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Genomic prediction of complex traits across environments, breeding cycles, and populations remains a challenge for plant breeding. A potential explanation for this is that underlying non-additive genetic (GxG) and genotype-by-environment (GxE) interactions generate allele substitution effects that are non-stationary across different contexts. Such non-stationary effects of alleles are either ignored or assumed to be implicitly captured by most gene-to-phenotype (G2P) maps used in genomic prediction. The implicit capture of non-stationary effects of alleles requires the G2P map to be re-estimated across different contexts. We discuss the development and application of hierarchical G2P maps that explicitly capture non-stationary effects of alleles and have successfully increased short-term prediction accuracy in plant breeding. These hierarchical G2P maps achieve increases in prediction accuracy by allowing intermediate processes such as other traits and environmental factors and their interactions to contribute to complex trait variation. However, long-term prediction remains a challenge. The plant breeding community should undertake complementary simulation and empirical experiments to interrogate various hierarchical G2P maps that connect GxG and GxE interactions simultaneously. The existing genetic correlation framework can be used to assess the magnitude of non-stationary effects of alleles and the predictive ability of these hierarchical G2P maps in long-term, multi-context genomic predictions of complex traits in plant breeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key message: Simulations highlight the potential of genomic selection to substantially increase genetic gain for complex traits in sugarcane. The success rate depends on the trait genetic architecture and the implementation strategy. Genomic selection (GS) has the potential to increase the rate of genetic gain in sugarcane beyond the levels achieved by conventional phenotypic selection (PS). To assess different implementation strategies, we simulated two different GS-based breeding strategies and compared genetic gain and genetic variance over five breeding cycles to standard PS. GS scheme 1 followed similar routines like conventional PS but included three rapid recurrent genomic selection (RRGS) steps. GS scheme 2 also included three RRGS steps but did not include a progeny assessment stage and therefore differed more fundamentally from PS. Under an additive trait model, both simulated GS schemes achieved annual genetic gains of 2.6–2.7% which were 1.9 times higher compared to standard phenotypic selection (1.4%). For a complex non-additive trait model, the expected annual rates of genetic gain were lower for all breeding schemes; however, the rates for the GS schemes (1.5–1.6%) were still greater than PS (1.1%). Investigating cost–benefit ratios with regard to numbers of genotyped clones showed that substantial benefits could be achieved when only 1500 clones were genotyped per 10-year breeding cycle for the additive genetic model. Our results show that under a complex non-additive genetic model, the success rate of GS depends on the implementation strategy, the number of genotyped clones and the stage of the breeding program, likely reflecting how changes in QTL allele frequencies change additive genetic variance and therefore the efficiency of selection. These results are encouraging and motivate further work to facilitate the adoption of GS in sugarcane breeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sugarcane is a major industrial crop cultivated in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. It is the primary source of sugar worldwide, accounting for more than 70% of world sugar consumption. Additionally, sugarcane is emerging as a source of sustainable bioenergy. However, the increase in productivity from sugarcane has been small compared to other major crops, and the rate of genetic gains from current breeding programs tends to be plateauing. In this review, some of the main contributors for the relatively slow rates of genetic gain are discussed, including (i) breeding cycle length and (ii) low narrow-sense heritability for major commercial traits, possibly reflecting strong non-additive genetic effects involved in quantitative trait expression. A general overview of genomic selection (GS), a modern breeding tool that has been very successfully applied in animal and plant breeding, is given. This review discusses key elements of GS and its potential to significantly increase the rate of genetic gain in sugarcane, mainly by (i) reducing the breeding cycle length, (ii) increasing the prediction accuracy for clonal performance, and (iii) increasing the accuracy of breeding values for parent selection. GS approaches that can accurately capture non-additive genetic effects and potentially improve the accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values are particularly promising for the adoption of GS in sugarcane breeding. Finally, different strategies for the efficient incorporation of GS in a practical sugarcane breeding context are presented. These proposed strategies hold the potential to substantially increase the rate of genetic gain in future sugarcane breeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To develop more productive and resilient crops that are capable of feeding 10 billion people by 2050, we must accelerate the rate of genetic improvement in plant breeding programs. Speed breeding manipulates the growing environment by regulating light and temperature for the purpose of rapid generation advance. Protocols are now available for a range of short-day and long-day species and the approach is highly compatible with other cutting-edge breeding tools such as genomic selection. Here, we highlight how speed breeding hijacks biological processes for applied plant breeding outcomes and provide a case study examining wheat growth and development under speed breeding conditions. The establishment of speed breeding facilities worldwide is expected to provide benefits for capacity building, discovery research, pre-breeding, and plant breeding to accelerate the development of productive and robust crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]