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Jurisdictions throughout the world are contemplating greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies that will enable meeting long-term GHG targets. Many jurisdictions are now focusing on the 2020-2050 timeframe. We conduct an inter-model comparison of nine California statewide energy models with GHG mitigation scenarios to 2050 to better understand common insights across models, ranges of intermediate GHG targets (i.e., for 2030), necessary technology deployment rates, and future modeling needs for the state. The models are diverse in their representation of the California economy: across scenarios with deep reductions in GHGs, annual statewide GHG emissions are 8-46 % lower than 1990 levels by 2030 and 59-84 % lower by 2050 (not including the Wind-Water-Solar model); the largest cumulative reductions occur in scenarios that favor early mitigation; non-hydroelectric renewables account for 30-58 % of electricity generated for the state in 2030 and 30-89 % by 2050 (not including the Wind-Water-Solar model) ; the transportation sector is decarbonized using a mix of energy efficiency gains and alternative-fueled vehicles; and bioenergy is directed almost exclusively towards the transportation sector, accounting for a maximum of 40 % of transportation energy by 2050. Models suggest that without new policies, emissions from non-energy sectors and from high-global-warming-potential gases may alone exceed California's 2050 GHG goal. Finally, future modeling efforts should focus on the: economic impacts and logistical feasibility of given scenarios, interactive effects between two or more climate policies, role of uncertainty in the state's long-term energy planning, and identification of pathways that achieve the dual goals of criteria pollutant and GHG emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many emerging infectious diseases in human populations are associated with zoonotic origins. Attention has often focused on wild animal reservoirs, but most zoonotic pathogens of recent concern to human health either originate in, or are transferred to, human populations from domesticated animals raised for human consumption. Thus, the ecological context of emerging infectious disease comprises two overlapping ecosystems: the natural habitats and populations of wild animals, and the anthropogenically controlled habitats and populations of domesticated species. Intensive food animal production systems and their associated value chains dominate in developed countries and are increasingly important in developing countries. These systems are characterized by large numbers of animals being raised in confinement with high throughput and rapid turnover. Although not typically recognized as such, industrial food animal production generates unique ecosystems—environments that may facilitate the evolution of zoonotic pathogens and their transmission to human populations. It is often assumed that confined food animal production reduces risks of emerging zoonotic diseases. This article provides evidence suggesting that these industrial systems may increase animal and public health risks unless there is recognition of the specific biosecurity and biocontainment challenges of the industrial model. Moreover, the economic drivers and constraints faced by the industry and its participants must be fully understood in order to inform preventative policy. In order to more effectively reduce zoonotic disease risk from industrial food animal production, private incentives for the implementation of biosecurity must align with public health interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a conceptual framework of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It assumes that climate change will result in a fertilization effect and a shift of agro-ecological conditions away from the Equator towards the Poles. The agro-ecological shift is likely to reduce yield because of reduced acreage and the fertilization effect will increase yield. The aggregate effect depends on whichever of the two dominates. The overall effect of climate change may be less significant than its distributional effects and the results are consistent with previous empirical studies. The impact of climate change depends on its pace. Faster changes in climate will result in higher cost. The assessment of the cost has to consider that climate change is a dynamic phenomenon that may require continuous adjustment. Environmental regulation that emphasizes conservation may increase cost of adjustment and environmental policies should emphasize adaptation and flexibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an assessment of the impact of increased economic integration within North America on industrial pollution intensities within the Great Lake states of the United States. It utilizes a three-country, applied general equilibrium model of the North American economy, data from the World Bank's Industrial Pollution Projection System, and employment data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis to simulate the industrial pollution impacts of North American trade liberalization within the Great Lakes region. The results reflect the liberalization of tariff and non-tariff barriers, their trade and production impacts, state-level shares in the production changes, and the resulting industrial effluent changes. Two trade liberalization experiments show that, in many cases, the Great Lake states account for a substantial portion of the total emission changes caused by North American economic integration. Of particular concern to the Great Lake states are the emissions of the base metals, transportation equipment, and petroleum sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We empirically evaluate the aggregate welfare effects and structural adjustment for the Spanish economy that would follow from trade liberalization with the European Economic Community. Recent theory suggests that the classical gains form more liberal trade relations could be amplified substantially if EEC liberalization permits Spanish industries to realize economies of scale. These effects depend upon the extent of trade creation and trade diversion resulting from preferential liberalization, which in turn depend on the existing patterns of Spanish resource allocation, trade, and comparative advantage. The estimated results are derived from disaggregated microeconomic model of the Spanish economy. We find that increasing returns can actually be beneficial or detrimental, depending upon the interactions between trade and policy toward domestic industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addresses structural change in the U.S. economy during the 1980s by focusing on changes in receipt and expenditure vectors within the framework of social accounting matrices. Shifts in energy use; Increase in import and foreign investment independence; Effects of changing final demand on individual domestic sectors; Rate of domestic capital formation.