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This study used Theil–Sen median trend analysis and Mann–Kendall test, which are more suitable for long-term series research, to analyze high-precision NPP data and investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of NPP (net primary productivity) in northwest Liaoning from 2001 to 2021. We further analyzed the impact of the natural environment and land use types on NPP in the region using correlation and a one-way linear regression analysis. The results show that (1) the interannual NPP values exhibited a generally increasing yet fluctuating trend, with the gradient of NPP decrease moving from northwest to southeast. (2) NPP in northwest Liaoning was predominantly influenced by climatic variations, with significant impacts from the combined precipitation–temperature effects seen in 74% of the region, 65% influenced by precipitation alone, and 26% by non-climatic factors. (3) The interaction of soil and vegetation also impacted NPP, which displayed variable rising trends across different soil types in northwest Liaoning. (4) Alterations in land use led to a hierarchical arrangement of the multi-year average NPP values, listed from highest to lowest as forest land, grassland, cultivated land, built-up areas, unused land, and watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of carbon emissions from various land use types is one of the hot spots of researches. The carbon emission of Shanxi section of the Yellow River during 2000–2019 were analyzed based on the land use type data and fossil energy consumption data for the same period. Here, we explored the spatial and temporal characteristics of ecological stress using carbon emission, carbon footprint, carbon deficit, carbon ecological carrying capacity and carbon footprint pressure index models. The results indicated that the overall net carbon emissions had increased from 27959.67Gg CO2 equivalents in 2000–97355.36Gg CO2 equivalents in 2019 in the study area. During the study period, construction land was the main carbon sources, while forest land was the main carbon sinks. The carbon footprint of coal energy was the most dominant. The carbon footprint was greater than the ecological carrying capacity, which caused an ecological deficit during 2000–2019. The net carbon emissions and carbon footprint showed a continuous increasing trend, which became slower. The ecological pressure was spatially characterized as "less pressure in the northern and more pressure in the southern". The findings can provide scientific guidance for the land use sustainable development for coal cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bale Ecoregion (BER) is known for its global importance in biodiversity and as a water tower for East African drylands. Land use and land covers (LULC) have been changing for decades, affecting forest ecosystem service values (ESVs), but available information is limited. The present study addresses these gaps by using contrasting watersheds representing the highland, midland, and lowland agroecologies in the BER. LULC classifications were performed using GIS and remote sensing tools. Multisite imagery data (using Landsat image resolution 30 m × 30 m) were generated for four observation periods: 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022. A recently updated global ESV coefficient and the value transfer valuation method were applied to estimate the changes in ESVs related to LULC changes. The result demonstrates that between 1992 and 2022, forest land has decreased by 3%, 63%, and 22% in the highland, midland, and lowland areas, respectively. Different degrees of loss of ESVs were observed across the study periods and LULC. Of the 21 specific ESVs investigated, the highest annual losses were recorded for water ecosystem services both in the midland and lowland landscape positions. Increased ESVs for cultivated land could not offset losses in food ESVs at the scale of agroecology. Significant impacts of LULC changes on specific ecosystem services, such as water, and changes in natural connectivity between the highland and lowland areas were observed. The result suggests that stakeholders need to co-plan and manage the BER. This evidence provides a scientific underpinning for understanding the connection between LULC change and ESVs and supports informed policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas in South Asia face significant challenges due to human disturbance and deforestation. The ongoing debate surrounds the recent surge in illegal encroachment of forest buffer zones in the Musali divisional secretariat division (DSD), which has led to a significant loss of forest cover over the past three decades. In this context, detecting changes in forest cover, assessing forest health, and evaluating environmental quality are crucial for sustainable forest management. As such, our efforts focused on assessing forest cover dynamics, forest health, and environmental conditions in the DSD from 1988 to 2022. We employed standardized image processing techniques, utilizing Landsat-5 (TM) and Landsat-8 (OLI) images. However, the forest area in the DSD has shown minimal changes, and environmental conditions and forest health have illustrated considerable spatial-temporal variations over the 34 years. The results indicated that 8.5 km2 (1.9%) of forest cover in the DSD has been converted to other land use classes. Overall, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has declined over time, while Land Surface Temperature (LST) exhibits an increasing trend. The regression results demonstrated a robust inverse relationship between LST and NDVI. The declining vegetation conditions and the increasing LST contribute to an increase in environmental criticality. The derived maps and indices will be beneficial for forest authorities in identifying highly sensitive locations. Additionally, they could enable land use planners to develop sustainable land management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land surface temperature (LST) is one of the most important variables in the physical processes of surface energy and water balance. The temporal behavior of LST was analyzed between the latitudes 32°00′ S and 34°24′ S (Valparaíso and Metropolitana regions of Chile) for three summer months (December, January, and February) in the 2000–2017 period, using the Terra MODIS image information and applying the Mann–Kendall test. The results show an increase in LST in the study area, particularly in the Andes mountain range in January (5240 km2), which mainly comprises areas devoid of vegetation and eternal snow and glaciers, and are zones that act as water reserves for the capital city of Santiago. Similarly, vegetated areas such as forests, grasslands, and shrublands also show increasing trends in LST but over smaller surfaces. Because this study is regional, it is recommended to improve the spatial and temporal resolutions of the images to obtain conclusions on more local scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying urban land use and its impact on carbon emissions is crucial for achieving China's dual carbon goals. This research utilized the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios 126, 245, and 585 from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), along with a coupled System Dynamics (SD) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and a carbon emission coefficient method to simulate and predict Xi'an's land use carbon emissions from 2020 to 2040. The results indicate the following: (1) Cultivated and forest lands are the predominant land use types in Xi'an, with cultivated and grassland areas projected to decline under all three SSP scenarios by 2040. The most significant expansion of construction land, primarily at the expense of farmland, is projected under the SSP585 scenario, with an increase of 515.92 km2 by 2040. (2) Land use carbon emissions increased from 414.15 × 104 t in 2000 to 2376.10 × 104 t in 2020, with construction land being the primary source of emissions and forest land serving as the main carbon sink. However, the carbon sink capacity remained low at only 21.38 × 104 t in 2020. (3) Carbon emissions are expected to continue increasing under all scenarios through 2030 and 2040, though at a decreasing rate. The SSP126 scenario predicts the lowest emissions, reaching 9186.00 × 104 t by 2040, while SSP585 predicts the highest at 14,935.00 × 104 t. The findings of this study provide theoretical support for future low-carbon and high-quality urban development strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activities exert a profound influence on land use and land cover, and these changes directly influence habitat quality and ecosystem functioning. In the Gansu–Qinghai contiguous region of the upper Yellow River, habitat quality has undergone substantial transformations in recent years due to the synergistic impacts of natural processes and human intervention. Therefore, evaluating the effects of land use changes on habitat quality is crucial for advancing regional sustainable development and improving the worth of ecosystem services. In response to these challenges, we devised a two-pronged approach: a land use simulation (FLUS) model and an integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model, leveraging remote sensing data. This integrated methodology establishes a research framework for the evaluation and simulation of spatial and temporal variations in habitat quality. The results of the study show that, firstly, from 1980 to 2020, the habitat quality index in the Gansu–Qinghai contiguous region of the upper Yellow River decreased from 0.8528 to 0.8434. Secondly, our predictions anticipate a decrease in habitat quality, although the decline is not pronounced across all scenarios. The highest habitat quality values were projected under the EP (Ecology Priority) scenario, followed by the CLP (Cultivated Land Priority) scenario, while the BAU (Business as Usual) scenario consistently yielded the lowest values in all three scenarios. Finally, the ecological land, including forest land and grassland, consistently occupied areas characterized by high habitat quality. In contrast, Construction land consistently appeared in regions associated with low habitat quality. The implementation of conservation measures emerges as a crucial strategy, effectively limiting the expansion of construction land and promoting the augmentation of forest land and grassland cover. This approach serves to enhance overall habitat quality. These outcomes furnish a scientific foundation for the judicious formulation of future land-use policies and ecological protection measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces behind construction land amidst the intricate ecological and geological setting on the eastern edge of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau offers invaluable insights for local sustainable development in a landscape transition zone and ecologically fragile area. Using construction land data from four phases, spanning 1990 to 2020, in Mianning County, this study employs methodologies like the Landscape Expansion Index (LEI) and land use transfer matrix to delineate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of construction land. A comprehensive set of 12 influencing factors across five categories—geomorphology, geological activity, climate, river and vegetation environment, and social economy—were examined. The Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was then employed to decipher the spatial distribution pattern of construction land in 1990 and 2020, shedding light on the driving mechanisms behind its changes over the three decades. The research reveals distinct patterns of construction land distribution and evolution in Mianning County, shaped by the ecological and geological landscape. Notably, the Anning River wide valley exhibits a concentrated and contiguous development mode, while the Yalong River deep valley showcases a decentralized development pattern, and the Dadu River basin manifests an aggregation development mode centered around high mountain lakes. Over the study period, all three river basins witnessed varying degrees of construction land expansion, transitioning from quantitative expansion to qualitative enhancement. Edge expansion predominantly characterizes the expansion mode, complemented by leapfrog and infilling modes, accompanied by conversions from cropland and forest land to construction land. An analysis of the spatial pattern and drivers of construction land change highlights human-induced factors dominating the Anning River Basin, contrasting with natural factors prevailing in the Yalong River Basin and the Dadu River Basin. Future efforts should prioritize climate change considerations and environmental capacity, aiming for an ecologically resilient spatial pattern of construction land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scientific quantification of the ecological effects of carbon emissions, the reduction of ecological risk (ER), and the evaluation of the interaction effect between carbon emissions and ER are the pivotal measures for ensuring the longevity and continuity of sustainability. However, a dearth of comprehensive and macro-level evaluations exist pertaining to the ER and carbon emissions within the entirety of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). We have constructed four distinct simulated scenarios within the YREB, which include natural development (ND), cultivated land protection (CLP), ecological conservation (EC), and low carbon (LC) scenarios. Based on the consideration of future uncertainty, we predicted LUCEs and ERI under different scenarios, and analyzed the spatial interaction effects of LUCEs and ERI from the dual perspectives of the spatial spillover effect and spatial coupling effect. The results showed that under the four outlined scenarios, encompassing diverse parameters, conversion possibilities, and areas subject to restrictions, the land utilization patterns of the YREB in 2030 have unveiled pronounced disparities. The LUCEs in the YREB showed significant spatial heterogeneity under the four scenarios; the maximum value was 6.65 under the CLP scenario and the minimum value was 4.65 under the LC scenario. The ER has the highest value under the ND scenario and the lowest value under LC scenario. Construction land is the largest contributor to increased LUCEs, and forest land is the form of terrestrial utilization that reduces the impact of LUCEs. In different scenarios, LUCEs have a significant negative spillover effect on ER, while the bidirectional spatial coupling effect between LUCEs and ERI presents significant differences. Under the LC scenario, land with a strong carbon sequestration capacity increased significantly, the fragmentation of water bodies was alleviated, and the CCD was the highest. This study offers scientific counsel for the sustainable development of various regions within the YREB, thereby fostering the achievement of a harmonious coexistence between the ecological milieu and economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objectives: Land use and land cover change (LULCC) directly affects the human living environment and economic society by influencing ecosystem services. This study explores the complex relationship between LULCC and ecosystem services in the Dongting Lake region of China. Methods: The analysis incorporates the transfer matrix analysis of LULCC, ecosystem service value (ESV) accounting, Mann-Kendall mutation test, gray correlation, and path analysis. This study explored the spatial and temporal characteristics of LULCC and ecosystem services and revealed the comprehensive impacts of LULCC on ecosystem services from the perspective of factor interactions. Findings: The findings reveal that open water (OW) area and farmable land are the dominant land use types transferring in and out of the study area, with significant interconversion observed among open water area, wetland (WL), arable land (AL), and forest land (FL). Water conservation, waste disposal, climate regulation, and biodiversity conservation emerge as the most crucial ecosystem services in the study area. The study identifies consistent patterns of abrupt changes in LULCC and ESV across six analyzed time periods. Forest land exhibits the most substantial direct influence on climate regulation, gas exchange, soil formation and protection, conservation of biodiversity, rawmaterials, and recreation and leisure. Additionally, forest land, wetland, arable land, and openwater area contribute significantly to the total ESV, with forest land being the dominant factor influencing the spatial differentiation of ecosystem services in the Dongting Lake region. Conclusion: The research reveals the consistency of ecosystem services and LULCC trends in the Dongting Lake area. LULCC is a complex process influenced by multiple factors, in which the conversion between ecological and nonecological land use has a significant impact, and the complex coupling and coordination among LULCC drivers together influence ecosystem services. Furthermore, LULCC alters the structure and scale of ecosystems, resulting in alterations in the ESV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Land Use Change Alert (LUCA) dataset was developed for effective and timely monitoring of global forest changes that are mostly associated with human activities. Near- real-time changes of forest land use are mapped at 0.05 ha minimum mapping unit for all forest types across the Earth's ecoregions, every two weeks. LUCA is based on Sentinel-1 cloud penetrating synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations to circumvent limitations of optical imagery from pervasive cloud cover over forested areas globally, and especially in the tropics. The methodology is based on a combination of time-series change detection and machine learning analytics to achieve high accuracy of alerts across all ecoregions and landscapes globally with an average area-adjusted users and producers accuracy of 83% and 63%, respectively. The bi-weekly global alert maps capture forest clearing associated with deforestation and industrial timber harvesting, along with forest degradation associated with selective logging, fragmentation, fire, and roads. The product was developed and released publicly through Google Earth Engine to allow for the rapid assessment of land use change activities, quantifying patterns and processes driving forest change and dynamics across forest ecoregions. LUCA is designed to help monitor a variety of emission reduction programs at the local to regional scales and play a key role in implementing regulations on deforestation-free products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mangrove ecosystems exhibit significant carbon storage and sequestration. Its capacity to store and sequester significant amounts of carbon makes this ecosystem very important for climate change mitigation. Indonesia, owing to the largest mangrove cover in the world, has approximately 3.14 PgC stored in the mangroves, or about 33% of all carbon stored in coastal ecosystems globally. Unfortunately, our comprehensive understanding of carbon flux is hampered by the incomplete repertoire of field measurement data, especially from mangrove ecosystem-rich regions such as Indonesia and Asia Pacific. This study fills the gap in greenhouse gases (GHGs) flux studies in mangrove ecosystems in Indonesia by quantifying the soil CO2 and CH4 fluxes for different land use types in mangrove ecosystems, i.e., secondary mangrove (SM), restored mangrove (RM), pond embankment (PE) and active aquaculture pond (AP). Environmental parameters such as soil pore salinity, soil pore water pH, soil temperature, air temperature, air humidity and rainfall are also measured. Results: GHG fluxes characteristics varied between land use types and ecological conditions. Secondary mangrove and exposed pond embankment are potential GHG flux sources (68.9 ± 7.0 and 58.5 ± 6.2 MgCO2e ha− 1 yr− 1, respectively). Aquaculture pond exhibits the lowest GHG fluxes among other land use types due to constant inundation that serve as a barrier for the release of GHG fluxes to the atmosphere. We found weak relationships between soil CO2 and CH4 fluxes and environmental parameters. Conclusions: The data and information on GHG fluxes from different land use types in the mangrove ecosystem will be of importance to accurately assess the potential of the mangrove ecosystem to sequester and emit GHGs. This will support the GHG emission reduction target and strategy that had been set up by the Indonesian Government in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and Indonesia's 2030 Forest and Other Land Use (FOLU) Net Sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1990, global forest area has been reducing; tropical forests have suffered from different anthropogenic and natural factors that account for forest loss. Tropical deforestation is the second driver of anthropogenic emissions; increasing demand and investments in tropical forests drive these emissions. These forests attract significant foreign direct investments, but the effects of these investments on carbon emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry are not well enshrined in the literature for the countries under study. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of foreign direct investments on carbon emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry amongst 30 tropical forest countries from 1996 to 2019. The sampled countries were disaggregated by tropical blocs: Amazon, Congo basin, Australasia, and Southeast Asia, and by income levels; low-income, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income. The findings reveal a U-shape structure of the impact of FDI on carbon emissions from LULUCF within Congo basin and Amazon countries; at higher levels of FDI, emissions from LULUCF will increase while Australasia and Southeast Asian countries show an inverted U-shape impact, thus at higher levels of FDI, there will be a negative and significant impact on carbon emissions from LULUCF. The income levels reveal an inverted U-shape for low-income and high-income countries and a U-shape for upper-middle-income countries; the impact for lower-middle-income countries is not significant. Overall, for the whole sample, the impact depicts a U-shape. This paper proposes high-level development of environmental conditions for FDI for different sectors that align with country and regional green growth plans. Enhancing national and regional governance systems to enforce decisions and fight corruption effectively can significantly promote green FDI for green growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conversion of forestlands to alternative land uses is a growing worldwide concern, given the wide range of provisioning and regulating ecosystem services (ES) provided by forests. We applied a scenario-based land-use/land-cover (LULC) projection technique integrating societal preferences, conservation policies, and socio-economic factors to the Upper Flint River Watershed in the Atlanta, Georgia (USA) metropolitan area. We employed the InVEST modeling toolset to assess the impact of anticipated LULC changes on ES under each development scenario. Our simulations projected a consistent conversion from Deciduous/Mixed Forests to either Urban or Evergreen forests across all scenarios, leading to a significant decline in ES. We quantified the economic impacts of this ES loss, conservatively estimated as representing millions of dollars per year under a Business as Usual scenario in just carbon and water services alone. Integrating social and policy drivers into our projection approach yielded policy-relevant results and identified the need for conservation policy instruments to protect forested ecosystems with higher conservation values. Existing conservation policies are unlikely to stem the loss of important ES, and there may be a need to consider more aggressive policies to prevent further degradation of watersheds, such as the one analyzed here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional ecosystem service value (ESV) is significantly influenced by factors such as land use/cover change (LUCC). In this study, from the perspective of spatio-temporal heterogeneity, we constructed a dynamic and zonal equivalence table of ecosystem service values using the equivalence factor method and analyzed the spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service values of different agricultural plantation regions of the karst mountainous areas of southwestern China (Yunnan Province, YP) in the years from 1990 to 2020. Also, the ESV of YP in 2030 was simulated using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. The results showed the following: (1) land use/land cover (LULC) in YP from 1990 to 2020 was dominated by needle-leaved forestland, broadleaved forestland, grassland, and rainfed cropland. (2) The total ESV in YP fluctuated between CNY 876.74 and 1323.68 B from 1990 to 2020, expanding at a rate of 50.98%. The largest portion of the total ESV comes from climate regulation. The ESV increased from east to west, and the positive spatial correlation of the ESV gradually weakened. (3) The ESV in YP was projected to reach CNY 1320.70 B by 2030, representing a decrease of ~CNY 2.98 B since 2020. The results showed a decline in the ecological environment's quality in YP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid economic development and urban expansion, there has been a growing trend of ecological land being converted into non-ecological land. In order to mitigate this issue and improve the environment, the concept of national key ecological functional areas (NKEFA) has been implemented, and it is of great importance to assess the effectiveness of NKEFA in terms of land use and ecosystem services. Taking Chongqing City in China as a case study, this research utilizes remote sensing technology to analyze land use change and measure the ecosystem service value (ESV), and the NKEFA in Chongqing is regarded as a quasi-natural experiment to evaluate the protection effect on ecosystem services. Firstly, the results show that dynamic degree of that building land is the highest, with a value of 12.55% between 2010 and 2020, which is mainly due to the conversion of cultivated land into building land, and other land types transferred into building land are mainly concentrated in the southwest region of Chongqing; the dynamic degree of forest land and waters in NKEFAs is greater compared to Non-NKEFAs. Secondly, the ESV in NKEFAs is greater than that of Non-NKEFAs, and there is a significant concentration of low–low (L–L) agglomeration areas and high–high (H–H) gather areas of ESV. The former primarily lies within Chongqing's one-hour economic circle, while the latter is mainly distributed in Eastern Chongqing. Thirdly, the policy effect of NKEFA for ecosystem protection is 1.8445 higher than that of the control group. The mechanism analysis indicates that NKEFA plays a crucial role in restricting population density that improves ESV to a certain extent. It is evident that NKEFA functions through institutional constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) prediction of cities in Western China requires higher accuracy in quantitative demand and spatial layout because of complex challenges in balancing relationships between urban constructions and ecological developments. Considering city-level areas and various types of land use and land cover, existing LUCC models without constraint or with only loose demand constraints were impractical in providing evidence of high accuracy and high-resolution predictions in areas facing fierce land competition. In this study, we proposed a two-layer SD-ANN-CA model to simulate and explore the LUCC trend and layout predictions for 2018, 2028, and 2038 in Ya'an City, Western China. The two-layer structure with an upper layer of the SD model and a lower layer of the ANN-CA model, as well as the advantages of all three methods of system dynamics (SD), artificial neural network (ANN), and cellular automata (CA), have allowed us to consider the macro-level demand constraints, meso-level driving factors constraints, and the micro-level spatial constraints into a unified model framework. The simulation results of the year 2018 have shown significant improvement in the accuracy of the ANN-CA model constructed in our earlier work, especially in types of forest land (error-accuracy: 0.08%), grassland (error-accuracy: 0.23%), and construction land (error-accuracy: 0.18%). The layout predictions of all six types of land use in 2028 and 2038 are then carried out to provide visual evidence support, which may improve the efficiency of planning and policy-making processes. Our work may also provide insights into new ways to combine quantitative methods into spatial methods in constructing city-level or even regional-level LUCC models with high resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological quality in China has experienced significant improvements due to the interplay of climate change and human activities. Nevertheless, previous studies exploring the trend of ecological parameters have always overlooked the effects of land use types. Therefore, in this study, we explored the spatiotemporal variation in ecological parameters in various land use types and discussed the relationship between ecological parameters and climatic factors in China during the first 20 years of the 21st century. The results show that: (1) The area of grassland and unutilized land decreased, and the area of other land use types increased. (2) Distinct variations in the average, slope, and interval distribution of ecological parameters across various land use types were evident. Particularly significant increases in ecological parameters were observed in cultivated land and forest. (3) The influence of land use and land cover change on ecological parameters was evident. The conversion of cultivated land, forest, and grassland into water bodies, constructive land, and unutilized land resulted in a significant decrease in ecological parameters. (4) The distinct climatic conditions resulted in heightened monthly variations in the ecological parameters. Significant monthly fluctuations in ecological parameters were observed for cultivated land, forest, grassland, and constructed land, while water bodies and unutilized land did not exhibit such variations. (5) The correlation between ecological parameters and climatic factors varied considerably in various land use types in different regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The land use changes driven by human activities press a incredible menace to zonal ecological security. As the most active urban cluster, the uncontrolled expansion of cities in the bay area exerts enormous pressure on the ecosystem. Therefore, from the perspective of ecological conservation, exploring future land use optimization patterns and spatial structure is extremely essential for the long-term thriving of the bay area. On this basis, this research integrated the System Dynamics model (SD) as the quantity forecast model and the PLUS model as the spatial emulation model and established the Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) Simulation Framework by setting the constraints of Ecological Security Multi-Scenario Patterns (ESMP). By setting four scenarios in future, that is, Business As Usual (BAU), Priority of Ecological Protection (PEP), Balanced Development Scenario (BD), and Priority of Urban development (PUD), this research predicts LUCC in the Zhejiang Greater Bay Area (ZGBA) in 2035 and explored land use optimization patterns. The results indicate that by 2035, under the scenarios of BAU, BD, and PUD, the construction land will observably grow by 38.86%, 19.63%, and 83.90%, respectively, distributed mainly around the Hangzhou Bay Area, Taizhou Bay Area, and Wenzhou Bay Area, primarily achieved by sacrificing ecologically sensitive lands such as forests to achieve regional high economic growth. Under PEP, the growth of construction land retards, and forest experiences net growth (11.27%), with better landscape connectivity and more cohesive patches compared to other scenarios. Combining regional planning and analysis at the city scale, Hangzhou Bay area (Hangzhou, Huzhou, Jiaxing, Shaoxing, Ningbo) can adopt the BD development scenario, while Zhoushan, Taizhou, Wenzhou and Fuyang County of Hangzhou can adopt the PEP development scenario. This research furnishes a novel mechanism for optimizing land use pattern in ecological security perspective and offers scientific guidance for land resource management and spatial planning in ZGBA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, global climate change and human alterations to land use have led to a decrease in ecosystem services, making ecosystems more vulnerable. However, unlike the well-established risk assessment frameworks used in natural disaster research, the concept of ecological risks arising from changes in land use is still in its early stages, with its nuances and assessment methodologies yet to be clearly defined. This study proposes a new framework for assessing ecological risks resulting from changes in land use in the Tarim River Basin. The framework employs a coupled PLUS and Invest model to evaluate the ecological risks of land use change under three development scenarios projected for the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang by 2035. The findings indicate that: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the predominant land use types in the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang were primarily unused land, followed by grassland and cropland. Conversely, grassland, water, and construction land were relatively less prevalent. During this period, the area of unused land and cultivated land increased, while grassland, forest land, and water exhibited a declining trend. Moving forward, under the three scenarios from 2020 to 2035, land use changes in the study area are characterized by the expansion of cropland and unused land, coupled with a significant decrease in grassland area, while other land categories demonstrate minor fluctuations. (2) From 2020 to 2035, across various scenarios, the total ecosystem service within the study area demonstrates an overall increasing trend in both the northern and southern marginal zones. Specifically, under the baseline scenario, the total amount of ecosystem services in the study area decreased by 15.247% compared to 2020. Similarly, under the economic development scenario, this decrease amounted to 13.358% compared to 2020. Conversely, under the ecological protection scenario, the decrease reached 19.852% compared to 2020. (3) The structure of ecological risk levels from 2020 to 2035, across multiple scenarios, demonstrates a consistent pattern, characterized by a predominant proportion of moderate risk. Conversely, other risk levels occupy relatively smaller proportions of the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The serious problem of soil erosion not only has a profound impact on people's lives but also results in a series of ecological and environmental challenges. To determine the impact of changes in land use type on soil erosion in the urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, this study commences by employing the InVEST-SDR (integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs–sediment delivery ratio) model to calculate soil erosion levels spanning from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, it forecasts land use and land cover (LULC) conditions for the year 2030 under three scenarios: Q1 (natural development), Q2 (ecological protection), and Q3 (economic priority). This projection is accomplished through the integration of a coupled Markov chain and multi-objective planning model (MOP) alongside patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models. Ultimately, based on these outcomes, the study predicts soil erosion levels for the year 2030. There has been a consistent decline in soil erosion from 2000 to 2020 with high-intensity erosion concentrated in the Tianshan Mountain region. Grasslands, glaciers, and permafrost are identified as the most erosion-prone land types in the study area, with forests exhibiting the highest capacity for soil retention. Converting from grassland and barren land to forest within the same area results in a substantial reduction in soil erosion, specifically by 27.3% and 46.3%, respectively. Furthermore, the transformation from barren land to grassland also leads to a noteworthy 19% decrease in soil erosion. Over the past two decades, the study area has witnessed a significant decline in the area of grasslands, with a notable shift towards barren and impervious surfaces due to economic development and mining activities. The three predicted scenarios depict significant expansion towards barren land, grassland, and impervious area, respectively. Soil erosion decreases under different shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios relative to 2020. There is an increase in soil erosion in the Q1 scenario and in the Q3 scenario, whereas the amount of soil erosion in the Q2 scenario exhibits a continued decrease when only the effect of land change on soil erosion is considered. Persistently rapid economic development can exacerbate soil erosion problems, underscoring the need to find a balance between economic growth and ecological conservation. As economic expansion slows down, greater emphasis should be placed on environmental protection to maintain ecological stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rice terraces are crucial for agriculture in China's southern mountainous regions. Land use and land cover change (LUCC) in these areas impact hydrology, but our understanding is limited. In this study, we applied the hydrological assessment tool SWAT to a selected small watershed in the rice terrace-dense area of central Hunan province, China. This study covered four LUCC periods over the past 40 years and was simulated at annual and monthly scales. The results showed that from 1980 to 2020, the areas of paddy fields and drylands decreased by 4.19% and 5.76%, respectively, while the areas of forests and construction land increased by 1.14% and 92.48%, respectively. During the past period, LUCC led to a decrease of 1.77% and 2.49% in runoff and infiltration, respectively, and an increase of 1.03% in ET. However, the water yield remained almost unchanged, indicating that the rice terrace plays a positive role in maintaining stable watershed water yield under LUCC. The results of the sub-basin analysis indicated that the transformation of paddy fields and forests directly determines the trend of hydrological changes. Land use type had the most significant impact on the runoff of the rice-terrace watershed, with the proportions of paddy fields and forests being the most influential factors. Paddy fields significantly influenced the stability of runoff at the watershed scale, suggesting that a high paddy field ratio doesn't ensure sustainability. This study offers valuable insights for managing small watershed terraces, land use planning, and achieving sustainable development in the watershed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current research is conducted to model the effect of climate change and land use change (LUC) on the geographical distribution of Quercus brantii Lindl. (QB) forests across their historical range. Forecasting was done based on six general circulation models under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 future climate change scenarios for the future years 2050 and 2070. In order to model the species distribution, different modeling methods were used. The results indicated that, in general, climatic variables had a higher influence on the distribution of QB than land use–related attributes. The mean diurnal range (bio2), the precipitation seasonality (bio15), and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9) were the main predictors in the distribution of QB forests, while land use variables were less important in oak species distribution. The GBM, MaxEnt, and RF had higher accuracy and performance in modeling species distribution. The outputs also showed that in the current climate circumstances, 97,608.81 km2 of the studied area has high desirability for the presence of QB, and by 2070, under the pessimistic scenario, 96.29% of these habitats will be lost under the concomitant effect of LUC and climate change. By using the results of this research, it is possible to predict and identify the effective factors in changing the habitat of this oak species with more certainty. Based on the insights obtained from the results of such studies, the protection and restoration planning of the habitat of this key species, which supports diverse species, will be provided more efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current research is focused on studying the land use changes in selected sites (total area of 3488 sq. km) of the Uttara Kannada district and the impacts of urbanization of forest degradation. Topographical maps from the Survey of India have been used to mark the study area's boundary. Forest degradation mapping has been conducted through spatiotemporal analysis of LANDSAT and Google Earth imageries for the years 1989, 2001, 2013, and 2020. The decadal change was evaluated throughout the period to delineate the sites of encroachment. The change analysis revealed that 56.6% of the forest area has remained primarily dense; 6.46% of the area has remained unchanged as agricultural area, while almost 0.95% of the total agricultural area has been converted into built-up land or has become barren. Spatiotemporal change analysis also revealed that, overall, 85.1% of the study area has remained unchanged and 4.7% of the area has changed in some form or other. Ground truthing through Google Earth imageries for various periods reveals an increase in the built-up land along the coastal stretch and the north-eastern part of the region. In some places, agricultural lands have been abandoned, which have then been converted into shrublands. The unorganized growth of built-up land and decrease in the forest and agricultural lands have necessitated extensive fieldwork for developing guidelines for the protection of forest areas and planning of built-up and agricultural lands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study area, it includes Darkhan-Uul and Selenge provinces of Mongolia, is included in the most favourable natural-geographical areas, and the migration of people with livestock from the peripheral areas has led to an increase in the population, as well as a sharp increase in the number of grazing animals, resulting in the effects of natural and human activities. give an evaluation, develop the basis for the proper use of the land in the future. In Mongolia, the methods and principles of land evaluation differ depending on the general classification and purpose of land, so considering these characteristics, land evaluation is carried out by (1) the Department of Agriculture, (2) the Department of Urban Development, Industry and Mines, (3) the Department of Roads and Networks, (4) it is divided into types of land with forest reserves (Tserenbaljir, B. Naranchimeg, 2004). In the "instructions for land evaluation" issued by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 1976, in the assessment of land quality, in addition to the main indicators of soil fertility and moisture, climate, land cover and use, chemical pollutions such as an alkaline acidity. In the ecological assessment study, data on land use, soil, vegetation, climate, natural conditions, resources, socio-economic, satellite and field studies were collected in numerical and tabular form. The Ecological assessment in intensive land use is divided into qualitative and quantitative assessment. The Qualitative assessment predicts ecological properties. The Quantitative methods use multi-species numerical methods to record ecological elements and calculate the overall percentage of ecological characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change profoundly alters land use in alpine regions, and delving into the evolutionary characteristics of these changes is crucial for the sustainable development of regional land resources and the gradual enhancement of the ecological environment. Taking the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow River (SRYAYE) as a case study, we integrate permafrost and snowfall data into the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS). Analyzing historical land use, we predict and simulate the land use scenarios for 2030, 2035, and 2060 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climates, and conduct a detailed analysis of the scale, composition, and pattern of land use in this area. Scale. The results showed that ① the Kappa coefficient of the improved FLUS model was higher than 0.927, and that the overall accuracy of the simulation was increased by 2.64%; ② the area of forest land and the high-coverage grassland will increase in the future and the center of gravity will migrate to the west, and that the area of moderate and low-coverage grassland will slightly decrease but tend to become green to the west; and ③ the fragmentation degree of the SRYAYE is decreasing, and the influence of human activities on the landscape pattern is weaker than in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution of biodiversity to the global economy, human survival, and welfare has been significantly increasing. However, nature reserves have long been subject to a sequence of ecological environmental issues caused by human activities. Therefore, quantitatively assessing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality due to land use changes and exploring the mechanisms of potential influencing factors can provide a scientific basis for the stable and sustainable development of natural ecosystems. This study aims to analyze 18 nature reserves in Hubei Province to identify the spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality within these reserves and to explore the influence of multifactorial dynamics from nature, humanity, and policy on this evolution. Initially, the study utilizes land use transition matrices and land use dynamic degree methods to understand the spatiotemporal characteristics of land conversion within the study area. Subsequently, it analyzes the spatiotemporal changes in habitat quality from 2000–2020 based on the InVEST model and tools like spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) in ArcGIS. Finally, 14 potential influencing factors are selected from natural environment, socio-human, and policy regulation aspects and analyzed in the Geodetector software to understand the factors affecting the spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality. The results show that, during the study period, the land area of 18 nature reserves in Hubei Province increased from 2000 to 2020, while the water area decreased. There were slight increases in farmland, construction land, and forest land, with significant decreases in grassland and water areas. This reveals the erosion of water bodies due to artificial lake filling during rapid urbanization, leading to a decline in overall habitat quality within the reserves and a gradual increase in spatial heterogeneity. Among the influencing factors, single-factor influences such as land use intensity and distance to county roads and slopes have a strong negative linear relationship with habitat quality, with land use intensity being the most significant human activity factor. The interaction strength among different types of influencing factors in the bivariate interaction detection results is ranked as follows: the interaction between natural geographical and socio-human factors > the interaction within socio-human factors > the interaction within natural geographical factors. This study has diverged from the past focus on the selection of a single continuous natural reserve as the empirical subject. Consequently, it allows for an integrated analysis of physical geographical dimensions such as locational topography with socio-cultural and policy elements including land use and transportation facilities, thereby facilitating a multifactorial assessment of the interactive impacts on habitat quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploring the mechanisms that drive land use and cover change (LUCC) is essential for informing the formulation and implementation of effective policies aimed at optimizing land use patterns. In this study, we examined the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC within the Lancang–Mekong River Basin (LMRB) using Globeland30 data for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Firstly, we analyzed the quantitative characteristics of LUCC within the LMRB in terms of the value of change and rate of change. Additionally, we investigated the converting characteristics of LUCC within the LMRB by employing land use transition matrices and land use transition probability matrices. Furthermore, we depicted the spatial distribution of LUCC within the LMRB through land use mapping and statistical analysis. The results indicate a substantial decline in forests, coupled with a notable expansion in cultivated land. Given the vital role of forests as carbon sinks, reforestation can enhance ecological services and address challenges related to climate change. Converting cultivated land to forests is an effective human intervention promoting forest transition. This study applies binary logistic models to explore the mechanisms that influence the conversion from cultivated land to forests. The results reveal that slopes ranging from 5° to 15° have the lowest probability of conversion, whereas distances between the cultivated land and the nearest tourist attraction ranging from 9 km to 18 km have the highest probability. Moreover, the conversion process is positively associated with traffic conditions and significantly influenced by human interventions. Within the study area, China, Laos, and Myanmar show a tendency to convert cultivated land into natural LULC types, while Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam tend to encroach on cultivated land and expand artificial surfaces. Promoting ecological restoration in the LMRB requires cooperation among these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southeastern United States was historically characterized by open forests featuring fire-adapted species before land-use change. We compared tree composition and densities of historical tree surveys (1802 to 1841) to contemporary tree surveys, with the application of a similarity metric, in the Coastal Plain ecological province of Mississippi, southeastern USA. We detected the boundary between historical pine and oak-pine open forests and differentiated historical and current forests. In the Coastal Plain, historical open forests converted from fire-tolerant longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) dominance, with pines comprising 88% of all trees, to loblolly (Pinus taeda) and slash (P. elliottii) pines within monocultures (45% of all trees). Wetland and successional tree species increased to 33% of all trees. Contemporary forests have greater tree densities, transitioning from closed woodlands (range of 168 to 268 trees ha−1) to closed forests (336 trees ha−1). In the ecotonal boundary of the northern Coastal Plain between historical pine and pine-oak woodlands, the pine component shifted over space from 88% to 34% of all trees due to a greater oak component. Fire-tolerant shortleaf pine and oak dominance converted to planted loblolly pine (52% of all trees), while successional tree species increased (20% of all trees). Historical tree densities represented woodlands (range of 144 to 204 trees ha−1) but developed into closed forests (400 trees ha−1). Historical Coastal Plain longleaf pine woodlands differed more from historical ecotonal oak-pine woodlands than contemporary forests differed from each other, demonstrating unique historical ecosystems and landscape-scale homogenization of ecosystems through forestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal regions stand as pivotal zones of interaction between the marine and terrestrial environments, holding substantial significance for both ecosystems and human societies. Since the 1980s, China's coastal zones (CCZ) have undergone rapid economic expansion, a surge in urban development activities, and a considerable population increase, instigating significant alterations in land use along the coast. However, in recent years, studies regarding changes in land use along China's coastal zones have been notably scarce. Utilizing the Comprehensive Lands Cover Database (CLCD) dataset, this study scrutinized the spatiotemporal patterns of land use along the Chinese coastline since 1985. It delved into the temporal and spatial variations in land use, ecological land transformations, and the spatiotemporal evolution of land use development intensity, examining these facets across provinces, municipalities, and different distance bands from the coastal zone. The research findings indicated: Overall, cropland and forest land predominantly occupied coastal zones, encompassing over 80% of the total area. Between 1985 and 2020, the primary changes involved a decrease in cropland and an increase in construction land, with a reduction of 5.97% in cropland, largely transitioning into construction land (84927.21 km²) and forest land (4218.55 km²), resulting in a 5.98% increase in construction land. Despite the intensification of land development, ecological land exhibited an initial rise followed by a declining trend. There existed distinct disparities in land use patterns among provinces and cities, with cropland and forest land prevailing in all areas except Macau. Construction land and land use development intensity witnessed significant increases, most notably in Macau and least pronouncedly in Guangxi. Variations in ecological land alterations were considerable, with Hebei and Guangdong witnessing increases while other regions tended towards stability or reduction. Each distance band manifests a unique land use pattern. Except for the 100-150 km zone, construction land demonstrates an increasing trend across all bands. Ecological land expanded initially but fluctuated further from the coastline. Land use development intensity decreased initially, then stabilized, with the 0-10 km zone showed the highest development intensity. Analyzing the spatiotemporal changes in land use along China's coastal zones from 1985 to 2020 can offer valuable insights into the management and sustainable development of China's coastal zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The arid regions of northwest China suffer from water shortages, low land quality, and a fragile ecological environment, while social and economic development has increased the ecological and environmental load. The spatiotemporal pattern and evolutionary trend of ecological environmental quality were investigated by constructing a remote sensing-based ecological environmental index (EQI) evaluation model incorporating four indicators: drought index (DI), soil erosion index (SEI), greenness index (GI), and carbon exchange index (CEI). The study found that between 2001 and 2020, the DI, the SEI, and the CEI in the northwest arid region exhibited a downward trend with reduction rates of − 3e−05, −0.0006, and −0.0018, respectively. However, the GI demonstrated an upward trend, with a growth rate of 0.002. The average EQI in 2020 was 0.315, indicating a fair grade, with only 11.56% falling above the medium level. A general increasing trend was observed throughout the study period in EQI, with an incremental rate of 0.0002. Areas with future improvements in EQI accounted for 57.547% and were principally located in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and the northern and southern portions of Xinjiang. Notably, land use was significantly correlated with EQI (p < 0.01), with a hierarchy of effects that ran: forest land (0.678) > cultivated land (0.422) > grassland (0.382) > wasteland (0.138). The highly robust findings presented here offer innovative methods for ecological and environmental monitoring in the arid region of the northwest, with potential implications at an international scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most studies on the ecosystem service value (ESV) only focus on spatial/temporal heterogeneity or single driving effects, but little is known about the combined effects of nature-human activity-policy on ESV in the fragile karst areas. This study aimed to investigate the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of ESV between 1990 and 2020 in a representative karst trough valley in SW China. The dynamic degree of land use, the land-use transfer matrix, sensitive analyses, Geo-Detector, and Hot- and cold-spots analyses were used to determine the interactions between ESV and the natural, human activity, and policy-driving factors. The results showed that from 1990 to 2020, forestland accounted for more than 62.32% of the total area, and construction land increased continuously as a result of urbanization. The conversion from forestland to cropland dominated the land-use transfer. The ESV decreased sharply between 1990 and 2000 and slowly increased from 2000 to 2020, causing a total reduction of 562.91 million yuan in ESV, due largely to the occupation of forestland and grassland by cropland. Soil type (8.00%) had the largest explanation rate for the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of ESV, followed by population density (7.71%) and altitude (6.34%). Policy factors not only markedly influenced the ecosystem structure and function and tradeoff and synergy but also regulated their interactions with other driving factors. Our results have great significance for understanding the interaction effect of natural sources and human activities on changes in ESV in karst areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several efforts have been made to model forest structure and estimate global aboveground biomass (AGB) magnitude and distribution. However, AGB models still show large uncertainties, especially over tropical mountains that are difficult to survey and understudied. Although forest disturbance and land use greatly influence forest structure and AGB accumulation, they are rarely considered in forest structure and AGB models. Including the effect of forest disturbance and land use could improve model performance. In this study, we used Landsat time series analysis and forest inventory data to assess and model the effect of small‐scale disturbance and land use on tropical montane forest structure and AGB. We explored two approaches: abrupt forest change detection, using the algorithm Breaks For Additive Seasonal Trend (BFAST), and gradual vegetation change by calculating the variation of remote sensing vegetation indices over time. We found that tropical montane landscapes are very dynamic and heterogenous. Out of the 284 forest plots analyzed, 27% had abrupt disturbances at least once between 1993 and 2014, and some of them showed abrupt disturbances several times. Forest plots with abrupt disturbances exhibit statistically significant lower basal area, tree height, and AGB than plots without abrupt disturbances. Using linear mixed‐effects models, we found that the number of breakpoints, annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index SD, and Normalized Difference Water Index minimum values over time were the most informative variables for predicting forest structure, particularly basal area (adjusted R2 = 0.61). These variables are easy to calculate and could add significant power to forest structure and AGB models. In conclusion, incorporating small‐scale disturbance to model forest structure and AGB at regional scales is feasible through the identification of recent abrupt and gradual forest change using remote sensing time series. Including recent forest disturbance variables as predictors in forest structure models can greatly improve biomass predictability and mapping in dynamic landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of the forest coverage rate (FCR) is related to the ecological environment and sustainable development goals (SDGs) of a region. In light of the lack of an organic integration method of "spatiotemporal evolution, correlation analysis, and change prediction" and the lack of a methodology that integrates methods of "remote sensing (RS) and GIS, multi-phase LUCC, and construction of econometric models" in the research methods at present, this study focus on Yunnan, a typical border province located in China with a relatively fragile "innate" ecological environment, as the research area. Based on the interpretation of land use/land cover (LULC) data retrieved from seven periods RS images (1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020), the spatiotemporal evolution of FCR in 129 counties was analyzed. Complementary research methods, such as the spatial econometric model, geographically weighted regression (GWR), and the geographic detector (GD), are used to reveal the influencing factors of FCR. Finally, this study predicts the FCRs of 129 counties in Yunnan from 2025 to 2050. The FCR in Yunnan presents an increasing trend year by year, increasing from 28.96% in 1990 to 49.05% in 2020. In addition, it exhibits spatial agglomeration characteristics with fewer values in the east and more in the west. The analysis of influencing factors show that the increases in the per capita GDP, land utilization rate, and annual average temperature, and the implementation of the Conversion of Cultivated Land into Forest Project (CCFP) will significantly improve the FCR, while the increases in the population density land reclamation rate, the proportion of construction land area, and the proportion of soil erosion land area will significantly reduce the FCR. Furthermore, the FCR is influenced by multiple factors, and the relative factors observed not only show significant spatial differences, but also present complex and diverse patterns, with the additional characteristics of being interwoven and overlapping. This study contributes to expanding and improving the methods and pathways of exploring the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of FCR in ecologically fragile areas using RS methods, providing a reference for increasing FCR and improving the ecological environment's quality in Yunnan Province and other ecologically fragile areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main challenge in protecting ecosystems and improving the supply of ecosystem services is to quantify the ecological services value (ESV). However, the detailed spatiotemporal changes, sensitivity, spatial autocorrelation, and driving mechanisms of ESV are not clear in rapidly developing regions, particularly subsidence, floods, landslides, and the rapid urban development of Anhui province, China. In this paper, the ecological service value of Anhui Province in the past 30 years was calculated using the improved equivalent factor assessment method from satellite remote sensing such as Landsat. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ESV were analyzed and the driving mechanism of ESV changes was studied using Geodetector. Finally, The GeoSOS-FLUS model was selected to predict the ecosystem service value until 2030 with three scenarios: business as usual (BAU), ecological protection (EP), and cultivated land protection (CLP). The main results were obtained: (1) the ESV in Anhui Province continued to decrease by 2.045 billion yuan (−6.03%) from 1990 to 2020. The top two contributors were the forest land, followed by water area. (2) The global Moran's I of ESV at the landform subdivision, county, town, and grid scales in Anhui Province were −0.157, 0.321, 0.357 and 0.759, respectively. (3) The order of influence degree of driving factors was: precipitation (F4), distance to intercity road (F9), net primary productivity, NPP (F6), distance to urban road (F8), population (F13), temperature (F5), aspect (F3), distance to settlement (F11), slope (F2), elevation (F1), GDP (F14), distance to water (F12), distance to railway (F10), and soil erosion (F7). (4) In 2030, the simulated ESV under the three scenarios will decrease to varying degrees. Compared with 2020, the ESV of the three scenarios will decrease successively as follows: BAU (−1.358 billion yuan), EP (−0.248 billion yuan), and CLP (−1.139 billion yuan). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information regarding land use and land cover (LULC) is essential for regional land and forest management. The contribution of reliable LULC information remains a challenge depending on the use of remote sensing data and classification methods. This study conducted a multiclass LULC classification of an intricate mangrove ecosystem using the U-Net model with PlanetScope and Sentinel-2 imagery and compared it with an artificial neural network model. We mainly used the blue, green, red, and near-infrared bands, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and normalized difference water index (NDWI) of each satellite image. The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Canopy Height Model (CHM) were also integrated to leverage the model performance in mixed ecosystems of mangrove and non-mangrove forest areas. Through a labeled image created from field ground truth points, the models were trained and evaluated using the metrics of overall accuracy, Intersection over Union, F1 score, precision, and recall of each class. The results demonstrated that the combination of PlanetScope bands, spectral indices, DEM, and CHM yielded superior performance for both the U-Net and ANN models, achieving a higher overall accuracy (94.05% and 92.82%), mean IoU (0.82 and 0.79), mean F1 scores (0.94 and 0.93), recall (0.94 and 0.93), and precision (0.94). In contrast, models utilizing the Sentinel-2 dataset showed lower overall accuracy (86.94% and 82.08%), mean IoU (0.71 and 0.63), mean F1 scores (0.87 and 0.81), recall (0.87 and 0.82), and precision (0.87 and 0.81). The best-classified image, which was produced by U-Net using the PlanetScope dataset, was exported to create an LULC map of the Wunbaik Mangrove Area in Myanmar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the paper was to assess the production capacity of the lands in Periam, Timiș County, in wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower. We chose 17 more important and better determining indicators and, based on them, we established, for each crop, the credit ratings, after which we classified the soils in the studied area into fertility classes. In accordance with the methodology for developing pedological studies, the degree of suitability was determined for each of the four crops: 91.73% of the area of this locality is represented by agricultural land, of which arable land represents 79.22%. and 0.41% is forested land. Following the evaluation of arable land (4,663 ha), it was found that 45.38% fall into the first class, 33.63% in Class II, 20.10% in Class III, and 0.89% in Class IV, with an average grade of 75. This makes these lands highly productive. As a general conclusion, each farmer should periodically evaluate the fertility of the farm soils, make a balance of the nutrient requirements for each crop by considering the plants' requirements according to the vegetation phase, the technology applied, the local soil land climate conditions based on realistic forecasts. In this way, a series of costs with fertilizers and soil work are reduced, the excess is eliminated, and the deficiency of nutrients is corrected, the recommended doses are fractionated and applied differently depending on the needs of the plant, the humidity, the reaction and the texture of the soil. Following the results obtained, it appears that these lands have a high production capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reduction of CO 2 emissions and the enhancement of CO 2 removals related to land use are considered essential for future pathways towards net-zero emissions and mitigating climate change. With the growing pressure under global climate treaties, country-level land-use CO 2 flux data are becoming increasingly important. So far, country-level estimates are mainly available through official country reports, such as the greenhouse gas inventories reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Recently, different modelling approaches, namely dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and bookkeeping models, have moved to higher spatial resolutions, which makes it possible to obtain model-based country-level estimates that are globally consistent in their methodology. To progress towards a largely independent assessment of country reports using models, we analyse the robustness of country-level CO 2 flux estimates from different modelling approaches in the period 1950–2021 and compare them with estimates from country reports. Our results highlight the general ability of modelling approaches to estimate land-use CO 2 fluxes at the country level and at higher spatial resolution. Modelled land-use CO 2 flux estimates generally agree well, but the investigation of multiple DGVMs and bookkeeping models reveals that the robustness of their estimates strongly varies across countries, and substantial uncertainties remain, even for top emitters. Similarly, modelled land-use CO 2 flux estimates and country-report-based estimates agree reasonably well in many countries once their differing definitions are accounted for, although differences remain in some other countries. A separate analysis of CO 2 emissions and removals from land use using bookkeeping models also shows that historical peaks in net fluxes stem from emission peaks in most countries, whereas the long-term trends are more connected to removal dynamics. The ratio of the net flux to the sum of CO 2 emissions and removals from land use (the net-to-gross flux ratio) underlines the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the drivers of net land-use CO 2 flux trends. In many tropical regions, net-to-gross flux ratios of about 50 % are due to much larger emissions than removals; in many temperate countries, ratios close to zero show that emissions and removals largely offset each other. Considering only the net flux thus potentially masks large emissions and removals and the different timescales upon which they act, particularly if averaged over countries or larger regions, highlighting the need for future studies to focus more on the gross fluxes. Data from this study are openly available via the Zenodo portal at 10.5281/zenodo.8144174. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The sweeping transformation of the biosphere by humans over the last millennia leaves only limited windows into its natural state. Much of the forests that dominated temperate and southern boreal regions have been lost and those that remain typically bear a strong imprint of forestry activities and past land‐use change, which have changed forest age structure and composition. Here, we ask how would the dynamics, structure and function of temperate and boreal forests differ in the absence of forestry and the legacies of land‐use change? Location: Global. Time Period: 2001–2014, integrating over the legacy of disturbance events from 1875 to 2014. Major Taxa Studied: Trees. Methods: We constructed an empirical model of natural disturbance probability as a function of community traits and climate, based on observed disturbance rate and form across 77 protected forest landscapes distributed across three continents. Coupling this within a dynamic vegetation model simulating forest composition and structure, we generated estimates of stand‐replacing disturbance return intervals in the absence of forestry for northern hemisphere temperate and boreal forests. We then applied this model to calculate forest stand age structure and carbon turnover rates. Results: Comparison with observed disturbance rates revealed human activities to have almost halved the median return interval of stand‐replacing disturbances across temperate forest, with more moderate changes in the boreal region. The resulting forests are typically much younger, especially in northern Europe and south‐eastern North America, resulting in a 32% reduction in vegetation carbon turnover time across temperate forests and a 7% reduction for boreal forests. Conclusions: The current northern hemisphere temperate forest age structure is dramatically out of equilibrium with its natural disturbance regimes. Shifts towards more nature‐based approaches to forest policy and management should more explicitly consider the current disturbance surplus, as it substantially impacts carbon dynamics and litter (including deadwood) stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human-induced land degradation in biodiverse regions like Mount Elgon threatens vital ecosystems. This study employs drone mapping and community insights to assess land use changes, degradation, and restoration in Mount Elgon, Uganda. Drone monitoring (2020–2023) covered six sites, complemented by household surveys (n = 499), Focus Group Discussions (FDGs), and interviews. Drone imagery shows agriculture and planted forest as dominant land use types, gradually replacing tropical high forest, bushland, and grassland. Drone image results showed that smallholder subsistence farming is leading to and enhancing degradation. Landslides and encroachment into the park were detected in three of the six sites. Trenches were the most adopted Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) measure. The trench adoption varied by location and crop type, creating restoration potential, notably in Elgon, Nabyoko, and Shiteka. Interviews and FGDs revealed adoption of trenches, grass strips, and afforestation as remedies to land degradation. Complex interactions exists among land use, degradation, and SWC measures in the upper Manafwa watershed, underscoring the urgency of addressing landslides and encroachment into the forest. Community-based initiatives are vital for hands-on SWC training, emphasizing long-term benefits. Collaboration among government, local communities, and NGOs is crucial to enforce conservation and restore Mt. Elgon National Park, while encouraging diversified income sources can reduce land dependency and mitigate degradation risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the combined impact of watershed attributes on streamflow is crucial in water resources planning and management, particularly due to the strong link between landscape modification and watershed attributes. However, identifying critical watershed attributes remains a challenge. This study focuses on investigating the impact of watershed attributes on streamflow in the Hare catchment of Ethiopia's rift valley lakes basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall–runoff model was used, calibrated, and validated against observed discharge data to identify remedial measures for streamflow generation. The model's performance was evaluated using criteria such as R2, NSE, PBIAS, and RSR, which yielded satisfactory values. The study found significant changes in land cover, with forest and shrub land declining and agricultural land expanding. Comparing mean annual streamflow between 1998, 2009, and 2021, streamflow at 2021 land use and land cover increased by 13.03% compared to 2009, which had already increased by 16.05% compared to 1998. The study also examined the impact of climate variations by manipulating meteorological data length and average slope. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the relationship between watershed attributes and streamflow, emphasizing the importance of considering land cover changes and climate variations for effective water resource management in the Hare catchment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of land use on water quality is spatially scale-dependent. Exploring the relationship between land use pattern and river water quality provides an important basis for water quality safety and land planning. This study explores the effect of land use patterns on surface water quality using land use data and water quality data of 16 sampling points in the middle reach of the Huai River. It investigates the water quality status of the middle reach of the Huai River and the relationship between land use patterns and water quality indices at 100, 500, and 1000 m and watershed scales utilising Spearman correlation, redundancy analysis (RDA), and multiple linear regression analysis. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the water pollutants in the middle reach of the Huai River are mainly total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP). Redundancy analysis (RDA) indicated that the impact of land use patterns on water quality is significant on watershed scales. Spearman correlation indicated that water quality and land use showed significant correlation differences, the building land was positively correlated with TP, TN and NH3-N, the cultivated land was positively correlated with TN, and the grassland was negatively correlated with TP and NH3-N. This studies have revealed that building land acts as a 'source' of pollutants, grassland purifies the load of TP and NH3-N, and forest land has the effect of interception and deposition of pollutants. The results can provide important information for land use planning and water quality protection measures at multiple spatial scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use changes affect soil and biomass carbon sequestration potential of the agroecosystems of most Sub-Sahara Africa facing rising temperatures due to global climate change. One such ecosystem is the Owabi reservoir catchment in Ghana, which has undergone extensive changes in land use through urbanization. Our study aimed to determine the impact of the spatial and temporal variability of the different land uses on soil and biomass carbon storage in the Owabi catchment. Land use/cover maps were elaborated using SPOT satellite images of 30 × 30-m resolution and Erdas Imagine and ArcGIS Pro softwares. Soil and vegetation were sampled along three transects in the Y plane in early 2014. Nested plot design and temporary sample plots of 50 × 50 m were demarcated within a 1 ha plot in each of the land uses. Trees, herbs and litter were sampled to assess aboveground carbon, and soil samples were taken at 0–15 cm and 15–30 cm depth. Belowground (root) biomass was calculated using the root:shoot ratio. Seven (7) land use types – dense forest, sparse forest, grassland, cropland, wetland, settlement, and excavated land – were identified and differences in carbon stocks were assessed. Soil carbon stock (0–30 cm) ranged from 51.80 Mg/ha in dense forest to 7.00 Mg/ha in excavated land. Our study showed that the conversion of forest lands to other land uses through excavation resulted in about 30-folds loss in carbon and also a major loss of carbon in the catchment from c. 1.4 × 106 Mg C in 1990 to 0.55 × 106 Mg C in 2014. Enhancing forests or growing trees to sequester carbon seems to be the optimum choice among the seven land uses if the introduction of payment for environmental services options is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowing the temporal and spatial changes of land use and the formation of heat islands over time is one of the most important issues in metropolitan planning and policy making. Thus, in this study heat islands and temperature changes and its relationship with land use changes have been monitored over a period of 35 years in two study areas, i.e. the cities of Mashhad and Sari, using the Google Earth Engine platform. For this purpose, the LST was computed and the land use maps of the studied periods were extracted during 8 time steps of 5 years from 1985 to 2020. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial autocorrelation of heat islands and its relationship with land use in two studied regions with different climatic conditions. The results of temperature monitoring showed an increase in temperature between 1 to 2 °C in all types of land uses during 35 years. This increasing trend of temperature is proportional to the type of land use changes, so that the temperature increase in built-up lands was estimated to be 2 and 1.75 degrees Celsius in the cities of Sari and Mashhad, respectively. The average temperature of the three months of summer in Mashhad city in built-up areas has increased from 34.5°C to 36.25°C and in Sari city from 29.51°C to 31.51°C. while the minimum increase in temperature has occurred in the lands with forest coverage, which is 1.02 °C and 1.19 °C, respectively in the cities of Sari and Mashhad. Conclusively, in both climatic regions, the areas where the changes are in the direction of reducing or removing vegetation and creating residential areas, the temperature increase is the maximum, and the areas where the changes are in the direction of increasing forests and agricultural lands, the temperature increase is the minimum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agrarian change affects the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES) by reducing the extent of natural ecosystems. Agricultural intensification can lead to changes in land covers and livelihood opportunities and it remains unclear how such changes align or misalign with the desires of local communities. Using participatry mapping, we assessed ES uses and desires of Indigenous people and local communities provided by different land cover types along a gradient of agricultural intensification (forest subsistence, agroforestry mosaic, and monoculture and market-dependence) in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. We found that mapped ES use diversity was highest in the forest-dependent zone and lowest near monoculture agricultural systems. The expressed ES uses and desires varied greatly among land cover types amidst loss of old-growth forest and greater reliance on secondary forest and shrub land. The spatial analysis showed that high priority areas of ES use was related to access in the landscape, demonstrating the importance of attending to place-based social values in ES assessments. From this study, we call for a people-centric spatial modelling approach to address the divergence of social and cultural ES values associated with land covers under different intensification contexts. Participatory mapping clarifies the ES desires of local communities, which state policy often fails to address. We recommend a place specific management strategy to reduce ES trade-offs of specific land use practices, which are currently apparent with agrarian change in Indonesia and relevant for other tropical developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecological environment in the mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang is very sensitive and fragile, and identifying the ecological asset retention within the mountainous areas is a top priority at the current stage in the context of comprehensive environmental management in arid zones. This study examines the conversion and ecosystem service values between different land types within the mountainous areas based on a time series of land-use data from 1990 to 2020, and the results show that: (1) The value of ecosystem services on the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains shows an overall increasing trend. It increased from CNY 308.645 billion in 1990 to CNY 326.550 billion in 2020. Among them, the value of ecosystem services increased significantly between 2000 and 2010, with an increase of CNY 39.857 billion. Regulatory services accounted for more than 66% of the value of each ecosystem service. (2) Land use on the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains has changed significantly since 1990. The areas of cropland, forest land, grassland, watershed, and construction land have all shown an upward trend, with the greatest increase in construction land. The area of unutilized land, on the other hand, has slightly decreased. (3) The value of ecosystem services within the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains was spatially high in the south, low in the north, and higher in the west than in the east. The study also found a significant positive spatial correlation between ecosystem service values. In the spatial distribution, the increasing areas were mainly distributed in the southeast, and the decreasing areas were in the north. Changes in land types are expected to include an increase in the area of grassland and woodland, a decrease in unutilized land and cropland, and an overall improvement in the ecological environment of the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains in the next decade. This study also provides lessons and references for sustainable development and ecological protection in ecologically fragile regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) has undergone profound climate and land-use change. These transformations are anticipated to affect the availability of water resources, potentially causing substantial perturbations to the equilibrium between water availability and societal needs. Consequently, research is warranted to explore the ramifications of climate and land-use change on the water provision service, particularly their impacts on the delicate equilibrium between supply and demand. To quantify the water supply–demand relationship, this study introduces the water supply and demand index (WSDR). This study examines the impacts of climate and land-use change on the actual evapotranspiration, water yield, and WSDR in the YRB from 1995 to 2019. According to the results, the YRB experienced an increase in forest land by 4.72%, grassland by 1.71%, and a substantial surge of 595.36% in construction land; however, cropland witnessed a decrease of 5.95%. The climate exhibited a discernible wetting trend (3.38 mm/year, p < 0.01). The actual evapotranspiration significantly increased by 2.45 mm/year (p < 0.01), but this increase was not substantial enough to result in a decline in the water yield, since precipitation also increased. The annual water demand depth demonstrated a statistically significant increasing trend (0.13 mm/year, p < 0.01), but this increase was not sufficient to cause a decrease in the WSDR, since the water yield also increased (0.94 mm/year). Land use had a significantly negative effect on the water yield and WSDR, but this negative effect was offset by the positive effects of climate variability. At the basin scale, there exists a surplus of water resources (WSDR > 0). Nevertheless, regions grappling with water resource deficits (WSDR < 0) have witnessed an increase from 18% in 1995 to 26% in 2019. This indicates that the primary water resource problem in the YRB is the uneven spatial distribution of water resources. Hence, implementing spatial management strategies at larger scales may be instrumental in mitigating water scarcity in the region. These findings can serve as a valuable reference for the management of water resources, as well as for basin planning and construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Maitenrehue census district (37°47'55" Lat. South, 72°42'30" Long. West) is located in the coastal mountain range of the Araucania region, Chile. In the second half of the 19th century colonisation began, modifying the area for agricultural use. The agrarian communities based their production systems on subsistence schemes (exploitation of the forest, livestock and cereals) on soils with little productive capacity. Since the 1970s, the area of land under agricultural use and native forest decreased by 87% and 16% respectively being replaced by forest plantations for industrial purposes which increased by 2869%; at the same time (19602017) the population of the district decreased by 78.3%, with an increase in the older adult and male population. The background allows us to conclude that from the 1970s onwards the economic dynamics of the territory directed land use towards industrial forestry plantations significantly increasing its surface area using a non-integrative production system that was alien to the peasants who inhabited the territory; also under the social and economic context of vulnerability present in rural communities the process of migration of the population and the continuous depopulation of the district accelerated from that moment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitatively revealing the response of carbon stocks to land use change (LUCC) and analyzing the vulnerability of ecosystem carbon stock (ECS) services are of great significance for maintaining the carbon cycle and ecological security. For this study, China's Guizhou Province was the study area. Land use data in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were selected to explore the impacts of LUCC on carbon stocks in multiple scenarios by combining the PLUS and InVEST models and then analyzing the vulnerability of ECS services. The results show that forest land plays an important role in improving ECS services in karst plateau mountainous areas. In 2000–2020, forest land expansion offset the carbon stock reduced by the expansion of built-up land, greatly improving the regional ECS function. Following the natural trend (NT), the total carbon stock in Guizhou Province will decrease by 1.86 Tg; however, under ecological protection (EP) measures, the ECS service performs a positive function for LUCC. Focusing on socioeconomic development (ED) will increase the vulnerability of the regional ECS service. In the future, the forest land area size should be increased, and built-up land should be restricted to better improve the service function of ECS in karst plateau mountainous areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional habitat quality is an important reflection of ecosystem services and ecosystem health. Exploring the characteristics of habitat quality changes and revealing the vulnerability of regional ecosystems caused could provide reference for the improvement of ecological service functions and the protection of regional ecological environment. Based on remote sensing data of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2015, InVEST model and grid analysis were used to analyze the evolution characteristics of habitat quality and landscape pattern, and spatial autocorrelation was also used to analyze the spatial correlation and temporal evolution characteristics. The results showed: (1) Arable land, grassland, and forest land were the main landscape types in Shaanxi province, accounting for more than 94% of the total area, and the arable land and unused land showed a decreasing trend, while the grassland and forest land showed an increasing trend, and the proportion of construction land continued to increase with the rapid economic development from 2000 to 2015; (2) The spatial distribution characteristics of habitat quality was similar to land use cover change, which was "high in the southern and central forest areas, low in the northern sandy land and central urban agglomeration", and habitat quality value showed a steady increase, indicating that the habitat quality was getting better; (3) The landscape pattern index values of Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration changed significantly, which tended to be fragmented, and the landscape types were more diverse and uniform; (4) There were obvious spatial correlation between habitat quality and landscape pattern, and the spatial differentiation of clustering was obvious, and the clustering effect of habitat quality and landscape pattern characteristics would weaken with the increase in urbanization degree. The analysis of the spatial association between habitat quality and landscape pattern could provide scientific support for ecological protection and landscape planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]