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The frequency of flash floods resulting from heavy rainfall over West Africa has increased in recent years with serious socio‐economic consequences. Therefore, the need to utilize numerical weather prediction models to forecast heavy rainfall events reliably is also rising at many operational meteorological centres in West Africa. This paper evaluates the performance of the Consortium for Small‐scale Modelling (COSMO) model of the German Meteorological Services (DWD) in predicting rainfall over West Africa for high‐impact rainfall events that occurred between 19 and 26 August 2017. The paper aims to investigate the synoptic forcings modulating daily rainfall variability during that period. Results show that COSMO simulates adequately the spatio‐temporal variability of rainfall distribution over West Africa, though with inherent biases. COSMO displays a decreasing skill in producing spatial rainfall distribution as rainfall amounts tend to 30 mm and above. Additionally, areas of heavy rainfall, mostly about 100–300 km southwest of the core of the Africa Easterly Jet (AEJ), often coincide with areas of decreasing mean sea level pressure of at least 0.6 hPa and areas of increasing convective available potential energy of at least 500 J/kg. Although not in all cases, the trough of the Africa Easterly Wave (AEW) is always located to the east of these areas. We show that not every storm, especially east of the prime meridian, is associated with an AEW trough. COSMO is able to reproduce the atmospheric dynamics modulating the daily rainfall variability, in addition to capturing the daily propagation of the AEW trough, and the core of the AEJ. However, the reproducibility skill of the model in predicting atmospheric dynamics may not transform into the predictive skill of the model in producing rainfall. Nevertheless, operational forecasters may be able to determine likely areas of heavy rainfall by estimating the position of the AEJ core based on the position of areas of the least falling pressure from COSMO. Finally, the incorporation of the fractions skill score metric based on the neighbourhood approach could also assist operational forecasters to decide at which scale a severe weather alert can be issued. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability and change greatly affect agricultural and water resource management over West Africa. This paper presents the current characteristics and projected change in regional crop water demand (CWD), irrigation requirement (IR), and water availability (WA) over West Africa. Observed and simulated daily rainfall, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and evapotranspiration are used to derive the above agro-meteorological and hydrological variables. For future periods, high-resolution climate data from three regional climate models under two different scenarios, i.e., representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, are considered. Evaluation of the characteristics of present-day CWD, IR, and WA indicated that the ensemble mean of the model-derived outputs reproduced the prevailing spatial patterns of CWD and IR. Moreover, the wetter part of the domain, especially along the southern coast, was correctly delineated from the drier northern regions, despite having biases. The ensemble model also simulated the annual cycle of water supply and the bimodal pattern of the water demand curves correctly. In terms of future projections, the outcomes from the study suggest an average increase in the CWD by up to 0.808 mm/day and IR by 1.244 mm/day towards the end of the twenty-first century, compared to the baseline period. The hot-spot areas, where there is higher projected increment in CWD and IR, are over Senegal, Southern Mali, and Western Burkina Faso. In most cases, WA is projected to decrease towards the end of the twenty-first century by −0.418 mm/day. The largest decline in WA is found to be over Guinea and most of the eastern parts of West Africa. Despite the current under-utilization of the existing groundwater resources, the threat of global warming in reducing future WA and increasing CWD suggested caution on the scale of irrigation schemes and management strategies. The outcomes from the study could be a crucial input for the agricultural and water managers for introducing effective measures to ensure sustainability of irrigated farm lands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews West African land/atmosphere interaction studies during the past decade. Four issues are addressed in this paper: land data development, land/atmosphere interactions at seasonal-interannual scales, mesoscale studies, and the future prospective. The development of the AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project has produced a valuable analysis of the land surface state and fluxes which have been applied in a number of large-scale African regional studies. In seasonalinterannual West African climate studies, the latest evidence from satellite data analyses and modeling studies confirm that the West African region has a climate which is particularly sensitive to land surface processes and there is a strong coupling between land surface processes and regional climate at intraseasonal/seasonal scales. These studies indicate that proper land surface process representations and land status initialization would substantially improve predictions and enhance the predictability of West African climate.Mesoscale studies have revealed new understanding of how soilmoisture heterogeneity influences the development of convective storms over the course of the diurnal cycle. Finally, several important issues regarding the future prospective are briefly addressed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a key variable in many land surface and climate modeling studies. To date, a number of LAI datasets have been developed based on time series of medium resolution optical remote sensing observations. Global validation exercises show the high value of these datasets, but at the same time they point out shortcomings, particularly in the presence of persistent cloud coverage and dense vegetation. For regional modeling studies, the choice of an ideal LAI input dataset is not straightforward as global validation, and intercomparison studies do not necessarily allow conclusions on data quality at regional scale. This paper provides a comprehensive relative intercomparison of four freely available LAI products for a wide gradient of ecosystems in Africa. The region of investigation, West Africa, comprises typical African sub-humid to arid landscapes. The selected LAI time series are the Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre-VEGETATION (SPOT-VGT)-based Carbon Cycle and Change in Land Observational Products from an Ensemble of Satellites (CYCLOPES) LAI, the SPOTVGT- based Bio-geophysical Parameters (BioPar) LAI product GEOV1, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product MOD15A2, and the Meteosat- SEVIRI-based Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) LAI. The comparative analyses focus on data gap occurrence, on the consistency of temporal LAI profiles, on their ability to adequately reproduce the phenological cycle and on the plausibility of LAI magnitudes for major land cover types in West Africa. A detailed quantitative validation of the LAI datasets, however, was not possible due to insufficient ground LAI measurements in the study region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study utilizes three high-resolution simulations from the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) to examine the late 21st century changes (2080–2099) in the West African Monsoon (WAM) features. A set of three Earth System Models are utilized to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions to the RegCM4 experiments. Our analysis focuses on seasonal mean changes in WAM large-scale dynamical features, along with their connections with the summer monsoon precipitation. In the historical period, the simulation ensemble means mimic reasonably well the intensity and spatial distribution of the WAM rainfall as well as the WAM circulation patterns at different scales. The future projection of the WAM climate exhibits warming over the whole West Africa leading to precipitation reduction over the Sahel region, and a slight increase over some areas of the Guinea Coast. The position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) is shifted southward and the African Easterly Waves (AEWs) activities are reduced, which affect in turn the WAM rainbelt characteristics in terms of position and strength. Overall the changes in simulated AEJ and AEWs contribute substantially to reduce the seasonal summer mean precipitation in West Africa by the late 21st century, with prevailing negative changes in the Savanna-Sahel region. To further explore the robustness of the relationships revealed in this paper, future studies using different high-resolution regional climate models with large ensemble are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]