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Seasonally snow‐covered catchments in the western United States supply water to growing populations as both annual snowmelt‐driven streamflow and multi‐year groundwater recharge. Although interannual variability in streamflow is driven largely by precipitation, runoff efficiency (the ratio of streamflow to precipitation) in individual catchments varies by 50% or more. Recent work suggests that interannual variability in groundwater storage, inferred from winter baseflow, is a primary control on runoff efficiency, highlighting a need to quantify both the time scales on which groundwater storage varies and the hydro‐climatic drivers of storage. Using over a century of daily stream discharge data from 10 seasonally snow‐covered catchments in northern Utah, we find that temporal variability in winter baseflow, an index of groundwater storage, measured from mean daily January discharge, exhibits a 2–5‐ and 12–15‐year periodicity, driven by regional precipitation patterns and snowmelt dynamics. Specifically, multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling using antecedent hydro‐climatic variables demonstrates that winter baseflow (groundwater storage) was positively related to 3–4 years of antecedent annual precipitation, negatively related to the previous year's mean annual temperature, and positively related to 1–4 antecedent years of snowmelt rate and duration. Because antecedent baseflow (groundwater storage) is strongly related to runoff efficiency, these results suggest that more frequent and longer droughts in a future climate will reduce surface water supplies faster than otherwise expected. More broadly, these results highlight the importance of including the influence of antecedent climate on groundwater storage when modeling and managing water supplies from seasonally snow‐covered catchments. Key Points: Interannual changes in groundwater storage inferred from baseflow in 10 headwater catchments exhibit coherent 2–5 and 12–15 year periodicityInterannual variability in groundwater storage is related to 1–4 years of antecedent precipitation (+) snowmelt rate (+) and temperature (−)Groundwater storage in warmer/drier catchments is related to longer periods of antecedent climate than cooler/wetter catchments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We utilized 251 measurements from a recently developed automated seepage meter (ASM) in streambeds in the Nebraska Sand Hills, USA to investigate the small‐scale spatial variability of groundwater seepage flux (q) and the ability of the ASM to estimate mean q at larger scales. Small‐scale spatial variability of q was analyzed in five dense arrays, each covering an area of 13.5–28.0 m2 (169 total point measurements). Streambed vertical hydraulic conductivity (K) was also measured. Results provided: (a) high‐resolution contour plots of q and K, (b) anisotropic semi‐variograms demonstrating greater correlation scales of q and K along the stream length than across the stream width, and (c) the number of rows of points (perpendicular to streamflow) needed to represent the groundwater flux of areas up to 28.0 m2. The findings suggest that representative streambed measurements are best conducted perpendicular to streamflow to accommodate larger seepage flux heterogeneity in this direction and minimize sampling redundancy. To investigate the ASM's ability to produce accurate mean q at larger scales, seepage meters were deployed in four stream reaches (170–890 m), arranged in three to six transects (three to eight points each) per reach across the channel. In each reach, the mean seepage flux from ASMs was compared to the seepage flux from bromide tracer dilution. Agreement between the two methods indicates the viability of a modest number of seepage meter measurements to determine the overall groundwater flux to the stream and can guide sampling for solutes and environmental tracers. Plain Language Summary: Surface waters can be windows into groundwater aquifers. When conditions are right, groundwater is pushed up through the streambed and into the stream bringing with it natural and artificial solutes that are used as tracers for aquifer evaluation. Therefore, measurements of groundwater seepage fluxes are important. Utilizing a new tool (Solomon et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026983) for point measurements of groundwater flux (over an area of about 10 cm2), this study makes an unprecedented number of direct discharge measurements in the Sand Hills, Nebraska, USA in both (a) small areas (13.5–28.0 m2) of streambed and (b) along a much larger (170–890 m) stream segments. The results indicate that a modest number of discharge measurements in transects perpendicular to streamflow may accurately represent the groundwater flux in both small sections of stream and even in larger stream sections up to 890 m long. This means that if groundwater is discharging into the stream, the average seepage flux from the groundwater aquifer over the entire stream segment can be obtained through sampling a relatively small number of streambed locations. This potentially provides water resource managers valuable information on fluxes of both groundwater contaminants and age‐dating tracers without installing resource‐demanding wells. Key Points: A recently developed seepage meter produced high‐resolution maps of groundwater flux through streambeds in the Nebraska Sand Hills, USAAnisotropic semi‐variograms suggest representative point sampling is best conducted in rows of evenly spaced points across the stream widthGroundwater flux measured at 3–6 channel transects of seepage meters (3–8 points each) estimated total flux in reaches up to 890 m long [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accelerating warming, changes in the amount, timing, and form of precipitation, and rapidly growing populations highlight the need for improved predictions of snowmelt‐driven water supplies. Although decadal‐scale trends in reduced streamflow are common, minimal progress has been made in improving streamflow prediction on the annual time scales on which management decisions are made. Efficient allocation of dwindling supplies requires incorporating rapidly evolving knowledge of streamflow generation into parsimonious models capable of improving prediction on seasonal, annual, and multiyear time scales of water resource management. We address this need using long‐term streamflow and climate records in 12 catchments averaging 90 years of observations and totaling more than 1,080 site‐years of data. These catchments experience similar regional climate forcing each year, but are diverse enough to represent broad ranges in precipitation, temperature, vegetation, and geology characteristic of much of the western US. We find that January baseflow across all catchments exhibits a coherent, quasi‐decadal periodicity that presumably is indicative of groundwater response to decadal climate. Although the direct contribution of this discharge to streamflow is small, interannual variability in groundwater discharge is a consistently strong predictor of runoff efficiency suggesting that antecedent groundwater storage alters precipitation routing to streamflow. Incorporating antecedent groundwater storage with precipitation and melt dynamics in multiple linear regression models reduces uncertainty in annual runoff from approximately 40% to <5%. These simple models, using readily available data, provide immediately useful tools for water managers to anticipate and respond to streamflow variability on time scales of 1 to 10 years. Plain Language Summary: Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of drought in western North America highlighting the need to improve how water supplies are managed. Although the issues are complex, one of the largest challenges in efficient and equitable water resource management is the high spatial and temporal variability in runoff efficiency. Runoff efficiency, also termed water yield, is the fraction of annual precipitation that exits a catchment as surface water discharge. These values vary from less than 20% to greater than 70% across the western US; more importantly for water supply is that interannual water yield from any one catchment may vary ±30%. This variability is highlighted by Spring runoff 2020 in the upper Colorado River Basin where annual snowfall was close to average but annual runoff was 50%–60% of normal. Our results demonstrate that a major driver of variability in runoff efficiency is a regionally coherent, quasi‐decadal periodicity in groundwater storage reflected in mid‐winter baseflow. Incorporating interannual storage variability into a statistical model of streamflow reduces uncertainty in water yield by roughly half. Importantly, the ability to quantify storage in mid‐winter allows resource managers to anticipate and plan for annual water supply months before snowmelt begins. Key Points: Spatially coherent temporal patterns in winter discharge indicate quasi‐decadal periodicity in groundwater storage in headwater catchmentsThis variability in antecedent catchment water storage is a primary determinant of water yield during the subsequent spring snowmeltVariability in mid‐winter baseflow allows water managers to anticipate and plan for the upcoming runoff season months before melt begins [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]