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The article presents the authors' views in response to a comment on their paper "Patterns of Low and Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe," published in a 2004 issue of the journal "Population Studies." In their comment, the critics have argued that the cohort-fertility analysis in the aforesaid paper is weak on theoretical grounds and the empirical analysis is incomplete. The authors affirm that they agree with the comment that, as a society, the Netherlands differs from Southern Europe and even more from Central and Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, from a contemporary global perspective, these differences should not be overemphasized. They say that in their analyses, they used the Netherlands as a reference case of a country with an extraordinary pattern of late childbearing that is not associated with lowest-low fertility levels. However, the critics believe that these unusual characteristics invalidate the use of the Dutch example in the paper. So, this criticism is misconceived. It is precisely the unusualness of the fertility pattern in the Netherlands that makes it a useful reference point in the study of low and lowest-low fertility.

The article presents the authors' comments on the paper entitled, "Patterns of Low and Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe," by Francesco C. Billari and Hans-Peter Kohler, published in a 2004 issue of the journal "Population Studies." In their comment, the authors argue that the original authors' comparison of cohort-fertility patterns in the lowest-low fertility countries of Southern, Central, and Eastern Europe with Dutch cohort patterns is weak on theoretical grounds and that the empirical analysis is incomplete. The empirical analysis demonstrates that in the young cohorts of Southern, Central, and Eastern Europe, childbearing may very well decline below the levels observed in the Netherlands and in other West European countries. This is already happening in Southern Europe. Moreover, the childbearing surplus in early adulthood is evaporating, and the recuperation that would be needed for completed cohort fertility in these countries to remain above that of many West European countries is of such magnitude that it is doubtful whether it could occur.

Early work on China's Two-Child Policy identified cost as a major disincentive to having a second child, but financial constraints may work in tandem with cultural factors to shape childbearing desire. In addition, most research has excluded men from the sample. This paper develops Yan's (2003) concepts of 'new' and 'traditional' fertility cultures to childbearing desire, a key component of fertility decision-making that is poorly understood (Hayford & Agadjanian, 2017). In particular, we focus on how differing conceptions of children's needs relate to perceptions of cost. This paper reports on semi-structured interviews with 29 men and women in Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province. We found that interviewees who espoused views consistent with a traditional fertility framework were more interested in having a second child, and were less concerned about cost. In addition, men were more likely to espouse views consistent with a traditional fertility cultural framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the population aging, on May 31, 2021, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) proposed the policy that a couple can have three children and rolled out more supportive measures to further optimize fertility policies, which is another major initiative following the universal two-child policy introduced in November 2015. Currently, a series of population policy innovations have aroused great attractions among the public and triggered a hot debating on the Internet. People’s fertility attitude tendency under different related policies can reflect their current fertility intentions. Based on the fact, this paper firstly classifies the sentiment of online comment data on the three-child policy and analyzes people’s sentiment tendency toward the three-child policy from the spatio-temporal perspectives. Secondly, people’s points of view on the three-child policy are summarized by using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) thematic clustering. The reasons for the change in people’s fertility attitude tendency under different fertility policies are analyzed by comparing the change in people’s fertility attitude tendency with the change in people’s attentions. Finally, a multiple regression equation is constructed to analyze the key factors influencing people’s intention to have three children by using public opinion data and its extension data. The findings demonstrate: (1) people’s fertility attitudes toward the three-child policy are negative and similar among different regions; (2) compared to the two-child policy, the percentage of negative and neutral attitudes toward the three-child policy increases, while the percentage of positive attitudes decreases; (3) the increase in fertility costs, the deterioration of women’s employment environment, and the change in the concept of marriage and childbirth become important reasons for the negative change in people’s fertility attitudes toward different policies. Therefore, the government should take measures to reduce the burden of childbirth and guide the correct concept of marriage and childbirth to improve people’s fertility intentions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Postponement of first birth has implications for the health and well-being of women and is often associated with lower fertility levels, a demographic reality affecting most high-income countries. Country-level institutional differences are one factor behind the variation in fertility in these countries. This paper examines the relationship between housing and mean age at first birth across 39 low-fertility countries. Using newly compiled indicators of multiple dimensions of the housing context we explore housing from the perspective of renters and homebuyers and examine differences for former-communist and non-former-communist countries. We use six indicators of the housing context and combine them into three different indexes: renter support index, homebuyer support index, and a combined index of both dimensions. Analyses show that access to housing is associated with age at first birth, but that this relationship has changed over time and is different for former-communist and non-former-communist countries. Findings support theories that expectations regarding the importance of homeownership for family formation are changing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a divergence in the pace of fertility decline between the Muslim-dominated countries of Maghreb and those of Middle/West Africa (despite having similar religious beliefs, which studies have implicated as a major determinant of fertility behaviours). While the Maghreb countries have total fertility rate ranging between 2 and 3, it ranges between 6 and 7 in Muslim-majority countries of Middle/West Africa. Factors other than religion seem to be responsible for this divergent pattern. Evidence is sparse on this. This paper provides empirical evidence on factors influencing divergent pattern in fertility levels of selected Muslim-dominated countries of Maghreb and Middle/West Africa. Based on availability of recent data, this paper drew on Demographic and Health Survey data of three Middle/West Africa countries—Mali (2013–14), Niger (2012) and Northern Nigeria (2013); and two North African countries—Egypt (2014) and Morocco (2003–04). Relationships were explored using Poisson regression models that adjusted for religion and women characteristics. Findings showed that age at first marriage, age at first birth, contraceptive use, child mortality, plurality of marriage and women education are the major drivers of divergence in fertility patterns of the selected countries in both sub-regions. Differences in proximate determinants of fertility played significant roles in shaping the divergent pattern in fertility levels between both sub-regions. Rather than focusing on religion, this study suggests the need for transition in the proximate determinants of fertility in Middle/West African countries, if the sub-region would achieve the desired fertility decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines social class differences in fertility, using longitudinal micro-level data for a regional sample in Sweden, 1922–2015. Using discrete-time event history models, we estimated the association between social class and parity-specific duration to next birth, adjusting for household income in separate models. Social class was associated with fertility quite independently from income and the association was both parity-dependent and sex-specific. For transitions to parenthood, higher class position was associated with higher fertility for men and lower fertility for women before 1970, but then converged into a positive association for both sexes after 1990. For continued childbearing, a weak U-shaped relationship before 1947 turned into a positive relationship for second births and a negative relationship for higher-order births in the period after 1990. These patterns likely reflect broader changes in work–family compatibility and are connected to profound shifts in labour markets and institutional arrangements in twentieth-century Sweden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Own Children Method (OCM) is an indirect procedure for deriving age-specific fertility rates and total fertility from children living with their mothers at a census or survey. The method was designed primarily for the calculation of overall fertility, although there are variants that allow the calculation of marital fertility. In this paper we argue that the standard variants for calculating marital fertility can produce misleading results and require strong assumptions, particularly when applied to social or spatial subgroups. We present two new variants of the method for calculating marital fertility: the first of these allows for the presence of non-marital fertility and the second also permits the more robust calculation of rates for social subgroups of the population. We illustrate and test these using full-count census data for England and Wales in 1911. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hong Kong is characterized by very low fertility. However, over a period from 2000 to 2015, both the total number of births and the sex ratio at birth (SRB) increased and then declined dramatically. We analysed the increases in a 2013 paper in this journal, where we largely ascribed them to a rapid growth in the number of 'transient' mothers from Mainland China disproportionately giving birth to boys in the territory. In 2012, policies were implemented to halt this 'maternity migration'. Here, we explore the impact of these policies, both on births and the SRB in Hong Kong. We conclude that the rises and falls in births and SRBs in Hong Kong can, indeed, be broadly ascribed to the reproductive behaviour of transient Mainland mothers. However, the role of the Hong Kong government's policy interventions is much less clearly defined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a stochastic dynamic mathematical model, in which a Family Policy Index (XFPI) is included to measure and compare two different models of provision of resources to support families with children from 0 to 3 years old. The main variables in this model are the XFPI, fertility, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. This mathematical model was validated in two different countries, Spain and Norway, during the 2007–2015 period. A sensitivity analysis was applied to simulate the future trend (2016–2030), examining the influence of providing public pre-school services (0 to 3 years) on (XISF). The results obtained show that these services may indeed have an influence on fertility rates, as long as they are developed extensively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether unemployment and insecure employment lead to delaying first childbearing in France, and whether these impacts are likely to differ between children of immigrants from North Africa and natives across genders. Data come from pooling two cohorts of French school-leavers followed over 7–10 years. Findings show that women of North African descent have a first child later than native women, whereas results for men are not significantly ethnic origin-differentiated. Unemployment and non-permanent employment are related to postponement of fertility for both men and women. Current unemployment affects the children of immigrants from North Africa more than their counterparts with no direct migration background. Persistent unemployment does not have any significant effect on childbearing for the women of North African immigrant descent, while it strongly reduces that of the men. While employment uncertainty thus tends to delay first parenthood, its impact seems to occur more through the timing of couple formation than through the timing of conception among children of immigrants from North Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The timings of historical fertility transitions in different regions are well understood by demographers, but much less is known regarding their specific features and causes. In the study reported in this paper, we used longitudinal micro-level data for five local populations in Europe and North America to analyse the relationship between socio-economic status and fertility during the fertility transition. Using comparable analytical models and class schemes for each population, we examined the changing socio-economic differences in marital fertility and related these to common theories on fertility behaviour. Our results do not provide support for the hypothesis of universally high fertility among the upper classes in pre- transitional society, but do support the idea that the upper classes acted as forerunners by reducing their fertility before other groups. Farmers and unskilled workers were the latest to start limiting their fertility. Apart from these similarities, patterns of class differences in fertility varied significantly between populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are found widespread in the environment and humans. The relation of PFASs to fertility has now been examined in a relatively large number of epidemiologic studies and a synthesis is in order. The aim of this study was to assess the current human epidemiologic evidence on the association between exposure to PFASs and measures of human fertility, with particular emphasis on perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA). Systematic literature searches were initially conducted in MEDLINE and EMBASE and subsequently in references and citations of included papers. Studies were included if they assessed exposure to PFASs in biological samples in relation to reproductive hormones, semen characteristics, or time to pregnancy (TTP). Study characteristics and results were abstracted to predefined forms, and the studies were assessed for the risk of bias and confounding. Sixteen studies investigated the association between PFAS exposure in men and semen parameters, reproductive hormone levels, or TTP. There was a lack of consistent results among the numerous investigated exposure-outcome combinations. However, subtle associations between higher PFOS and lower testosterone or abnormal semen morphology cannot be excluded. Eleven studies assessed the association between PFAS exposure in women and TTP or reproductive hormones levels. Four of eight studies found prolonged TTP with higher PFOS or PFOA, but only one study found an association when restricting to nulliparous women. In men, there is little evidence of an association between PFAS exposure and semen quality or levels of reproductive hormones. For PFOS and PFOA, the literature indicates an association with female fecundability in parous women, which is most likely not causal. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: There is an ongoing debate in the literature regarding the causes behind fertility transition. Especially, the relative importance of economic modernization versus cultural adaptation is hotly debated. The paper takes Transylvania, the eastern part of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy as an example. The period of 1880–1910 was a time of fast modernization and industrialization in Transylvania, and it created large territorial differences in economic development. The ethnic and religious composition of the area is versatile; mainly Orthodox Romanians, Catholic Hungarians, and Protestant Germans populated the area. Data: A cross-sectional database has been created by matching census and vital statistics records for 4112 settlements, for the 1900–1910 period. Method: OLS regression is used to model crude birth rates by settlement. The factors affecting fertility are modeled using the Easterlin–Crimmins framework. Results: An explanation placing economic factors (demand and supply) in first place, but accepting the secondary role of innovation factors as barriers to implement fertility regulation, fits the data about Transylvania well. Discussion: Previous research results regarding Hungary could not show the effect of some socio-economic variables on fertility, due to the high level of aggregation. They favoured cultural explanations, and shown Hungary as an exception to the rules of demographic transition. In contrast, this paper shows that the classic explanatory factors like infant mortality, migration, literacy, and secularization do explain fertility differentials in Transylvania at the turn of the 20th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inadequate data and apartheid policies have meant that, until recently, most demographers have not had the opportunity to investigate the level of, and trend in, the fertility of South African women. The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey provide the first widely available and nationally representative demographic data on South Africa since 1970. Using these data, this paper describes the South African fertility decline from 1955 to 1996. Having identified and adjusted for several errors in the 1996 Census data, the paper argues that total fertility at that time was 3.2 children per woman nationally, and 3.5 children per woman for African South Africans. These levels are lower than in any other sub-Saharan African country. We show also that fertility in South Africa has been falling since the 1960s. Thus, fertility transition predates the establishment of a family planning programme in the country in 1974. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely documented that Thailand's National Family Planning Program (NFPP) has been successful in increasing contraceptive prevalence and reducing fertility. In this paper, we investigate to what extent setting up the NFPP between the mid 1960s and the early 1990s in local communities per se has added to this success. For this, we use data from the 1992/93 Survey on the Status of Women and Fertility in Thailand (SWAFT). We find that presence of the NFPP in a community is associated with less than two percentage points higher proportion of women with contraceptive experience at ages 15–19, to about six percentage points higher proportion at ages 35–39, and with about a 3 per cent lower completed fertility. Although these associations are relatively small, they are significant and may suggest that setting up the NFPP in local communities per se has been important for a small group of hard-to-reach women with unmet contraceptive needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impact of culture on the fertility behavior of teenage women in the US. To identify this effect, it took an epidemiological approach, exploiting the variations in teenage women's fertility rates by ancestral home country. Using three different databases (the US National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, the US National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, and the 2000 US Census), the results show that culture has quantitatively important effects on the fertility behavior of teenage women. This finding is robust to alternative specifications, to the introduction of a range of home country variables to proxy culture, and to the measurement of individual characteristics present when teenage women continue with a pregnancy to have a child. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the association between fertility preferences and contraceptive use among 15–49-year-old women living in Korogocho and Viwandani, informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya. We draw on longitudinal data collected under the Maternal and Child Health project conducted between 2006 and 2010 in the two settlements. There is substantial regularity and stability but also unusual instability in reported fertility preferences over time among women living in these settings. Younger women, aged 15–24 years, are likely to change their preferences over time, passing from limiting to wanting additional children. But women aged 35–49 are likely to change their preferences from desiring more children to limiting their childbearing. The desire to limit childbearing is strongly associated with the use of modern and long-acting contraceptive methods. Findings have major implications for the success of family planning programmes in informal settlements where access to and knowledge about contraception may be limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a promising start some three decades ago, the application of micro-economic analysis to fertility studies has proved disappointing. It has not led to an increased understanding of fertility decisions nor to the policy insights which had been expected. This paper considers the reasons for this disappointment. It reviews briefly the development of the now dominant version of the economic approach to fertility analysis, the so-called "Chicago Model". It concludes that several basic conceptual and theoretical weaknesses of this approach have led it up a blind alley. The paper concludes with suggestions for new assumptions and approaches which may make the theory more relevant for policy programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How can we explain that same-sex marriages have been approved in countries like Portugal (2010) and Spain (2005), where the majority of the population identifies with the catholic religion, when they are not recognised in countries with more liberal traditions? Assessing social, economic and legal changes this paper aims to explain the transformations on family, gender and public policies in Portugal in the context of the welfarestate. Two main lines of analysis are pursued. First, changes in practices, attitudes and laws, such as the approval of gay marriage in Portugal (2010), are discussed and related to social, economic and institutional processes. The remarkable fall of catholic marriage in Portugal and the huge growth of children born out of the wedlock, just in one decade (2000–2010), are only some of the examples of these transformations. Secondly, the development of social, family, care and gender equality policies are analysed in order to put the welfare pathway of change in perspective: from a late start in the 1970s and 1980s to the expanding coverage, highlighting welfare-state insufficiencies and limitations as well as, more recently, with ideological and financial pressures for retrenchment. Bridges and troubled relations between social practises, values and public policies are also debated. Our research results are based in data from several sources, namely, European Social Survey (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010), Eurostat and National Statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper presents a new method for estimating the effect of child mortality on the total fertility rate (TFR). The method is based on discrete-time survival models of parity progression that allow construction of a multivariate multidimensional life table of fertility with four dimensions: woman's age, parity, duration in parity, and number of previous child deaths. Additional socio-economic variables are included in the set of predictor variables in the underlying survival models of parity progression. The life table yields a replacement rate, which measures the effect of one additional child death on the TFR. The method is illustrated by applying it to three Indian National Family Health Surveys. Major findings are that dead children are incompletely replaced, and that the replacement rate rises as the TFR falls, reflecting women's increasing ability to control their fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last few decades the number of women becoming pregnant later on in life has markedly increased. Medical experts have raised concerns about the increase in the number of women having babies later, owing to evidence that suggests that advancing maternal age is associated with both a decline in fertility and an increase in health risks to both mother and baby. In recognition of these risks, experts have warned that women should aim to have their children between the ages of twenty and thirty-five. As a consequence, women giving birth past the age of thirty-five have typically been positioned as “older mothers.” In this paper we used a social constructionist thematic analysis in order to analyse how “older mothers” are represented in newspaper articles in the British press. We examined how the topics of “choice” and “risk” are handled in discussions of delayed motherhood, and found that the media position women as wholly responsible for choosing the timing of pregnancy and, as a consequence, as accountable for the associated risks. Moreover, we noted that newspapers also constructed a “right” time for women to become pregnant. As such, we discuss the implications for the ability of women to make real choices surrounding the timing of pregnancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper studies the influence of biological and behavioural determinants on the reproductive period and fertility of older, rural Portuguese women (Municipality of Oleiros) and their mothers and describes the secular trends 1880--1940. Method: The reproductive histories of 337 women who were 44 years and older were obtained through personal interviews. Participants were also asked about the reproductive events of their mothers. Results: The women's mean values of reproductive variables were: marriage age, 22.80  ±±  3.89 years, age at first birth, 24.46  ±±  4.11 years, age at last birth, 32.26  ±±  6.56 years, childbearing periods, 7.76  ±±  6.20 years, and effective number of children, 3.25  ±±  2.06 children. The childbearing periods of participants' mothers were 8.59  ±±  6.98 years, with an age at first birth of 25.11  ±±  4.31 years, age at last birth of 35.33  ±±  6.14 years and effective number of children of 4.45  ±±  2.19 children. The women's age at marriage and the age at last birth were related to childbearing period and effective number of children. Participants were younger at first birth and at last birth and had a lower effective number of children compared to their mothers. Conclusions: Over time mean values of the reproductive events and the effective number of children decreased slowly and were likely influenced through cultural, behavioural and healthcare changes occurring in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes recent fertility trends in European and/or Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD] countries and surveys the effects of family-friendly policies on fertility. Although these policies do seem to have an impact on fertility, their magnitude is limited. Financial benefits, whether conditional on employment status or not, have an undeniable impact on the timing of births, but their impact on the cohort overall fertility is less certain. Conversely, policies that facilitate the work-family balance seem to have a strong influence on the decision to have children or not. However, they do not always help reduce differences in behaviour between social classes. The impact of family-friendly policies is probably underestimated because of the difficulty of assessing their coherence and long-term effects. Moreover, policies do not always have proven effect because their impact is often temporary in the absence of a complete set of support that accompany families all along the childhood. The effectiveness of policies also depends on their permanency and the stability of economic environment. Stable policies can mitigate the impact of economic recession on fertility as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fertility in Singapore has been at lowest-low levels of below 1.3 since 2003. Analysis on fertility trends in Singapore has thus far focused on period fertility. Cohort fertility analysis would be useful in examining whether current cohorts of women of childbearing age are likely to catch up on fertility in the near future. This paper briefly introduces the period fertility trends in Singapore, with an analysis of age-parity specific fertility rates. It then examines, in detail, cohort fertility using official administrative data, as well as census and survey data over time. Estimates of cohort fertility show that low period fertility in Singapore is mainly due to quantum rather than tempo effects. In the absence of any fundamental value changes in society in the near future, the declining cohort fertility means that period fertility in Singapore is unlikely to experience increases to levels higher than a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents estimates of the level and trend of the fertility of different ethnic minorities in the UK from the 1960s up to 2006. The fertility estimates are derived primarily from the Labour Force Survey using the Own-Child method, with additional information from the General Household Survey and vital registration data. Comparisons are made between the level of fertility of UK-born and immigrant mothers from minority groups, and the fertility of the populations in the country of origin. Total fertility in all groups has fallen from levels that were initially relatively high. That of some UK ethnic groups has already fallen to about the level of the UK national average (e.g., black Caribbean) or below it (e.g., Indian and Chinese). Only among Pakistani and Bangladeshi women does total fertility remain substantially above the national average despite a continuous decrease over the last 20 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates to what extent variation in the distribution across occupational categories in the labour market affects women's demographic behaviour. It specifically explores which occupational categories are more beneficial for women in the transition to first, second and third birth in Spain. Event-history analyses are applied to retrospective data from the Spanish Fertility and Family Survey (1995). The results show that there are differences in women's fertility according to their occupational choice and demonstrate that health and teaching professionals show an advantage in harmonizing work and motherhood in Spain. This finding is consistent with the idea that not only the impact of occupational sex-segregation on women's fertility is explicable by each woman's specific attitudes towards motherhood and career but also by her employment conditions at the workplace. This effect is particularly strong in Spain due to the specific national context of combining family responsibilities and labour force participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents abstracts of papers submitted during the sixth biennial conference of the Fertility Societies in Great Britain, titled "Fertility 2009," including "A systematic review of the effect of oral anti-oxidants on male subfertility," Prospective and systematic evaluation of a barcode witnessing system," and "What is the true impact of the removal of sperm donor anonymity?"

This paper estimates the effect of childcare leave on married women's fertility in Japan, based on data from the 2007 National Survey on Work and Family. The analysis takes into account how childcare leave influences fertility through its intermediate effects on women's selection into the labor market, job tenure, wages and the opportunity cost of children. Results indicate a strong effect of childcare leave on years of continuous job tenure with the same employer, and on predicted wages for full-time working women. Taking childcare leave for the first child increases the percentage progressing from first to second birth by six percentage points. There is also clear evidence that lowering the opportunity cost of children increases fertility, net of the effect of childcare leave, which affects fertility via the opportunity cost of children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Immediately after World War Two, Japan's fertility declined by more than 50 per cent in 10 years. This unprecedented decline of fertility resulted in a substantial shift in personal resource allocation away from childrearing and induced a rapid accumulation of physical capital in the 1950s, which provided a strong base for achieving Japan's phenomenal economic growth from the late 1950s to the early 1970s. By heavily drawing upon two simulation models, this paper attempts to show how large the demographic bonus was in post-war Japan and how serious the demographic onus is likely to be over the period 2000–2025. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives . The objective of the present paper is to review the main results of recent European cycle databases on ovulation detection and determination of the fertile window performed by the women themselves. Methods . The ongoing German Long-term Cycle Database currently comprises 32?788 prospectively collected cycle charts of 1551 women, the I European Cycle Database (10 countries) 1328 women/19?048 cycles, the II European Cycle Database (six countries) 782 women/6724 cycles, and the World Health Organization Database (one European country) 234 women/2808 cycles. The women record cycle parameters (cervical mucus changes, temperature rise, etc.), family planning intention and sexual behavior. Results . With the symptothermal method of natural family planning it has become possible to determine the fertile window in order to avoid pregnancy with a method effectiveness of 0.3%. According to a small sub-study, the ovulation time observed by the women themselves correlates closely with ovulation detected by ultrasound and measurement of luteinizing hormone (correlation within 1 day in 89% of the 62 cycles). Fertility awareness methods can be integrated into the management of sub-fertility. They seem to shorten the time to pregnancy. Conclusions . Self-observation of the fertile window puts women into a position to develop a high level of reproductive competence that could be used much more in different areas than is currently the case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines causality and parameter instability in the long-run relationship between fertility and women's employment This is done by a cross-national comparison of macro-level time-series data from 1960 to 2000 for France, West Germany, Italy, Sweden, the UK, and the USA. By applying vector error correction models (a combination of Granger-causality tests with recent econometric time-series techniques) we find causality in both directions. This finding is consistent with simultaneous movements of both variables brought about by common exogenous factors such as social norms, social institutions, financial incentives, and the availability and acceptability of contraception. We find a negative and significant correlation until about the mid-1970's and an insignificant or weaker negative correlation afterwards. This result is consistent with a recent hypothesis in the demographic literature according to which changes in the institutional context, such as changes in childcare availability and attitudes towards working mothers, might have reduced the incompatibility between child-rearing and the employment of women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is argued in this paper that "perceptions" about the determinants of fertility and of fertility decline can be "politicized" by various special interest groups; that is, these perceptions can be used to push for policies and interventions which often have an ambiguous relationship to actual fertility, but are important because they already appear on the political agenda of these groups. Such politicization is facilitated by the near-universal consensus that fertility decline is a legitimate goal in the developing world, by the increasing evidence that there can be no grand theory of fertility decline, and by the willingness of scholars to attach a policy significance to all their findings. Two examples of such politicization in India are presented, one of which has a socially beneficial impact, whilst the other is potentially disruptive, to illustrate that such politicization is not without its dangers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]