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Disaster response by philanthropy has faced numerous challenges flagged in the literature, including duplication of efforts, inefficiencies, waste, and inadequate goal achievements. However, there is little literature on how to organise philanthropic acts in the face of disasters. This paper assesses the influence of lean thinking in improving disaster response processes and sustainability. The paper further proposes a framework for applying lean thinking by philanthropic organisations. A mixed research methods strategy was employed with 212 staff surveys in Southern Africa. Twenty‐three in‐depth key informant interviews were also conducted. The results revealed that lean thinking succeeds with philanthropic organisations if a high level of management commitment, teamwork, and adaptability to change the organisation's setup exists. A framework is presented through Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), tailor‐made for philanthropic organisations in Southern Africa. External and internal determinants were found to equally contribute to lean thinking's success in reducing waste and increasing value. Despite being limited to developing economies, this paper extends prior research on the lean application and integrates lean thinking in a philanthropic setting. Findings drawn from diverse countries imply that results may be reasonably generalised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this brief response to Sun et al.’s ( ) comments on our paper, we re‐emphasize that archaeological, chemical and isotopic evidence are all relevant to the discussion about the metal source of the Shang period with highly radiogenic lead isotope ratios. The southern African bronzes have much lower lead contents and quite different lead isotopic signatures than the Shang bronzes. More importantly, there was no metallurgy of any kind in southern Africa before c.200 ce, so southern Africa cannot possibly be the source of Shang bronze, which date to about 1500 to 1000 bce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low‐level jets (LLJs) are well established as critical features of regional climates globally. However, across sub‐Saharan Africa, LLJs have received relatively little attention, in part due to a lack of data. Utilizing high‐resolution reanalysis data, this paper develops the first climatology of a neglected feature of the southern African circulation – the Limpopo LLJ – and investigates its role in delivering water vapor to the continental interior. We demonstrate that the LLJ has a clear diurnal cycle and is a regular feature of the circulation throughout the year, forming on 80.9% of days. The pressure gradient between southern Mozambique and the continental interior acts as a first‐order control on the annual cycle of jet strength, which peaks in October, achieving average maximum windspeeds of 15.8 m.s−1 at the core. Water vapor transport follows the same clear diurnal cycle, with at least 72% occurring over 18:00–08:00, and is closely related to jet strength: On average the strongest jet events advect 1.04 × 1012 kg (1.02 × 1012 kg) more moisture each night than the weakest in October‐December (January‐March). Strong jet events are typically linked to ridging anticyclones along the east coast of South Africa and are associated with increased rainfall in central and southern Botswana and northern South Africa the following day. Key Points: A nocturnal low‐level jet forms on 80.9% of days in the Limpopo BasinThe annual cycle of jet strength is unimodal, peaking in October with average maximum windspeeds of 15.8 m.s−1Water vapor advected through the Limpopo Channel increases by 1.04 × 1012 kg each night during the strongest jet events in early summer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Irrigation & Drainage is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Poaching of elephants in Southern Africa is now dominated by international groups following a model of organized crime. This shift, from poaching conducted by small, local groups; with limited mobility, weapons, and technology, to individuals who organize, finance, equip, and transport well-armed poaching units to previously scouted locations, has made the protection of elephants in Southern Africa much more difficult and dangerous. This paper develops a model of high-tech criminal poaching. A poaching organization makes a decision on the number of 'planned poaching expeditions.' If a poaching unit is intercepted the entire organization is destroyed, but is replaced by a new organization in the next year. The operating life of a poaching organization is a stochastic process, which in turn induces a stochastic evolution in the elephant population. Under plausible conditions, the number of planned poaching expeditions is highly sensitive to the probability of interception by anti-poaching patrols, but is nonresponsive to reductions in the black-market ivory price. Thereby it might be better to focus conservation efforts on increasing the probability of intercepting poaching units rather than trying to control black market ivory prices. A benchmark value of poaching expeditions is identified-above which elephants may slowly decline to extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on Shane Godbolt's commitment to international librarianship and global health and her guiding principles for international working. The authors examine and celebrate how these have been applied in practice, impacting many. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the link between foreign direct investment (FDI), democracy and economic growth on a panel of eight Southern African countries for 1980-2014 using the system generalized method-of-moment (GMM) estimator. We find that FDI has a direct positive effect on economic growth and that strong democratic institutions are a significant driver of economic growth in the sample countries. The impact of FDI on economic growth is dependent on the level of democracy in the host countries. This implies that countries with strong democratic institutions are better able to absorb the positive spillovers from FDI. In policy terms, Southern African countries should sustain the institutional reform policy agenda already in place in order to benefit more from the significant inflows of FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview of some of the significant environmental problems in the Southern African region. The key problems highlighted are global warming and climate variability, loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification-land degradation, waste and littering, population growth, urbanization, pollution, poverty and health hazards. These problems present a challenge to governments and other players within and outside Southern Africa to seek for long-term solutions by addressing the root causes of these problems. The paper notes that although the environmental problems facing the Southern African region are being tackled at national, regional and international levels, there is more that can be done. At the national level, the different agencies and players, both within and outside government need to strengthen coordination and implementation of key interventions in different sectors in both rural and urban areas. At the African regional and international levels, there is a need to address geopolitical forces and issues that contribute to the underdevelopment of the African region. Among the major issues are poor terms of international trade, political instability, poverty, declining economic performance and international debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the feasibility of a monetary union in Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) by looking at evidence of nominal exchange rate and inflation convergence. Using a methodology based on estimating time-varying parameters, the evidence suggests non-convergence. The non-convergence of nominal exchange rate and consumer price inflation suggests that presently the chances of SADC member countries satisfying some form of Maastricht-type criteria is quite low. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern African tropical lows are synoptic‐scale cyclonic vortices that propagate westward across southern Africa in the Austral summer. They strongly influence local rainfall and aggregate in the climatological December, January, and February mean to form the Angola Low. In this study, tropical lows are identified and tracked using an objective feature tracking method. The statistics of tropical low tracks over southern Africa are presented and compared across three reanalysis products. Findings are compared to the literature of tropical low‐pressure areas elsewhere in the world, where it is found that most tracking statistics compare well but that the tendency of tropical lows to become semistationary over Angola is unique to southern Africa. The hypothesis that tropical lows in Angola have a causal relationship with Tropical Temperate Troughs is tested, and a correlation between occurrence frequencies is found at interannual but not daily time scales. Precipitation is attributed to the tropical lows, and it is found that tropical lows are associated with 31% of rainfall across tropical southern Africa, based on gridded precipitation products. The interannual variability of the number of tropical lows that form per year (σ=6 events/year) is linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the tropical easterly jet. The mean latitude of tropical lows is shifted northward during El Niño and southward during La Niña. Much of the interannual precipitation variability maximum in Angola is attributed to rainfall associated with tropical lows. These results provide insights into the southern African response to ENSO and into the mechanisms of rainfall in the southern African tropical edge. Plain Language Summary: Tropical lows are storms that are a bit like very weak tropical cyclones. They occur in summer in tropical regions. This paper tracks individual tropical lows across southern Africa in weather records from the last 39 years. We then look at how they behave, how much they rain, whether they interact with other storms, and how they vary from year to year. About 33 tropical lows are found each year, and they tend to cluster in eastern Angola. We find that 31% of rainfall in the region surrounding Angola and Zambia comes from tropical lows. The number of tropical lows that form in a summer is really important for whether that summer will be unusually dry or wet, particularly along the northern border of Namibia. The number of tropical lows that form in each year is related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and also to the winds high up in the atmosphere. In the El Niño phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle, which usually causes drought in southern Africa, tropical lows form less frequently and further north. In the La Niña phase, which is usually wet in southern Africa, tropical lows form more frequently and further south. Key Points: Vorticity tracking and rainfall attribution algorithms are applied to reanalysis tropical lows in southern AfricaTropical lows track north (south) in El Niño (La Niña); this behavior dominates the ENSO rainfall signal west of 30°EOn a synoptic time scale tropical temperate troughs and Angola tropical lows have statistically independent timing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper refers to the establishment of the Great Limpopo on the South Africa-Mozambique-Zimbabwe border and the Kgalagadi on the South Africa-Botswana border to illuminate the involvement of actors under conditions that cannot more appropriately be captured by analyses that place emphasis on particular scales. It reaffirms the view that the global-local infusion involves actors at multiple levels. To that end, the paper uses the debate about global-local connections as an interpretative framework for understanding various actors involved in the creation of transfrontier parks in southern Africa. Drawing from case study material in the Great Limpopo and Kgalagadi Transfrontier Parks, the paper shows that changing conservation philosophies, the socio-political environment, economic imperatives and conditions in and around national parks combined to make the region favourable to the new nature conservation schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although southern African economies appear to have escaped the initial phase of the East Asian economic crisis relatively unscathed, the second stage of the contagion was somewhat less benevolent in its influence on southern African economies. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of the Asian contagion on southern African economies within a general equilibrium framework. We use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model to examine the implications of the Asian crisis for southern African economies. Bien que les économies des pays du sud de l’Afrique semblent avoir échappées à la première phase de la crise économique de L’Asie de l’est, l’effet de la deuxième phase a été plus néfaste envers les économies des pays sud africains. Cet article cherche à enquÁter sur l’impact qu’a eu la contagion asiatique sur les économies des pays sud africains dans un cadre d’équilibre général. Nous utilisons le modèle du GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) afin d’interpréter les implications de la crise asiatique sur l’économie des pays sud africains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the role of inflation rates in determining economic growth in 15 sub-Saharan African countries, which are all members of the Southern African Development Community, between 1980 and 2009. The results, based on panel time-series data and analysis (we use the fixed effects and fixed effects with instrumental variables estimators to account for heterogeneity and endogeneity in thin panels), suggest that inflation has had a detrimental effect to growth in the community. We highlight that inflation has offset the Mundell- Tobin effect and consequently reduced the much needed economic activity in the community, and also the importance of an institutional framework conducive to a stable macroeconomic environment as a precondition for development and prosperity in the community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, anxieties have been expressed that the impacts of southern Africa's AIDS pandemic on young people today will damage their future livelihood prospects. Geographers have been remarkably reluctant to explore young people's future livelihoods, inspired by a concern to view young people as human beings, worthy of study in their own right rather than mere human becomings, of interest only as 'adults in the making'. Yet there is growing acknowledgement that young people, like older people, are always both 'being and becoming'. The connections between current and future lives merit much greater attention, both because experiences and actions in childhood and youth undoubtedly shape the futures of individuals and wider society, but also because young people's thoughts and actions are so often geared to the future, and this future orientation shapes their present worlds. This paper reports on research that set out to explore links between the impacts of AIDS and young people's livelihood prospects. Intensive case study research was undertaken, combining participatory methods and life history interviews with young people aged 10-24 in two villages, one in southern Malawi and the other in the mountains of Lesotho. By theorising a temporal dimension to de Haan and Zoomers' concept of livelihood trajectories, the paper focuses on the ways in which young people respond to both the immediate sustenance requirements of themselves and their households and their need to accrue assets for future livelihoods. Some young people's trajectories appear to be disturbed by the influence of AIDS, but with no systematic patterns. Beyond addressing empirical questions concerning the impacts of AIDS, the paper contributes to our understanding of how livelihoods are produced and to the conceptualisation of youth transitions as produced through the iteration of present and future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research efforts using system dynamics to understand and evaluate societal and policy-related problems in Southern Africa are becoming essential. This paper undertook a systematic review to examine the extent of utilization of system dynamics in Southern Africa between 2003 and 2014. The results showed that system dynamics has been used, or referred to, in the academic literature pertaining to the themes of environment, public policy and resources. Nevertheless, focuses remain limited in its application across various industries, particularly relating to stakeholder engagement and strategy. However, some analysis of the non-academic literature suggests that commercial practice of system dynamics has a different trend, where it is mainly used for strategic and tactical projects, mostly for industry clients. Thus, the current research outputs do not necessarily reflect the industry needs. This review is then useful to facilitate further discussions on practical applications of system dynamics through the South Africa System Dynamics Chapter. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three countries in southern Africa have the highest adult HIV prevalence in the world: Swaziland (25.9 per cent), Botswana (24.8 per cent), and Lesotho (23.6 per cent). Fiscal policy is crucial for addressing this HIV/AIDS crisis. Utilizing a calibrated model, this paper investigates the impact of fiscal policy on reducing the HIV/AIDS incidence rates in these countries. In particular, we studied the welfare impact of different taxation and debt paths in these countries in reducing the HIV/AIDS prevalence rates. This is particularly important given the current concerns about dwindling foreign aid (especially the global AIDS fund), and the fiscal deterioration and sustainability in these countries. Our results show that, acting optimally has not only a positive societal welfare effect but also positive fiscal effects. For example, it will alleviate the debt burden by 5 per cent, 1 per cent and 13 per cent of the GDP, respectively for Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland by the year 2020. Thus, at a time of fiscal crisis in developed countries and dwindling international HIV/AIDS resources, the future of effective and efficient HIV/AIDS intervention in Africa is clearly domestic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a quantitative assessment of the welfare effects arising from the Common Monetary Area ( CMA) and an array of broader groupings among Southern African Development Community ( SADC) countries. Model simulations suggest that ( i) participating in the CMA benefits all members; ( ii) joining the CMA individually is beneficial for all SADC members except Angola, Mauritius and Tanzania; ( iii) creating a symmetric CMA-wide monetary union with a regional central bank carries some costs in terms of foregone anti-inflationary credibility; and ( iv) SADC-wide symmetric monetary union continues to be beneficial for all except Mauritius, although the gains for existing CMA members are likely to be limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports the results of an economic experiment which was designed to test the effect of racial identity on generosity in a non-strategic setting. A sample of undergraduate university students was recruited to participate in a dictator game, where surnames of individuals were revealed to convey information about racial identity. Results indicate that compared to a set of control experiments where participant identity was kept anonymous, revealing racial identity has a significant and positive impact on the size of the offers made. However, while Black participants did not vary their offers based on the racial identity of their partners, White participants were more generous towards White partners than Black partners, exhibiting insider favouritism in their offers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents lessons from applying an innovative action research approach for linking smallholder farmers to markets, in eastern and southern Africa. The Enabling Rural Innovation (ERI) approach aims to strengthen social organization and entrepreneurial capacity in rural communities. It focuses on fostering community-based capacity for the inclusion of rural women and the poor in analyzing and accessing market opportunities. Using case studies from Malawi and Uganda the paper assesses the outcomes of ERI on rural communities with a focus on human capital, gender issues and investment in natural resource management. Results show that households are benefiting significantly from linkages to markets in terms of increasing household incomes, and accumulating assets. Skills in analyzing markets and in negotiating with traders have increased among smallholder farmers. The integration of gender in the approach has led to changes in gender decision making patterns at household and community level towards a more shared decision-making process. The results however show a difference in skills between men and women, with women showing lower levels of skills acquisition. Farmer participatory research has increased investments in improved technologies such as fertilizer applications for soil fertility management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study presented in this article used a combination of key informant interviews and a review and synthesis of existing country level literature to identify the major sources of land tenure insecurity in six Southern African countries: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia. Findings reveal that the main causes of land tenure insecurity experienced in Southern Africa include lack of land rights of minority groups, unclear or overlapping land rights, overcrowding, land alienation into leasehold, insecurity of farm workers and farm labour tenants, inappropriate and exploitative administrative practices, land encroachment and illegal settlers and limited women's land rights. The article presents a summary of land tenure security related initiatives that the study countries have or are in the process of adopting. Analysis of these initiatives shows that tenure reforms have focused on changing the law and rules but little has been done to translate new laws into implementable programs; capacity building; prioritization of resources to support tenure reform; provision of complementary policies and incentives; addressing HIV/AIDS-land tenure related problems; and monitoring and evaluation. The paper contends that these policy issues should be addressed in order to ensure realization of land tenure security for all. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overlaps in membership of monetary integration initiatives in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region is a major stumbling block to deeper integration. For example, a strict implementation of the East African Community (EAC) customs union concluded in 2004 would violate existing Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) free trade agreements. To resolve this problem the paper applies cluster analysis to assign countries to the most suitable monetary union initiative based on real and nominal convergence criteria. The results indicate that the ESA region is not converged enough for an ESA-wide monetary union. Instead two fairly distinct clusters, one in the southern cone around South Africa and the other around the EAC, are identified. This implies that a two-track monetary integration route is more appropriate for the region. The EAC is identified as a subgroup within COMESA, suggesting Tanzania should cede SADC membership for COMESA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper conducts a review of various issues of women's poverty and participation in informal sector trade in Eastern and Southern Africa. Poverty is endemic in the region, where an estimated half of the population lives on less than one dollar per day. This situation is more pronounced for women and has added significance in the subregion where nearly half of the households are headed by women. Women's deprivation is manifold and ranges across the economic, social and political arenas. Women are heavily involved in the informal sector and cross-border trade. These activities are generally low-paying, tedious and erratic. They also tend to be survivalist in nature and unsophisticated, involving the sale of cheap perishable commodities. These have now expanded to involve trade in biological and forest resources in a region that is being devastated by HIV-AIDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between energy consumption, human capital investment and economic growth in South Africa for the period 1960-2015 within the vector error correction model ( VECM) framework. It was revealed that there is cointegration among the variables. The causality test result reveals that there exists a long-run bi-directional relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. While on the other hand, a long-run unidirectional causal relationship was discovered running from economic growth and energy consumption to social and economic infrastructure investment. This justifies the government's massive investment in the energy sector which is aimed at meeting the increasing energy demand. However, the lack of feedback from social infrastructural investment may imply that the focus social infrastructure investment is not adequate to granger cause growth or due to high inequality and unemployment in the country which will require more investment attention for it to significantly affect growth. The government, therefore, should give priority to the provision of both social and economic infrastructure investment and implementation of policies that are aimed at human capital development through public empowerment so that they can support the economy instead of depending on the government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to estimate the production, price, welfare and employment effects of some of the changes in the agricultural marketing system on the Western Cape Province of South Africa, utilizing a regional linear programming model of the agricultural sector of the region. The model includes supply, demand and production risk, and simulates the present agricultural production structure well. Market and trade liberalization have major impacts on the structure of Western Cape agriculture, particularly the grain and livestock sub-sectors, with only marginal and mostly insignificant effects on horticultural products. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction to the journal is presented in which the editor discusses land degradation in Southern Africa.

Southern Africa has a long history of non-native fish introductions for the enhancement of recreational and commercial fisheries, due to a perceived lack of suitable native species. This has resulted in some important inland fisheries being based on non-native fishes. Regionally, these introductions are predominantly not benign, and non-native fishes are considered one of the main threats to aquatic biodiversity because they affect native biota through predation, competition, habitat alteration, disease transfer and hybridization. To achieve national policy objectives of economic development, food security and poverty eradication, countries are increasingly looking towards inland fisheries as vehicles for development. As a result, conflicts have developed between economic and conservation objectives. In South Africa, as is the case for other invasive biota, the control and management of non-native fishes is included in the National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act. Implementation measures include import and movement controls and, more recently, non-native fish eradication in conservation priority areas. Management actions are, however, complicated because many non-native fishes are important components in recreational and subsistence fisheries that contribute towards regional economies and food security. In other southern African countries, little attention has focussed on issues and management of non-native fishes, and this is cause for concern. This paper provides an overview of introductions, impacts and fisheries in southern Africa with emphasis on existing and evolving legislation, conflicts, implementation strategies and the sometimes innovative approaches that have been used to prioritize conservation areas and manage non-native fishes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We present elements of a new conceptual framework for the unification of biogeography and movement ecology, and demonstrate the value of the new framework using a case study of two species of Afrotropical duck (Anatidae) across a latitudinal gradient. Location Southern Africa. Methods The first part of the paper rests on logic and philosophy. For the second (case study) section, we used data from up to 3 years of satellite telemetry for 26 individuals of two species of Afrotropical duck, the Egyptian goose ( Alopochen aegyptiaca) and red-billed teal ( Anas erythrorhyncha), from three different populations with moulting sites spread across 17 degrees of latitude. We compared quantitative measures of movement patterns using principal components analysis and boxplots. Results We argue that unpacking the concept of dispersal into the fundamental elements of movement (internal drivers, external drivers, navigation capacity, and motion capacity) provides a more solid basis for contrasting competing hypotheses in biogeographical studies. We found, surprisingly, that red-billed teal, a 'highly nomadic' species, moved with a relatively high degree of consistency at each of our three study latitudes, while Egyptian geese, a 'resident' species, showed latitude-dependent variation in their movements. However, much of the latitude-related variation for Egyptian geese was driven by their annual moult migrations, rather than directly by fluctuations in resource availability. Internal factors appear to dominate movements and probably determine the species ranges of both of our study species. Main conclusions The integration of biogeography and movement ecology, through a more sophisticated view of mechanisms formerly lumped together under 'dispersal', offers a fertile area for further research. The biogeography of Afrotropical ducks appears to be strongly influenced by internal factors. Biogeographical patterns in this taxon may thus be best understood (and modelled) as a long-term response to environmental stochasticity, rather than as a deliberate selection of optimal habitat. Latitudinal comparisons emerge as a valuable way of gaining insights into the drivers of movement for widespread species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Conservation managers are increasingly looking for modelled projections of species distributions to inform management strategies; however, the coarse resolution of available data usually compromises their helpfulness. The aim of this paper is to delineate and test different approaches for converting coarse-grain occurrence data into high-resolution predictions, and to clarify the conceptual circumstances affecting the accuracy of downscaled models. Location We used environmental data from a real landscape, southern Africa, and simulated species distributions within this landscape. Methods We built 10 virtual species at a resolution of 5 arcmin, and for each species we simulated atlas range maps at four decreasing resolutions (15, 30, 60, 120 arcmin). We tested the ability of three downscaling strategies to produce high-resolution predictions using two modelling techniques: generalized linear models and generalized boosted models. We calibrated reference models with high-resolution data and we compared the relative reduction of predictive performance in the downscaled models by using a null model approach. We also estimated the applicability of downscaling procedures to different situations by using distribution data for Mediterranean reptiles. Results All reference models achieved high performance measures. For all strategies, we observed a reduction of predictive performance proportional to the degree of downscaling. The differences in evaluation indices between reference models and downscaled projections obtained from atlases at 15 and 30 arcmin were never statistically significant. The accuracy of projections scaled down from 60 arcmin largely depended on the combination of approach and algorithm adopted. Projections scaled down from 120 arcmin gave misleading results in all cases. Main conclusions Moderate levels of downscaling allow for reasonably accurate results, regardless of the technique used. The most general effect of scaling down coarse-grain data is the reduction of model specificity. The models can successfully delineate a species' environmental association up until a 12-fold downscaling, although with an increasing approximation that causes the overestimation of true distributions. We suggest appropriate procedures to mitigate the commission error introduced by downscaling at intermediate levels (approximately 12-fold). Reductions of grain size > 12-fold are discouraged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thunderstorms, due to their high frequency of occurrence over southern Africa and their dominant contribution to summer rainfall, are the primary focus of very short range forecasting and nowcasting efforts in South Africa. Most southern African countries are heavily reliant on satellite technology due to the limited number of surface and upper-air observations and the limited availability of numerical model output. In developing tools for the first 12 forecast hours, the South African Weather Service has to address both national and regional needs. The blending of techniques in an optimal manner is essential in achieving this. In this paper a description is given of how the Global Instability Index product derived from the European Meteosat Second Generation Satellite was adapted to fit to South African circumstances using a different numerical model as background information, creating the Regional Instability Indices (RII). The focus of the study is the development of a new convection indicator, called the Combined Instability Index (CII), which calculates the probability of convection based on satellite derived instability indices and moisture as well as orographic lift early in the morning when the sky is as cloud free as possible. The CII is an objective way for operational forecasters to calculate the probability for convection later in the day based on satellite and model data. Early morning CII values were evaluated statistically against the occurrence of lightning as well as against satellite derived precipitation later in the same day. It is shown that the CII not only performs well, but also outperforms the individual RII. The CII will be beneficial to operational forecasters to focus their attention on the area which is most favourable for the development of convection later in the day. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on a study with rural young people (aged 10-24 years) in Malawi and Lesotho, focusing on their opportunities to learn skills and access capital and assets to engage in income-generating activities (IGAs). Participatory group exercises and individual interviews provide many examples of how young people learn skills and start small businesses, as well as an insight into their strategic thinking about engaging in these livelihood options. Various factors, including the effects of AIDS, are shown to affect young people's prospects of succeeding in their ventures. Young people are very keen on starting IGAs, and are supported by adult members of their communities in asking for interventions to help them. We argue that expanded vocational and business training, focusing on locally appropriate types and scale of businesses, coupled with help to raise start-up capital has the potential to improve the chances of young people who are poor and/or AIDS-affected securing sustainable rural livelihoods in their futures. Since AIDS is intertwined with many other issues affecting young people's livelihoods, it is problematic to single out and target only AIDS-affected young people with interventions on skills building and IGAs. Policymakers' attitudes to vocational skills training and support for IGAs in Malawi and Lesotho are also explored, and policy recommendations made to support vulnerable rural young people in their attempts to build sustainable livelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity inventories are not yet complete, with potentially thousands of species unknown to science. This paper aims to (1) elucidate the historical discovery rate of endemic southern African marine fishes and (2) to estimate the number of potentially undescribed endemic marine fishes in the region using a statistical model and which factors (e.g. size/depth) contribute to unknown diversity. Thirdly, all species described globally for eight families (Blennidae, Clinidae, Gobiidae, Lutjanidae, Rajidae, Sciaenidae, Scyliorhinidae, Sparidae) were analysed to elucidate unknown diversity in these groups. The oceans of southern Africa, including Namibia, South Africa and Mozambique, encompassing sections of the south-eastern Atlantic Ocean and the western Indian Ocean. Literature surveys from a number of sources were carried out to compile lists of species descriptions from 1758 onwards. Species-accumulation curves were plotted for all endemic species, as well as for different components of size and depth. A maximum likelihood model was used to estimate the number of undescribed endemic marine fishes in southern Africa, as well as for all other categories, including global families. Fish discovery rates in southern Africa have varied with time. Estimates suggest that at least 25% of the total endemic fish fauna remain unknown and that size is the greatest predictor of whether a fish has been described. Smaller-sized fishes and those inhabiting shallow areas are most likely to be undersampled. It is likely that most undescribed fishes inhabit the subtropical/tropical waters of the east coast. At the current rate of fish description, it will take at least 50 years to describe the total endemic fish fauna. However, estimates of unknown species are probably higher because of cryptic species within currently recognized taxa. Climate change may also contribute to range expansions of marine species, further complicating the status of endemicity in southern African marine fishes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last decade and particularly since the publication of the Millennium Development Goals, social pensions have captured the interest of those concerned with the well-being of older people across that large part of the world where formal, contributions-financed, old-age benefit systems cover only a minority of the population. International organizations have turned their attention to such schemes and some see them as having a valuable role to play. However, information about what they are and how they work, and about their efficacy in meeting the objectives set for them, is still limited. Learning has been taking place not only in the international organizations but also in the region where they are most prominent – southern Africa. Such learning should be encouraged and the International Social Security Association has a part to play in this learning process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the influence of climate variability and change on the environment was studied over southern Africa using ground-based and remotely sensed data. A time series analysis of rainfall and temperature anomalies indicated that there was a high rainfall and temperature variability in the region. The influence of global teleconnections on rainfall patterns over southern Africa showed that in some areas there was a spatial variation in their strength, increasing from west to east. Maps of NDVI, from 1982 to 2004, showed that changes in vegetation cover were more apparent during the dry season than during the wet season. The study also revealed that climate variability and change are linked to decreasing rainfall and hence, decreasing regional water resources and biodiversity and increasing environmental degradation. With the regional population expected increase, this depletion of resources poses the greatest regional environmental challenge to humankind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the 14 members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) having set the objective of adopting a common currency for the year 2018, an expanding empirical literature has emerged evaluating the benefits and costs of a common-currency area in Southern Africa. This paper reviews that literature, focusing on two categories of studies: (1) those that assume that a country's characteristics are invariant to the adoption of a common currency and (2) those that assume that a monetary union alters an economy's structure, resulting in trade creation and credibility gains. The literature reviewed suggests that a relatively small group of countries, typically including South Africa, satisfies the criteria necessary for monetary unification. The literature also suggests that, in a monetary union comprising all SADC countries and a regional central bank that sets monetary policy to reflect the average economic conditions (e.g. fiscal balances) in the region, the potential losses (i.e. higher inflation) from giving up an existing credible national central bank, a relevant consideration for South Africa, could outweigh any potential benefits of trade creation resulting from a common currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Angola is the only southern African country for which a plant inventory has not been produced to date. The lack of a country-level floristic checklist has seriously hampered the estimation of levels of diversity and endemism, and other conservation-driven initiatives. This deficiency was addressed in a collaborative initiative recently concluded among over 30 international project participants. This paper presents the results of the project that aimed, among other things, to survey the Angolan flora as part of producing a floristic checklist. The study revealed that Angola has a total number of 6,735 indigenous species, and a total vascular flora of 7,296 taxa (including naturalised taxa), of which 1,069 taxa (997 species and 72 infraspecific taxa) are endemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The developing nations of southern Africa have previously been identified as vulnerable to the vagaries of global change, particularly in terms of future climate change. This paper explores recent climate change scenarios for the region in terms of some representative sectors of the environment-society interface, namely biodiversity, agriculture and related land uses, water resources and health issues. It is concluded that the impacts of predicted climate changes over the next century are likely to be very marked indeed. Biome distribution, agriculture, rangelands and water resources are highlighted as being negatively impacted in ways that will increase the vulnerability of the great majority of the region's population to natural hazards. The potential impact of these changes on the prolific biodiversity of southern Africa is clear. Holistic policy responses, incorporating both environmental and human development concerns, are required in the near future if a crisis is to be averted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern Africa harbors several population groups representing a diversity of gene pool origins. This provides a unique opportunity to study genetic disease predisposition in these populations against a common environmental background. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) association studies of these populations could improve knowledge on inter-population variation and HLA-related disease susceptibility. The aim of this paper is to review HLA class II disease associations reported for southern African population groups, compare them with findings in other populations and identify those unique to southern Africa. A number of HLA class II disease associations appear to be unique to southern African populations. These include DRB1*14011 association with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus susceptibility in the Xhosa and DRB1*10 and DQB1*0302 with rheumatoid arthritis susceptibility in the South African (SA) Indian and SA Coloreds, respectively. A noteworthy similarity in class II disease association was observed among southern African Caucasoid and their European parental populations. Unique HLA class II disease associations observed in southern Africa are consistent with the notion that unique environmental and natural selective factors have resulted in certain ethnic-specific HLA class II disease associations, while common HLA class II disease associations found across different populations support the notion that common diseases are caused by common, ancient alleles present in indigenous African populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper uses Zimbabwe as a case study to depict the situation in southern Africa with respect to work accident insurance and prevention, provided by workers' compensation schemes which are among the earliest forms of social security to be introduced in the region. There has been an unfortunate tendency to concentrate on compensation issues at the expense of prevention initiatives. Zimbabwe, however, has attempted to integrate the two, notwithstanding the fact that the coverage of the scheme is narrow and the benefits inadequate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil degradation assessments for mixed farming systems of the Molopo Basin (North West Province, South Africa and Southern District, Botswana) are provided from farmer–based research, designed to quantify nutrient fluxes across the farming system and to analyze the social, economic, political and environmental factors affecting nutrient management practices. This paper discusses the practical difficulties of how to use participatory farmer–led studies to assess soil degradation extent and its causes, and of then disseminating this information to farming communities and policymakers. Nutrient balance studies show that land degradation is evident on arable fields as soil nutrient depletion (the main threat to poorer manure–reliant farmers) and soil acidification (the main threat to wealthier farmers who have become dependent on inorganic fertilizer additions). Integrated nutrient management strategies involving both compound fertilizer additions and regular manure inputs can mitigate most soil degradation even on the sandy infertile Kalahari soils, but remain infrequently practised. The need to retain nutrient flows through the livestock sector from rangeland to arable land is thus vital to environmental sustainability and offers an applicable entry point for agricultural development initiatives and support. Factors identified as threatening the flow of nutrients from rangelands to arable lands include policy settings in terms of the different support programmes offered to communal farmers, village–level extension advice, household poverty levels and labour constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism joint ventures between communities and private investors are an emerging trend in southern Africa. In each country they take different forms. This paper reviews experience in Namibia, within the wider regional context, in order to identify some key principles and challenges. Several lessons can be learnt from the eight Namibian negotiations, and three operating ventures concerning the long process of establishing joint ventures, and about the positive and negative impacts it has for both parties, which cover a range of commercial and livelihood concerns. The analysis suggests several critical factors influence joint-venture success including: committed individuals, company philosophy, facilitation, time and trust, local institutions, national policy context and tourism market trends. Regional comparison indicates that critical factors need to be present in some, but widely varying, form. Joint ventures should become easier to develop as lessons are shared. Although they will remain a niche market, owing to high transaction costs, further policy and practical support can help develop this promising potential. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores common factors associated with not meeting minimum dietary diversity (MDD) among 27,072 children aged 6–23 months in Eastern and Southern Africa using data from nine Demographic and Health Surveys from 2013 to 2016. MDD was defined as consumption of more than or equals to five of eight food groups including breast milk in the past 24 h. Equity gaps were calculated as the difference in MDD prevalence between the top and bottom wealth quintiles. Logistic regression was conducted to identify common factors for not meeting MDD at the household, maternal and child levels across two or more countries to inform regional policies to improve children's diets. Kenya had the highest MDD wealth equity gap (40.4 pts), and South Africa had the smallest (14.4 pts). Equity gaps for flesh foods or eggs (up to 39.8 pp) were larger than for grain or legumes (up to 20 pp). Common risk factors for not reaching MDD included younger child age (6–11 months) (n = 9 countries), no formal maternal occupation (n = 6), not receiving vitamin‐A supplementation (n = 3), younger maternal age (n = 3), lower maternal education (n = 3), no media (n = 3) or newspaper (n = 3) exposure, lower household wealth quintile (n = 3), use of nonefficient cooking fuel (n = 2), longer time to get to the water source (n = 2), not listening to the radio (n = 2) and higher birth order (n = 2). Priorities for improving MDD in the region include introducing diverse foods at a young age from 6 months with early nutrition counselling, promoting higher maternal education, increasing food purchasing power and ensuring the support of younger mothers. Key messages: Diets of children in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) lack diversity.A number of common risk factors predict dietary diversity across countries.Risk factors for low dietary diversity include wealth, education and media access.Wide equity gaps were apparent for most food groups in ESA.Interventions addressing affordability and access to diverse diets are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the economies of South Africa and its neighbours (Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland and Zimbabwe) are tightly integrated with each other. The multiple interconnections suggest that South Africa's GDP growth rate should affect positively its neighbours'. However, our review of the available econometric evidence and our panel growth regressions suggest that there is no strong evidence of real spillovers in the region after 1994, once global shocks are controlled for. More generally, we find no evidence of real spillovers from South Africa to the rest of the continent post-1994. We investigate the possible reasons for this lack of spillovers. Most importantly, the economies of South Africa and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa might have decoupled in the mid-1990s. That is when international sanctions on South Africa ended and the country re-integrated with the global economy, while growth in the rest of the continent accelerated due to a combination of domestic and external factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to provide evidence indicating that the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle is becoming less of a puzzle. It present the results of Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, non-linear tests of non-stationarity and Bayesian unit root tests, applied to 10 Southern African Development Community countries. The Bayesian tests were found to be biased in favour of a trend stationary model in all cases. It is argued that non-linear approaches to exchange rate adjustments are likely to provide a firmer basis for inference and stronger support for the PPP in the long-term. This is more so at 1 and 5% levels of significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses morphological and syntactic aspects of relative clauses in two related Southern Bantu language groups. In Sotho-Tswana, object relative clauses are formed by means of clause-initial relative complementisers which agree with the head noun. In contrast, object relatives in the Nguni languages are formed by means of relative concords which are attached to the relative clause predicate and express agreement with the subject. I suggest that the Nguni relative concords are the result of a grammaticalisation process in which early Nguni relative complementisers first turned into clitics and then into relative concords. On the basis of a detailed analysis of this process I further argue that the syntactic difference between Sotho-Tswana and Nguni relative clauses is correlated with a morphological difference between nouns in these languages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measurements of tree canopy architecture were made at six savanna sites on deep, sandy soils, along a gradient of increasing aridity. There was substantial variation in the leaf area estimated within each site, using the same sample frame, but different measurement techniques. The trends in canopy properties in relation to the aridity gradient were consistent, regardless of the technique used for estimating the properties. The effective plant area index for the tree canopy (the sum of the stem area index and the leaf area index (LAI)) declined from around 2 to around 0.8 m2 m−2 over a gradient of mean annual rainfall from 1000 to 350 mm. Stems contributed 2–5% of the tree canopy plant area index. Since the tree canopy cover decreased from 50% to 20% over this aridity range, the leaf area index within the area covered by tree canopies remained fairly constant at 3–4 m2 m−2. Tree leaves tended from a horizontal orientation to a more random orientation as the aridity increased. On the same gradient, the leaf minor axis dimension decreased from around 30 mm to around 3 mm, and the mean specific leaf area decreased from 14 to 5 m2 kgha−1. There was good agreement between LAI observed in the field using a line ceptometer and the LAI inferred by the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite platform, 2 months later in the same season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the major options for regional integration in Southern Africa. Implication for trade creation and trade diversion; Discussion on Free Trade Area, CU and extreme form of Open Regionalism; Effect of different forms of regional integration on custom revenue; Dynamic consequences of the different forms of regional integration.

Societal Impact Statement: The sustainable management of the southern African woodlands is closely linked to the livelihoods of over 150 M people. Findings from the Socio‐Ecological Observatory for the Southern African Woodlands (SEOSAW) will underpin the sustainability of two of the largest industries on the continent: woodfuels and timber. SEOSAW will also improve our understanding of how human use shapes the biogeography and functioning of these ecosystems. Summary: Here we describe a new network of researchers and long‐term, in situ, measurements that will characterize the changing socio‐ecology of the woodlands of southern Africa. These woodlands encompass the largest savanna in the world, but are chronically understudied, with few long‐term measurements.A network of permanent sample plots (PSPs) is required to: (a) address management issues, particularly related to sustainable harvesting for energy and timber; (b) understand how the woodlands are responding to a range of global and local drivers, such as climate change, CO2 fertilization, and harvesting; and (c) answer basic questions about biogeography, ecosystem function, and the role humans play in shaping the ecology of the region.We draw on other successful networks of PSPs and adapt their methods to the specific challenges of working in southern African woodlands. In particular we suggest divergences from established forest monitoring protocols that are needed to (a) adapt to a high level of ecosystem structural diversity (from open savanna to dry forest); (b) quantify the chronic disturbances by people, fire, and herbivores; (c) quantify the diversity and function of the understory of grasses, forbs, and shrubs; (d) understand the life histories of resprouting trees; and (e) conduct work in highly utilized, human‐dominated landscapes.We conclude by discussing how the SEOSAW network will integrate with remote sensing and modeling approaches. Throughout, we highlight the challenges inherent to integrating work by forest and savanna ecologists, and the wide range of skills needed to fully understand the socio‐ecology of the southern African woodlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the trends in international migration in Eastern and Southern Africa. Typology of international migration; International migration issues facing the two regions; State of human development in the areas; Strategies for reshaping international migration in the areas.

Eastern and southern Africa has been a key laboratory for community‐based approaches to conservation for over three decades. During the 1990s, field‐level initiatives and national policy reforms across the region put it at the forefront of global experiments with community‐based conservation. Community‐based conservation, in theory and practice, is closely tied to institutional reforms that devolve rights over wildlife and natural resources to local communities. As such, these efforts have frequently encountered political‐economic and institutional barriers that limited their impact. This contributed to a rising sense of rollback and recentralization of community conservation approaches during the 2000s. Since then, community‐based conservation has expanded its scope considerably in some countries, notably Kenya and Namibia, primarily as a result of relatively supportive legal and policy provisions coupled with sustained government, civil society, and private sector support. At a wider scale, sufficient devolution of rights over wildlife and natural resources has been a chronic constraint, but community‐based initiatives have still managed to persist, adapt, and deliver some evidence of positive ecological and social impacts in Zambia, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Three key overarching trends across the region are (a) the significant growth and expansion of community‐based conservation where key institutional enabling conditions exist; (b) pervasive institutional limitations on community rights over wildlife and other valuable natural resources, which continue to constrain and undermine community‐based approaches; and (c) local entrepreneurship and resilience that continues to create new opportunities for community‐based approaches, even under adverse conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I draw on my findings and those of historical and recent Khoisan ethnography to attempt to explain how these southern African ‘Khoi’ and San peoples relate to wind and how the environmental phenomenon has informed their epistemology and ontology. I begin by fleshing out the knowledge and experience of wind among these past and recent hunter-gatherers and, pointing to continuity in wind relationships and the ideas that stem from them, I go on to demonstrate how wind weaves into Khoisan understandings of the body and illness. Despite extensive interest in Bushman healing, anthropologists have overwhelmingly concentrated on the ‘trance’ healing dance. My findings suggest this partiality has obscured the wider healing context in which the dance operates. Exploring the wider context, including massage, ‘medicinal cuts’, and witchcraft, reveals that the ‘potency’ conceived as central to the healing dance is, in certain contexts, equivalent to overlapping ideas of wind, arrows, and smell. Examination of the ethnography reveals that a number of the associations I make between wind and potency have been partially recognized in specific Khoisan contexts but, because comparative studies of Khoisan are difficult and unpopular, these similarities have gone largely unnoticed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]