Search

Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-11T16:46:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2017-02-01 Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index-both generated by our model-are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. Department of Economics Sao Paulo State University (UNESP) Sao Paulo Metropolitan Company Federal Institute of Education Science and Technology Metropolitan College Boston University Center for Polymer Studies and Department of Physics Boston University Department of Economics Sao Paulo State University (UNESP) FAPESP: 2014/19534-8

This report sets forth details of a financial recovery plan designed to help Vietnam Electricity (EVN), and the Vietnamese power sector more generally, to address a series of complex and interconnected challenges over the next 3 to 10 years. These challenges are operational and institutional as well as financial, and will lead to fundamental changes over time in the way that EVN and the overall power sector operate.

Latin America’s historically low saving rates and sub-par growth performance raise the question of whether the region should save more to grow faster. Economists generally resist acknowledging a policy-exploitable causal connection going from saving to growth because domestic saving is perceived to be fully endogenous, optimally determined, or fully substitutable by foreign saving. However, to the extent that these three assumptions do not hold, three channels can be established through which higher domestic saving—by curbing persistent current account deficits—can promote medium-term growth. The channels are first, a real interest rate channel, whereby higher saving reduces the cost of capital and enhances macro sustainability; second, a real exchange rate channel, through which higher saving leads to a more competitive real exchange rate; and third, an endogenous saving channel, whereby saving follows growth and, hence, subsequently compounds the effect of the first two channels. Econometric evidence supports all three channels and suggests that the lower-saving countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, especially those with recurrently weak balance of payments and persistent domestic demand pressures on the non-tradable sector, would benefit the most from boosting their saving rates.

The Sustainable Development Goals, the global development agenda for 2015 through 2030, will require unprecedented mobilization of resources to support their implementation. Their predecessor, the Millennium Development Goals, focused on a limited number of concrete, global human development targets that can be monitored by statistically robust indicators. The Millennium Development Goals set the stage for global support of ambitious development goals behind which the world must rally. The Sustainable Development Goals bring forward the unfinished business of the Millennium Development Goals and go even further. Because of the transformative and sustainable nature of the new development agenda, all possible resources must be mobilized if the world is to succeed in meeting its targets. Thus, the potential for Islamic finance to play a role in supporting the Sustainable Development Goals is explored in this paper. Given the principles of Islamic finance that support socially inclusive and development promoting activities, the Islamic financial sector has the potential to contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The paper examines the role of Islamic financial institutions, capital markets, and the social sector in promoting strong growth, enhanced financial inclusion, and intermediation, reducing risks and vulnerability of the poor and more broadly contributing to financial stability and development.

The proportion of youth that is not in work or in school or ninis1 in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) remains high. The latest estimates show that about 19 per cent of 15-24 years olds in the region, were in this status in 2010 (de Hoyos, Rogers and Popova (2013). This status entails a series of negative implications for the life-cycle development of the youth involved with a break in the human capital accumulation process that translates into a reduction in future productivity and labor market outcomes. A large share of ninis might also entail risks for society at large through potential short-term effects such as crime rates, and through the long-term sequels from not fully capitalizing on the ‘demographic window of opportunity’ of historically low economic dependency ratios, among others. The objective of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework for laying out the main elements involved in the dynamics of choices and restrictions faced by youth in the 15-24 age range. The paper also discusses different approaches that could be used to test the empirical validity of the theoretical implications presented here. The paper includes four sections. Section two starts with a simple characterization of the life-cycle transition of time uses for youth in LAC. Section three introduces a more formal presentation of what underlies these processes and what impact they may have. Section four addresses the considerations for empirical analyses and policy discussion. The last section includes some final remarks.

This article presents the concept of investor-expected rates of return on capital of listed companies and the use of these rates in the assessment of the extent to which the stock evaluation of a given entity is compatible with its intrinsic value. The article also features results of the research aimed at verification – with the use of the presented tool – of whether the market value of WSE-listed companies reflects their fundamental value. The calculations presented in the empirical part of the article show that at the beginning of 2011, market evaluation of the most of the analysed entities greatly exceeded their fundamental value.

Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) in developing countries are typically considered to be severely credit constrained. Additionally, high business risks may partly explain why capital stocks of MSEs remain low. This article analyzes the determinants of capital stocks of MSEs in poor economies focusing on credit constraints and risk. The analysis is based on a unique, albeit cross sectional but backward looking, micro data set on MSEs covering the economic capitals of seven West-African countries. The main result is that capital market imperfections indeed seem to explain an important part of the variation in capital stocks in the early lifetime of MSEs. Furthermore, the analyses show that risk plays a key role for capital accumulation. Risk-averse individuals seem to adjust their initially low capital stocks upwards when enterprises grow older. MSEs in risky activities owned by wealthy individuals even seem to over-invest when they start their business and adjust capital stocks downwards subsequently. As other firms simultaneously suffer from capital shortages, such behavior may imply large inefficiencies.

What do we know about the links between economic development and corporate governance in emerging markets? Stijn Claessens and Burcin Yurtoglu have sifted through scores of academic studies on various countries, sectors, and business organizations - from state-owned enterprises to publicly listed companies - to determine how corporate governance can influence economic development and well being, and what is needed to promote good practices. The Focus 10 draws on new evidence that has become available since Focus 1: Corporate Governance and Development was published in 2003. While the paper reviews research literature, it is written to be accessible to the nonacademic audience: board members, investors, government regulators, development professionals, and other CG practitioners. Research findings sited in the Focus include: 1) improved corporate governance practices increase firm share prices; 2) operational performance is higher in better corporate governance countries; 3) well governed companies have less volatile stock prices in times of crisis; 4) companies with boards composed of a higher fraction of outsider or independent directors usually have a higher market valuation; 5) improvements in corporate governance quality lead to higher GDP growth, productivity growth, and the increased ratio of investment to GDP; 6) when a country's overall corporate governance and property rights systems are weak, voluntary and market corporate governance mechanisms have limited effectiveness; 7) large, more concentrated ownership can be beneficial, unless there is a disparity of control and cash flow rights; 8) the quality of shareholder protection positively correlates with the development of countries' capital markets; and 9) better corporate governance leads to a better developed financial system. The paper concludes by identifying several main policy and research issues that require further study. For example, more research is needed on family-owned, state-owned or controlled firms that predominate in many sectors and economies. For more publications on IFC Sustainability please visit www.ifc.org/sustainabilitypublications.

This semiannual report, a product of the Office of the Chief Economist for the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region of the World Bank, examines the nature of the very good overall performance of the LAC region in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis and presents a comparative analysis of the post-crisis recovery patterns in the region vis-a-vis other regions. The first part of this report provides an overview of recent economic developments, an in depth look at the drivers of the post-crisis performance in the region, analyzes the external and domestic risks that could drag down growth performance in LAC, and discusses policy response options. The second part of the report documents the adverse impact of the crisis on the Caribbean region as well as its slow recovery. It distinguishes the poorer performance of English speaking Caribbean nations vis-a-vis non-English speaking ones, and highlights the dependence of the region on countries in the epicenter of the crisis, especially the United States, and the limited fiscal space that disabled a counter-cyclical policy response. The report concludes by emphasizing that skillful cycle management is necessary although far from sufficient to be able to turn what has to date been a cyclical recovery into a higher rate of trend growth. Moreover, countries experiencing a formidable windfall from the high commodity prices are in a unique position to seize the opportunity by judiciously saving and investing out of the windfall, they could relax the structural speed limits that have so far kept economic activity from rising to a higher long-run growth path.

This study provides an overview of Arab official development assistance (ODA) over the past four decades. Trends in volume, composition, and direction are discussed in chapter two and the institutional framework is discussed in chapter three. Over 90 percent of Arab development assistance is provided by three countries: the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The purpose of this handbook is to provide policy makers with a framework to assess a tax system in its entirety, measure its various parameters and how it is administered, and defines best practices for tax policy and administration that will yield a tax system that is simple and predictable and does not create an undue burden on private enterprise. This handbook is primarily designed for policy makers and tax practitioners. The goal is to analyze the impact of income tax, the value added tax (VAT), and other local taxes that are imposed on business. This handbook does not analyze the effects of trade and labor taxes such as social security. The administration of the customs duty is unique and has been addressed extensively in the literature on customs modernization. Labor taxes primarily imposed on salaried individuals are not covered by this handbook, even though their incidence affects business. VAT has been included even though it is a tax on consumption because the administrative burden to comply with it is primarily on business.

Chile could well have space to increase its growth potential by 2 percentage points of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per year. To do this, it would need to pay more attention to new sources of growth in natural resources, manufacturing, and services. In an increasingly globalized world, first-mover advantages have become more numerous and larger. Chile risks losing out, as a few recent high-profile cases suggest. Chile's total factor productivity growth can be raised by driving within-firm technological change closer to the global best-practice frontier more rapidly, especially in manufacturing. This would encourage the diversification of exports and boost Chile's supply response to global demand changes. Chile confronts obstacles in its processes of innovation, human capital accumulation, and investment. To overcome them, deep institutional changes are needed to develop a national innovation system, stronger and more equitable educational achievement, more flexible labor markets, and focused public investments that crowd in private business. Such an inclusive growth strategy is likely to yield better social outcomes than a strategy that attempts to confront social inequities head-on through more equitable access to public services without paying adequate attention to the demand for labor and generation of income. Chile could also try a new policy towards innovation, but it would need to be bolder in terms of the institutional design to maximize the chances of success.

Beginning in the late 1980s many developing countries turned to the private sector to provide basic infrastructure and utility services, such as highways, railroads, water, wastewater, electricity, gas, and telecommunications. Recent studies suggest that private involvement often benefited customers and reduced government fiscal problems without harming employees or enriching private providers excessively. There were enough high-profile failures, however, to discredit this reform in many quarters. Private involvement is likely to be more successful if it generates real efficiency gains rather than simply transferring costs among parties, if the systems of regulating the private companies are politically sensitive as well as technically competent, if the costs and constraints of private capital are not excessive, and if we are willing to adopt more modest and gradual schemes in difficult circumstances.

What are the underlying rationales for industrial policy? Does empirical evidence support the use of industrial policy for correcting market failures that plague the process of industrialization? This article addresses these questions through a critical survey of the analytical literature on industrial policy. It also reviews some recent industry successes and argues that public interventions have played only a limited role. Moreover, the recent ascendance and dominance of international production networks in the sectors in which developing countries once had considerable success implies a further limitation on the potential role of industrial policies as traditionally understood. Overall, there appears to be little empirical support for an activist government policy even though market failures exist that can, in principle, justify the use of industrial policy.

More than regulations, laws on the books, or voluntary codes, enforcement is a key to creating an effective business environment and good corporate governance, at least in developing countries and transition economies. A framework is presented to help explain enforcement, the impact on corporate governance when rules are not enforced, and what can be done to improve corporate governance in weak enforcement environments. The limited empirical evidence suggests that private enforcement tools are often more effective than public tools. However, some public enforcement is necessary, and private enforcement mechanisms often require public laws to function. Private initiatives are often also taken under the threat of legislation or regulation, although in some countries bottom-up, private-led initiatives preceded and even shaped public laws. Concentrated ownership aligns incentives and encourages monitoring, but it weakens other corporate governance mechanisms and can impose significant costs. Various steps can be taken to reduce these costs and reinforce other corporate governance mechanisms. But political economy constraints, resulting from the intermingling of business and politics, often prevent improvements in the enforcement environment and the adoption and implementation of public laws.

Although the link between improved infrastructure services and economic growth is uncertain, it is clear that reforms aimed at creating competition and regulating natural monopolies establish an environment conducive to private sector participation, incentives for companies to strive for efficiency savings that can ultimately be passed on to consumers, and greater provision of services (such as faster roll-out of infrastructure or innovative solutions to service delivery for customers not connected to an existing network). In determining the form that infrastructure restructuring might undertake or the design of a regulatory agency, policymakers can generally benefit from a review of the experiences of other countries. A key element of any decision making process should be a review of how the various types of reform will affect the efficiency of the sector and whether they will increase private financing of its significant investment needs.