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It has been widely accepted that the structure of population of a country can have significant contribution towards its growth effort. With the proportional increase of relatively older group of people in developed countries alongside the proportional rise of the youth population in the developing part of the world, it is of paramount importance to understand the long term economic consequences of this changed structure of population. Despite having a favorable demographic composition, depending on public investment and policy strategy adopted, economies differ in terms of their ability to attain demographic dividend. The issue is therefore an empirical one which requires appropriate quantitative analysis. Against this backdrop, with the help of a 37-year long panel of 15 Asian countries, this study has made an attempt to understand the long run effect of changing demographic pattern on economic growth of Asian countries. Despite increased importance of demographic composition on labor supply, asset accumulation, savings, hence on the overall growth process, there is no literature focusing on the relationship from a cross-country perspective and while applying suitable methodological tools. Thus, this paper utilized econometric methods of panel data constructed using World Development Indicators (WDI) and Health Nutrition and Population Statistics (HNPS) from World Bank database to understand the linkage between dependency ratio and per capita GDP growth. Following cross section dependence test stationarity property of the variables has been diagnosed employing appropriate panel unit root tests. The short run and long run parameters have estimated with the help of Mean Group (MG), Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) estimators. PMG estimates have been preferred over the DFE and MG. It revealed the fact that for the Asian countries Dependency Ratio (DR) does not have any short run impact on Per Capita GDP Growth (PCGDPG) but it has significant long run impact therefore with an increase in working age population in comparison to the non-working group, there is a resulting increase in per capita GDP growth of Asian countries. Since changed demographic composition can only result in higher economic growth, if complemented by effective public policies, this paper provides empirical evidences in favor of such policies of human resource development. Besides, in order to reap the maximum benefit from working age population while increasing investment, it is important to engage them in productive, growth enhancing activities and that requires investment in employment generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savings and investment play a major role in any countries to fostering long term growth. It shows the amount of saving being converted into investment in the domestic economies which is related with capital mobility in the countries. Ever since seminal paper by Feldstein Horioka (1980), the issue regarding the relationship between saving and investment become one of the popular issues among economist researchers. They found that it has a strong relationship between saving and investment where about 85 percent to 95 percent approximately of the domestic saving are converted into domestic investment and at the same time capital mobility is relatively low. It means that saving and investment were circling around in the domestic countries rather than mobile to other countries. Many researchers relate this issue with capital immobility as domestic saving is easily transferred to the other countries and vice versa. As such, the aim of the present paper is to reinvestigate the nexus between saving and investment for the three-Asian economies namely China, India and Malaysia by employing the recent Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration modelling approach. Three emerging Asian countries have been chosen in this research which have its own economic strength and weaknesses. In which, the GDP growth prospect for China, India and Malaysia is 7%, 6% and 5% approximately in 2015. This study covers the annual sample from 1970 to 2013.The present paper employs ARDL bound procedure to test the presence of a co-integrated relationship which involves the standard F-test. One of the advantages of ARDL test is that it is more robust and performs better for small sample size of data which suitable for this research. The sample size is 43 years for each country. The annual time series data of saving and investment ratio as percentage of GDP in each country were utilized in this study. The result shows that the null hypothesis of the unit roots for the saving and investment series is rejected in first difference. It reveals that all the variables are co-integrated at first different. The ARDL F-test yields evidence a positive long run relationship between savings and investment for the three emerging Asian countries namely, Malaysia, China and India which is consistent with many past researches. It shows that the estimated ECTt-1 coefficient is found to be negative and statistically significant at 1% confidence level for China and India. Meanwhile, the estimated ECTt-1 is negative and statistically significant at 5% confidence level for Malaysia. As such, this results confirm the existence of long run relationship between savings and investment in the three countries concurrently. In the short run, it has a positive significant relationship between saving and investment in China and India. Furthermore, the estimated model has passes the diagnostic test and the stability test. Based on the finding, the speed of adjustment for Malaysia, India and China are 31%, 23% and 15% respectively. It indicates moderate speed of adjustment back to equilibrium. From this research paper, It shows that there is relationship between saving and invest in the three Asian countries. Thus, it is recommended that the three-Asian countries should not neglect its savings if the countries wish to spur its investments of which, will consequently generate economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robust economic growth across the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has lifted millions out of poverty. Nevertheless, there are concerns about whether growth will be derailed in the future. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of growth slowdown for the ASEAN economies which are at different levels of development. We aim to answer two questions: First, are determinants of economic slowdown likely to differ across income groups? Second, what are the probabilities that economies in ASEAN will experience a growth slowdown in the near future? We construct a sample of 107 economies including ASEAN economies, Greater China economies, as well as sub-national economies of India and Indonesia. The sample spans the period 1993-2013. We first classify these economies into four different income groups: low-income economies, lower-middle-income economies, uppermiddle- income economies and high-income economies using the criteria proposed by Felipe (2012). Next, we adopt the methodology of Eichengreen et al. (2012) to create a dummy variable representing the occurrence of growth slowdown episodes in each income group. We then run income group-specific logistic regressions to identify the determinants of growth slowdown and use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) techniques as a robustness check for our empirical findings. Using the regression results, we compute economy-specific predictive probabilities of growth slowdown over the period 2012-2017. Overall, the level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and human capital formation appear as important determinants of growth slowdown in all income groups. However, aside from these two variables, growth slowdown tends to be associated with different factors at different levels of development. Most notably, FDI inflows is an important determinant of growth slowdown for low-income and lower-middleincome economies while employment in the tertiary sector affects the probability of growth slowdown of lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income and high-income economies. Furthermore, we find that on average, ASEAN economies have a one-in-five chance of experiencing growth slowdown over the period 2012-2017. In terms of policy implications, the economy-specific predictive probabilities we compute may serve as early warning signs for policy-makers. Meanwhile, results from the regression analyses provide a roadmap for policy intervention to combat the risk of growth slowdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs Granger causality tests to examine linkages between economic growth, measured by changes in real per capita GDP, financial maturity, measured by an index - calculated by using principal component analysis, and the diffusion of telecommunications technology (DTT) in 21 Asian countries over the period 1961-2012. We advance on previous studies with (a) advanced estimation procedures (panel cointegration techniques and panel Granger causality tests); and (b) the inclusion of all three potentially two-way interacting variables conjointly. Our findings are not uniform: they vary based on the region and country that is studied. We find that in the case of Bangladesh, Philippines, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates and for Total Asia, financial maturity leads to economic growth, lending support to the supply-leading hypothesis. This implies that economic growth depends upon the level of financial maturity of the countries. In the case of Hong Kong, South Korea, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Vietnam, economic growth leads to financial maturity, lending support to the demand-following hypothesis. This implies that economic growth determines the level of financial maturity. For Bangladesh, Philippines, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Total Asia, financial maturity leads to economic growth, in line with the supply-leading hypothesis. In case of China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, Iran, Thailand, Kuwait, East Asia, South Asia, and West Asia, economic growth and financial maturity cause each other, lending support to both the demand-following and supplyleading hypotheses. Furthermore, in the case of India, Malaysia, and Philippines, economic growth leads to DTT, congruent with the demand-following hypothesis. On the other hand, in the case of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Asia, South East Asia, and Total Asia, DTT leads to economic growth, lending support to the supplyleading hypothesis. By contrast, for China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Qatar, and East Asia, economic growth and DTT are self-reinforcing and subject to feedback consistent with both the demand-following and supply-leading hypotheses. Finally, in the case of Hong Kong, Pakistan, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, United Arab Emirates, South East Asia, and Total Asia, DTT leads to financial maturity, lending support to the supply-leading hypothesis, while for China, India, Kuwait, Qatar, and West Asia, financial maturity leads to DTT, lending support to the demand-following hypothesis. In case of Malaysia, financial maturity and DTT cause each other thus supporting both the demand-following and supply-leading hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]