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We examine the nonlinear relationship between interest rates on bank risk-taking behavior in South Africa between 2008:q1 and 2022:q3 using nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) and quantile autoregressive distributive lag (QARDL) models. Whilst the preliminary estimates from linear ARDL produce results adhering to conventional theory, the NARDL and QARDL analysis shows that the relationship between the variables is more complex. On one hand, the NARDL model shows that the phase of monetary policy (cyclical asymmetries) is important in determining the pass-through effects of interest rates on bank risk behavior. We find that both contractionary and expansionary monetary policy increases long-term risk through decreased liquidity for the former and increased non-performing loans for the latter. On the other hand, the QARDL model shows that the level of bank risk behavior (location asymmetries) is also important in determining the impact of interest rates on bank risk behavior. We find that interest rates affect bank risk behavior in 'medium-to-high risk environments' for unsecured loans and lending and in 'medium-to-low risk environments' for liquidity. Overall, these results enable us to recommend ways in which the SARB can strengthen its monitoring mechanisms given the multifaceted impact of interest rates on bank risk-taking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy transmission by comprehensively analyzing multiple bank risk measurements amid monetary policy shocks in Vietnam. Using banking data for 2008-2021, a dynamic panel model is estimated to examine the risk exposure of 30 Vietnamese commercial banks. The paper employs the annual M2 money supply growth as a monetary policy variable, besides two policy interest rates established by the central bank. We find that an expansion of monetary policy benefits the quality of loan portfolios; however, reduced interest rates or an extended money supply increase insolvency risk. We also document that heightened economic growth corresponds to a reduced likelihood of credit and insolvency risks, while a surge in the inflation rate leads to an escalation in insolvency risk, manifested by a decline in the Z-score index. Overall, the findings on different risk dimensions in this paper are expected to draw a comprehensive picture of banks' risk appetite and behavior in response to monetary changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Formal credit plays an important role for the development of the agriculture sector in developing countries because many farmers are characterized as liquidity constrained. Access to credit can increase farmers' purchasing power for inputs and agricultural technology, thus raising the overall productivity. Farmers in Mali are particularly vulnerable to shocks, such as heavy precipitation events. Access to liquidity to increase the resilience of the agricultural sector is essential. Therefore, higher financing volumes are required, which make the analysis of loan demand in agriculture of interest. The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the role of the interest rate, the macroeconomic environment, the agricultural cycle and the gender of the farmer on the loan demand in the agricultural sector from a country in the Sahel. Unique and comprehensive loan data at the farm level, provided by a commercial Malian bank, is used for this analysis. The analysis covers the period from 2010 to 2020. Two different estimation strategies are combined. First, an ordinary least square regression is applied with the granted loan amount as the dependent variable. Second, the machine learning technique, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, is applied to select the most relevant features to be used as explanatory variables in the estimation. The results reveal that the interest rate, the gross value added, the farmer's gender as well as the agricultural cycle have statistically significant effects on the granted loan demand in agriculture. These results are of interest to policymakers, who deal with financial inclusion as well as market failures, and agricultural financial institutions who could incorporate such information in the design of future loan products to stimulate farmers' loan demand, especially for female farmers. [EconLit Citations: G20, G21, O13, O16, Q14, Q18]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose. The purpose of this research is to propose a tool for designing a microcredit risk pricing strategy for borrowers of microfinance institutions (MFIs). Design/methodology/approach. Considering the specific characteristics of microcredit borrowers, we first estimate and measure microcredit risk through the default probability, applying a parametric technique such as logistic regression and a non-parametric technique based on an artificial neural network, looking for the model with the highest predictive power. Secondly, based on the Basel III internal ratings-based (IRB) approach, we use the credit risk measurement for each borrower to design a pricing model that sets microcredit interest rates according to default risk. Findings. The paper demonstrates that the probability of default for each borrower is more accurately adjusted using the artificial neural network. Furthermore, our results suggest that, given a profitability target for the MFI, the microcredit interest rate for clients with a lower level of credit risk should be lower than a standard, fixed rate to achieve the profitability target. Practical implications. This tool allows us, on the one hand, to measure and assess credit risk and minimize default losses in MFIs and, secondly, to promote their competitiveness by reducing interest rates, capital requirements, and credit losses, favoring the financial self-sustainability of these institutions. Social implications. Our findings have the potential to make microfinance institutions fairer and more equitable in their lending practices by providing microcredit with risk-adjusted pricing. Furthermore, our findings can contribute to the design of government policies aimed at promoting the financial and social inclusion of vulnerable people. Originality. The personal characteristics of microcredit clients, mainly reputation and moral solvency, are crucial to the default behavior of microfinance borrowers. These factors should have an impact on the pricing of microcredit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the impact of interest rates, repayment periods, and loan scales on loan consequences has been extensively studied, little attention has been paid to the geographical distance involved in loan transactions. This study collects the addresses of borrowing companies, listed companies, and banks. Nonlocal loans can be distinguished because the regional segmentations in the lending industry reflect the features of provincial boundaries. Using data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2022, this research explores the causes of nonlocal loans and their impact on company innovation. Nonlocal loans are found to address the lack of local credit resources rather than financial constraints, supplementing disposable capital. This interregional circulation of credit resources facilitates innovation, particularly in financially undeveloped areas. This study does not detect research and development manipulation and recognizes the increase in innovation output. The findings have implications for credit resource allocation and balanced regional development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem in the presence of a reserve requirement. Banks pay depositors the deposit rate and receive the borrowing rate on loans. Equivalence fails because the reserve requirement drives a wedge between the deposit and borrowing rates implying that government faces a different intertemporal tradeoff than savers. A tax cut financed by an increase in government debt causes an increase in savings but only increases the supply of loanable funds by a fraction because of the reserve requirement. This causes interest rates to rise and consumption to fall. We also show that if the central bank pays interest on reserves at the borrowing rate, the various rates are equal, however, equivalence still fails. The reason is that future taxes to pay down the debt must be higher for the central bank to pay interest and consumption will fall in response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper theoretically and empirically studies the interaction of search and application approval in credit markets. Risky borrowers internalize the probability that their application is rejected and behave as if they had high search costs. Thus, "overpayment" may be a poor proxy for consumer sophistication since it partly represents rational search in response to rejections. Contrary to standard search models, our model implies (1) endogenous adverse selection through the search and application approval process, (2) a possibly non‐monotone or non‐decreasing relationship between search and realized interest, default, and application approval rates, and (3) search costs estimated from transaction prices alone are biased. We find support for the model's predictions using a unique data set detailing search behavior of mortgage borrowers. Estimating the model, we find that screening is informative and search is costly. Counterfactual analyses reveal that tightening lending standards and discrimination through application rejection both increase equilibrium interest rates. This increase in realized interest rates is in part due to strategic complementarity in bank rate setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate and trace a credit demand curve for households that recently experienced damage to their homes from a natural disaster. Our administrative data include over one million applicants to a federal recovery loan program for households. We estimate extensive‐margin demand over a large range of interest rates. Our identification strategy exploits 24 natural experiments, leveraging exogenous, time‐based variation in the program's offered interest rate. Interest rates meaningfully affect consumer demand throughout the distribution of rates. On average, a 1 percentage point increase in the interest rate reduces loan take‐up by 26%. We find a large impact of applicants' credit quality on demand and evidence of monthly payment targeting. Using our estimated demand curve and information on program costs, we find that the program generates an average social surplus of $2900 per borrower. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the universe of mortgage contracts to estimate the response of high-interest lenders to borrower protection regulations aimed at simplifying and making loan terms more transparent. Using a quasi-experimental design, I find that lenders substantially reduce interest rates—by an average of 10%—in order to avoid being subject to borrower protection, without reducing amounts loaned or the number of loans approved. This finding is consistent with high-interest lenders preferring to issue obfuscatory mortgage contracts with lower interest rates rather than more transparent and regulated mortgages with higher interest rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research examines the determinants of banks' profit by employing the GLS, GMM and SEM regression method for 574 observations obtaining from 35 banks functioning in Vietnam between 2005 and 2022. Our evidence indicates that non-performing loans, deposit, loan, capital, operating cost, provisions, bank size, Covid-19 pandemic, inflation, economic growth, deposit rate, credit risk, exchange rate and ownership are key factors affecting bank profitability. Our findings show that the global crises are negatively associated with ROA and NIM while they are negatively related to ROE. The COVID-19 has a stronger effect than the financial crisis. Both crises play a moderating role in bank profitability. This research expands the existing literature by analyzing the impact of crises and the moderating effects, crisis comparison, and ownership effect which have not been done so far, to our best knowledge. This research also extends the literature by offering additional understandings about the determinants of bank profitability in emerging economies. Different from the previous studies, our dataset including foreign banks helps us analyze all banks. The investigation of factors affecting profitability also assists banks in regulating and supporting prudential supervisions carefully. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the topical issue of risk management in foreign economic and logistics activities, which is closely related to the enterprise’s chosen strategy and ensures its sustainable development. The study considers the issue of developing a hedging strategy using statistical methods since adequate forecasting allows predicting the impact of external environment factors on the exchange rate, which will allow the enterprise to timely predict and mitigate the risks in foreign economic and logistics activities. The authors have used general scientific and special methods of systemic and structural analysis to clarify the directions of sustainable performance and risk management tools; formulate the goals and steps in choosing a strategy of hedging; compare the methods of foreign exchange rate risk hedging and perform correlation and regression analysis of factors that impact exchange rate under crisis conditions. The purpose of the paper is to study the specifics of ensuring the sustainable performance of an enterprise using statistical methods in risk management for planning foreign economic and logistics activities. The authors have proposed a definition of a hedging strategy based on the concepts, approaches, and ideas of asset and/or investment management with the aim of reducing loss through hedging instruments, whose feasibility can be substantiated by statistical methods. It has been found that the formation and successful implementation of a hedging strategy requires the use of statistical analysis in order to timely predict fluctuations in exchange rates. The findings of the research were tested based on the performance of PrJSC "Linde Gas Ukraine". In the strategy of hedging the exchange rate risks, it has been proposed to simultaneously open a foreign currency deposit and take a loan in the national currency to replenish the company's working capital. The perspective of further research is the implementation of the proposed hedging strategy and assessment of its effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document provides a list of recommended readings for undergraduate economics teachers, covering a range of topics including wealth taxation, corporate bonds, productivity growth, Federal Home Loan Banks, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). It also mentions a special issue of the Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis focusing on sustainable development goals. The document discusses the congestion pricing plan in Manhattan, implemented by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), which aims to reduce traffic and raise funds for public transit. The Journal of Economic Education has published a symposium on economics education, highlighting the decline in students taking economics courses. Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics, has retired from academic economics, citing a lack of impact and a desire to reach a wider audience through media platforms. The Dunning-Kruger effect, which refers to people lacking the expertise to recognize their own lack of expertise, is discussed in an interview with David Dunning. Edward Glaeser explores the concept of the "15-minute city" and its potential impact on racial and income segregation in American cities. The document also examines the changing nature of tipping in the United States, with tipping becoming more expected in various transactions. Lastly, it discusses the decline in the shareholder tax base in the United States, with foreign and tax-exempt investors now dominating stock ownership. [Extracted from the article]

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the intertemporal relationship between the non-performing loan ratio and bank lending and to analyze factors affecting loan growth using data from Mongolian commercial banks. There has been a lack of research on Mongolian banks' lending behavior due to their short history. Thus, this paper investigates the effect of the non-performing loan ratio on total loan growth using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model with panel data. We used bank-related variables such as the loan-to-deposit ratio, provision-to-gross loan portfolio ratio, equity-to-asset ratio, and liquidity ratio, and economic variables such as the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, interest rate, and inflation rate. The results of this paper show that non-performing loans have a significant negative impact on total loan growth. The implication of this result is that non-performing loans affect banking efficiency, which, in turn, affects financial stability and the real economy. Moreover, high non-performing loans reduce banks' profits. Also, this paper found that loss reserve and the liquidity ratio have a positive effect on total loan growth, while the effects of the loan-to-deposit ratio and the equity capital ratio were not found to be significant. Additionally, from a macro perspective, the inflation rate has a positive effect on the total loan growth rate, while the interest rate has a positive effect on total loan growth rather than a negative effect. And real gross domestic product (GDP) growth does not affect the total loan growth rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study debt-contracting implications of uncertainty surrounding U.S. gubernatorial elections. In election years, loan contracts are more likely to include performance-pricing provisions, whereas loan spreads are mostly unaffected. Additionally, we find, only among those loans without performance-pricing provisions, a marginal increase in loan spreads in election years and a significant increase in loan-spread amendments postelection. The results suggest that under transitory uncertainty, performance pricing curbs an explicit rise in loan spreads and reduces ex-post renegotiations, yielding efficiency gains in contracting. Our further analysis uncovers a veiled pricing effect manifested through interest-rate contingencies: the likelihood of using rate-increasing pricing grids rises in election years for borrowers with a high exposure to uncertainty, thereby ensuring compensation to lenders for uncertainty. Overall, our findings suggest that loan contracting attempts to mitigate the problem of election uncertainty and renegotiation costs through state-contingent pricing, with which borrowers weigh initial loan spreads against the potential for loan-spread variability in the future. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Supplemental Material: The data is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.03106. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document explores the factors that have influenced the neutral real interest rate in the UK. It notes that the neutral rate has recently risen to just below 3% but is expected to decline to around 2% by 2030. Inflation expectations have primarily driven the increase in the nominal neutral rate, while the real neutral rate has risen more modestly. The UK's weak demographic and productivity prospects are projected to keep the neutral real rate at historically low levels. The document acknowledges the uncertainty in estimating the neutral rate and the challenges of accounting for structural changes in the UK. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has indicated the possibility of an interest rate cut in the near future. [Extracted from the article]

Federal regulators in 2010 amended lending rules to allow federal credit unions (FCU) to originate short‐term, small‐dollar amount loans, with an annual percentage rate of up to 1000 basis points above the otherwise imposed interest rate ceiling of 18 percent. The purpose of the change in policy was to allow FCUs the ability to provide their members with an alternative to payday loans. We find the decision to originate these higher‐interest loans is primarily influenced by the characteristics of a credit union's environment. Credit unions located in minority neighborhoods and in markets with fewer traditional financial services are more likely to participate in the payday alternative loan program. Participation in the program is shown to improve earnings performance without adversely affecting participants' loan quality. These results suggest credit unions can provide lower‐priced alternatives to payday loans that are beneficial to members and their credit unions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents evidence on the relative accommodation of credit requests made by minority start‐up entrepreneurs in the U.S. farm sector. Loan packaging terms (amount, interest rate, and maturity) prescribed by lending officers of the Farm Service Agency, the government's lending arm to the farm sector, are analyzed and compared across racial/ethnic and gender groups of borrowers. The intention is to discern whether prescribed loan terms are favorable and supportive of the new farms' business growth and survival goals and uncover any trends of preferential treatment for certain groups of borrowers. Econometric results did not uncover any significant deviations in the lenders' decisions for beginning African American and White farmers for all three components of the loan package. While most packaging term decisions were similar among borrowers of different racial/ethnic attributes, the only exceptional terms were significantly larger loan amounts for American Indians and higher interest rates for Hispanic Americans. Compared to farmers in the South, loan term decisions seem to align with regional concentrations of farm typologies, such as the prevalence of livestock operations in the Plains and Midwest that require longer loan repayment periods and larger crop farms in the West with higher loan amount approvals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digital credit has expanded rapidly in Africa, with opaque loan terms amidst low consumer financial literacy. Rich data from Malawi shows substantial demand for a digital loan with a base interest rate of 10% over 15 days, yet most borrowers are not aware of loan terms, repay late and incur substantial late fees. Regression discontinuity analyses show no evidence that access to small digital loans harms consumers' perceived well-being. A short, randomised, phone-based financial literacy intervention improved knowledge, but did not increase timely loan repayment and modestly increased loan demand, ultimately increasing the likelihood of ever defaulting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the influence of macroeconomic variables and bank-specific factors on the credit risk of Islamic banking in Pakistan, through the panel data regression tools. The statistical tool which is applied to the research is ordinary least square (OLS) regression model. All the assumption to be fulfilled before using OLS. The secondary data have been taken from four (04) full-fledged Islamic banks in Pakistan, from 2007 to 2021. The focus of the research is to find the impact of macroeconomic variables like Gross domestic product, inflation, and growth in the interest rate and bank-specific factors like size, return on assets, loan loss provision, capital Adequacy ratio, and Asset quality to determine the credit risk (non-performing loans) of Islamic banks in Pakistan. The result of the ordinary least square (OLS) regression model is that loan loss provisions (LLP) have a positive and significant impact on credit risk (CR) and size of bank (S), and Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) have a negative and significant impact on credit risk (CR) of Islamic Bank of Pakistan. Inflation (INF) and Gross domestic product (GDP) have a positive and insignificant impact on credit risk (CR), and growth in interest rate (INT), return on assets (ROA), and asset quality (AQ) has a negative and insignificant impact on Credit risk (CR) of Islamic Bank of Pakistan. Therefore, Islamic banks should carefully examine their specific factors, i.e. LLP, S, and CAR to manage their credit risk, particularly in monitoring loans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to explore and evaluate the composition and performance of the loan portfolio of commercial banks in Romania, identifying the main risk factors and development trends. Starting from a historical analysis and reaching the assessment of the impact of some macroeconomic and regulatory factors, the study aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the state of lending in the Romanian context. In this analysis, we will adopt a multidisciplinary methodology, combining statistical analysis, evaluation based on econometric models and qualitative data interpretation, with the aim of providing a comprehensive and detailed perspective. The work will also try to shed light on how lending policies and banking sector regulations have evolved over time and how they influence financial performance and credit risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the expected cost of conservation agriculture (CA) inputs becomes an issue for farmers, financial institutions (FIs) play an essential role in promoting CA, a set of agricultural management practices with multiple positive effects. This research aimed to determine influencing factors, to rank challenges, and identify mechanisms for farmers to access agricultural credit for adoption of CA management practices in Cambodia. It was administered by conducting a survey of 242 randomly selected households for face-to-face interviews and conducting key informant interviews from purposive samples of 28 participants in Battambang and Preah Vihear provinces. The results indicated that influencing factors, including the family, adult labor and total farm size, had a positive relationship with farmers' accessibility to agricultural credit, whereas age was negative. However, education year, farm size for main crops, on-farm income and farm experience were not significantly associated. High interest rates were the significant first-order challenge ranked, followed by document process complication, limited agricultural credit information, limited collateral security and a few other challenges. Support and improved process mechanisms to enhance credit accessibility are required to engage with multiple stakeholders, including farmers, FIs, non-government organizations (NGOs) and government officers. There has been a reduction in agricultural credit interest rates and incentives for importing CA inputs by the government, while provision of information support for agribusiness plans by NGOs which have implemented development project activities were considered as the main support mechanism. An improved process mechanism at the farmers' level needs to include access to credit with low interest rates and a straightforward documentation process, whereas the FI level requires a business plan for lending decisions. It is evident that high lending rates hinder access to agricultural credit and the improvement of support and improved process mechanisms are necessary to better promote CA practices among farmers in Cambodia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]