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Background: Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth. Methodology: The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R0, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e.g., daily incidence counts). Principal Findings: Compared to simulated data, IDEA provides highly accurate estimates of total size and duration for a given outbreak when R0 is low or moderate, and also identifies turning points or new waves. When tested with an outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the model generates estimated incidence at the i+1th serial interval using data from the ith serial interval within an average of 20% of actual incidence. Conclusions and Significance: This model for communicable disease outbreaks provides rapid assessments of outbreak growth and public health interventions. Further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks will establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Johnes disease (JD), caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (MAP), occurs worldwide as chronic granulomatous enteritis of domestic and wild ruminants. To develop a cost effective vaccine, in a previous study we constructed an attenuated Salmonella strain that expressed a fusion product made up of partial fragments of MAP antigens (Ag85A, Ag85B and SOD) that imparted protection against challenge in a mouse model. In the current study we evaluated the differential immune response and protective efficacy of the Sal-Ag vaccine against challenge in a goat model as compared to the live attenuated vaccine MAP316F. PBMCs from goats vaccinated with Sal-Ag and challenged with MAP generated significantly lower levels of IFN-γ, following in vitro stimulation with either Antigen-mix or PPD jhonin, than PBMC from MAP316F vaccinated animals. Flow cytometric analysis showed the increase in IFN-γ correlated with a significantly higher level of proliferation of CD4, CD8 and γδT cells and an increased expression of CD25 and CD45R0 in MAP316F vaccinated animals as compared to control animals. Evaluation of a range of cytokines involved in Th1, Th2, Treg, and Th17 immune responses by quantitative PCR showed low levels of expression of Th1 (IFN-γ, IL-2, IL-12) and proinflammatory cytokines (IL-6, IL-8, IL-18, TNF-α) in the Sal-Ag immunized group. Significant levels of Th2 and anti-inflammatory cytokines transcripts (IL-4, IL-10, IL-13, TGF-β) were expressed but their level was low and with a pattern similar to the control group. Over all, Sal-Ag vaccine imparted partial protection that limited colonization in tissues of some animals upon challenge with wild type MAP but not to the level achieved with MAP316F. In conclusion, the data indicates that Sal-Ag vaccine induced only a low level of protective immunity that failed to limit the colonization of MAP in infected animals. Hence the Sal-Ag vaccine needs further refinement to increase its efficacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is associated with roughly 10% of gastric carcinomas worldwide (EBVaGC). Although previous investigations provide a strong link between EBV and gastric carcinomas, these studies were performed using selected EBV gene probes. Using a cohort of gastric carcinoma RNA-seq data sets from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), we performed a quantitative and global assessment of EBV gene expression in gastric carcinomas and assessed EBV associated cellular pathway alterations. EBV transcripts were detected in 17% of samples but these samples varied significantly in EBV coverage depth. In four samples with the highest EBV coverage (hiEBVaGC – high EBV associated gastric carcinoma), transcripts from the BamHI A region comprised the majority of EBV reads. Expression of LMP2, and to a lesser extent, LMP1 were also observed as was evidence of abortive lytic replication. Analysis of cellular gene expression indicated significant immune cell infiltration and a predominant IFNG response in samples expressing high levels of EBV transcripts relative to samples expressing low or no EBV transcripts. Despite the apparent immune cell infiltration, high levels of the cytotoxic T-cell (CTL) and natural killer (NK) cell inhibitor, IDO1, was observed in the hiEBVaGCs samples suggesting an active tolerance inducing pathway in this subgroup. These results were confirmed in a separate cohort of 21 Vietnamese gastric carcinoma samples using qRT-PCR and on tissue samples using in situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry. Lastly, a panel of tumor suppressors and candidate oncogenes were expressed at lower levels in hiEBVaGC versus EBV-low and EBV-negative gastric cancers suggesting the direct regulation of tumor pathways by EBV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fusion inhibitors are a class of antiretroviral drugs used to prevent entry of HIV into host cells. Many of the fusion inhibitors being developed, including the drug enfuvirtide, are peptides designed to competitively inhibit the viral fusion protein gp41. With the emergence of drug resistance, there is an increased need for effective and unique alternatives within this class of antivirals. One such alternative is a class of cyclic, cationic, antimicrobial peptides known as θ-defensins, which are produced by many non-human primates and exhibit broad-spectrum antiviral and antibacterial activity. Currently, the θ-defensin analog RC-101 is being developed as a microbicide due to its specific antiviral activity, lack of toxicity to cells and tissues, and safety in animals. Understanding potential RC-101 resistance, and how resistance to other fusion inhibitors affects RC-101 susceptibility, is critical for future development. In previous studies, we identified a mutant, R5-tropic virus that had evolved partial resistance to RC-101 during in vitro selection. Here, we report that a secondary mutation in gp41 was found to restore replicative fitness, membrane fusion, and the rate of viral entry, which were compromised by an initial mutation providing partial RC-101 resistance. Interestingly, we show that RC-101 is effective against two enfuvirtide-resistant mutants, demonstrating the clinical importance of RC-101 as a unique fusion inhibitor. These findings both expand our understanding of HIV drug-resistance to diverse peptide fusion inhibitors and emphasize the significance of compensatory gp41 mutations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]