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Woody plant encroachment is an ongoing global issue. In the Southern Great Plains of the United States, the rapid encroachment and coalescence of woody plants are transforming herbaceous-dominated rangelands into woodlands with a detrimental impact on water quality and quantity. In this study, we conducted modeling simulations to assess how converting juniper (Juniperus virginiana) woodland and low to moderately productive grassland into switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) biomass production system would affect streamflow and sediment yields in the Lower Cimarron River, Oklahoma. First, the grassland areas in the basin were divided into productivity classes suitable for rangeland activities based on the soil productivity index. Next, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to develop the basin hydrologic model, calibrated and validated for streamflow in five gaging stations with a percent bias of <10%, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency index of >0.76, and R2 of >0.77. Then, the model was used to simulate evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow, groundwater recharge, and sediment loads under different land use conversion scenarios. Results showed that converting existing juniper woodlands, ~4% of the basin, to switchgrass had limited impacts on the water budget and sediment yield. A hypothetical scenario of converting low to moderately productive rangeland to switchgrass increased annual ET by 2.6%, with a decrease in streamflow by 10.8% and a reduction in sediment yield by 39.2% compared to the baseline model. Results indicated that switchgrass could be considered a potential land use alternative to address the juniper encroached grassland with minimal loss in streamflow but a substantial reduction in sediment yield in the southcentral region of the Great Plains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]