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We consider statistical inference of trends in mean non-stationary models. A test statistic is proposed for the existence of structural breaks in trends. On the basis of a strong invariance principle of stationary processes, we construct simultaneous confidence bands with asymptotically correct nominal coverage probabilities. The results are applied to global warming temperature data and Nile river flow data. Our confidence band of the trend of the global warming temperature series supports the claim that the trend is increasing over the last 150 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of an unstructured covariance matrix is difficult because of its positive-definiteness constraint. This obstacle is removed by regressing each variable on its predecessors, so that estimation of a covariance matrix is shown to be equivalent to that of estimating a sequence of varying-coefficient and varying-order regression models. Our framework is similar to the use of increasing-order autoregressive models in approximating the covariance matrix or the spectrum of a stationary time series. As an illustration, we adopt Fan & Zhang's (2000) two-step estimation of functional linear models and propose nonparametric estimators of covariance matrices which are guaranteed to be positive definite. For parsimony a suitable order for the sequence of (auto)regression models is found using penalised likelihood criteria like AIC and BIC. Some asymptotic results for the local polynomial estimators of components of a covariance matrix are established. Two longitudinal datasets are analysed to illustrate the methodology. A simulation study reveals the advantage of the nonparametric covariance estimator over the sample covariance matrix for large covariance matrices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]