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Abstract: Accurate predictions of storm surge and surge deviation are essential for industrial activities in coastal areas. Usually numerical hydrodynamic models or empirical methods are used to estimate the storm surge. This paper proposes an alternative back-propagation neural network (BPN) approach to forecast the storm surge and surge deviation. The prediction of storm surge from a previous typhoon is used as a training set to form predictions for the next event. Wind velocity, wind direction, atmospheric pressure and astronomical tide were selected as inputs in the neural network. The observations obtained during three typhoons from four stations in Taiwan were used to illustrate performance of the BPN model. Comparisons with numerical methods indicate that the storm surge and surge deviation can be efficiently predicted using BPN. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: It is essential to forecast the variation of storm surge in coastal areas during the typhoon attacks. Conventional investigations of storm surge often used the method of numerical hydrodynamic models or empirical formula. In this paper, the back-propagation neural network (BPN) is applied to predict the short-term typhoon surge and surge deviation in order to overcome the problem of exclusive and nonlinear relationships. The observations obtained during three typhoons of Taichung harbor in Taiwan are verified by the present model. From the comparison with numerical methods, it can be found that the short-term storm surge and surge deviation can be efficiently predicted 1 to 6h ahead using BPN. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]