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Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis; AR6, WG1, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK. 2021 6 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They conclude that a future powered by RE may be possible but caution that future global population growth [[23]] will make such a future progressively more difficult to attain - or sustain - into the future. The first report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was produced in 1990 and warned of the dangers of global climate change. The situation is bad but could worsen if the drivers of climate change (CC), greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), and land-use changes, including net deforestation, are not rapidly reduced. [Extracted from the article]

While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A key task in WGIII is to assess the global mean temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the challenge that the emissions scenarios from different integrated assessment models (IAMs) come with different sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage and cannot all be assessed consistently by complex Earth system models. In this work, we describe the "climate-assessment" workflow and its methods, including infilling of missing emissions and emissions harmonisation as applied to 1202 mitigation scenarios in AR6 WGIII. We evaluate the global mean temperature projections and effective radiative forcing (ERF) characteristics of climate emulators FaIRv1.6.2 and MAGICCv7.5.3 and use the CICERO simple climate model (CICERO-SCM) for sensitivity analysis. We discuss the implied overshoot severity of the mitigation pathways using overshoot degree years and look at emissions and temperature characteristics of scenarios compatible with one possible interpretation of the Paris Agreement. We find that the lowest class of emissions scenarios that limit global warming to "1.5 ∘ C (with a probability of greater than 50 %) with no or limited overshoot" includes 97 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3 and 203 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3 results, "limited overshoot" typically implies exceedance of median temperature projections of up to about 0.1 ∘ C for up to a few decades before returning to below 1.5 ∘ C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios in this category that comply with three criteria for being "Paris-compatible", including net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, median temperatures decline by about 0.3–0.4 ∘ C after peaking at 1.5–1.6 ∘ C in 2035–2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used for SR1.5 and discuss their implications. This article also introduces a "climate-assessment" Python package which allows for fully reproducing the IPCC AR6 WGIII temperature assessment. This work provides a community tool for assessing the temperature outcomes of emissions pathways and provides a basis for further work such as extending the workflow to include downscaling of climate characteristics to a regional level and calculating impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

GLO:65TF/01dec22:wea4331-fig-0002.jpg PHOTO (COLOR): 2 (a) Emission pathways and (b) temperature outcomes for scenarios with 2030 emissions less than 2030 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) (grey) and equal or greater than the assessed NDCs (red) for FaIR simulations. gl Pathways with higher 2030 emissions tend to require more rapid emission cuts post 2030 than those in scenarios with early emission reductions, and on average require net negative emissions to be achieved earlier in the century. Scenarios with 2030 emissions less than the 2030 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are highlighted using filled triangles and those that are equal to or greater than the assessed NDCs are shown by plus signs. gl Discussion The analyses presented here consider year 2030 emission pledges in the context of available global emission pathways from the SR15 database. One of the COP26 aims was to keep 1.5°C within reach by asking countries to come forward with ambitious year 2030 emission reductions targets to further pursue the necessary action to meet the Paris climate targets. The COP26 emission pledges are approximately in the middle of the range of 2030 emissions considered in the SR15 database and are lower than the pre COP26 Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) for 2030 from IEA (53 GtCO SB 2 sb e, IEA, [16]). [Extracted from the article]

When only higher-confidence net-zero targets are included on top of current policies (case B), global warming is projected to increase to 2.4°C by 2100 (range due to emissions projection uncertainties: 1.7° to 3.0°C) - missing global climate goals by a long way. INSIGHTS Clobal climate policy is undergoing a rite of passage. Global warming projections mirror this uncertainty, with best-estimate emissions leading to a median temperature projection for the year 2100 of 2.6°C, with a range of 1.7° to 3.0°C, depending on how policies are assumed to continue after 2030 (see the figure) (table S6). [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the significance of the COP28 UAE Climate and Health Declaration, which was supported by 123 countries at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The declaration expresses concerns about the negative impacts of climate change on health and emphasizes the importance of a global response. Additionally, a consortium of organizations pledged $1 billion to advance understanding of climate change and health and promote adaptation and mitigation interventions. The article highlights the need for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and strengthening health systems to address climate-sensitive health outcomes. It also emphasizes the importance of research, monitoring, and evaluation to inform strategies and policies for increasing health system resilience. [Extracted from the article]

The Australian Institute for the Conservation of Cultural Material has published a range of resources that promote environmentally aware collection care and management practices including climate-specific Environmental Guidelines, the Sustainable Collections wiki and the Climate Adaptation resource. The Climate Adaptation resource provides access to 180 maps illustrating potential future climate scenarios for Australia in 2030 and 2090, using the two Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These maps were produced as part of research undertaken in 2019–2020 by Pagliarino and Meredith and supplement those published in volume 41 (issue 1) of the AICCM Bulletin. The release of updated climate change projections in the Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis – precipitated a review of the Climate Adaptation resource to confirm the continued veracity of the maps. This paper provides the results of that assessment, which confirmed the resource's ongoing accuracy and currency. In addition, the paper includes discussion of the new IPCC future climate scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which supersede RCP, and a summary of the state of the climate in Australia with warming, humidity, fire, weather and sea level rise investigated in more detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the IPCC's physical science report usually assesses a handful of future scenarios, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Working Group III report (AR6 WGIII) on climate mitigation assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A key task is to assess the global-mean temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the challenge that the emission scenarios from different integrated assessment models come with different sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage and cannot all be assessed consistently by complex Earth System Models. In this work, we describe the "climate assessment" workflow and its methods, including infilling of missing emissions and emissions harmonisation as applied to 1,202 mitigation scenarios in AR6 WGIII. We evaluate the global-mean temperature projections and effective radiative forcing characteristics (ERF) of climate emulators FaIRv1.6.2, MAGICCv7.5.3, and CICERO-SCM, discuss overshoot severity of the mitigation pathways using overshoot degree years, and look at an interpretation of compatibility with the Paris Agreement. We find that the lowest class of emission scenarios that limit global warming to "1.5°C (with a probability of greater than 50%) with no or limited overshoot" includes 90 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3, and 196 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3 results, "limited overshoot" typically implies exceedance of median temperature projections of up to about 0.1°C for up to a few decades, before returning to below 1.5°C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios of this category that comply with three criteria for being "Paris-compatible", including net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, are projected to see median temperatures decline by about 0.3-0.4°C after peaking at 1.5-1.6°C in 2035-2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used for SR1.5 and discuss the implications. This article also introduces a 'climate-assessment' Python package which allows for fully reproducing the IPCC AR6 WGIII temperature assessment. This work can be the start of a community tool for assessing the temperature outcomes related to emissions pathways, and potential further work extending the workflow from emissions to global climate by downscaling climate characteristics to a regional level and calculating impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I The i Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the enormously detailed quadrennial literature review of climate research that is the Panel's principal output, is at an advanced stage of preparation, with the final Synthesis Report scheduled to be issued in September 2022. B I From Working Group I (pp. 14-15) i b : Compared to 1850-1900, global surface temperature averaged over 2081-2100 is very likely to be higher by 1.0°C to 1.8°C under the very low GHG emissions scenario considered (SSP1-1.9), by 2.1°C to 3.5°C in the intermediate GHG emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and by 3.3°C to 5.7°C under the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). [Extracted from the article]

The article focuses on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report Six (AR6) Working Group I (WG1) report focus on the assessment of the global climate-carbon system with implications for adaptation and mitigation action in southern Africa. It mentions climate change attribution science is capable of quantifying the role of human influence in the occurrence of individual weather events.

The Royal Meteorological Society, in partnership with the Grantham Institute, hosted a virtual event on 15 September 2021 to mark the release of the sixth major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (AR6) (IPCC, 2021a). She provided a guide to the new scenarios, the use of emulators (simple climate models that emulate Earth System Model results) in AR6, and the inclusion of global climate indicators. She explained the narrowed uncertainty range for climate sensitivity and addressed the crossing time of 1.5 degC, highlighting the agreement between AR6 and SR1.5 (IPCC, 2019). [Extracted from the article]

However, although historically their emissions have been great, most of the developed economies decoupled their carbon emissions and economic growth with the decarbonizing industry, and peaked their emissions by the first decade of this century [[2]]. Although theoretically these countries emit much less CO SB 2 sb , they appear to be more sensitive and susceptible to climate change, and it is very difficult for academics to conduct thorough studies in order to understand their emission baselines and track their climate change mitigation efforts. Therefore, their work advocates international assistance for these emerging emitters and reveals the important role of historically major emitters in addressing global climate change, not only to provide technical and financial assistance to reduce emissions, but also to prioritize their own emission reduction agenda. [Extracted from the article]

Unlike GHGs most air pollutants have short lifetimes in the atmosphere (days to weeks) and their concentration is largely maintained by current emissions. Concern about climate change is mainly due to the build-up of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere, resulting from human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Air pollutants can react chemically with each other to form secondary pollutants such as low-level ozone, itself a GHG. [Extracted from the article]