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The equine herpesvirus type 1 (EHV-1) ORF1 and ORF71 genes have immune modulatory effects in vitro. Experimental infection of horses using virus mutants with multiple deletions including ORF1 and ORF71 showed promise as vaccine candidates against EHV-1. Here, the combined effects of ORF1 and ORF71 deletions from the neuropathogenic EHV-1 strain Ab4 on clinical disease and host immune response were further explored. Three groups of EHV-1 naive horses were experimentally infected with the ORF1/71 gene deletion mutant (Ab4ΔORF1/71), the parent Ab4 strain, or remained uninfected. In comparison to Ab4, horses infected with Ab4ΔORF1/71 did not show the initial high fever peak characteristic of EHV-1 infection. Ab4ΔORF1/71 infection had reduced nasal shedding (1/5 vs. 5/5) and, simultaneously, decreased intranasal interferon (IFN)-α, interleukin (IL)-10 and soluble CD14 secretion. However, Ab4 and Ab4ΔORF1/71 infection resulted in comparable viremia, suggesting these genes do not regulate the infection of the mononuclear cells and subsequent viremia. Intranasal and serum anti-EHV-1 antibodies to Ab4ΔORF1/71 developed slightly slower than those to Ab4. However, beyond day 12 post infection (d12pi) serum antibodies in both virus-infected groups were similar and remained increased until the end of the study (d114pi). EHV-1 immunoglobulin (Ig) G isotype responses were dominated by short-lasting IgG1 and long-lasting IgG4/7 antibodies. The IgG4/7 response closely resembled the total EHV-1 specific antibody response. Ex vivo re-stimulation of PBMC with Ab4 resulted in IFN-γ and IL-10 secretion by cells from both infected groups within two weeks pi. Flow cytometric analysis showed that IFN-γ producing EHV-1-specific T-cells were mainly CD8+/IFN-γ+ and detectable from d32pi on. Peripheral blood IFN-γ+ T-cell percentages were similar in both infected groups, albeit at low frequency (~0.1%). In summary, the Ab4ΔORF1/71 gene deletion mutant is less virulent but induced antibody responses and cellular immunity similar to the parent Ab4 strain.

BACKGROUNDThe Canadian National Antiviral Stockpile (NAS) contains treatment for 17.5% of Canadians. This assumes no concurrent intervention strategies and no wastage due to non-influenza respiratory infections. A dynamic model can provide a mechanism to consider complex scenarios to support decisions regarding the optimal NAS size under uncertainty.METHODSWe developed a dynamic model for pandemic influenza in Canada that is structured by age and risk to calculate the demand for antivirals to treat persons with pandemic influenza under a wide-range of scenarios that incorporated transmission dynamics, disease severity, and intervention strategies. The anticipated per capita number of acute respiratory infections due to viruses other than influenza was estimated for the full pandemic period from surveys based on criteria to identify potential respiratory infections.RESULTSOur results demonstrate that up to two thirds of the population could develop respiratory symptoms as a result of infection with a pandemic strain. In the case of perfect antiviral allocation, up to 39.8% of the population could request antiviral treatment. As transmission dynamics, severity and timing of the emergence of a novel influenza strain are unknown, the sensitivity analysis produced considerable variation in potential demand (median: 11%, IQR: 2-21%). If the next pandemic strain emerges in late spring or summer and a vaccine is available before the anticipated fall wave, the median prediction was reduced to 6% and IQR to 0.7-14%. Under the strategy of offering empirical treatment to all patients with influenza like symptoms who present for care, demand could increase to between 65 and 144%.CONCLUSIONSThe demand for antivirals during a pandemic is uncertain. Unless an accurate, timely and cost-effective test is available to identify influenza cases, demand for antivirals from persons infected with other respiratory viruses will be substantial and have a significant impact on the NAS.