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Robinia pseudoacacia is one of the most frequent non‐native species in Europe. It is a fast‐growing tree of high economic and cultural importance. On the other hand, it is an invasive species, causing changes in soil chemistry and light regime, and consequently altering the plant communities. Previously published models developed for the potential distribution of R. pseudoacacia concerned 2070, and were based mainly on data from Western and Central Europe; here we extended these findings and included additional data from Eastern Europe. To fill the gap in current knowledge of R. pseudoacacia distribution and improve the reliability of forecasts, we aimed to (i) determine the extent to which the outcome of range modeling will be affected by complementing R. pseudoacacia occurrence data with sites from Central, Southeastern, and Eastern Europe, (ii) identify and quantify the changes in the availability of climate niches for 2050 and 2070, and discuss their impacts on forest management and nature conservation. We showed that the majority of the range changes expected in 2070 will occur as early as 2050. In comparison to previous studies, we demonstrated a greater eastward shift of potential niches of this species and a greater decline of potential niches in Southern Europe. Consequently, future climatic conditions will likely favor the occurrence of R. pseudoacacia in Central and Northeastern Europe where this species is still absent or relatively rare. There, controlling the spread of R. pseudoacacia will require monitoring sources of invasion in the landscape and reducing the occurrence of this species. The expected effects of climate change will likely be observed 20 years earlier than previously forecasted. Hence we highlighted the urgent need for acceleration of policies aimed at climate change mitigation in Europe. Also, our results showed the need for using more complete distribution data to analyze potential niche models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Four bioclimatic clusters determine black locust distribution in Europe. • The eastern cluster overlaps with climatically suitable area in current and future distribution. • The black locust highlighted spatially and temporally variable climate sensitivity. • The plasticity in secondary growth may increase the black locust's invasive potential. As a consequence of native tree species decline and distribution range contraction in Europe, acclimation of the non-native tree species at the edge of their distribution is gaining importance. Although non-native tree species may provide sustainable ecosystem services, as a potentially invasive species they may be a threat to local ecosystems as well. In Europe, black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) a non-native species, seems to meet the condition of acclimation as a multi-generational process. The acclimatization, however, may have consequences not only for growth performance but also for the species' invasive potential. This study investigates the spatiotemporal pattern of secondary growth and climate sensitivity among six black locust stands along continentality gradient in Eastern Europe with the respect to bioclimatic conditions of the species distribution in Europe. Despite comparable bioclimatic conditions, climate sensitivity of black locust stands is highly variable, both temporally and spatially. The winter and spring temperatures are a key climatic driver of the growth pattern in southern and western Poland. Growth response to previous winter and current summer precipitation distinguished stands in western and eastern Poland. A significant increase in the mean annual temperature during the last 70 years likely triggered temporal instability of the black locusts' climate signal. In general, drought conditions were found to be the main limiting factor at the edge sites within the black locust gradient. Thus, the climate sensitivity of black locust stands reflects rather site-specific microclimatic conditions then bioclimatically-based clustering pattern. Despite climate-related limiting factors, black locust seems to be characterized by high potential for acclimatization to Eastern European climatic conditions, suggesting high invasive potential. Thus, the replacement of native species by black locust or the conversion of local habitats into monocultures for biomass production should not be recommended, while species management should follow proactive measures to reduce the risk of uncontrolled spread of the species. Divergent growth reaction of black locust stands implies high plasticity of secondary growth and thus high probability of acclimatization to future climate. Given the expected range expansion to the East in Europe, we call for expanding dendroclimatic studies to the areas of future species expansion in order to test its climatic and edaphic limitations. This seems to be crucial for formulating non-native species management strategies in line with sustainable forestry, preventing the uncontrolled expansion of the species that threatens vulnerable habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]