Search

In recent decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass through glacier retreat and ice flow acceleration. This mass loss is linked with variations in submarine melt, yet existing ocean models are either coarse global simulations focused on decadal‐scale variability or fine‐scale simulations for process‐based investigations. Here, we unite these scales with a framework to downscale from a global state estimate (15 km) into a regional model (3 km) that resolves circulation on the continental shelf. We further downscale into a fjord‐scale model (500 m) that resolves circulation inside fjords and quantifies melt. We demonstrate this approach in Scoresby Sund, East Greenland, and find that interannual variations in submarine melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier induced by ocean temperature variability are consistent with the decadal changes in glacier ice dynamics. This study provides a framework by which coarse‐resolution models can be refined to quantify glacier submarine melt for future ice sheet projections. Plain Language Summary: Over the past several decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing ice and contributing to sea‐level rise. About half of this ice loss is induced by melt that occurs where glaciers meet the ocean. Using coarse‐scale ocean models that simulate circulation around the globe, previous studies have noted a strong link between ocean temperature and enhanced glacier ice loss. However, due to the small scale of Greenland's fjords, coarse models are unable to directly quantify circulation in these fjords and melt on submerged glaciers. In this study, we develop a new framework to "zoom in" on a fjord, using high‐resolution models driven by larger coarse‐resolution models. In this approach, we simulate melt on one of Greenland's biggest glaciers and find that periods of higher melt coincide with more ice loss as observed from satellites. Since this framework is adaptable to other regions, it could also be used to simulate melt on other glaciers and support estimates of future sea‐level rise. Key Points: Subsurface temperature variability is simulated in a narrow fjord network using regional models downscaled from a global state estimateModeled increases in ocean melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier coincide with the onset of acceleration in 2005 and retreat and thinning in 2011Model variations in shelf‐to‐fjord ocean properties match with observations, providing a basis to estimate ocean forcing in ice projections [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The glaciers of North Greenland are hosting enough ice to raise sea level by 2.1 m, and have long considered to be stable. This part of Greenland is buttressed by the last remaining ice shelves of the ice sheet. Here, we show that since 1978, ice shelves in North Greenland have lost more than 35% of their total volume, three of them collapsing completely. For the floating ice shelves that remain we observe a widespread increase in ice shelf mass losses, that are dominated by enhanced basal melting rates. Between 2000 and 2020, there was a widespread increase in basal melt rates that closely follows a rise in the ocean temperature. These glaciers are showing a direct dynamical response to ice shelf changes with retreating grounding lines and increased ice discharge. These results suggest that, under future projections of ocean thermal forcing, basal melting rates will continue to rise or remain at high level, which may have dramatic consequences for the stability of Greenlandic glaciers. North Greenland ice shelves have lost more than a third of their masses, thinning dramatically from below due to increased ocean temperatures. In response, grounding lines have retreated and the amount of ice discharged into the ocean has increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We mapped the terminus position for every marine‐terminating glacier in the Northern Hemisphere for 2000, 2010, and 2020, including the Greenland Ice Sheet, to provide the first complete measure of their variability. In total, these 1,704 glaciers lost an average of 389.7 ± 1.6 km2 a−1 (total 7,527 ± 31 km2) from 2000 to 2020 with 123 glaciers becoming no longer marine‐terminating over this period. Overall, 85.3% of glaciers retreated, 2.5% advanced, and the remaining 12.3% did not change outside of uncertainty limits. Outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet are responsible for 61.9% of total area loss, although their rate of retreat was 34% less in 2010–2020 than 2000–2010. Glaciers with the largest area loss terminate in ice shelves or ice tongues, are surge‐type, have an unstable basal geometry, or have an unusually wide calving margin. Plain Language Summary: North of the equator, 1,704 glaciers touched the ocean in 2000. Here, we present the first analysis to document the frontal position of every one of these glaciers in 2000, 2010, and 2020. We found that 85.3% retreated and are now reduced in area. Only 2.5% of glaciers advanced or increased in area. The remaining 12.3% did not change within uncertainty limits. Total area losses were 389.7 ± 1.6 km2 per year (total 7,527 ± 31 km2) over the 20‐year period. Glaciers flowing from the Greenland Ice Sheet accounted for over 60% of total area losses. We found wide variations in the response of glaciers to similar changes in air and ocean temperature and sea ice concentrations, showing that environmental conditions alone cannot explain why some glaciers retreated more than others. Instead, unique glacier characteristics are the most important factor in controlling the variability of terminus retreat. Glaciers with floating ice at their front (ice shelves or ice tongues), those that undergo periodic changes in their flow velocity (surges), those which have a weak connection to their beds, and glaciers that are unusually wide, experienced the largest area loss from 2000 to 2020. Key Points: There were 1704 marine‐terminating glaciers in 2000 in the Northern Hemisphere, of which 85.3% retreated and 2.5% advanced from 2000 to 2020Tidewater glaciers lost a total area of 7,527 ± 31 km2 from 2000 to 2020, with the Greenland Ice Sheet responsible for 61.9% of total lossesVariations in retreat are best explained by glacier characteristics: ice shelves/tongues, surging, basal geometry, and calving width [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The melting of marine terminating glaciers in Northeast Greenland is a visible sign that our climate is changing. This melt has been partly attributed to changes in oceanic heat fluxes, particularly warming of Atlantic Water (AW). Yet our understanding of the interaction between glaciers and the ocean is limited by the length of instrumental records. Here, we present a multi-proxy study (benthic foraminifera assemblages, CT scans, grain size, XRF, and stable isotope data) on core DA17-NG-ST08-092G, located 90 km east of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS). Whilst the exact timing of deglaciation is uncertain, it is certain to have occurred at least as early as 12.5 ka cal BP, and likely before 13.4 ka cal BP. The inflow of AW may have played a role in the seemingly early deglaciation on the Northeast Greenland continental shelf. Following deglaciation, the site was overlain by an ice shelf, with AW and Polar Water (PW) flowing beneath until 11.2 ka cal BP. The NEGIS briefly retreated westwards between 11.2 and 10.8 ka cal BP before our site returned to glacier-proximal conditions dominated by colder subsurface water and persistent AW flowing beneath (10.8–9.6 ka cal BP). Between 9.6 and 7.9 ka cal BP the NEGIS retreated westwards; there was a continued presence of AW and PW at the site. A drastic shift in ocean circulation occurred at 7.9 ka cal BP, with a decline in AW flow and dominance of PW flowing beneath perennial sea ice. During the Late Holocene, there was return of AW and likely breakup of perennial sea ice. • Multi-proxy reconstruction on the Northeast Greenland continental shelf. • Deglaciation occurred before 12.5 ka cal BP, possibly even before 13.4 ka cal BP. • Atlantic water inflow likely played a key role in deglaciation in this region. • Drastic decline in Atlantic water inflow occurred at 7.9 ka cal BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]