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The 79° North Glacier (Nioghalvfjerdsbrae, 79NG) is one of three remaining glaciers with a floating tongue in Greenland. Although the glacier has been considered exceptionally stable in the past, earlier studies have shown that the ice tongue has thinned in recent decades. By conducting high-resolution ground-based and airborne radar measurements in conjunction with satellite remote-sensing observations, we find significant changes in the geometry of 79NG. In the vicinity of the grounding line, a 500 m high subglacial channel has grown since ∼ 2010 and has caused surface lowering of up to 7.6 m a -1. Our results show extreme basal melt rates exceeding 150 m a -1 over a period of 17 d within a distance of 5 km from the grounding line, where the ice has thinned by 32 % since 1998. We find a heterogeneous distribution of melt rates, likely due to variability in water column thickness and channelization of the ice base. Time series of melt rates show a decrease in basal melting since 2018, indicating an inflow of colder water into the cavity below 79NG. We discuss the processes that have led to the changes in geometry and conclude that the inflow of warm ocean currents has led to the extensive thinning of 79NG's floating ice tongue near the grounding line over the last 2 decades. In contrast, we hypothesize that the growth of the channel results from increased subglacial discharge due to a considerably enlarged area of summer surface melt due to the warming of the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adélie‐George V Land in East Antarctica, encompassing the vast Wilkes Subglacial Basin, has a configuration that could be prone to ice sheet instability: the basin's retrograde bed slope could make its marine terminating glaciers vulnerable to warm seawater intrusion and irreversible retreat under predicted climate forcing. However, future projections are uncertain, due in part to limited subglacial observations near the grounding zone. Here, we develop a novel statistical approach to characterize subglacial conditions from radar sounding observations. Our method reveals intermixed frozen and thawed bed within 100 km of the grounding‐zone near the Wilkes Subglacial Basin outflow, and enables comparisons to ice sheet model‐inferred thermal states. The signs of intermixed or near thawed conditions raises the possibility that changes in basal thermal state could impact the stability of Adélie‐George V Land, adding to the region's potentially vulnerable topographic configuration and sensitivity to ocean forcing driven grounding line retreat. Plain Language Summary: East Antarctica's Adélie‐George V Land has been relatively stable over the last few decades. However, this region contains the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, which has a downward‐sloping bed inland of the grounding zone. This could make irreversible retreat possible if warming seawater off the coast enters beneath the ice sheet. However, predicting the region's vulnerability is difficult, in part, because there is limited information about the conditions beneath the ice sheet. In this study, we develop a new statistical approach to synthesize radar sounding data and classify the conditions at the ice‐bed interface into frozen‐bed and thawed‐bed, which can then provide comparisons to ice sheet model output. We find that areas near the outflow of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, critical in maintaining the stability of the region, might consist of mixed frozen‐bed and thawed‐bed or near‐thawed conditions on the scale of tens of kilometers across. This finding is important since the extent of basal thaw affects how easily ice can flow or slide over the bed. If parts of the bed are close to thawed, this could make Adélie‐George V Land more sensitive to climate forcing, possibly resulting in mass loss. Key Points: We develop an adaptable statistical framework using radar sounding data to classify the basal thermal state of ice sheetsApplied to the Adélie‐George V Coast, the framework reveals a mix of frozen and thawed‐bed, along with confidence in the classificationsAreas maintaining the region's stability have varied thermal states and we consider how this could increase sensitivity to climate forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite radar interferometry data reveals that the grounding line of Petermann Glacier, Greenland migrates by several kilometers during the tidal cycle, bringing pressurized, subsurface, warm ocean waters in regular contact with a large sector of grounded ice. We use the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model in two dimensions to calculate the ice melt rates as a function of grounding zone (GZ) length and ocean Thermal Forcing (TF). Ice melt rates are found to be higher in the GZ cavity than anywhere else in the ice shelf cavity. The melt rates increase sub‐linearly with the length of the GZ and ocean TF. The model results agree well with remote sensing estimates of ice melt. High basal ice melt rates in tidally flushed grounding zones imply that marine‐terminating glaciers are more sensitive to ocean TF than anticipated, which will increase their projected contribution to sea level rise. Plain Language Summary: The traditional view of ice melting in contact with ocean waters is that melt rates drop to zero at the grounding line, which is a semi‐fixed boundary at the junction between grounded ice and the ocean. In reality, the grounding line migrates by kilometers during the tidal cycle, more than 10 times beyond the range expected from hydrostatic equilibrium, which brings warm, saline water in rapid contact with broad sectors of grounded ice. We use an ocean model to calculate the melt rates caused by seawater intrusions. We find that the melt rates in the GZ are higher than anywhere else in the ice shelf cavity and increase as the GZ becomes wider and the ocean gets warmer. Ice melt in kilometer‐size grounding zones will reduce the basal resistance to flow and will increase the sensitivity of the glacier flow to ocean warming, hence projections of sea level rise from the glacier will go up. Key Points: First modeling of ice melt rates from seawater intrusions in the kilometer‐size grounding zone (GZ) of Petermann Glacier using an ocean modelModeled melt rates are highest in the GZ and increase linearly with GZ width and ocean thermal forcingHigh melt rates in kilometer‐size grounding zones imply a higher sensitivity of glaciers to ocean warming than anticipated [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract. Grounding line discharge is a key component of the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we present an estimate of Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding line discharge from 1996 through to last month. We calculate ice flux at up to 100 m resolution through 16 algorithmically-generated flux gates, which are continuous around Antarctica. We draw on a range of ice velocity and thickness data to estimate grounding line discharge. For ice thickness, we use four bed topography datasets, two firn models and a temporally varying ice surface. For the ice velocity, we utilise a range of publicly-available ice velocity maps at resolutions ranging from 240 x 240 m to 1000 x 1000 m, as well as new, 100 x 100 m monthly velocity mosaics derived from intensity-tracking of Sentinel-1 image pairs, available since October 2014. The pixel-based ice fluxes and ice flux errors are integrated within all available Antarctic ice stream, ice shelf and glacier basins. Our dataset also includes the contributions to discharge from changes in ice thickness due to surface lowering, time-varying firn air content and surface mass change between the flux gates and grounding line. We find that Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding line discharge increased from 1,990 ± 23 Gt yr-1 to 2,205 ± 18 Gt yr-1 between 1996 and 2023, much of which was due to acceleration of ice streams in West Antarctica but with substantial contributions from ice streams in East Antarctica and glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. The uncertainties in our discharge dataset primarily result from uncertain bed elevation and flux gate location, which account for much of difference between our results and previous studies. It is our intention to update this discharge dataset each month, subject to continued Sentinel-1 acquisitions and funding availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seafloor depths under the Cook Ice Shelf and Ninnis Glacier Tongue have not been directly measured, despite their importance for understanding ocean circulation and ice shelf change. We model the bathymetry underneath the floating ice and surrounding ocean using airborne gravity data. Our model is constrained by few ship‐based seafloor measurements near the ice front and by ice‐base measurements over areas of grounded ice from radar data. Localized basins (∼1,400 m deep) are found beneath both ice shelves. The shallowest modeled bathymetry (∼200 m) represents the offshore extension of Cape Freshfield. Near the grounding line, seafloor depths are found to be deeper than the observed depth of the modified Circumpolar Deep water in the region (<350 m), key factor for basal melt analyses. From transit flight gravity anomalies, we suggest the relocation of the mapped edge of the continental shelf and a narrowing of the Cook Shelf Depression. Plain Language Summary: The knowledge of how deep the ocean floor is under the floating ice shelves that connect to grounded ice sheets, is crucial for understanding how ocean water circulates and interacts with the overlying ice. We present a new bathymetric model of the seafloor beneath two ice shelves located in East Antarctica: Cook Ice Shelf and Ninnis Glacier Tongue. Both ice shelves are inaccessible to ships due to heavy sea ice conditions, so the data used in our model were collected from airborne surveys. Our bathymetry model shows new information on the depth and shape of the seafloor that will help understanding the ocean circulation in the area and how this might impact ice thickness changes. Key Points: High resolution bathymetry model of Cook Ice Shelf, Ninnis Glacier Tongue, and surrounding open ocean from airborne gravity inversionNew bathymetry model improves the understanding of water pathways between the ice shelves and the continental shelf edgeTransit flight gravity anomalies suggest relocation of the edge of the continental shelf northwards of the currently attributed position [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) buttresses the eastern grounded portion of Thwaites Glacier through contact with a pinning point at its seaward limit. Loss of this ice shelf will promote further acceleration of Thwaites Glacier. Understanding the dynamic controls and structural integrity of the TEIS is therefore important to estimating Thwaites' future sea-level contribution. We present a ∼ 20-year record of change on the TEIS that reveals the dynamic controls governing the ice shelf's past behaviour and ongoing evolution. We derived ice velocities from MODIS and Sentinel-1 image data using feature tracking and speckle tracking, respectively, and we combined these records with ITS_LIVE and GOLIVE velocity products from Landsat-7 and Landsat-8. In addition, we estimated surface lowering and basal melt rates using the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA) DEM in comparison to ICESat and ICESat-2 altimetry. Early in the record, TEIS flow dynamics were strongly controlled by the neighbouring Thwaites Western Ice Tongue (TWIT). Flow patterns on the TEIS changed following the disintegration of the TWIT around 2008, with a new divergence in ice flow developing around the pinning point at its seaward limit. Simultaneously, the TEIS developed new rifting that extends from the shear zone upstream of the ice rise and increased strain concentration within this shear zone. As these horizontal changes occurred, sustained thinning driven by basal melt reduced ice thickness, particularly near the grounding line and in the shear zone area upstream of the pinning point. This evidence of weakening at a rapid pace suggests that the TEIS is likely to fully destabilize in the next few decades, leading to further acceleration of Thwaites Glacier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a research report on ocean-induced melt volume directly paces ice loss from Pine Island Glacier. Topics include Pine Island Glacier over the next two centuries given anticipated levels of ocean warming; and evaluate sensitivity to melt distribution, each simulation used a prescribed shelf-integrated melt total, with a randomly generated, depth-parameterized spatial distribution.

The northern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet is considered to be particularly susceptible to ice mass loss arising from increased glacier discharge in the coming decades. However, the past extent and dynamics of outlet glaciers in this region, and hence their vulnerability to climate change, are poorly documented. In the summer of 2019, the Swedish icebreaker Oden entered the previously unchartered waters of Sherard Osborn Fjord, where Ryder Glacier drains approximately 2 % of Greenland's ice sheet into the Lincoln Sea. Here we reconstruct the Holocene dynamics of Ryder Glacier and its ice tongue by combining radiocarbon dating with sedimentary facies analyses along a 45 km transect of marine sediment cores collected between the modern ice tongue margin and the mouth of the fjord. The results illustrate that Ryder Glacier retreated from a grounded position at the fjord mouth during the Early Holocene (> 10.7±0.4 ka cal BP) and receded more than 120 km to the end of Sherard Osborn Fjord by the Middle Holocene (6.3±0.3 ka cal BP), likely becoming completely land-based. A re-advance of Ryder Glacier occurred in the Late Holocene, becoming marine-based around 3.9±0.4 ka cal BP. An ice tongue, similar in extent to its current position was established in the Late Holocene (between 3.6±0.4 and 2.9±0.4 ka cal BP) and extended to its maximum historical position near the fjord mouth around 0.9±0.3 ka cal BP. Laminated, clast-poor sediments were deposited during the entire retreat and regrowth phases, suggesting the persistence of an ice tongue that only collapsed when the glacier retreated behind a prominent topographic high at the landward end of the fjord. Sherard Osborn Fjord narrows inland, is constrained by steep-sided cliffs, contains a number of bathymetric pinning points that also shield the modern ice tongue and grounding zone from warm Atlantic waters, and has a shallowing inland sub-ice topography. These features are conducive to glacier stability and can explain the persistence of Ryder's ice tongue while the glacier remained marine-based. However, the physiography of the fjord did not halt the dramatic retreat of Ryder Glacier under the relatively mild changes in climate forcing during the Holocene. Presently, Ryder Glacier is grounded more than 40 km seaward of its inferred position during the Middle Holocene, highlighting the potential for substantial retreat in response to ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chronologies of glacier deposits in the Transantarctic Mountains provide important constraints on grounding-line retreat during the last deglaciation in the Ross Sea. However, between Beardmore Glacier and Ross Island – a distance of some 600 km – the existing chronologies are generally sparse and far from the modern grounding line, leaving the past dynamics of this vast region largely unconstrained. We present exposure ages of glacial deposits at three locations alongside the Darwin–Hatherton Glacier System – including within 10 km of the modern grounding line – that record several hundred meters of Late Pleistocene to Early Holocene thickening relative to present. As the ice sheet grounding line in the Ross Sea retreated, Hatherton Glacier thinned steadily from about 9 until about 3 ka. Our data are equivocal about the maximum thickness and Mid-Holocene to Early Holocene history at the mouth of Darwin Glacier, allowing for two conflicting deglaciation scenarios: (1) ∼500 m of thinning from 9 to 3 ka, similar to Hatherton Glacier, or (2) ∼950 m of thinning, with a rapid pulse of ∼600 m thinning at around 5 ka. We test these two scenarios using a 1.5-dimensional flowband model, forced by ice thickness changes at the mouth of Darwin Glacier and evaluated by fit to the chronology of deposits at Hatherton Glacier. The constraints from Hatherton Glacier are consistent with the interpretation that the mouth of Darwin Glacier thinned steadily by ∼500 m from 9 to 3 ka. Rapid pulses of thinning at the mouth of Darwin Glacier are ruled out by the data at Hatherton Glacier. This contrasts with some of the available records from the mouths of other outlet glaciers in the Transantarctic Mountains, many of which thinned by hundreds of meters over roughly a 1000-year period in the Early Holocene. The deglaciation histories of Darwin and Hatherton glaciers are best matched by a steady decrease in catchment area through the Holocene, suggesting that Byrd and/or Mulock glaciers may have captured roughly half of the catchment area of Darwin and Hatherton glaciers during the last deglaciation. An ensemble of three-dimensional ice sheet model simulations suggest that Darwin and Hatherton glaciers are strongly buttressed by convergent flow with ice from neighboring Byrd and Mulock glaciers, and by lateral drag past Minna Bluff, which could have led to a pattern of retreat distinct from other glaciers throughout the Transantarctic Mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the period between 14.7 and 11.5 cal. (calibrated) kyr B.P, the sediment flux of Bindschadler Ice Stream (BIS; West Antarctica) averaged 1.7 × 108 m3 a-1. This implies that BIS velocity averaged 500 ± 120 m a-1. At a finer resolution, the data suggest two stages of ice stream flow. During the first 2400 ± 400 years of a grounding-zone stillstand, ice stream flow averaged 200 ± 90 m a-1. Following ice-shelf breakup at 12.3 ± 0.2 cal. kyr B.P., flow accelerated to 1350 ± 580 m a-1. The estimated ice volume discharge after breakup exceeds the balance velocity by a factor of two and implies ice mass imbalance of -40 Gt a-1 just before the grounding zone retreated >200 km. We interpret that the paleo-BIS maintained sustainable discharge throughout the grounding-zone stillstand first due to the buttressing effect of its fringing ice shelf and then later (i.e., after ice-shelf breakup) due to the stabilizing effects of grounding-zone wedge aggradation. Major paleo-ice stream retreat, shortly after the ice-shelf breakup that triggered the inferred ice flow acceleration, substantiates the current concerns about rapid, near-future retreat of major glaciers in the Amundsen Sea sector where Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers are already experiencing ice-shelf instability and groundingzone retreat that have triggered upstream-propagating thinning and ice acceleration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice sheets lose the majority of their mass through outlet glaciers or ice streams, corridors of fast ice moving multiple orders of magnitude more rapidly than the surrounding ice. The future stability of these corridors of fast-moving ice depends sensitively on the behaviour of their boundaries, namely shear margins, grounding zones and the basal sliding interface, where the stress field is complex and fundamentally three-dimensional. These boundaries are prone to thermomechanical localisation, which can be captured numerically only with high temporal and spatial resolution. Thus, better understanding the coupled physical processes that govern the response of these boundaries to climate change necessitates a non-linear, full Stokes model that affords high resolution and scales well in three dimensions. This paper's goal is to contribute to the growing toolbox for modelling thermomechanical deformation in ice by leveraging graphical processing unit (GPU) accelerators' parallel scalability. We propose FastICE, a numerical model that relies on pseudo-transient iterations to solve the implicit thermomechanical coupling between ice motion and temperature involving shear heating and a temperature-dependent ice viscosity. FastICE is based on the finite-difference discretisation, and we implement the pseudo-time integration in a matrix-free way. We benchmark the mechanical Stokes solver against the finite-element code Elmer/Ice and report good agreement among the results. We showcase a parallel version of FastICE to run on GPU-accelerated distributed memory machines, reaching a parallel efficiency of 99 %. We show that our model is particularly useful for improving our process-based understanding of flow localisation in the complex transition zones bounding rapidly moving ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smith, Pope, and Kohler glaciers and the corresponding Crosson and Dotson ice shelves have undergone speedup, thinning, and rapid grounding-line retreat in recent years, leaving them in a state likely conducive to future retreat. We conducted a suite of numerical model simulations of these glaciers and compared the results to observations to determine the processes controlling their recent evolution. The model simulations indicate that the state of these glaciers in the 1990s was not inherently unstable, i.e., that small perturbations to the grounding line would not necessarily have caused the large retreat that has been observed. Instead, sustained, elevated melt at the grounding line was needed to cause the observed retreat. Weakening of the margins of Crosson Ice Shelf may have hastened the onset of grounding-line retreat but is unlikely to have initiated these rapid changes without an accompanying increase in melt. In the simulations that most closely match the observed thinning, speedup, and retreat, modeled grounding-line retreat and ice loss continue unabated throughout the 21st century, and subsequent retreat along Smith Glacier's trough appears likely. Given the rapid progression of grounding-line retreat in the model simulations, thinning associated with the retreat of Smith Glacier may reach the ice divide and undermine a portion of the Thwaites catchment as quickly as changes initiated at the Thwaites terminus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relatively little is known about the physical mechanisms that drive the dynamics of the East Antarctic outlet glaciers. Here we conduct a remote-sensing investigation of the Polar Record Glacier (PRG), East Antarctica to analyze its ice flow acceleration, ice front variations and ice surface melting. Ice flow speeds at PRG increased by up to 15% from 2005 to 2015, with substantial interannual fluctuations. The ice velocities also showed seasonal variations, accelerating by up to 9% between September and January. Multiple mechanisms contribute to the observed seasonal variations: the initial acceleration may result from the lost back-stress provided by the sea ice in the austral spring and the later speedup relate to the surface meltwater that leads to weakened ice shelf and shear margins. The sensitivity of the PRG to oceanic forcing is confirmed by comparing the secular ice velocity increases with ocean temperatures. These measurements suggest that the dynamics of East Antarctic ice shelves are sensitive to melt at both the surface and base, at a range of timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Due to rapid global warming, the relationship between the mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet and rising sea levels are attracting widespread attention. The Lambert–Amery glacial system is the largest drainage system in East Antarctica, and its mass balance has an important influence on the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. In this paper, the recent ice flux in the Lambert Glacier of the Lambert–Amery system was systematically analyzed based on recently updated remote sensing data. According to Landsat-8 ice velocity data from 2018 to April 2019 and the updated Bedmachine v2 ice thickness dataset in 2021, the contribution of ice flux approximately 140 km downstream from Dome A in the Lambert Glacier area to downstream from the glacier is 8.5 ± 1.9   Gt · a − 1 , and the ice flux in the middle of the convergence region is 18.9 ± 2.9   Gt · a − 1 . The ice mass input into the Amery ice shelf through the grounding line of the whole glacier is 19.9 ± 1.3   Gt · a − 1 . The ice flux output from the mainstream area of the grounding line is 19.3 ± 1.0   Gt · a − 1 . Using the annual SMB data of the regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO v2.3) as the quality input, the mass balance of the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Lambert Glacier was analyzed. The results show that recent positive accumulation appears in the middle region of the glacier (about 74–78°S, 67–85°E) and the net accumulation of the whole glacier is 2.4 ± 3.5   Gt · a − 1 . Although the mass balance of the Lambert Glacier continues to show a positive accumulation, and the positive value in the region is decreasing compared with values obtained in early 2000. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ku-band dual-polarization radar backscatter measurements from the SeaWinds-on-QuikSCAT scatterometer are used to determine periods of surface freeze and melt in the Antarctic ice shelves. The normalized horizontal-polarization radar backscatter (σ°) and backscatter polarization ratio are used in maximum-likelihood estimation of the ice state. This method is used to infer the daily ice-surface conditions for 25 study locations located on the Ronne, Ross, Larsen, Amery, Shackleton, and other ice shelves. The temporal and spatial variations of the radar response are observed for various neighborhood sizes surrounding each given location during the study period. Criteria for determining the dates of melt onset and freeze-up for each Austral summer are presented. Validation of the ice-state and melt-onset date estimates is performed by analyzing the corresponding brightness temperature (Tb) measurements from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiometers. QuikSCAT σ° measurements from 1999 to 2003 are analyzed and found to be effective in determining periods of melt in Antarctic ice sheets at high temporal and spatial resolutions. These estimates can be used in studies of the climatic effects of the seasonal and interannual melting of the Antarctic ice sheets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the large-scale disintegration of the Larsen B Ice Shelf (LBIS) in 2002, ice flow velocities for its remnants and tributary glaciers began to increase. In this study, we used sequential Landsat images spanning 2005–2018 to produce detailed maps of the ice flow velocities and surface features for the Scar Inlet Ice Shelf (SIIS). Our results indicate that the ice flow velocities for the SIIS and its tributary glaciers (Flask and Leppard Glaciers) have substantially increased since 2005. Surface features, such as rifts and crevasses, have also substantially increased in both scope and scale and are particularly evident in the region between the Leppard Glacier and the Jason Peninsula. Several indicators—including the acceleration of ice flows, the rapid growth of major surface rifts, the heavily enhanced surface crevasses, and the dynamic position of the ice front—point to the evolving instability of the SIIS. These same indicators describe the conditions for the LBIS leading up to its 2002 collapse. To date, however, the SIIS remains intact. The formation of fast ice supporting the ice shelf front, combined with moderate mean summer temperatures, may be preventing or delaying its collapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thwaites Glacier is likely to make substantial contributions to global sea level in the coming decades. How conditions evolve at its ice-front will be important in determining the rate of these future sea level contributions. Here, we investigate changes at the ice-front of Thwaites Glacier in response to ocean-induced thinning over the past 20 years. We show that between 2006 and 2012 its ice tongue transitioned from a structurally intact floating tongue capable of producing large tabular icebergs to a mélange of fused icebergs and sea-ice. We link the structural weakening of the Thwaites Ice Tongue as it transitioned to mélange to increases in the velocity of Thwaites Glacier over the same time period. Through utilising the high-temporal resolution velocity monitoring capabilities (up to every 6 days) of the Landsat-8 and Sentinel-1 satellites between November 2013 and September 2018, we show that despite the weakening of the Thwaites Ice Tongue to mélange, it still provided some buttressing to the Thwaites Glacier through the interaction with its Eastern Ice Shelf. Importantly, the transition to mélange conditions increases the sensitivity of ice ice-front to future landfast sea-ice break-up events. This may have important implications for the stability of its remaining floating ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glaciers in the Amundsen Sea are rapidly thinning and retreating as a result of ocean-induced changes in ice-shelf buttressing. Here we use area-wide projections of ice shelf thickness and velocities to investigate changes in buttressing over the next 150 years under two limiting scenarios, i.e. sustained warm and cold ocean conditions. Our results are based on simulations using an asynchronous coupling between a high-resolution regional configuration of the 3D ocean model MITgcm, and the state-of-the-art SSA ice flow model Úa, with a coupling timestep of 6 months. Results provide the first Amundsen Sea-wide projections of glacier dynamics that fully account for the important feedbacks between ice-shelf geometry and ocean-induced melting. Limited changes in buttressing occur for existing ice shelves in a cold ocean scenario. However, a regionally diverse response is found for ice shelves subjected to warm ocean forcing, with increasing areas of ice providing reduced buttressing as the grounding line retreats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]