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Background: Due to the lack of timely access to resources for critical care, strategic use of antiviral drugs is crucial for mitigating the impact of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential in remote and isolated communities. We sought to evaluate the effect of antiviral treatment and prophylaxis of close contacts in a Canadian remote northern community. Methods: We used an agent-based, discrete-time simulation model for disease spread in a remote community, which was developed as an in-silico population using population census data. Relative and cumulative age-specific attack rates, and the total number of infections in simulated model scenarios were obtained. Results: We found that early initiation of antiviral treatment is more critical for lowering attack rates in a remote setting with a low population-average age compared to an urban population. Our results show that a significant reduction in the relative, age-specific attack rates due to increasing treatment coverage does not necessarily translate to a significant reduction in the overall arrack rate. When treatment coverage varies from low to moderate, targeted prophylaxis has a very limited impact in reducing attack rates and should be offered at a low level (below 10%) to avoid excessive waste of drugs. Conclusions: In contrast to previous work, for conservative treatment coverages, our results do not provide any convincing evidence for the implementation of targeted prophylaxis. The findings suggest that public health strategies in remote communities should focus on the wider availability (higher coverage) and timely distribution of antiviral drugs for treatment of clinically ill individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth. Methodology: The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R0, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e.g., daily incidence counts). Principal Findings: Compared to simulated data, IDEA provides highly accurate estimates of total size and duration for a given outbreak when R0 is low or moderate, and also identifies turning points or new waves. When tested with an outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the model generates estimated incidence at the i+1th serial interval using data from the ith serial interval within an average of 20% of actual incidence. Conclusions and Significance: This model for communicable disease outbreaks provides rapid assessments of outbreak growth and public health interventions. Further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks will establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Johnes disease (JD), caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (MAP), occurs worldwide as chronic granulomatous enteritis of domestic and wild ruminants. To develop a cost effective vaccine, in a previous study we constructed an attenuated Salmonella strain that expressed a fusion product made up of partial fragments of MAP antigens (Ag85A, Ag85B and SOD) that imparted protection against challenge in a mouse model. In the current study we evaluated the differential immune response and protective efficacy of the Sal-Ag vaccine against challenge in a goat model as compared to the live attenuated vaccine MAP316F. PBMCs from goats vaccinated with Sal-Ag and challenged with MAP generated significantly lower levels of IFN-γ, following in vitro stimulation with either Antigen-mix or PPD jhonin, than PBMC from MAP316F vaccinated animals. Flow cytometric analysis showed the increase in IFN-γ correlated with a significantly higher level of proliferation of CD4, CD8 and γδT cells and an increased expression of CD25 and CD45R0 in MAP316F vaccinated animals as compared to control animals. Evaluation of a range of cytokines involved in Th1, Th2, Treg, and Th17 immune responses by quantitative PCR showed low levels of expression of Th1 (IFN-γ, IL-2, IL-12) and proinflammatory cytokines (IL-6, IL-8, IL-18, TNF-α) in the Sal-Ag immunized group. Significant levels of Th2 and anti-inflammatory cytokines transcripts (IL-4, IL-10, IL-13, TGF-β) were expressed but their level was low and with a pattern similar to the control group. Over all, Sal-Ag vaccine imparted partial protection that limited colonization in tissues of some animals upon challenge with wild type MAP but not to the level achieved with MAP316F. In conclusion, the data indicates that Sal-Ag vaccine induced only a low level of protective immunity that failed to limit the colonization of MAP in infected animals. Hence the Sal-Ag vaccine needs further refinement to increase its efficacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Canadian National Antiviral Stockpile (NAS) contains treatment for 17.5% of Canadians. This assumes no concurrent intervention strategies and no wastage due to non-influenza respiratory infections. A dynamic model can provide a mechanism to consider complex scenarios to support decisions regarding the optimal NAS size under uncertainty. Methods: We developed a dynamic model for pandemic influenza in Canada that is structured by age and risk to calculate the demand for antivirals to treat persons with pandemic influenza under a wide-range of scenarios that incorporated transmission dynamics, disease severity, and intervention strategies. The anticipated per capita number of acute respiratory infections due to viruses other than influenza was estimated for the full pandemic period from surveys based on criteria to identify potential respiratory infections. Results: Our results demonstrate that up to two thirds of the population could develop respiratory symptoms as a result of infection with a pandemic strain. In the case of perfect antiviral allocation, up to 39.8% of the population could request antiviral treatment. As transmission dynamics, severity and timing of the emergence of a novel influenza strain are unknown, the sensitivity analysis produced considerable variation in potential demand (median: 11%, IQR: 2–21%). If the next pandemic strain emerges in late spring or summer and a vaccine is available before the anticipated fall wave, the median prediction was reduced to 6% and IQR to 0.7–14%. Under the strategy of offering empirical treatment to all patients with influenza like symptoms who present for care, demand could increase to between 65 and 144%. Conclusions: The demand for antivirals during a pandemic is uncertain. Unless an accurate, timely and cost-effective test is available to identify influenza cases, demand for antivirals from persons infected with other respiratory viruses will be substantial and have a significant impact on the NAS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fusion inhibitors are a class of antiretroviral drugs used to prevent entry of HIV into host cells. Many of the fusion inhibitors being developed, including the drug enfuvirtide, are peptides designed to competitively inhibit the viral fusion protein gp41. With the emergence of drug resistance, there is an increased need for effective and unique alternatives within this class of antivirals. One such alternative is a class of cyclic, cationic, antimicrobial peptides known as θ-defensins, which are produced by many non-human primates and exhibit broad-spectrum antiviral and antibacterial activity. Currently, the θ-defensin analog RC-101 is being developed as a microbicide due to its specific antiviral activity, lack of toxicity to cells and tissues, and safety in animals. Understanding potential RC-101 resistance, and how resistance to other fusion inhibitors affects RC-101 susceptibility, is critical for future development. In previous studies, we identified a mutant, R5-tropic virus that had evolved partial resistance to RC-101 during in vitro selection. Here, we report that a secondary mutation in gp41 was found to restore replicative fitness, membrane fusion, and the rate of viral entry, which were compromised by an initial mutation providing partial RC-101 resistance. Interestingly, we show that RC-101 is effective against two enfuvirtide-resistant mutants, demonstrating the clinical importance of RC-101 as a unique fusion inhibitor. These findings both expand our understanding of HIV drug-resistance to diverse peptide fusion inhibitors and emphasize the significance of compensatory gp41 mutations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dearth of information obscures the true scale of the global illegal trade in wildlife. Herein, we introduce an automated web crawling surveillance system developed to monitor reports on illegally traded wildlife. A resource for enforcement officials as well as the general public, the freely available website, http://www.healthmap.org/wildlifetrade, provides a customizable visualization of worldwide reports on interceptions of illegally traded wildlife and wildlife products. From August 1, 2010 to July 31, 2011, publicly available English language illegal wildlife trade reports from official and unofficial sources were collected and categorized by location and species involved. During this interval, 858 illegal wildlife trade reports were collected from 89 countries. Countries with the highest number of reports included India (n = 146, 15.6%), the United States (n = 143, 15.3%), South Africa (n = 75, 8.0%), China (n = 41, 4.4%), and Vietnam (n = 37, 4.0%). Species reported as traded or poached included elephants (n = 107, 12.5%), rhinoceros (n = 103, 12.0%), tigers (n = 68, 7.9%), leopards (n = 54, 6.3%), and pangolins (n = 45, 5.2%). The use of unofficial data sources, such as online news sites and social networks, to collect information on international wildlife trade augments traditional approaches drawing on official reporting and presents a novel source of intelligence with which to monitor and collect news in support of enforcement against this threat to wildlife conservation worldwide.