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Sensor network intrusion detection has attracted extensive attention. However, previous intrusion detection methods face the highly imbalanced attack class distribution problem, and they may not achieve a satisfactory performance. To solve this problem, we propose a new intrusion detection algorithm based on normalized cut spectral clustering for sensor network in this paper. The main aim is to reduce the imbalance degree among classes in an intrusion detection system. First, we design a normalized cut spectral clustering to reduce the imbalance degree between every two classes in the intrusion detection data set. Second, we train a network intrusion detection classifier on the new data set. Finally, we do extensive experiments and analyze the experimental results in detail. Simulation experiments show that our algorithm can reduce the imbalance degree among classes and reserves the distribution of the original data on the one hand, and improve effectively the detection performance on the other hand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal hierarchies have been widely used during the past few years as they are capable to provide more accurate coherent forecasts at different planning horizons. However, they still display some limitations, being mainly subject to the forecasting methods used for generating the base forecasts and the particularities of the examined series. This paper deals with such limitations by considering three different strategies: (i) combining forecasts of multiple methods, (ii) applying bias adjustments and (iii) selectively implementing temporal hierarchies to avoid seasonal shrinkage. The proposed strategies can be applied either separately or simultaneously, being complements to the method considered for reconciling the base forecasts and completely independent from each other. Their effect is evaluated using the monthly series of the M and M3 competitions. The results are very promising, displaying lots of potential for improving the performance of temporal hierarchies, both in terms of accuracy and bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is commonly used in ICUs around the world, designed to assess the severity of the patient's clinical state based on function/dysfunction of six major organ systems. The goal of this work is to build a computational model to predict mortality based on a series of SOFA scores. In addition, we examined the possibility of improving the prediction by incorporating a new component designed to measure the performance of the gastrointestinal system, added to the other six components. Methods: In this retrospective study, we used patients’ three latest SOFA scores recorded during an individual ICU stay as input to different machine learning models and ensemble learning models. We added three validated parameters representing gastrointestinal failure. Among others, we used classification models such as Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Neural Networks, Logistic Regression and a penalty function used to increase model robustness in regard to certain extreme cases, which may be found in ICU population. We used the Area under Curve (AUC) performance metric to examine performance. Results: We found an ensemble model of linear and logistic regression achieves a higher AUC compared related works in past years. After incorporating the gastrointestinal failure score along with the penalty function, our best performing ensemble model resulted in an additional improvement in terms of AUC metrics. We implemented and compared 36 different models that were built using both the information from the SOFA score as well as that of the gastrointestinal system. All compared models have approximately similar and relatively large AUC (between 0.8645 and 0.9146) with the best results are achieved by incorporating the gastrointestinal parameters into the prediction models. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that gastrointestinal parameters carry significant information as a mortality predictor in addition to the conventional SOFA score. This information improves the predictive power of machine learning models by extending the SOFA to include information related to gastrointestinal organ system. The described method improves mortality prediction by considering the dynamics of the extended SOFA score. Although tested on a limited data set, the results' stability across different models suggests robustness in real-time use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cancer driver genes, i.e., oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes, are involved in the acquisition of important functions in tumors, providing a selective growth advantage, allowing uncontrolled proliferation and avoiding apoptosis. It is therefore important to identify these driver genes, both for the fundamental understanding of cancer and to help finding new therapeutic targets or biomarkers. Although the most frequently mutated driver genes have been identified, it is believed that many more remain to be discovered, particularly for driver genes specific to some cancer types. In this paper, we propose a new computational method called LOTUS to predict new driver genes. LOTUS is a machine-learning based approach which allows to integrate various types of data in a versatile manner, including information about gene mutations and protein-protein interactions. In addition, LOTUS can predict cancer driver genes in a pan-cancer setting as well as for specific cancer types, using a multitask learning strategy to share information across cancer types. We empirically show that LOTUS outperforms five other state-of-the-art driver gene prediction methods, both in terms of intrinsic consistency and prediction accuracy, and provide predictions of new cancer genes across many cancer types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Filter or screening methods are often used as a preprocessing step for reducing the number of variables used by a learning algorithm in obtaining a classification or regression model. While there are many such filter methods, there is a need for an objective evaluation of these methods. Such an evaluation is needed to compare them with each other and also to answer whether they are at all useful, or a learning algorithm could do a better job without them. For this purpose, many popular screening methods are partnered in this paper with three regression learners and five classification learners and evaluated on ten real datasets to obtain accuracy criteria such as R-square and area under the ROC curve (AUC). The obtained results are compared through curve plots and comparison tables in order to find out whether screening methods help improve the performance of learning algorithms and how they fare with each other. Our findings revealed that the screening methods were useful in improving the prediction of the best learner on two regression and two classification datasets out of the ten datasets evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In transcriptomics, micro RNAs (miRNAs) has gained much interest especially as potential disease indicators. However, apart from holding a great promise related to their clinical application, a lot of inconsistent results have been published. Our aim was to compare the miRNA expression levels in ovarian cancer and healthy subjects using the Bayesian multilevel model and to assess their potential usefulness in diagnosis. We have analyzed a case-control observational data on expression profiling of 49 preselected miRNA-based ovarian cancer indicators in 119 controls and 59 patients. A Bayesian multilevel model was used to characterize the effect of disease on miRNA levels controlling for differences in age and body weight. The difference between the miRNA level and health status of the patient on the scale of the data variability were discussed in the context of their potential usefulness in diagnosis. Additionally, the cross-validated area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to assess the expected out-of-sample discrimination index of a different sets of miRNAs. The proposed model allowed us to describe the set of miRNA levels in patients and controls. Three highly correlated miRNAs: miR-101-3p, miR-142-5p, miR-148a-3p rank the highest with almost identical effect sizes that ranges from 0.45 to 1.0. For those miRNAs the credible interval for AUC ranged from 0.63 to 0.67 indicating their limited discrimination potential. A little benefit in adding information from other miRNAs was observed. There were several miRNAs in the dataset (miR-604, hsa-miR-221-5p) for which inferences were uncertain. For those miRNAs more experimental effort is needed to fully assess their effect in the context of new hits discovery and usefulness as disease indicators. The proposed multilevel Bayesian model can be used to characterize the panel of miRNA profile and to assess the difference in expression levels between healthy and cancer individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While there have been many studies using machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict process outcomes and device performance in semiconductor manufacturing, the extensively developed technology computer-aided design (TCAD) physical models should play a more significant role in conjunction with ML. While TCAD models have been effective in predicting the trends of experiments, a machine learning statistical model is more capable of predicting the anomalous effects that can be dependent on the chambers, machines, fabrication environment, and specific layouts. In this paper, we use an analytics-statistics mixed training (ASMT) approach using TCAD. Under this method, the TCAD models are incorporated into the machine learning training procedure. The mixed dataset with the experimental and TCAD results improved the prediction in terms of accuracy. With the application of ASMT to the BOSCH process, we show that the mean square error (MSE) can be effectively decreased when the analytics-statistics mixed training (ASMT) scheme is used instead of the classic neural network (NN) used in the baseline study. In this method, statistical induction and analytical deduction can be combined to increase the prediction accuracy of future intelligent semiconductor manufacturing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately predicting and testing the types of Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) of each patient using cost-effective microarray-based expression data and machine learning algorithms could greatly help either identifying the most targeting medicine or adopting other therapeutic measures that could correct/restore defective genetic signaling at the early stage. Furthermore, the prediction model construction processes can also help identifying highly informative genes controlling PAH, leading to enhanced understanding of the disease etiology and molecular pathways. In this study, we used several different gene filtering methods based on microarray expression data obtained from a high-quality patient PAH dataset. Following that, we proposed a novel feature selection and refinement algorithm in conjunction with well-known machine learning methods to identify a small set of highly informative genes. Results indicated that clusters of small-expression genes could be extremely informative at predicting and differentiating different forms of PAH. Additionally, our proposed novel feature refinement algorithm could lead to significant enhancement in model performance. To summarize, integrated with state-of-the-art machine learning and novel feature refining algorithms, the most accurate models could provide near-perfect classification accuracies using very few (close to ten) low-expression genes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key goal of precision medicine is predicting the best drug therapy for a specific patient from genomic information. In oncology, cancers that appear similar pathologically can vary greatly in how they respond to the same drug. Fortunately, data from high-throughput screening programs often reveal important relationships between genomic variability of cancer cells and their response to drugs. Nevertheless, many current computational methods to predict compound activity against cancer cells require large quantities of genomic, epigenomic, and additional cellular data to develop and to apply. Here we integrate recent screening data and machine learning to train classification models that predict the activity/inactivity of compounds against cancer cells based on the mutational status of only 145 oncogenes and a set of compound structural descriptors. Using IC50 values of 1 μM as activity cutoffs, our predictive models have sensitivities of 87%, specificities of 87%, and yield an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve equal to 0.94. We also develop regression models to predict log(IC50) values of compounds for cancer cells; the models achieve a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.86 for cross-validation and up to 0.65–0.73 against blind test sets. Predictive performance remains strong when as few as 50 oncogenes are included. Finally, even when 40% of experimental IC50 values are missing from screening data, they can be imputed with sufficient reliability that classification accuracy is not diminished. The presented models are fast to generate and may serve as easily implemented screening tools for personalized oncology medicine, drug repurposing, and drug discovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Omic data analysis is steadily growing as a driver of basic and applied molecular biology research. Core to the interpretation of complex and heterogeneous biological phenotypes are computational approaches in the fields of statistics and machine learning. In parallel, constraint-based metabolic modeling has established itself as the main tool to investigate large-scale relationships between genotype, phenotype, and environment. The development and application of these methodological frameworks have occurred independently for the most part, whereas the potential of their integration for biological, biomedical, and biotechnological research is less known. Here, we describe how machine learning and constraint-based modeling can be combined, reviewing recent works at the intersection of both domains and discussing the mathematical and practical aspects involved. We overlap systematic classifications from both frameworks, making them accessible to nonexperts. Finally, we delineate potential future scenarios, propose new joint theoretical frameworks, and suggest concrete points of investigation for this joint subfield. A multiview approach merging experimental and knowledge-driven omic data through machine learning methods can incorporate key mechanistic information in an otherwise biologically-agnostic learning process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) are highly prevalent conditions, and prior efforts to develop predictive models have relied on demographic and clinical risk factors using traditional logistical regression methods. We hypothesized that machine-learning algorithms using administrative claims data may represent a novel approach to predicting ADRD. Using a national de-identified dataset of more than 125 million patients including over 10,000 clinical, pharmaceutical, and demographic variables, we developed a cohort to train a machine learning model to predict ADRD 4–5 years in advance. The Lasso algorithm selected a 50-variable model with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.693. Top diagnosis codes in the model were memory loss (780.93), Parkinson’s disease (332.0), mild cognitive impairment (331.83) and bipolar disorder (296.80), and top pharmacy codes were psychoactive drugs. Machine learning algorithms can rapidly develop predictive models for ADRD with massive datasets, without requiring hypothesis-driven feature engineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbial communities are ubiquitous and often influence macroscopic properties of the ecosystems they inhabit. However, deciphering the functional relationship between specific microbes and ecosystem properties is an ongoing challenge owing to the complexity of the communities. This challenge can be addressed, in part, by integrating the advances in DNA sequencing technology with computational approaches like machine learning. Although machine learning techniques have been applied to microbiome data, use of these techniques remains rare, and user-friendly platforms to implement such techniques are not widely available. We developed a tool that implements neural network and random forest models to perform regression and feature selection tasks on microbiome data. In this study, we applied the tool to analyze soil microbiome (16S rRNA gene profiles) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) data from a 44-day plant litter decomposition experiment. The microbiome data includes 1709 total bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTU) from 300+ microcosms. Regression analysis of predicted and actual DOC for a held-out test set of 51 samples yield Pearson’s correlation coefficients of.636 and.676 for neural network and random forest approaches, respectively. Important taxa identified by the machine learning techniques are compared to results from a standard tool (indicator species analysis) widely used by microbial ecologists. Of 1709 bacterial taxa, indicator species analysis identified 285 taxa as significant determinants of DOC concentration. Of the top 285 ranked features determined by machine learning methods, a subset of 86 taxa are common to all feature selection techniques. Using this subset of features, prediction results for random permutations of the data set are at least equally accurate compared to predictions determined using the entire feature set. Our results suggest that integration of multiple methods can aid identification of a robust subset of taxa within complex communities that may drive specific functional outcomes of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) based measurements of retinal layer thickness, such as the retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) and the ganglion cell with inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) are commonly employed for the diagnosis and monitoring of glaucoma. Previously, machine learning techniques have relied on segmentation-based imaging features such as the peripapillary RNFL thickness and the cup-to-disc ratio. Here, we propose a deep learning technique that classifies eyes as healthy or glaucomatous directly from raw, unsegmented OCT volumes of the optic nerve head (ONH) using a 3D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). We compared the accuracy of this technique with various feature-based machine learning algorithms and demonstrated the superiority of the proposed deep learning based method. Logistic regression was found to be the best performing classical machine learning technique with an AUC of 0.89. In direct comparison, the deep learning approach achieved a substantially higher AUC of 0.94 with the additional advantage of providing insight into which regions of an OCT volume are important for glaucoma detection. Computing Class Activation Maps (CAM), we found that the CNN identified neuroretinal rim and optic disc cupping as well as the lamina cribrosa (LC) and its surrounding areas as the regions significantly associated with the glaucoma classification. These regions anatomically correspond to the well established and commonly used clinical markers for glaucoma diagnosis such as increased cup volume, cup diameter, and neuroretinal rim thinning at the superior and inferior segments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patterns of spatial behavior dictate how we use our infrastructure, encounter other people, or are exposed to services and opportunities. Understanding these patterns through the analysis of data commonly available through commodity smartphones has become an important arena for innovation in both academia and industry. The resulting datasets can quickly become massive, indicating the need for concise understanding of the scope of the data collected. Some data is obviously correlated (for example GPS location and which WiFi routers are seen). Codifying the extent of these correlations could identify potential new models, provide guidance on the amount of data to collect, and even provide actionable features. However, identifying correlations, or even the extent of correlation, is difficult because the form of the correlation must be specified. Fractal-based intrinsic dimensionality directly calculates the minimum number of dimensions required to represent a dataset. We provide an intrinsic dimensionality analysis of four smartphone datasets over seven input dimensions, and empirically demonstrate an intrinsic dimension of approximately two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study shows the feasibility of predicting firms’ expenditures in innovation, as reported in the Community Innovation Survey, applying a supervised machine-learning approach on a sample of Italian firms. Using an integrated dataset of administrative records and balance sheet data, designed to include all informative variables related to innovation but also easily accessible for most of the cohort, random forest algorithm is implemented to obtain a classification model aimed to identify firms that are potential innovation performers. The performance of the classifier, estimated in terms of AUC, is 0.794. Although innovation investments do not always result in patenting, the model is able to identify 71.92% of firms with patents. More encouraging results emerge from the analysis of the inner working of the model: predictors identified as most important—such as firm size, sector belonging and investment in intangible assets—confirm previous findings of literature, but in a completely different framework. The outcomes of this study are considered relevant for both economic analysts, because it demonstrates the potential of data-driven models for understanding the nature of innovation behaviour, and practitioners, such as policymakers or venture capitalists, who can benefit by evidence-based tools in the decision-making process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kernel regression models have been used as non-parametric methods for fitting experimental data. However, due to their non-parametric nature, they belong to the so-called “black box” models, indicating that the relation between the input variables and the output, depending on the kernel selection, is unknown. In this paper we propose a new methodology to retrieve the relation between each input regressor variable and the output in a least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) regression model. The method is based on oblique subspace projectors (ObSP), which allows to decouple the influence of input regressors on the output by including the undesired variables in the null space of the projection matrix. Such functional relations are represented by the nonlinear transformation of the input regressors, and their subspaces are estimated using appropriate kernel evaluations. We exploit the properties of ObSP in order to decompose the output of the obtained regression model as a sum of the partial nonlinear contributions and interaction effects of the input variables, we called this methodology Nonlinear ObSP (NObSP). We compare the performance of the proposed algorithm with the component selection and smooth operator (COSSO) for smoothing spline ANOVA models. We use as benchmark 2 toy examples and a real life regression model using the concrete strength dataset from the UCI machine learning repository. We showed that NObSP is able to outperform COSSO, producing stable estimations of the functional relations between the input regressors and the output, without the use of prior-knowledge. This methodology can be used in order to understand the functional relations between the inputs and the output in a regression model, retrieving the physical interpretation of the regression models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cell segmentation in microscopy is a challenging problem, since cells are often asymmetric and densely packed. Successful cell segmentation algorithms rely identifying seed points, and are highly sensitive to variablility in cell size. In this paper, we present an efficient and highly parallel formulation for symmetric three-dimensional contour evolution that extends previous work on fast two-dimensional snakes. We provide a formulation for optimization on 3D images, as well as a strategy for accelerating computation on consumer graphics hardware. The proposed software takes advantage of Monte-Carlo sampling schemes in order to speed up convergence and reduce thread divergence. Experimental results show that this method provides superior performance for large 2D and 3D cell localization tasks when compared to existing methods on large 3D brain images. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the prosperity of machine learning and cloud computing, meaningful information can be mined from mass electronic medical data which help physicians make proper disease diagnosis for patients. However, using medical data and disease information of patients frequently raise privacy concerns. In this paper, based on single-layer perceptron, we propose a scheme of privacy-preserving clinical decision with cloud support (PPCD), which securely conducts disease model training and prediction for the patient. Each party learns nothing about the other’s private information. In PPCD, a lightweight secure multiplication is presented and introduced to improve the model training. Security analysis and experimental results on real data confirm the high accuracy of disease prediction achieved by the proposed PPCD without the risk of privacy disclosure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of data clustering algorithms is mainly dependent on their ability to balance between the exploration and exploitation of the search process. Although some data clustering algorithms have achieved reasonable quality solutions for some datasets, their performance across real-life datasets could be improved. This paper proposes an adaptive memetic differential evolution optimisation algorithm (AMADE) for addressing data clustering problems. The memetic algorithm (MA) employs an adaptive differential evolution (DE) mutation strategy, which can offer superior mutation performance across many combinatorial and continuous problem domains. By hybridising an adaptive DE mutation operator with the MA, we propose that it can lead to faster convergence and better balance the exploration and exploitation of the search. We would also expect that the performance of AMADE to be better than MA and DE if executed separately. Our experimental results, based on several real-life benchmark datasets, shows that AMADE outperformed other compared clustering algorithms when compared using statistical analysis. We conclude that the hybridisation of MA and the adaptive DE is a suitable approach for addressing data clustering problems and can improve the balance between global exploration and local exploitation of the optimisation algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the challenge of mental health problems such as anxiety and depression increasing today, more convenient, objective, real-time assessing techniques of mental state are in need. The Microsoft Kinect camera is a possible option for contactlessly capturing human gait, which could reflect the walkers’ mental state. So we tried to propose a novel method for monitoring individual’s anxiety and depression based on the Kinect-recorded gait pattern. In this study, after finishing the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7) and the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), 179 participants were required to walked on the footpath naturally while shot by the Kinect cameras. Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT) were conducted to extract features from the Kinect-captured gait data after preprocessing, and different machine learning algorithms were used to train the regression models recognizing anxiety and depression levels, and the classification models detecting the cases with specific depressive symptoms. The predictive accuracies of the regression models achieved medium to large level: The correlation coefficient between predicted and questionnaire scores reached 0.51 on anxiety (by epsilon-Support Vector Regression, e-SVR) and 0.51 on depression (by Gaussian Processes, GP). The predictive accuracies could be even higher, 0.74 on anxiety (by GP) and 0.64 on depression (by GP), while training and testing the models on the female sample. The classification models also showed effectiveness on detecting the cases with some symptoms. These results demonstrate the possibility to recognize individual’s questionnaire measured anxiety/depression levels and some depressive symptoms based on Kinect-recorded gait data through machine learning method. This approach shows the potential to develop non-intrusive, low-cost methods for monitoring individuals’ mental health in real time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Machine learning techniques have demonstrated superior discrimination compared to conventional statistical approaches in predicting trauma death. The objective of this study is to evaluate whether machine learning algorithms can be used to assess risk and dynamically identify patient-specific modifiable factors critical to patient trajectory for multiple key outcomes after severe injury. Methods: SuperLearner, an ensemble machine-learning algorithm, was applied to prospective observational cohort data from 1494 critically-injured patients. Over 1000 agnostic predictors were used to generate prediction models from multiple candidate learners for outcomes of interest at serial time points post-injury. Model accuracy was estimated using cross-validation and area under the curve was compared to select among predictors. Clinical variables responsible for driving outcomes were estimated at each time point. Results: SuperLearner fits demonstrated excellent cross-validated prediction of death (overall AUC 0.94–0.97), multi-organ failure (overall AUC 0.84–0.90), and transfusion (overall AUC 0.87–0.9) across multiple post-injury time points, and good prediction of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (overall AUC 0.84–0.89) and venous thromboembolism (overall AUC 0.73–0.83). Outcomes with inferior data quality included coagulopathic trajectory (AUC 0.48–0.88). Key clinical predictors evolved over the post-injury timecourse and included both anticipated and unexpected variables. Non-random missingness of data was identified as a predictor of multiple outcomes over time. Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms can be used to generate dynamic prediction after injury while avoiding the risk of over- and under-fitting inherent in ad hoc statistical approaches. SuperLearner prediction after injury demonstrates promise as an adaptable means of helping clinicians integrate voluminous, evolving data on severely-injured patients into real-time, dynamic decision-making support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High dimensional biomedical data contain tens of thousands of features, accurate and effective identification of the core features in these data can be used to assist diagnose related diseases. However, there are often a large number of irrelevant or redundant features in biomedical data, which seriously affect subsequent classification accuracy and machine learning efficiency. To solve this problem, a novel filter feature selection algorithm based on redundant removal (FSBRR) is proposed to classify high dimensional biomedical data in this paper. First of all, two redundant criteria are determined by vertical relevance (the relationship between feature and class attribute) and horizontal relevance (the relationship between feature and feature). Secondly, to quantify redundant criteria, an approximate redundancy feature framework based on mutual information (MI) is defined to remove redundant and irrelevant features. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm, controlled trials based on typical feature selection algorithm are conducted using three different classifiers, and the experimental results indicate that the FSBRR algorithm can effectively reduce the feature dimension and improve the classification accuracy. In addition, an experiment of small sample dataset is designed and conducted in the section of discussion and analysis to clarify the specific implementation process of FSBRR algorithm more clearly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To determine if deep learning networks could be trained to forecast future 24–2 Humphrey Visual Fields (HVFs). Methods: All data points from consecutive 24–2 HVFs from 1998 to 2018 were extracted from a university database. Ten-fold cross validation with a held out test set was used to develop the three main phases of model development: model architecture selection, dataset combination selection, and time-interval model training with transfer learning, to train a deep learning artificial neural network capable of generating a point-wise visual field prediction. The point-wise mean absolute error (PMAE) and difference in Mean Deviation (MD) between predicted and actual future HVF were calculated. Results: More than 1.7 million perimetry points were extracted to the hundredth decibel from 32,443 24–2 HVFs. The best performing model with 20 million trainable parameters, CascadeNet-5, was selected. The overall point-wise PMAE for the test set was 2.47 dB (95% CI: 2.45 dB to 2.48 dB), and deep learning showed a statistically significant improvement over linear models. The 100 fully trained models successfully predicted future HVFs in glaucomatous eyes up to 5.5 years in the future with a correlation of 0.92 between the MD of predicted and actual future HVF and an average difference of 0.41 dB. Conclusions: Using unfiltered real-world datasets, deep learning networks show the ability to not only learn spatio-temporal HVF changes but also to generate predictions for future HVFs up to 5.5 years, given only a single HVF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: We propose a bottom-up, machine-learning approach, for the objective vestibular and balance diagnostic data of concussion patients, to provide insight into the differences in patients’ phenotypes, independent of existing diagnoses (unsupervised learning). Methods: Diagnostic data from a battery of validated balance and vestibular assessments were extracted from the database of the Swiss Concussion Center. The desired number of clusters within the patient database was estimated using Calinski-Harabasz criteria. Complex (self-organizing map, SOM) and standard (k-means) clustering tools were used, and the formed clusters were compared. Results: A total of 96 patients (81.3% male, age (median [IQR]): 25.0[10.8]) who were expected to suffer from sports-related concussion or post-concussive syndrome (52[140] days between diagnostic testing and the concussive episode) were included. The cluster evaluation indicated dividing the data into two groups. Only the SOM gave a stable clustering outcome, dividing the patients in group-1 (n = 38) and group-2 (n = 58). A large significant difference was found for the caloric summary score for the maximal speed of the slow phase, where group-1 scored 30.7% lower than group-2 (27.6[18.2] vs. 51.0[31.0]). Group-1 also scored significantly lower on the sensory organisation test composite score (69.0[22.3] vs. 79.0[10.5]) and higher on the visual acuity (-0.03[0.33] vs. -0.14[0.12]) and dynamic visual acuity (0.38[0.84] vs. 0.20[0.20]) tests. The importance of caloric, SOT and DVA, was supported by the PCA outcomes. Group-1 tended to report headaches, blurred vision and balance problems more frequently than group-2 (>10% difference). Conclusion: The SOM divided the data into one group with prominent vestibular disorders and another with no clear vestibular or balance problems, suggesting that artificial intelligence might help improve the diagnostic process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying university students’ weaknesses results in better learning and can function as an early warning system to enable students to improve. However, the satisfaction level of existing systems is not promising. New and dynamic hybrid systems are needed to imitate this mechanism. A hybrid system (a modified Recurrent Neural Network with an adapted Grey Wolf Optimizer) is used to forecast students’ outcomes. This proposed system would improve instruction by the faculty and enhance the students’ learning experiences. The results show that a modified recurrent neural network with an adapted Grey Wolf Optimizer has the best accuracy when compared with other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recidivism prediction context, there is no consensus on which modeling strategy should be followed for obtaining an optimal prediction model. In previous papers, a range of statistical and machine learning techniques were benchmarked on recidivism data with a binary outcome. However, two important tree ensemble methods, namely gradient boosting and random forests were not extensively evaluated. In this paper, we further explore the modeling potential of these techniques in the binary outcome criminal prediction context. Additionally, we explore the predictive potential of classical statistical and machine learning methods for censored time-to-event data. A range of statistical manually specified statistical and (semi-)automatic machine learning models is fitted on Dutch recidivism data, both for the binary outcome case and censored outcome case. To enhance generalizability of results, the same models are applied to two historical American data sets, the North Carolina prison data. For all datasets, (semi-) automatic modeling in the binary case seems to provide no improvement over an appropriately manually specified traditional statistical model. There is however evidence of slightly improved performance of gradient boosting in survival data. Results on the reconviction data from two sources suggest that both statistical and machine learning should be tried out for obtaining an optimal model. Even if a flexible black-box model does not improve upon the predictions of a manually specified model, it can serve as a test whether important interactions are missing or other misspecification of the model are present and can thus provide more security in the modeling process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Globally, preterm birth is the leading cause of neonatal death with estimated prevalence and associated mortality highest in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Accurate identification of preterm infants is important at the individual level for appropriate clinical intervention as well as at the population level for informed policy decisions and resource allocation. As early prenatal ultrasound is commonly not available in these settings, gestational age (GA) is often estimated using newborn assessment at birth. This approach assumes last menstrual period to be unreliable and birthweight to be unable to distinguish preterm infants from those that are small for gestational age (SGA). We sought to leverage machine learning algorithms incorporating maternal factors associated with SGA to improve accuracy of preterm newborn identification in LMIC settings. Methods and findings: This study uses data from an ongoing obstetrical cohort in Lusaka, Zambia that uses early pregnancy ultrasound to estimate GA. Our intent was to identify the best set of parameters commonly available at delivery to correctly categorize births as either preterm (<37 weeks) or term, compared to GA assigned by early ultrasound as the gold standard. Trained midwives conducted a newborn assessment (<72 hours) and collected maternal and neonatal data at the time of delivery or shortly thereafter. New Ballard Score (NBS), last menstrual period (LMP), and birth weight were used individually to assign GA at delivery and categorize each birth as either preterm or term. Additionally, machine learning techniques incorporated combinations of these measures with several maternal and newborn characteristics associated with prematurity and SGA to develop GA at delivery and preterm birth prediction models. The distribution and accuracy of all models were compared to early ultrasound dating. Within our live-born cohort to date (n = 862), the median GA at delivery by early ultrasound was 39.4 weeks (IQR: 38.3–40.3). Among assessed newborns with complete data included in this analysis (n = 468), the median GA by ultrasound was 39.6 weeks (IQR: 38.4–40.3). Using machine learning, we identified a combination of six accessible parameters (LMP, birth weight, twin delivery, maternal height, hypertension in labor, and HIV serostatus) that can be used by machine learning to outperform current GA prediction methods. For preterm birth prediction, this combination of covariates correctly classified >94% of newborns and achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.9796. Conclusions: We identified a parsimonious list of variables that can be used by machine learning approaches to improve accuracy of preterm newborn identification. Our best-performing model included LMP, birth weight, twin delivery, HIV serostatus, and maternal factors associated with SGA. These variables are all easily collected at delivery, reducing the skill and time required by the frontline health worker to assess GA. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In an intensive care units, experts in mechanical ventilation are not continuously at patient’s bedside to adjust ventilation settings and to analyze the impact of these adjustments on gas exchange. The development of clinical decision support systems analyzing patients’ data in real time offers an opportunity to fill this gap. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine whether a machine learning predictive model could be trained on a set of clinical data and used to predict transcutaneous hemoglobin oxygen saturation 5 min (5min SpO2) after a ventilator setting change. Data sources: Data of mechanically ventilated children admitted between May 2015 and April 2017 were included and extracted from a high-resolution research database. More than 776,727 data rows were obtained from 610 patients, discretized into 3 class labels (< 84%, 85% to 91% and c92% to 100%). Performance metrics of predictive models: Due to data imbalance, four different data balancing processes were applied. Then, two machine learning models (artificial neural network and Bootstrap aggregation of complex decision trees) were trained and tested on these four different balanced datasets. The best model predicted SpO2 with area under the curves < 0.75. Conclusion: This single center pilot study using machine learning predictive model resulted in an algorithm with poor accuracy. The comparison of machine learning models showed that bagged complex trees was a promising approach. However, there is a need to improve these models before incorporating them into a clinical decision support systems. One potentially solution for improving predictive model, would be to increase the amount of data available to limit over-fitting that is potentially one of the cause for poor classification performances for 2 of the three class labels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Place cells in the mammalian hippocampus signal self-location with sparse spatially stable firing fields. Based on observation of place cell activity it is possible to accurately decode an animal’s location. The precision of this decoding sets a lower bound for the amount of information that the hippocampal population conveys about the location of the animal. In this work we use a novel recurrent neural network (RNN) decoder to infer the location of freely moving rats from single unit hippocampal recordings. RNNs are biologically plausible models of neural circuits that learn to incorporate relevant temporal context without the need to make complicated assumptions about the use of prior information to predict the current state. When decoding animal position from spike counts in 1D and 2D-environments, we show that the RNN consistently outperforms a standard Bayesian approach with either flat priors or with memory. In addition, we also conducted a set of sensitivity analysis on the RNN decoder to determine which neurons and sections of firing fields were the most influential. We found that the application of RNNs to neural data allowed flexible integration of temporal context, yielding improved accuracy relative to the more commonly used Bayesian approaches and opens new avenues for exploration of the neural code. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In general, the stock prices of the same industry have a similar trend, but those of different industries do not. When investing in stocks of different industries, one should select the optimal model from lots of trading models for each industry because any model may not be suitable for capturing the stock trends of all industries. However, the study has not been carried out at present. In this paper, firstly we select 424 S&P 500 index component stocks (SPICS) and 185 CSI 300 index component stocks (CSICS) as the research objects from 2010 to 2017, divide them into 9 industries such as finance and energy respectively. Secondly, we apply 12 widely used machine learning algorithms to generate stock trading signals in different industries and execute the back-testing based on the trading signals. Thirdly, we use a non-parametric statistical test to evaluate whether there are significant differences among the trading performance evaluation indicators (PEI) of different models in the same industry. Finally, we propose a series of rules to select the optimal models for stock investment of every industry. The analytical results on SPICS and CSICS show that we can find the optimal trading models for each industry based on the statistical tests and the rules. Most importantly, the PEI of the best algorithms can be significantly better than that of the benchmark index and “Buy and Hold” strategy. Therefore, the algorithms can be used for making profits from industry stock trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Exhaled aerosols from lungs have unique patterns, and their variation can be correlated to the underlying lung structure and associated abnormities. However, it is challenging to characterize such aerosol patterns and differentiate their difference because of their complexity. This challenge is even greater for small airway diseases, where the disturbance signals are weak. Objectives and methods: The objective of this study is exploiting different feature extraction algorithms to develop a practical classifier to diagnose obstructive lung diseases using exhaled aerosol images. These include proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), principal component analysis (PCA), dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), and DMD with control (DMDC). Aerosol images were generated via physiology-based simulations in one normal and four diseased airway models in G7-9 bronchioles. The image data were classified using both the support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) algorithms. The effectiveness of different features was evaluated by classification accuracy and misclassification rate. Findings: Results show a significantly higher performance using dynamic feature extractions (DMD and DMDC) than static algorithms (POD and PCA). Adding the control variables to DMD further improved classification accuracy. Comparing the classification methods, RF persistently outperformed SVM for all types of features considered. While the performance of RF constantly increased with the number of features retained, the performance of SVM peaked at 50 and decreased thereafter. The 5-class classification accuracy was 94.8% using the DMDC-RF model and 93.0% using the DMD-RF model, both of which were higher than 87.0% in the previous study that used fractal dimension features. Conclusion: Considering that disease progression is inherently a dynamic process, DMD(C)-based feature extraction preserves temporal information and is preferred over POD and PCA. Compared with hand-crafted features like fractals, feature extraction by DMD and DMDC is automatic and more accurate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early prediction of the potential for neurological recovery after resuscitation from cardiac arrest is difficult but important. Currently, no clinical finding or combination of findings are sufficient to accurately predict or preclude favorable recovery of comatose patients in the first 24 to 48 hours after resuscitation. Thus, life-sustaining therapy is often continued for several days in patients whose irrecoverable injury is not yet recognized. Conversely, early withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy increases mortality among patients who otherwise might have gone on to recover. In this work, we present Canonical Autocorrelation Analysis (CAA) and Canonical Autocorrelation Embeddings (CAE), novel methods suitable for identifying complex patterns in high-resolution multivariate data often collected in highly monitored clinical environments such as intensive care units. CAE embeds sets of datapoints onto a space that characterizes their latent correlation structures and allows direct comparison of these structures through the use of a distance metric. The methodology may be particularly suitable when the unit of analysis is not just an individual datapoint but a dataset, as for instance in patients for whom physiological measures are recorded over time, and where changes of correlation patterns in these datasets are informative for the task at hand. We present a proof of concept to illustrate the potential utility of CAE by applying it to characterize electroencephalographic recordings from 80 comatose survivors of cardiac arrest, aiming to identify patients who will survive to hospital discharge with favorable functional recovery. Our results show that with very low probability of making a Type 1 error, we are able to identify 32.5% of patients who are likely to have a good neurological outcome, some of whom have otherwise unfavorable clinical characteristics. Importantly, some of these had 5% predicted chance of favorable recovery based on initial illness severity measures alone. Providing this information to support clinical decision-making could motivate the continuation of life-sustaining therapies for these patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many real-world systems can be studied in terms of pattern recognition tasks, so that proper use (and understanding) of machine learning methods in practical applications becomes essential. While many classification methods have been proposed, there is no consensus on which methods are more suitable for a given dataset. As a consequence, it is important to comprehensively compare methods in many possible scenarios. In this context, we performed a systematic comparison of 9 well-known clustering methods available in the R language assuming normally distributed data. In order to account for the many possible variations of data, we considered artificial datasets with several tunable properties (number of classes, separation between classes, etc). In addition, we also evaluated the sensitivity of the clustering methods with regard to their parameters configuration. The results revealed that, when considering the default configurations of the adopted methods, the spectral approach tended to present particularly good performance. We also found that the default configuration of the adopted implementations was not always accurate. In these cases, a simple approach based on random selection of parameters values proved to be a good alternative to improve the performance. All in all, the reported approach provides subsidies guiding the choice of clustering algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying patients with rare diseases associated with common symptoms is challenging. Hunter syndrome, or Mucopolysaccharidosis type II is a progressive rare disease caused by a deficiency in the activity of the lysosomal enzyme, iduronate 2-sulphatase. It is inherited in an X-linked manner resulting in males being significantly affected. Expression in females varies with the majority being unaffected although symptoms may emerge over time. We developed a Naïve Bayes classification (NBC) algorithm utilizing the clinical diagnosis and symptoms of patients contained within their de-identified and unstructured electronic medical records (EMR) extracted by the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network (CPCSSN). To do so, we created a training dataset using published results in the scientific literature and from all MPS II symptoms and applied the training dataset and its independent features to compute the conditional posterior probabilities of having MPS II disease as a categorical dependent variable for 506497 male patients. The classifier identified 125 patients with the highest likelihood for having the disease and 18 features were selected to be necessary for forecasting. Next, a Recursive Backward Feature Elimination algorithm was employed, for optimal input features of the NBC model, using a k-fold Cross-Validation with 3 replicates. The accuracy of the final model was estimated by the Validation Set Approach technique and the bootstrap resampling. We also investigated that whether the NBC is as accurate as three other Bayesian networks. The Naïve Bayes Classifier appears to be an efficient algorithm in assisting physicians with the diagnosis of Hunter syndrome allowing optimal patient management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce the CDRP (Concatenated Diagnostic-Relapse Prognostic) architecture for multi-task deep learning that incorporates a clinical algorithm, e.g., a risk stratification schema to improve prognostic profiling. We present the first application to survival prediction in High-Risk (HR) Neuroblastoma from transcriptomics data, a task that studies from the MAQC consortium have shown to remain the hardest among multiple diagnostic and prognostic endpoints predictable from the same dataset. To obtain a more accurate risk stratification needed for appropriate treatment strategies, CDRP combines a first component (CDRP-A) synthesizing a diagnostic task and a second component (CDRP-N) dedicated to one or more prognostic tasks. The approach leverages the advent of semi-supervised deep learning structures that can flexibly integrate multimodal data or internally create multiple processing paths. CDRP-A is an autoencoder trained on gene expression on the HR/non-HR risk stratification by the Children’s Oncology Group, obtaining a 64-node representation in the bottleneck layer. CDRP-N is a multi-task classifier for two prognostic endpoints, i.e., Event-Free Survival (EFS) and Overall Survival (OS). CDRP-A provides the HR embedding input to the CDRP-N shared layer, from which two branches depart to model EFS and OS, respectively. To control for selection bias, CDRP is trained and evaluated using a Data Analysis Protocol (DAP) developed within the MAQC initiative. CDRP was applied on Illumina RNA-Seq of 498 Neuroblastoma patients (HR: 176) from the SEQC study (12,464 Entrez genes) and on Affymetrix Human Exon Array expression profiles (17,450 genes) of 247 primary diagnostic Neuroblastoma of the TARGET NBL cohort. On the SEQC HR patients, CDRP achieves Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) 0.38 for EFS and MCC = 0.19 for OS in external validation, improving over published SEQC models. We show that a CDRP-N embedding is indeed parametrically associated to increasing severity and the embedding can be used to better stratify patients’ survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The gold standard for pediatric sleep apnea hypopnea syndrome (SAHS) is overnight polysomnography, which has several limitations. Thus, simplified diagnosis techniques become necessary. Objective: The aim of this study is twofold: (i) to analyze the blood oxygen saturation (SpO2) signal from nocturnal oximetry by means of features from the wavelet transform in order to characterize pediatric SAHS; (ii) to evaluate the usefulness of the extracted features to assist in the detection of pediatric SAHS. Methods: 981 SpO2 signals from children ranging 2–13 years of age were used. Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) was employed due to its suitability to deal with non-stationary signals as well as the ability to analyze the SAHS-related low frequency components of the SpO2 signal with high resolution. In addition, 3% oxygen desaturation index (ODI3), statistical moments and power spectral density (PSD) features were computed. Fast correlation-based filter was applied to select a feature subset. This subset fed three classifiers (logistic regression, support vector machines (SVM), and multilayer perceptron) trained to determine the presence of moderate-to-severe pediatric SAHS (apnea-hypopnea index cutoff ≥ 5 events per hour). Results: The wavelet entropy and features computed in the D9 detail level of the DWT reached significant differences associated with the presence of SAHS. All the proposed classifiers fed with a selected feature subset composed of ODI3, statistical moments, PSD, and DWT features outperformed every single feature. SVM reached the highest performance. It achieved 84.0% accuracy (71.9% sensitivity, 91.1% specificity), outperforming state-of-the-art studies in the detection of moderate-to-severe SAHS using the SpO2 signal alone. Conclusion: Wavelet analysis could be a reliable tool to analyze the oximetry signal in order to assist in the automated detection of moderate-to-severe pediatric SAHS. Hence, pediatric subjects suffering from moderate-to-severe SAHS could benefit from an accurate simplified screening test only using the SpO2 signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Resuscitated cardiac arrest is associated with high mortality; however, the ability to estimate risk of adverse outcomes using existing illness severity scores is limited. Using in-hospital data available within the first 24 hours of admission, we aimed to develop more accurate models of risk prediction using both logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) techniques, with a combination of demographic, physiologic, and biochemical information.Methods and Findings: Patient-level data were extracted from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Adult Patient Database for patients who had experienced a cardiac arrest within 24 hours prior to admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) during the period January 2006 to December 2016. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The models were trained and tested on a dataset (split 90:10) including age, lowest and highest physiologic variables during the first 24 hours, and key past medical history. LR and 5 ML approaches (gradient boosting machine [GBM], support vector classifier [SVC], random forest [RF], artificial neural network [ANN], and an ensemble) were compared to the APACHE III and Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death (ANZROD) predictions. In all, 39,566 patients from 186 ICUs were analysed. Mean (±SD) age was 61 ± 17 years; 65% were male. Overall in-hospital mortality was 45.5%. Models were evaluated in the test set. The APACHE III and ANZROD scores demonstrated good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.80 [95% CI 0.79-0.82] and 0.81 [95% CI 0.8-0.82], respectively) and modest calibration (Brier score 0.19 for both), which was slightly improved by LR (AUROC = 0.82 [95% CI 0.81-0.83], DeLong test, p < 0.001). Discrimination was significantly improved using ML models (ensemble and GBM AUROCs = 0.87 [95% CI 0.86-0.88], DeLong test, p < 0.001), with an improvement in performance (Brier score reduction of 22%). Explainability models were created to assist in identifying the physiologic features that most contributed to an individual patient's survival. Key limitations include the absence of pre-hospital data and absence of external validation.Conclusions: ML approaches significantly enhance predictive discrimination for mortality following cardiac arrest compared to existing illness severity scores and LR, without the use of pre-hospital data. The discriminative ability of these ML models requires validation in external cohorts to establish generalisability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper, based on differential privacy protecting K-means clustering algorithm, realizes privacy protection by adding data-disturbing Laplace noise to cluster center point. In order to solve the problem of Laplace noise randomness which causes the center point to deviate, especially when poor availability of clustering results appears because of small privacy budget parameters, an improved differential privacy protecting K-means clustering algorithm was raised in this paper. The improved algorithm uses the contour coefficients to quantitatively evaluate the clustering effect of each iteration and add different noise to different clusters. In order to be adapted to the huge number of data, this paper provides an algorithm design in MapReduce Framework. Experimental finding shows that the new algorithm improves the availability of the algorithm clustering results under the condition of ensuring individual privacy without significantly increasing its operating time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prognostication is an essential tool for risk adjustment and decision making in the intensive care unit (ICU). Research into prognostication in ICU has so far been limited to data from admission or the first 24 hours. Most ICU admissions last longer than this, decisions are made throughout an admission, and some admissions are explicitly intended as time-limited prognostic trials. Despite this, temporal changes in prognostic ability during ICU admission has received little attention to date. Current predictive models, in the form of prognostic clinical tools, are typically derived from linear models and do not explicitly handle incremental information from trends. Machine learning (ML) allows predictive models to be developed which use non-linear predictors and complex interactions between variables, thus allowing incorporation of trends in measured variables over time; this has made it possible to investigate prognosis throughout an admission. Methods and findings: This study uses ML to assess the predictability of ICU mortality as a function of time. Logistic regression against physiological data alone outperformed APACHE-II and demonstrated several important interactions including between lactate & noradrenaline dose, between lactate & MAP, and between age & MAP consistent with the current sepsis definitions. ML models consistently outperformed logistic regression with Deep Learning giving the best results. Predictive power was maximal on the second day and was further improved by incorporating trend data. Using a limited range of physiological and demographic variables, the best machine learning model on the first day showed an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.883 (σ = 0.008), compared to 0.846 (σ = 0.010) for a logistic regression from the same predictors and 0.836 (σ = 0.007) for a logistic regression based on the APACHE-II score. Adding information gathered on the second day of admission improved the maximum AUC to 0.895 (σ = 0.008). Beyond the second day, predictive ability declined. Conclusion: This has implications for decision making in intensive care and provides a justification for time-limited trials of ICU therapy; the assessment of prognosis over more than one day may be a valuable strategy as new information on the second day helps to differentiate outcomes. New ML models based on trend data beyond the first day could greatly improve upon current risk stratification tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implantable-cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) detect and terminate life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmia with electric shocks after they occur. This puts patients at risk if they are driving or in a situation where they can fall. ICD’s shocks are also very painful and affect a patient’s quality of life. It would be ideal if ICDs can accurately predict the occurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmia and then issue a warning or provide preventive therapy. Our study explores the use of ICD data to automatically predict ventricular arrhythmia using heart rate variability (HRV). A 5 minute and a 10 second warning system are both developed and compared. The participants for this study consist of 788 patients who were enrolled in the ICD arm of the Sudden Cardiac Death–Heart Failure Trial (SCD-HeFT). Two groups of patient rhythms, regular heart rhythms and pre-ventricular-tachyarrhythmic rhythms, are analyzed and different HRV features are extracted. Machine learning algorithms, including random forests (RF) and support vector machines (SVM), are trained on these features to classify the two groups of rhythms in a subset of the data comprising the training set. These algorithms are then used to classify rhythms in a separate test set. This performance is quantified by the area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curve. Both RF and SVM methods achieve a mean AUC of 0.81 for 5-minute prediction and mean AUC of 0.87–0.88 for 10-second prediction; an AUC over 0.8 typically warrants further clinical investigation. Our work shows that moderate classification accuracy can be achieved to predict ventricular tachyarrhythmia with machine learning algorithms using HRV features from ICD data. These results provide a realistic view of the practical challenges facing implementation of machine learning algorithms to predict ventricular tachyarrhythmia using HRV data, motivating continued research on improved algorithms and additional features with higher predictive power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The clinical evaluation of a burn wound alone may not be adequate to predict the severity of the injury nor to guide clinical decision making. Infrared thermography provides information about soft tissue viability and has previously been used to assess burn depth. The objective of this study was to determine if temperature differences in burns assessed by infrared thermography could be used predict the treatment modality of either healing by re-epithelization, requiring skin grafts, or requiring amputations, and to validate the clinical predication algorithm in an independent cohort. Methods and findings: Temperature difference (ΔT) between injured and healthy skin were recorded within the first three days after injury in previously healthy burn patients. After discharge, the treatment modality was categorized as re-epithelization, skin graft or amputation. Potential confounding factors were assessed through multiple linear regression models, and a prediction algorithm based on the ΔT was developed using a predictive model using a recursive partitioning Random Forest machine learning algorithm. Finally, the prediction accuracy of the algorithm was compared in the development cohort and an independent validation cohort. Significant differences were found in the ΔT between treatment modality groups. The developed algorithm correctly predicts into which treatment category the patient will fall with 85.35% accuracy. Agreement between predicted and actual treatment for both cohorts was weighted kappa 90%. Conclusion: Infrared thermograms obtained at first contact with a wounded patient can be used to accurately predict the definitive treatment modality for burn patients. This method can be used to rationalize treatment and streamline early wound closure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We developed an unsupervised machine learning algorithm and applied it to big corneal parameters to identify and monitor keratoconus stages. A big dataset of corneal swept source optical coherence tomography (OCT) images of 12,242 eyes acquired from SS-1000 CASIA OCT Imaging Systems in multiple centers across Japan was assembled. A total of 3,156 eyes with valid Ectasia Status Index (ESI) between zero and 100% were selected for the downstream analysis. Four hundred and twenty corneal topography, elevation, and pachymetry parameters (excluding ESI Keratoconus indices) were selected. The algorithm included three major steps. 1) Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to linearly reduce the dimensionality of the input data from 420 to eight significant principal components. 2) Manifold learning was used to further reducing the selected principal components nonlinearly to two eigen-parameters. 3) Finally, a density-based clustering was applied to the eigen-parameters to identify eyes with keratoconus. Visualization of clusters in 2-D space was used to validate the quality of learning subjectively and ESI was used to assess the accuracy of the identified clusters objectively. The proposed method identified four clusters; I: a cluster composed of mostly normal eyes (224 eyes with ESI equal to zero, 23 eyes with ESI between five and 29, and nine eyes with ESI greater than 29), II: a cluster composed of mostly healthy eyes and eyes with forme fruste keratoconus (1772 eyes with ESI equal to zero, 698 eyes with ESI between five and 29, and 117 eyes with ESI greater than 29), III: a cluster composed of mostly eyes with mild keratoconus stage (184 eyes with ESI greater than 29, 74 eyes with ESI between five and 29, and 6 eyes with ESI equal to zero), and IV: a cluster composed of eyes with mostly advanced keratoconus stage (80 eyes had ESI greater than 29 and 1 eye had ESI between five and 29). We found that keratoconus status and severity can be well identified using unsupervised machine learning algorithms along with linear and non-linear corneal data transformation. The proposed method can better identify and visualize the keratoconus stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Electronic medical records provide large-scale real-world clinical data for use in developing clinical decision systems. However, sophisticated methodology and analytical skills are required to handle the large-scale datasets necessary for the optimisation of prediction accuracy. Myopia is a common cause of vision loss. Current approaches to control myopia progression are effective but have significant side effects. Therefore, identifying those at greatest risk who should undergo targeted therapy is of great clinical importance. The objective of this study was to apply big data and machine learning technology to develop an algorithm that can predict the onset of high myopia, at specific future time points, among Chinese school-aged children. Methods and findings: Real-world clinical refraction data were derived from electronic medical record systems in 8 ophthalmic centres from January 1, 2005, to December 30, 2015. The variables of age, spherical equivalent (SE), and annual progression rate were used to develop an algorithm to predict SE and onset of high myopia (SE ≤ −6.0 dioptres) up to 10 years in the future. Random forest machine learning was used for algorithm training and validation. Electronic medical records from the Zhongshan Ophthalmic Centre (a major tertiary ophthalmic centre in China) were used as the training set. Ten-fold cross-validation and out-of-bag (OOB) methods were applied for internal validation. The remaining 7 independent datasets were used for external validation. Two population-based datasets, which had no participant overlap with the ophthalmic-centre-based datasets, were used for multi-resource validation testing. The main outcomes and measures were the area under the curve (AUC) values for predicting the onset of high myopia over 10 years and the presence of high myopia at 18 years of age. In total, 687,063 multiple visit records (≥3 records) of 129,242 individuals in the ophthalmic-centre-based electronic medical record databases and 17,113 follow-up records of 3,215 participants in population-based cohorts were included in the analysis. Our algorithm accurately predicted the presence of high myopia in internal validation (the AUC ranged from 0.903 to 0.986 for 3 years, 0.875 to 0.901 for 5 years, and 0.852 to 0.888 for 8 years), external validation (the AUC ranged from 0.874 to 0.976 for 3 years, 0.847 to 0.921 for 5 years, and 0.802 to 0.886 for 8 years), and multi-resource testing (the AUC ranged from 0.752 to 0.869 for 4 years). With respect to the prediction of high myopia development by 18 years of age, as a surrogate of high myopia in adulthood, the algorithm provided clinically acceptable accuracy over 3 years (the AUC ranged from 0.940 to 0.985), 5 years (the AUC ranged from 0.856 to 0.901), and even 8 years (the AUC ranged from 0.801 to 0.837). Meanwhile, our algorithm achieved clinically acceptable prediction of the actual refraction values at future time points, which is supported by the regressive performance and calibration curves. Although the algorithm achieved balanced and robust performance, concerns about the compromised quality of real-world clinical data and over-fitting issues should be cautiously considered. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this study, for the first time, used large-scale data collected from electronic health records to demonstrate the contribution of big data and machine learning approaches to improved prediction of myopia prognosis in Chinese school-aged children. This work provides evidence for transforming clinical practice, health policy-making, and precise individualised interventions regarding the practical control of school-aged myopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Archaeologists often need to date and group artifact types to discern typologies, chronologies, and classifications. For over a century, statisticians have been using classification and clustering techniques to infer patterns in data that can be defined by algorithms. In the case of archaeology, linear regression algorithms are often used to chronologically date features and sites, and pattern recognition is used to develop typologies and classifications. However, archaeological data is often expensive to collect, and analyses are often limited by poor sample sizes and datasets. Here we show that recent advances in computation allow archaeologists to use machine learning based on much of the same statistical theory to address more complex problems using increased computing power and larger and incomplete datasets. This paper approaches the problem of predicting the chronology of archaeological sites through a case study of medieval temples in Angkor, Cambodia. For this study, we have a large dataset of temples with known architectural elements and artifacts; however, less than ten percent of the sample of temples have known dates, and much of the attribute data is incomplete. Our results suggest that the algorithms can predict dates for temples from 821–1150 CE with a 49-66-year average absolute error. We find that this method surpasses traditional supervised and unsupervised statistical approaches for under-specified portions of the dataset and is a promising new method for anthropological inquiry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warfarin dosing remains challenging due to narrow therapeutic index and highly individual variability. Incorrect warfarin dosing is associated with devastating adverse events. Remarkable efforts have been made to develop the machine learning based warfarin dosing algorithms incorporating clinical factors and genetic variants such as polymorphisms in CYP2C9 and VKORC1. The most widely validated pharmacogenetic algorithm is the IWPC algorithm based on multivariate linear regression (MLR). However, with only a single algorithm, the prediction performance may reach an upper limit even with optimal parameters. Here, we present novel algorithms using stacked generalization frameworks to estimate the warfarin dose, within which different types of machine learning algorithms function together through a meta-machine learning model to maximize the prediction accuracy. Compared to the IWPC-derived MLR algorithm, Stack 1 and 2 based on stacked generalization frameworks performed significantly better overall. Subgroup analysis revealed that the mean of the percentage of patients whose predicted dose of warfarin within 20% of the actual stable therapeutic dose (mean percentage within 20%) for Stack 1 was improved by 12.7% (from 42.47% to 47.86%) in Asians and by 13.5% (from 22.08% to 25.05%) in the low-dose group compared to that for MLR, respectively. These data suggest that our algorithms would especially benefit patients requiring low warfarin maintenance dose, as subtle changes in warfarin dose could lead to adverse clinical events (thrombosis or bleeding) in patients with low dose. Our study offers novel pharmacogenetic algorithms for clinical trials and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the need for accurate and timely influenza forecasting for deploying effective public health measures. Topics discussed include data preprocessing and modeling considerations of forecasting algorithms; surveillance methods used by different agencies and the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network; and no uniformity between surveillance data collection practices.

A Recommender System (RS) is an intelligent system that assists users in finding the items of their interest (e.g. books, movies, music) by preventing them to go through huge piles of data available online. In an effort to overcome the data sparsity issue in recommender systems, this research incorporates a content based filtering technique with fuzzy inference system and a conformal prediction approach introducing a new framework called Hybrid Content based Fuzzy Conformal Recommender System (HCF-CRS). The proposed framework is implemented to be used in the domain of movies and it provides quality recommendations to users with a confidence level and an improved accuracy. In our proposed framework, first, a Content Based Filtering (CBF) technique is applied to create a user profile by considering the history of each user. CBF is useful in the situations like: lack of demographic information and the data sparsity problems. Second, a Fuzzy based technique is incorporated to find the similarities and differences between the user profile and the movies in the dataset using a set of fuzzy rules to get a predicted rating for each movie. Third, a Conformal prediction algorithm is implemented to calculate the non-conformity measure between the predicted ratings produced by fuzzy system and the actual ratings from the dataset. A p-value (confidence measure) is computed to give a level of confidence to each recommended item and a bound is set on the confidence level called a significance level ε, according to which the movies only above the specified significance level are recommended to user. By building a confidence centric hybrid conformal recommender system using the content based filtering approach with fuzzy logic and conformal prediction algorithm, the reliability and the accuracy of the system is considerably enhanced. The experiments are evaluated on MovieLens and Movie Tweetings datasets for recommending movies to the users and they are compared with other state-of-the-art recommender systems. Finally, the results confirm that the proposed algorithms perform better than the traditional ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Can structural information of proteins generate essential features for predicting the deleterious effect of a single nucleotide variant (SNV) independent of the known existence of the SNV in diseases? In this work, we answer the question by examining the performance of features generated from prior knowledge with the goal towards determining the pathogenic effect of rare variants in rare disease. We take the approach of prioritizing SNV loci focusing on protein structure-based features. The proposed structure-based features are generated from geometric, physical, chemical, and functional properties of the variant loci and structural neighbors of the loci utilizing multiple homologous structures. The performance of the structure-based features alone, trained on 80% of HumVar-HumDiv combination (HumVD-train) and tested on 20% of HumVar-HumDiv (HumVD-test), ClinVar and ClinVar rare variant rare disease (ClinVarRVRD) datasets, showed high levels of discernibility in determining the SNV’s pathogenic or benign effects on patients. Combined structure- and sequence-based features generated from prior knowledge on a random forest model further improved the F scores to 0.84 (HumVD-test), 0.75 (ClinVar), and 0.75 (ClinVarRVRD). Including features based on the difference between wild-type in addition to the features based on loci information increased the F score slightly more to 0.90 (HumVD-test), 0.78 (ClinVar), and 0.76 (ClinVarRVRD). The empirical examination and high F scores of the results based on loci information alone suggest that location of SNV plays a primary role in determining functional impact of mutation and that structure-based features can help enhance the prediction performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the vast number of natural products with potential antiplasmodial bioactivity and cost of conducting antiplasmodial bioactivity assays, it may be judicious to learn from previous antiplasmodial bioassays and predict bioactivity of these natural products before experimental bioassays. This study set out to harness antimalarial bioactivity data of natural products to build accurate predictive models, utilizing classical machine learning approaches, which can find potential antimalarial hits from new sets of natural products. Classical machine learning approaches were used to build four classifier models (Naïve Bayesian, Voted Perceptron, Random Forest and Sequence Minimization Optimization of Support Vector Machines) from bioactivity data of natural products with in-vitro antiplasmodial activity (NAA) using a combination of the molecular descriptors and two-dimensional molecular fingerprints of the compounds. Models were evaluated with an independent test dataset. Possible chemical features associated with reported antimalarial activities of the compounds were also extracted. From the results, Random Forest (accuracy 82.81%, Kappa statistics 0.65 and Area under Receiver Operating Characteristics curve 0.91) and Sequential Minimization Optimization (accuracy 85.93%, Kappa statistics 0.72 and Area under Receiver Operating Characteristics curve 0.86) showed good predictive performance for the NAA dataset. The amine chemical group (specifically alkyl amines and basic nitrogen) was confirmed to be essential for antimalarial activity in active NAA dataset. This study built and evaluated classifier models that were used to predict the antiplasmodial bioactivity class (active or inactive) of a set of natural products from interBioScreen chemical library. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: The measurement of disease biomarkers in easily–obtained bodily fluids has opened the door to a new type of non–invasive medical diagnostics. New technologies are being developed and fine–tuned in order to make this possibility a reality. One such technology is Field Asymmetric Ion Mobility Spectrometry (FAIMS), which allows the measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in biological samples such as urine. These VOCs are known to contain a range of information on the relevant person’s metabolism and can in principle be used for disease diagnostic purposes. Key to the effective use of such data are well–developed data processing pipelines, which are necessary to extract the most useful data from the complex underlying biological structure. Results: In this study, we present a new data analysis pipeline for FAIMS data, and demonstrate a number of improvements over previously used methods. We evaluate the effect of a series of candidate operational steps during data processing, such as the use of wavelet transforms, principal component analysis (PCA), and classifier ensembles. We also demonstrate the use of FAIMS data in our pipeline to diagnose diabetes on the basis of a simple urine sample using machine learning classifiers. We present results for data generated from a case-control study of 115 urine samples, collected from 72 type II diabetic patients, with 43 healthy volunteers as negative controls. The resulting pipeline combines the steps that resulted in the best classification model performance. These include the use of a two–dimensional discrete wavelet transform, and the Wilcoxon rank–sum test for feature selection. We are able to achieve a best ROC curve AUC of 0.825 (0.747–0.9, 95% CI) for classification of diabetes vs control. We also note that this result is robust to changes in the data pipeline and different analysis runs, with AUC > 0.80 achieved in a range of cases. This is a substantial improvement in performance over previously used data processing methods in this area. Our ability to make strong statements about FAIMS ability to diagnose diabetes is sadly limited, as we found confounding effects from the demographics when including these data in the pipeline. The demographics alone produced a best AUC of 0.87 (0.795–0.94, 95% CI). While the combination of the demographics and FAIMS data resulted in an improvement on the AUC (0.907; 0.848–0.97, 95% CI), it did not prove to be a significant difference. Nevertheless, the pipeline itself shows a significant improvement in performance over more basic methods which have been used with FAIMS data in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]