranges from the present distributions. The predictive models have AUC values >0.90 and TSS value >0.80, indicating the models have excellent potential for predicting the impact of climate change and land cover change on orchid distributions. • Ensemble model is a robust tool for predicting endemic orchids. • Epiphyte and terrestrial orchids are vulnerable to climate change and land cover change. • The suitability distribution of epiphyte and terrestrial orchids are predicted to decline in the future. • Upland orchids are predicted to lose a larger suitable area compared to lowland orchids. • Lowland and upland orchids will move to higher elevation in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rate of climate change advancement and its predicted impact are valid reasons for intense discourse on the topic of choosing the most suitable silvicultural and adaptation measures for the longevity and sustainability of forest communities. Changes in growth conditions of plants can be expected in both vertical (altitudinal) and horizontal (geographical) directions. The anticipated occurrence rate of these changes should, according to climate models, be higher than the natural adaptability rate of longevous tree species. This study focuses on the possibility of utilising regional geographical units of the Czech Republic (Central Europe) - Natural Forest Areas (NFAs) - for introducing the principles of assisted forest migration to national silviculture policies in order to find solutions for the predicted climate change scenarios. The primary objectives are (i) to review the history of the NFA concept, (ii) to discuss the perspectives of NFAs with regard to climate change, and (iii) to propose possible solutions for further development in comparison with alternative approaches to horizontal classification of the Czech Republic. This study is the first of its kind that provides a complete textual and graphic overview of the NFAs' history from 1959 to 2018, highlighting the purpose of NFAs as both frameworks for the maintenance of the genetic potential of forest tree species' populations and frameworks for long-term strategic management planning. Further development of the concept is discussed in connection with the main principles of assisted forest migration and the possibility of employing geospatial modellation analyses for a more precise definition of current NFA borders. An assessment of the areas' potential is also debated, mainly with an emphasis on the zonality of forest sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Trees from flooded forests have to adjust their xylem hydraulic structure to face the annual flooding and the climatic conditions of the atmosphere. Usually, this adjustment of anatomical tissues in the tropics is driven by drought events inducing conservative behavior and can be recorded annually in tree rings. However, how the flood pulse and the climatic conditions influence the xylem hydraulic structure in floodplain trees is unknown. Methods: To fill this gap, we explore if flooded periods and monthly climate variation affect the annual tree growth and xylem anatomy structure for the tree species Hydrochorea corymbosa (Fabaceae) from the varzea flooded forest in the Central Amazon. We developed a 41-year ring width chronology (1971-2018) and a 30-year time series of xylem anatomy parameters (1988-2018) as mean hydraulic vessel diameter (Dh), vessel frequency (VF), and parenchyma quantity (PQ). We correlated the series with monthly hydrological and climatic data. Results: The hydrological regime did not correlate with annual tree growth in that species as we previously expected but showed correlations with the xylem anatomical structure. High flood levels during the end of the flooding period induced conservative patterns of the anatomical structure, with a negative correlation with Dh (rho June = -0.40, p < 0.05) and a positive correlation with the PQ (rho September/October = 0.42, p < 0.05). These responses show that these trees are responding to flooding similar to the tree responses to drought. Regarding the climatic variation, the annual tree growth showed a negative correlation with the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), after the second half of the flooded period with the strongest correlation happening during the non- flooded period (rho December = -0.66, p < 0. 01). These conservative patterns in tree behavior also happened when the maximum temperature negatively affected the vessel diameter (rho September = -0.42, p < 0.05). Discussion: In that case, we recognized two different moments that the environment is inducing conservative patterns in the xylem structure of those trees: 1) increasing the flood levels and 2) the high evaporative demand during the non-flooded period. In this way, the intensification of the hydrological regime, as well as the strong drought conditions during the non-flooded periods, can be a risk for H. corymbosa in the Central Amazonian floodplains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research analyses the long-term vegetation trends in Shada Mountain across six elevation zones, utilizing Landsat 5, 7, 8, and 9 imageries processed via Google Earth Engine and R. The study managed differences in images resolution through meticulous calibration and image processing techniques. The study is structured around two objectives: examining the relationship between vegetation and its proximity to streams and land surface temperature and analyzing trends in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Regression analysis revealed a negative correlation between vegetation and proximity to streams in lower zones (1-3), with no significant effect in higher zones (4-6). NDVI trend analysis indicated an overall increase in vegetation across most zones, with the exception of zone 5, which displayed a negative trend (slope -0.0025). The findings reveal that the decline is particularly pronounced among key tree species such as Ficus cordata subsp. salicifolia and Acacia asak, suggesting potential impacts from climate change and land use alterations. These zone-specific insights deepen our understanding of the dynamic ecological processes in semi-arid environments and guide targeted environmental management and conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the liverwort Hygrobiella laxiflora as an example, this study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on montane species and their ecosystems. The study area is the Elbe Sandstone Mountains in Germany and the Czech Republic, where Hygrobiella laxifolia has an isolated occurrence in deeply carved gorges characterized by a specific microclimate (cellar climate). The focus is on determining the rate at which populations are affected. After little change in the population over a long period, a sudden sharp decline has been observed in recent years. The decline correlates with the mass proliferation of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) observed since 2017, which has led to a strong thinning of the forests in the area. In many areas of occurrence, the forests now have a much sparser tree layer or none at all. Competition from other, more competitive species also plays an important role as a cause of decline, as these have spread more widely on the sites due to the now higher light levels. The severe bark beetle infestation and the large-scale forest fire of 2022 both represent events that led to the almost complete deforestation of large parts of the study area, which was previously unknown on this scale. Since both the bark beetle infestation and the forest fire are strongly intensified by climate change, we assume that climate change is the main reason for the decline of Hygrobiella laxifolia in the area. The populations of Hygrobiella laxifolia of the Elbe Sandstone Mountains show some morphological peculiarities. As two new species have recently been described within Hygrobiella, we have integrated a sample from the area into a molecular phylogeny of Hygrobiella based on the plastid sequences of trnL-trnF intergenic spacer and matK to clarify the relationships. The sample from Elbe Sandstone Mountains fits well into the clade of Hygrobiella laxifolia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the interannual variability (IAV) of vegetation greenness and carbon sequestration are key indicators of the stability and climate sensitivities of terrestrial ecosystems. Recent studies have examined the changes in the vegetation IAV using atmospheric CO2 observations and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), however, reported different and even contradictory IAV trends. Here, we investigate the changes in the IAV of vegetation greenness, quantified as coefficient of variability (CV), over the past few decades based on multiple satellite remote sensing products and DGVMs. Our results suggested that, on half of the global vegetated surface (mostly in the tropics), the CV trends detected by different satellite remote sensing products are conflicting. We found that 22.20% and 28.20% of the global vegetated surface (mostly in the non‐tropical land surface) show significant positive and negative CV trends (p ≤ 0.1), respectively. Regions with higher air temperature and greater aridity tend to have increasing CV trends, whereas greater vegetation greening trend and higher nitrogen deposition lead to smaller CV trends. DGVMs generally cannot capture the CV trends obtained from satellite remote sensing products, while the inconsistency among satellite remote sensing products is likely caused by their process algorithms rather than the sensors utilized. Our study closely examines the changes in the IAV of global vegetation greenness, and highlights substantial uncertainty when using satellite remote sensing to study the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Plain Language Summary: Vegetation greenness changes year to year in response to climate variability and reflects the stability of ecosystems. How the interannual variability (IAV) of vegetation greenness has changed in the past decades, however, remained uncertain with recent studies reporting conflicting IAV trends using different satellite remote sensing products. Here, we investigated the greenness IAV trends of global vegetation using multiple mainstream satellite remote sensing products. We found that the changes in greenness IAV are conflicting on half of the global vegetated surface, while the differences in background climate, greening trends and nitrogen deposition rates account for either positive or negative trends in greenness IAV on the remaining half of the vegetated surface. Key Points: On half of the global vegetated surface, the changes in the vegetation greenness interannual variability (IAV) are conflicting22.20% and 28.20% of the global vegetated surface show significant positive and negative trends of vegetation greenness IAV, respectivelyWarmer and drier places lead to greater greenness IAV whereas greater greening trend and higher nitrogen deposition make IAV smaller [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Forests are essential for maintaining species diversity, stabilizing local and global climate, and providing ecosystem services. Exploring the impact of paleogeographic events and climate change on the genetic structure and distribution dynamics of forest keystone species could help predict responses to future climate change. In this study, we combined an ensemble species distribution model (eSDM) and multilocus phylogeography to investigate the spatial genetic patterns and distribution change of Quercus glauca Thunb, a keystone of East Asian subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest. Results A total of 781 samples were collected from 77 populations, largely covering the natural distribution of Q. glauca. The eSDM showed that the suitable habitat experienced a significant expansion after the last glacial maximum (LGM) but will recede in the future under a general climate warming scenario. The distribution centroid will migrate toward the northeast as the climate warms. Using nuclear SSR data, two distinct lineages split between east and west were detected. Within-group genetic differentiation was higher in the West than in the East. Based on the identified 58 haplotypes, no clear phylogeographic structure was found. Populations in the Nanling Mountains, Wuyi Mountains, and the southwest region were found to have high genetic diversity. Conclusions A significant negative correlation between habitat stability and heterozygosity might be explained by the mixing of different lineages in the expansion region after LGM and/or hybridization between Q. glauca and closely related species. The Nanling Mountains may be important for organisms as a dispersal corridor in the west-east direction and as a refugium during the glacial period. This study provided new insights into spatial genetic patterns and distribution dynamics of Q. glauca. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims -- Endemism may be defined according to the time of origin of taxa. Neo-endemics refer to relatively recent species that have not dispersed outside their ancestral areas. In contrast, paleo-endemics refer to species of ancient origins, which are currently geographically restricted but probably were more widespread in the past. Geographically, endemism areas may also be based on the co-occurrence of more than one species. We aimed to qualitatively identify the neo-endemism and paleo-endemism of endemic Cactaceae of the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley, as well as to quantitatively assess paleo- and neo-endemics areas. Material and methods -- Using a dated molecular phylogeny of endemic Cactaceae, we defined paleo- and neo-endemics using an arbitrary boundary of 2.6 million years ago; we also assessed the significance of concentrations of these species using a categorical analysis of paleo- and neo-endemism. Key results -- Our results showed that most endemic Cactaceae in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley arose throughout the Pleistocene, while categorical analysis indicated localised mixed- and super-endemism (including both paleo- and neoendemics) areas. Conclusion -- We suggest that paleo- and neo-endemics, as well as localised mixed-endemism areas, may have originated due to a probable high climatic stability in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley, which in addition to topographically rugged and ecologically complex zones (e.g. ecotones, isolated habitat patches) may have allowed it to function as a refuge throughout Pleistocene climatic changes, mainly promoting the speciation of neo-endemics, as well as the persistence of relatively few paleo-endemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]