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A stochastic framework for coordination of macroeconomic policies is introduced in this paper. It is suggested that: (i) measures of policy accountability should allow for the climate of uncertainty that surrounds policy decisions, and (ii) most models of aggregate economic activity impose arbitrary specifications of uncertainty that do not appear to be empirically justifiable. Ambiguities in interpreting the Humphrey-Hawkins reports of policy authorities are sketched in section II; a proposal for maximizing the ex ante prospects of policy objectives is illustrated in section III; finally, nonstationary allocations of uncertainty are discussed in sections IV and V. This paper provides a brief survey of ongoing work by members of the Federal Reserve Board staff on the role of uncertainty in policy forecasts. It suggests that policy discussion could be improved by more explicit consideration of the allocation of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments on a paper published within the issue, "Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown," by Peter Clark. The author also discusses results from his own research in "Accounting for United States Economic Growth, 1929-1969," and applies it to Clark's paper. It is suggested that an abrupt rise in energy prices may have affected growth rates during the mid-1970s. The author also looks at a similar analysis made by John Kendrick, who focuses on the U.S. postwar period of 1948-1966.

This paper provides an alternative approach to penalized regression for model selection in the context of high‐dimensional linear regressions where the number of covariates is large, often much larger than the number of available observations. We consider the statistical significance of individual covariates one at a time, while taking full account of the multiple testing nature of the inferential problem involved. We refer to the proposed method as One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) procedure, and use ideas from the multiple testing literature to control the probability of selecting the approximating model, the false positive rate, and the false discovery rate. OCMT is easy to interpret, relates to classical statistical analysis, is valid under general assumptions, is faster to compute, and performs well in small samples. The usefulness of OCMT is also illustrated by an empirical application to forecasting U.S. output growth and inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments on three papers within the issue: "Long-Term Effects of Government Deficits on the U.S. Output Potential," by George von Furstenburg, "Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown," by Peter Clark, and "U.S. Productivity Growth Recession: History and Prospects for the Future," by Michael McCarthy. The author discusses each article and criticizes their shortcomings. He looks at von Furstenburg's use of the Phelps-Shell model of dynamic economic growth and notes the usefulness of neoclassical growth theory. The author feels that his discussion on the effects of government deficits on output growth or productivity represent a fruitful economic analysis innovation.

Estimating the contribution of enslaved workers to output and growth in the United States during the first half of the nineteenth century is a crucial building block to better understand the contours of nineteenth‐century US economic history, and more generally, the connection between slavery and capitalism. Existing estimates only present a partial picture and are potentially problematic. In this paper, we use data on enslaved person valuations to calculate the contribution made by enslaved workers to regional and national gross national product (GNP) in 1839 and 1859 and to the growth in per capita output in the 20 years before the Civil War. We find that in the United States, enslaved workers were responsible for somewhere between 12.49 per cent and 18.0 per cent of the increase in output per capita between 1839 and 1859. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As science becomes increasingly cross‐disciplinary and scientific models become increasingly cross‐coupled, standardized practices of model evaluation are more important than ever. For normally distributed data, mean squared error (MSE) is ideal as an objective measure of model performance, but it gives little insight into what aspects of model performance are "good" or "bad." This apparent weakness has led to a myriad of specialized error metrics, which are sometimes aggregated to form a composite score. Such scores are inherently subjective, however, and while their components may be interpretable, the composite itself is not. We contend that, a better approach to model benchmarking and interpretation is to decompose MSE into interpretable components. To demonstrate the versatility of this approach, we outline some fundamental types of decomposition and apply them to predictions at 1,021 streamgages across the conterminous United States from three streamflow models. Through this demonstration, we hope to show that each component in a decomposition represents a distinct concept, like "season" or "variability," and that simple decompositions can be combined to represent more complex concepts, like "seasonal variability," creating an expressive language through which to interrogate models and data. Plain Language Summary: Models are essential scientific tools for explaining and predicting phenomena ranging from weather and climate, to health outcomes, to economic development, to the origins of the universe, and testing competing models is one of the most basic scientific activites. Yet, how scientists evaluate and justify their models can be inconsistent or even arbitrary. Traditionally, one performance metric—such as mean squared error—is used to identify the best model, but one metric provides little insight into what aspects of a model are "good" or "bad." This paper proposes a basic language for expressing different aspects of a model's performance. On one hand, this is useful for determining which aspects of model may require revision, but it also allows the modeler to separate out the best elements among several models and combine them to form an ensemble, analogous to how an audio engineer mixes together multiple tracks to form the best rendition of a musical piece. Key Points: Mean squared error (MSE) is an objective but somewhat enigmatic measure of model performanceMSE can be decomposed into components that quantify specific aspects of model performance, such as bias and varianceMixing components among models yields a form of ensemble prediction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper introduces a new comprehensive panel of annual state-level income inequality measures spanning the postwar period 1945–2004. For many states, the share of income held by the top decile experienced a prolonged period of stability after World War II, followed by a substantial increase in inequality during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper also presents an examination of the long-run relationship between income inequality and economic growth. Our findings indicate that the long-run relationship between inequality and growth is positive in nature and driven principally by the concentration of income in the upper end of the income distribution. ( JEL D31, O40) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the convergence between the economists living in the Midwest and those living in the East and West Coasts of the U.S. who have separate approaches in macroeconomics in view of the paper of economist Bennett McCallum focusing on the new classical macroeconomics as of June 1989. Approach of the Midwest economists on the role of imperfect competition in price setting; Views of the East and West Coasts economists on economic growth; Impact of the convergence on several issues about macroeconomics.

This paper examines the relationship between immigrants' genetic diversity and economic development in the United States during the late nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth centuries, a period commonly referred to as the age of mass migration from Europe to the New World. Our panel model estimates show that during this period, immigrants' genetic diversity is significantly positively correlated with measures of U.S. counties' economic development. There exists also a significant positive relationship between immigrants' genetic diversity in 1870 and contemporaneous measures of U.S. counties' average income. (JEL J11, O51, Z13) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we examine the convergence hypothesis using a long memory framework that allows for structural breaks and does not rely on a benchmark country using both univariate and multivariate estimates of the long memory parameter d. Using per capita GDP gaps, we confirm the findings of non‐stationarity and long memory behavior that have been found previously in the literature using univariate tests. However, the support for these findings is much weaker when using a multivariate framework, in which case we find more evidence of stationary behavior. Based on these results, we also investigate club formation, something that would suggest the presence of conditional convergence. We describe a club formation methodology using the sequential testing criteria that we have employed in our analysis as the basis for forming clusters or clubs of countries with similar convergence characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

ABSTRACT This paper examines the effects of increasing anti-terrorism expenditure on economic growth rate and social welfare. It is shown that: (i) spending the least amount possible on anti-terrorism expenditure will lead to a maximum economic growth rate; and (ii) to achieve maximum social welfare, the government should allocate its budget to anti-terrorism expenditure. The results shed light on why the US government has chosen to uphold and pursue its anti-terrorism policies in recent years to present day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the relationship between offshoring and the labor market in an occupational choice model of trade and endogenous growth where workers are employed on the basis of their individual skill levels. Trade liberalization leads to offshoring and reduces employment in the manufacturing sector. Displaced workers move into traditional and innovation sectors according to their skill levels, shaping real wages and aggregate productivity in the manufacturing sector. The paper aims to show how inter-sectoral labor market adjustments, highlighted by skill heterogeneity, could be a possible explanation for the simultaneous rise in productivity and reduction in real wages that have coincided with the sharp escalation of offshoring activities in the U.S. manufacturing sector since 2004. ( JEL F16, F23, J24) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the controversial issue of regional development incentives. Although extensive research has been conducted, a review of the literature gives an inconclusive answer to whether economic incentives are effective. Why do researchers arrive at different conclusions, even after analysing the same programmes? Among the problems that we find, for example, is the fact that for some researchers ‘effective’ means the significant location of new firms in targeted areas, while for others the creation of jobs regardless of whether new firms are arriving in a significant fashion. Furthermore, as we elaborate, the selection of an econometric model will have a significant impact on expected results. Different models, with different limitations, will lead researchers to evaluate the same incentive programme but arrive at different conclusions regarding its effectiveness. The contribution of the paper is to inform policymakers about the potential opportunities and pitfalls when designing incentive strategies. This is particularly relevant, given that both the US and Europe have been promoting incentives as a tool for regional economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to his Nobel Prize-winning work in economic development and human capital, T.W. Schultz focused his attention most centrally on the economics of U.S. agriculture. His research on this subject, published mostly between 1932 and 1951, laid the foundation for his later work. However, the lasting value of Schultz's earlier work may appear to have been called into question even by the author himself. In the three books of collected writings he published toward the end of his life (Schultz, 1990, 1993a, 1993b), very few early writings are reprinted or even cited. Nonetheless, among agricultural economists, Schultz's earlier work has been as influential as his later work became among economists generally. In the American Economic Association's (1969) compilation, Schultz was referenced in the index more than any other economist, and all twenty-two references to his works refer to studies of U.S. agriculture (and only two of them to his work on human capital). In this paper, I review Schultz's contributions under two headings: the economics of farming and agricultural policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Late 1990s claims of a shift toward a new economy in the United States and other developed economies were said to accelerate earlier trends reducing the material content of production. The shift toward a postindustrial services economy is said to have been accentuated by application of new information and communications technologies, dramatically reducing the material content of production. This offers the possibility for continuous economic expansion unconstrained by resources supply. This paper provides a critical analysis of these trends in relation to resource use by developed economies. It shows that trends toward a lower material content of production are occurring, and this has led to poor demand conditions for primary producers. Nevertheless, these trends fall well short of eliminating Western economies’ dependence on key resources. This paper shows the changing role of resources in economic activity among developed economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are two hypotheses concerning how rapid growth affects women in rural communities: (1) women are more adversely affected than men, and (2) growth liberates women from their traditional sex roles. We used a specific subgroup of the female population-single, never- married females of marriageable age-to examine these two hypotheses. This paper focuses on how a male marriage-market squeeze caused by the influx of a large number of single, never-married males of marriageable age affects these females. The hypotheses, combined with proposals drawn from the demographic literature on marriage markets, are tested using data from counties in Montana and Utah impacted by energy development in the mid- and late 1970s. The measures used are changes in nuptiality rates and age patterns of first marriages. Our results do not allow us to fully accept or reject either hypothesis. Rather, changes in age patterns of marriage indicate that sorting out the local effects from the more pervasive social effects is problematic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the process of uneven development in the Deep South, focusing on the decade of 1970-1980. Measures developed from Census and County Business Pasterns data are used to examine several industrialization processes in all the counties of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Mississippi. These data reveal that changes in manufacturing establishments and employment are not uniform across the region, and low-wage industries continue to dominate the economy of the region. Further, the analysis documents the continuing significance of racial composition in these industrialization processes: plant and employment increases are more likely for predominantly white counties and losses more likely for counties having large black populations. Counties having high proportions of blacks and poor whites display the strongest attractions for low-wage industries. I also examine the effects of other labor-market characteristics upon the development process and suggest policy implications on the basis of these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decade of the seventies thus far has witnessed a considerable amount of legislative attention directed at rural areas. Under the general heading or rural development no fewer than 48 bills were introduced in the first session of the 92nd Congress in the House of Representatives and 22 bills were introduced in the U.S. Senate. Few of these became law but the sheer numbers give some indication as to the political importance of the issues involved. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a portion of one of the most important pieces of rural development legislation, the Rural Development Act of 1972 (RDA-72). This article traces the legislative history and the philosophical assumptions of RDA-72 with particular regard to the provisions of rural industrialization in the U.S.

The purpose of this paper is to measure the impact of investment in education on U.S. economic growth. Education is treated as an investment in human capital, since benefits accrue to an educated individual over a lifetime of activities. One of the most important benefits is higher income from labor market participation. This is the key to understanding the link between investment in education and economic growth. Our most important finding is that investment in human and nonhuman capital accounts for an overwhelming proportion of the growth of the U.S. economy during the postwar period. Educational investment will continue to predominate in the investment requirements for more rapid growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A random walk with drift is a good univariate representation of US GDP. This paper shows, however, that US economic downturns have been associated with predictable short-term recoveries and with changes in long-term GDP forecasts that are substantially smaller than the initial drop. To detect these predictable changes, it is important to use a multivariate time series model. We discuss reasons why univariate representations can miss key characteristics of the underlying variable such as predictability, especially during recessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Given its significant policy implications, the nexus between public expenditures and economic growth has been the subject of an extensive and often emotive theoretical and empirical debate. In this paper, a semiparametric model is used to explore the link between GDP and defence and non-defence government spending in the USA over the period 1929-2009. Evidence reported herein indicates that the latter represents a greater stimulus vis-à-vis the former. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a simple dynamic asset pricing model, this paper investigates the relationship between the precision of public information about economic growth and stock market returns. After fully characterizing expected returns and conditional volatility, I show that (i) higher precision of signals tends to increase the risk premium, (ii) when signals are imprecise the equity premium is bounded above independently of investors' risk aversion, (iii) return volatility is U-shaped with respect to investors' risk aversion, and (iv) the relationship between conditional expected returns and conditional variance is ambiguous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Comments on articles about entrepreneurship and rural development in the U.S. Analysis of the distribution of economic growth; Limitations of the success of entrepreneurial business in rural areas; Nature and meaning of a new economy; Types of development programs.

By demonstrating the superiority of the present-value to the recoupment-period criterion, Peter Lindert [2] has made a major contribution to the analysis of foreign investment controls. In fact, after reading Lindert's analysis, one wonders how the recoupment-period criterion got a foothold in the first place' the assessment of the net impact of a control program is clearly dependent on a comparison of capital inflows and outflows occurring at different points in time; and the accepted and traditional way to make such intertemporal comparisons is by a present value calculation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new economic geography (NEG) has become a mainstay of regional science in the last two decades, as signified by the awarding of Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize. Yet, most American regional scientists and urban/regional economists do not use NEG in determining regional growth patterns. Instead, they rely on factors such as natural amenity migration, whose roots lie back to the work of Philip Graves in the mid 1970s. Conversely, two of the world's leading economic geographers – Allen Scott and Michael Storper – have strongly argued that job availability not household amenities have determined US regional dynamics. Given the disparity of views over the largest developed economy in the world, we hold a competition to determine which of these leading contenders accurately predict US interregional growth dynamics over the last 40–60 years. The runaway winner of the duel is natural amenity led growth with the crown going to Graves. Implications are drawn for both empirical research and EU economic integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is high interest in economic development efforts involving cooperation or collaboration among metropolitan jurisdictions. To determine why some local governments engage in cooperative agreements while others do not, this paper investigates transaction obstacles, including bargaining, information, agency, enforcement, and division problems. The authors then advance an institutional collective action explanation for intergovernmental cooperation, focusing on the conditions under which these transactions costs are low. This work anticipates that the costs associated with interlocal cooperation are influenced by the demographic characteristics of communities, local political institutions, and the nature of regional government networks. Empirical analysis based on a national survey of local development officials provides support for several predictions from this model and identifies policy variables that, in turn, increase the prospects for cooperation, specifically through the development of informal policy networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, and using data from a sample of five US manufacturing industries, we study the implications of market demand growth on product line extensions and the effects of the latter on industry profit margins. Companies extend their product lines in response to expansions in market demand and this tends to depress profit margins in the industry. Finally, these results are quantitatively significant. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT. This paper analyzes the relationship between income inequality and economic growth within the United States using state level data. It describes income inequality in the U.S. since 1960, then employs a two-step causal model to test the institutionalist contention that income inequality leads to socio-political instability, which has a negative impact on economic progress. The empirical results offer support for the institutionalist view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I use data on U.S. manufacturing establishments to study the spatial reallocation of resources that takes place within surviving firms as they open and close establishments in different regions. To motivate the empirical analysis, I extend existing models of industry dynamics to include production‐location decisions within firms. Consistent with the theory, the empirical results show that only a fraction of firms make the same product in multiple regions, that multiregional firms are larger and more productive on average compared to single‐region firms, and that “region switching” is pervasive among multiregional firms and correlated with changes in firm and firm‐region characteristics. (JEL L2, F12, F23) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using concepts developed to explain the emergence of public welfare in nation-states, this paper proposes a model for explaining welfare effort in communities. This strategy is premised on the assumption that social systems tend to exhibit similar processes whether they are small communities or entire nations. The model assigns prime importance to the influence of economic development as a cause of welfare effort. This relationship is intervened by considerations of urbanization, political environment, the level of government organization, and the presence of a dependent population. The model is tested with a sample of U.S. counties with data from secondary sources by factor and regression analysis. With few exceptions, the model is supported by the data. The implications of the findings are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a historically contingent understanding of patterns of uneven economic development in the U.S. South. We conceptualize spatial variation in economic development and its consequences for inequality to be embedded in both local and international dynamics. The character of local economic development, it is argued, reflects the organizational base and heterogeneity of local elites, the divisions and relative power of nonelites, and the embeddedness of the local political economy in national and world systems of politics and production. These ideas are developed and made historically and spatially specific through an analysis of uneven development in one Southern state, North Carolina. Our findings suggest that contemporary patterns of uneven development and the resulting income deprivations and inequality reflect conditional interactions between elite economic projects and racial divisions within the working class. We find that outside investment seems to reproduce rather than disrupt local patterns of inequality and poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the political implications of the use of public enterprises at the municipal level, using survey data from Illinois cities. The dependent variables include the number of enterprises cities have, the dependence of cities on income from enterprises, and the choice of which enterprises to provide. The paper explores why some cities have enterprises to handle parking, garbage, and economic development. Conclusions are that cities experiencing fiscal stress avoid enterprises, and more-reformed cities use enterprises more frequently. Particular enterprises have their own political and financial characteristics and are more likely to be used by cities with matching political characteristics. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the historical record and time series properties of United States' industrial production for the period 1860 to 1991, utilizing unit root tests and measures of persistence. The results identify a segmented trend model which is used to assess the time-series simulation performance of four well-known models of economic growth: Solow (1957); Mankiw, Romer and Weil (MRW, 1992); Barro and Sala i Martin (BSM, 1992); and Rebelo (1991). Both the MRW and BSM models dominate the Solow model in accounting for twentieth century industrial growth, high-lighting the importance of human capital, and the paper suggests a new measure related to higher education. However, the Rebelo model explains the post-1973 slowdown more successfully than either of the 'augmented-Solow' approaches. The paper concludes with a discussion of the impact of shocks on US industrial growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a commentary on an article by Derick W. Brinkerhoff, published elsewhere in the issue, titled "The State and International Development Management: Shifting Tides, Changing Boundaries, and Future Directions." It presents a practitioner's perspective on theoretical points raised by Brinkerhoff regarding the field of development management. Issues addressed include increasing the involvement of aid workers with fragile states and the policies of the United States Agency for International Development.

ABSTRACT Existing empirical evidence suggests that the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity condition may not hold due to an exchange risk premium. For a panel dataset of eleven emerging European economies we decompose this exchange risk premium into an idiosyncratic (country-specific) element and a common factor using a principal components approach. We present evidence of stationary idiosyncratic and common factors. This result leads to the conclusion of a stationary risk premium for these countries, which is consistent with previous studies often documenting a stationary premium in advanced countries. Furthermore, we report that the variation in the premium is largely attributable to a common factor influenced by economic developments in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the study regarding the effect of recent tax changes on taxable income in the U.S. The elasticity of taxable income to the net-of-tax share has been estimated using a random sample of taxpayers taken from the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 tax changes. It is found that the elasticity of taxable income to the year 2008's net-of-tax share lies between 0.3 and 0.4 overall. The elasticity of a broader measure of income falls between 0.1 and 0.2 overall.

The sources of aggregate productivity growth are explored using detailed data for four-digit US manufacturing industries during 1958–96 and a decomposition formula that allows us to quantify the contribution of structural change. Labour productivity as well as total factor productivity are considered with either value-added or employment shares serving as aggregation weights. It is shown that structural change generally works in favour of industries with increasing productivity. This effect is particularly strong in the years since 1990, in high-tech industries and in durable goods producing industries. The impact of the computer revolution can be clearly identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article identifies the independent effect of Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s (WMS) retail stores on changes in social capital in the U.S. in the 1990's. A conceptual model of the processes leading to changes in social capital is proposed. Researchers hypothesize that big-box corporations depress social capital stocks in local communities. This intensifies the adverse effects of losing local philanthropic capacity, reinvestment of surpluses and community-specific knowledge or capital. It is found that social capital stocks are lower in communities in which new WMS stores were built and in communities that already had a WMS at the beginning of the 1990's.

Using industry data for the United States and the United Kingdom, we provide new evidence on the impact of information and communications technology (ICT) capital on real output growth. The traditional industry panel data analysis fails to find a positive contribution. We argue that this is due to heterogeneity across industries, particularly in the time dimension. Pooling the data for the two countries and using a dynamic panel data estimation method yield a positive and significant effect of ICT on output growth. Individual country estimates suggest a strong impact in the United States, while results are less conclusive in the United Kingdom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published QUARTERLY in the interest of constructive synthesis in the social sciences, under grants from the FrancisNeilsonFund and the RobertSchalkenbachFoundation.Founded in 1941Volume 64 April, 2005 Number 2 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract. I use U.S. manufacturing industry data to estimate a system of three equations implied by a model of R&D-induced growth in steady state. These equations relate R&D intensity to patenting, patenting to technological progress, and technological progress to economic growth. In each case, I find evidence of positive impact. Thus, I reject the null hypothesis that growth is not induced by R&D in favour of the Schumpeterian endogenous growth framework without scale effects. I also find strong support for technological spillovers from aggregate research intensity to industry-level innovation success. JEL Classification: O40, O30. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the economic analysis of the regulation of agriculture in the U.S. It is stated that regulation for agriculture can help foster competition by intervening to increase the number of firms or to dictate certain courses of action. It implies that promoting competitive market pricing and dealing with externalities such as fertilizer run-off and by-products of feedlots are the most prominent general regulatory fields of actions for agricultural development. It suggests the need for understanding the supply function to analyze the producer benefits or cost from regulatory measures.

Recent studies of state assumption of the CDBG-Small Cities program have been limited by two factors. First, they have been single-state case studies or confined to a small number of states. Second, they have adopted a narrow context for examining the likely impacts of community development following state assumption. This paper attempts to expand policy information based upon earlier work by studying a larger cross-section of states and considering the issues of redistribution and decentralization from a broader context. We find some significant policy changes from previous HUD program management but suggest that such may be due to the CDBG economic development amendment and an increase in multipurpose projects in the states. Unlike Morgan and England's (1984) recent article in PAR, we suggest that decentralization may not necessarily lead to decreasing redistributive community development policies in the states. Rather, redistribution may be incorporated within the enlarging proportion of multipurpose projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Railroads in general, and those of the United States in particular, have been the subject of considerable controversy and debate for many years. At least four groups of economists have shown special interest in the economic and social role played by this often troubled industry. Economic historians have debated for many years the extent of the railways' contribution to economic progress. The purpose of the present paper is two-fold: first, authors apply to the railroads the tools of modern risk analysis, using for this purpose a comparatively neglected data set-the long-term series of holding period rates of return on railroad shares-in order to derive an operational measure of secular stagnation. Clearly, the U.S. railroads constitute a propitious subject for such an experiment. Second, the risk analysis will be used to gain additional insights into the industry's transition from growth to stagnation. The various stages of the industry's development are examined against the background of the data on rates of return.

Increases in expected inflation or real growth in net rental income to land have been proposed as alternative explanations of the dramatic real growth in U.S. farmland prices in the 1970s. In this paper the effect of inflation is shown to be theoretically ambiguous. An empirical analysis, using U.S. and international farmland prices, suggests that most of the real land price growth can be explained by real growth in net rental income to land. Increases in expected inflation have had a negative effect on real land prices, but the effect of inflation has been comparatively small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financing of R&D provides a potentially important channel to link finance and economic growth, but there is no direct evidence that financial effects are large enough to impact aggregate R&D. U.S. firms finance R&D from volatile sources: cash flow and stock issues. We estimate dynamic R&D models for high-tech firms and find significant effects of cash flow and external equity for young, but not mature, firms. The financial coefficients for young firms are large enough that finance supply shifts can explain most of the dramatic 1990s R&D boom, which implies a significant connection between finance, innovation, and growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1960, 94 percent of doctors and lawyers were white men. By 2010, the fraction was just 62 percent. Similar changes in other highly‐skilled occupations have occurred throughout the U.S. economy during the last 50 years. Given that the innate talent for these professions is unlikely to have changed differently across groups, the change in the occupational distribution since 1960 suggests that a substantial pool of innately talented women and black men in 1960 were not pursuing their comparative advantage. We examine the effect on aggregate productivity of the convergence in the occupational distribution between 1960 and 2010 through the prism of a Roy model. Across our various specifications, between 20% and 40% of growth in aggregate market output per person can be explained by the improved allocation of talent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]