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Exploring the impact of economic modernization on carbon balance is an essential endeavor to achieve carbon neutrality and combat climate change. However, the spatial impact of economic modernization on carbon balance remains ambiguous. Therefore, this study aims to explore the spatial spillover effects of agricultural modernization, industrialization, and urbanization on carbon balance during the economic modernization process in China, taking 30 provinces and cities in China as examples from 2010 to 2021. This study utilizes the spatial Durbin model to derive the following results: In the past decade, the carbon balance ratio has shown a fluctuating and decreasing dynamic evolution trend. There is an increase in regions with serious carbon deficits. Further investigation into the spatial spillover effect of carbon balance unveils that for every 1% increase in the carbon balance ratio of a province, neighboring provinces experience a decrease of 0.833%. Additionally, the spatial spillover effects of the three modernizations in China on the carbon balance ratio behave differently. Agricultural modernization and urbanization demonstrate negative spatial spillover effects on the carbon balance in neighboring regions, while industrialization exerts a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the carbon balance of neighboring regions. Regarding control variables, the level of innovation solely contributes to local carbon balance realization without generating a trickle-down effect, whereas infrastructure development operates inversely. At the same time, there are differences in the spatial effects of agricultural modernization and industrialization on the carbon balance between the eastern region and the central and western regions. The study underscores the importance of economic modernization and development processes focusing on fostering synergistic growth between economic and environmental benefits within both local and neighboring areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's industrial sector generally relies on electricity as its main source of energy, and industrial production can be affected if there are problems with the electricity supply. In order to deal with the uncertain electricity supply and achieve the "dual carbon" target, the industrial sector needs to take effective measures to enhance carbon total factor productivity (CTFP). We use the biennial Luenberger productivity index (BLPI) to try to provide strategies for low-carbon industrial development in China. The results indicate that the overall CTFP of China's industrial sector showed an increasing trend from 2006 to 2019. Technology change was the main contributor to the change in CTFP, but fluctuations in efficiency change remained a challenge. Differences were observed between the light industry sector (LIS) and the heavy industry sector (HIS) in terms of changes in CTFP, with LIS showing more stable changes and HIS experiencing larger fluctuations. Most sub-sectors showed increased CTFP during the sample period. R&D investment and R&D personnel have a positive impact on CTFP, while energy structure is found to hinder CTFP. According to the research results of this study, we offer the corresponding policy implications. This study is the first to explore the balance between low-carbon goals and industrial production from the perspective of improving CTFP, providing a new viewpoint on the contributions of technological innovation to solving socio-economic issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]