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Bayesian rationality is the paradigm of rational behavior in neoclassical economics. An economic agent is deemed rational when she maximizes her subjective expected utility and consistently revises her beliefs according to Bayes's rule. The paper raises the question of how, when and why this characterization of rationality came to be endorsed by mainstream economists. Though no definitive answer is provided, it is argued that the question is of great historiographic importance. The story begins with Abraham Wald's behaviorist approach to statistics and culminates with Leonard J. Savage's elaboration of subjective expected utility theory in his 1954 classic The Foundations of Statistics. The latter's acknowledged fiasco to achieve a reinterpretation of traditional inference techniques along subjectivist and behaviorist lines raises the puzzle of how a failed project in statistics could turn into such a big success in economics. Possible answers call into play the emphasis on consistency requirements in neoclassical theory and the impact of the postwar transformation of U.S. business schools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies industry-level dynamics and demonstrates the ability of a modified neoclassical growth model to capture a range of empirical facts. The paper begins by using U.S. data to document skilled and unskilled labor trends within industry sector classifications as well as industry sector output trends. Using Current Population Survey data from 1968 to 2004, it is shown that the ratio of skilled workers to unskilled workers employed has risen in all industries. The absolute increase in this ratio was larger in the more skilled industries, while the growth rate was larger in the less skilled industries. Furthermore, using national income account data, it is shown that relatively high-skilled industries have accounted for an increasing share of output over time. A version of the neoclassical growth model is then constructed to match these observations. One important feature of this model is a structure that introduces new goods into the economy at each moment of time. The model is able to capture a rich set of labor market movements between sectors and between skill levels as well as changes in the relative output shares across industries, yet preserves many nice features of the neoclassical growth model.( JEL E13, J20, 030) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents methods to analyze convergence in cross-sectional data collected over time using distribution free statistics that are not sensitive to the magnitudes involved. Measures of concordance and discordance are employed in the empirical analysis of real personal income per capita for 48 U.S. States over the period 1929–2002. Although most States are converging with each other, some are converging faster than others. The methods used have the flexibility to focus on specific characteristics such as convergence in absolute differences or convergence in the ratio of rewards. The methods may also be used to consider convergence without switching and additionally be applied to other features such as the percentiles of the distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the ideological continuity underlying recent changes in U.S. policy, arguing that both the "liberal" policies of the 1960's and the "free market" conservatism of the 1980's were based upon the presuppositions of neoclassical economic theory. The author first considers the intellectual assumptions of postwar liberalism, emphasizing the degree to which the dominant paradigm of the period accepted the neoclassical framework. Next the author examines the conservative neoclassical critique of liberal ideas that developed in the 1970's. The economic upheavals of that decade demonstrated the limits of a postwar liberalism that was only ambiguously committed to state intervention. The result was the reassertion of a more consistent market model in economic policy discourse. The author concludes by considering the ideological effects of the dominant neoclassical paradigm today in directing attention away from crucial social problems, particularly those that result from market forces themselves in a rapidly changing global economy.