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Copyright of Antipode is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The panel approach with fixed effects and nonlinear weather effects has become a popular method to uncover weather impacts on economic outcomes, but its ability to capture long‐run climatic adaptation remains unclear. Building upon a framework proposed by McIntosh and Schlenker (2006), this paper identifies empirical conditions under which the nonlinear panel approach can approximate a long‐run response to climate. When these conditions fail, the obtained relationship may still be interpretable as a weighted average of underlying short‐run and long‐run responses. We use this decomposition to revisit recently published climate impact estimates. For spatially large panels, the estimated temperature–outcome relationship mostly reflects the long‐run climatic response; this is not so for precipitation. We find some evidence of long‐run climatic adaptation for crop yield outcomes in the United States and France. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Plants, People, Planet is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Aim: Bird and tree species distributions will shift along with future climatic conditions through direct effects related to species responses to bioclimatic variables. In addition, tree species composition changes should indirectly drive changes in forest bird habitats. Here, we predicted the effects of climate changes on the amount of reachable habitat for forest birds and teased apart the role of the indirect effects. Location: France. Methods: We projected tree and bird species distributions (2020 and 2050) using generalized additive models which accounted for climatic conditions at a large scale (France) and local environmental conditions at regional scale. The projections combined two scenarios of climate changes (RCP 2.6 and 8.5) and two scenarios of forest management (increase in either deciduous or coniferous stands). We modelled the amount of reachable habitat with landscape graphs and the equivalent connectivity index (EC) for five birds associated to the main forest types of the study area. To differentiate the sources of EC change between 2020 and 2050, we compared two future landscape graphs including only the indirect effect, or the direct and indirect effects of climate changes. Results: For birds with low and intermediate thermal maxima, climate‐based distributions were nearly stable over time (absence of direct effects), EC change was only attributed to indirect effects. In contrast, for bird species with high thermal maximum, EC change was mostly driven by direct effects (more favourable climatic conditions) and little by indirect effects. Main conclusions: Using an innovative modelling framework that bind species distribution and connectivity models with climate and land use changes in forest, we showed that EC dynamics could be completely due to climate‐driven changes in tree species composition. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the indirect effects of climate changes, especially in forests where major shifts in tree species composition are expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change affects the life cycle of many species. Yet, responses to yearly variation of weather can either help species track optimal conditions or be maladaptive.We analysed phenological data of 46,479 pine processionary moths (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) during 15 years along an altitudinal gradient in southern France. These larvae were sampled in situ and allowed to pupate in a common garden at lower elevation.Individuals originating from higher elevation emerged earlier than those sampled at low elevation, which suggests local adaptation. Yearly variations in temperature also affected phenology. Warm springs caused an earlier adult emergence, while autumn temperatures had an opposite effect. Environmental cues could thus induce contradictory plastic responses.Synchronization mechanisms were identified. Variability in the duration of the pupal phase is a key parameter to synchronize adult emergence in spite of different larval development rates that only marginally influenced emergence dynamics. Semivoltine individuals experiencing prolonged diapause were synchronized with univoltine individuals emerging the same year.These data highlight some contradiction in the effect of spatial versus temporal variations of the temperature on adult emergence. This suggests that phenological responses to the current climate change cannot easily be anticipated by space‐for‐time substitution designs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the influence of climate change, wildfire regimes are expected to intensify and expand to new areas, increasing threats to natural and socioeconomic assets. We explore the environmental and economic implications for the forest sector of climate‐induced changes in wildfire regimes. To retain genericity while considering local determinants, we focus on the regional level and take Mediterranean France as an example. Coupling a bioeconomic forest sector model and a model of wildfire activity, we perform spatially explicit simulations under various levels of radiative forcing. By using a probabilistic framework, we also assess the propagation of several sources of uncertainty to the forest sector, considering both climate‐induced uncertainty and the intrinsic stochasticity of the fire process. By the end of the century, summer burned areas increase by up to 55%, causing moderate losses of merchantable timber and forest carbon stocks, with cascading impacts for industrial activities and climate mitigation in the forest sector. Implications for industries remain limited, but we observe price increases, especially for softwoods, as well as spatially differentiated changes in producer welfare. Inter‐annual fluctuations explain most of uncertainty in wildfire activity, but their impacts on the forest sector are quickly dampened. Over time, owing to the cumulative nature of wildfire impacts on forest resources, uncertainty related to climate warming, climate models' response and stochasticity intrinsic to the wildfire phenomenon strongly increase in relative importance. Results reassert the need to consider multiple futures in prospective assessments, including uncertainty inherent to natural processes, often omitted in large‐scale economic assessments. Plain Language Summary: Forest fires in the Mediterranean are expected to become more numerous, more intense, and to reach new areas due to climate change. Forest resources, carbon sequestrated in forests, as well as economic activities related to forestry, are threatened by this evolution. This article focuses on Southern France and uses large‐scale model simulations to explore these dynamics. We show that burned areas in forests may increase by more than half by 2100, leading to a decrease in forest resources (timber) by up to 5%. Besides, prices for wood products may increase, especially for softwoods, with implications for the welfare of timber producers and consumers. Moreover, these results are heterogenous across space, and areas to the south and to the west are more gravely affected. However, these trends come with relatively large uncertainties. We show that uncertainties concerning the evolution of forest fires themselves are largely due to annual variability in weather conditions. On the contrary, uncertainties concerning economic activity in forestry are mostly due to the unknown future evolution of greenhouse gas emissions and to differences in climate models functioning. Our results reassert the need to consider several possible sources of uncertainty in long‐term prospective assessments. Key Points: Models project an intensification of wildfire regimes in southern France, losses of forest resources and carbon, disturbances to forestryUncertainty in projections is dominated by annual fluctuations for wildfire activity, by choice of climate model/scenario for forestryProspective bioeconomic assessments need to consider multiple possible futures but also stochasticity intrinsic to disturbance processes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in sedimentary profiles and stratigraphic architecture over time in lake basins are shown to be relevant markers of climate changes in terrestrial palaeoenvironments. The stratigraphic architecture of the Priabonian (late Eocene)–early Rupelian (early Oligocene) Alès–Saint‐Chaptes–Issirac saline lake system has been reconstructed from the sedimentological, biostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic analysis of outcrops and well cores. As a function of the inflow–evaporation balance, three distinct depositional models have been proposed for the Priabonian Alès–Saint‐Chaptes–Issirac lake system which is characterized by both fault‐controlled and low‐angle ramp‐like margins: (i) freshwater to oligohaline lake; (ii) oligohaline to mesohaline closed‐lake; and (iii) hypersaline, evaporitic closed‐lake. Two major stages of lake spreading (possibly middle Priabonian and late Priabonian–early Rupelian) separated by two stages of significant lake closure represented by evaporite succession in the Alès Basin depocentre (middle to late Priabonian) have been evidenced. Regional tectonics and climate induced changes in inflow–evaporation balance of the lake and controlled the development of transgressive–regressive cycles with calcium‐sulphate sedimentation during regression in the lake depocentre (Alès Basin) and during early transgression in lake margins (Saint‐Chaptes and Issirac basins). The correlation between the palaeohydrological cycles inferred for the Alès–Saint‐Chaptes–Issirac lake system and the regional climate changes of Priabonian stage, prior to the Eocene–Oligocene transition, strongly suggests that climate significantly impacted the nature of lacustrine depositional models and the depositional architecture of Palaeogene, syn‐rift, saline lake basins from Western Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seedling recruitment is a bottleneck for population dynamics and range shift. The vital rates linked to recruitment by seed are impacted by amplified drought induced by climate change. In the Mediterranean region, autumn and winter seedling emergence and mortality may have strong impact on the overall seedling recruitment. However, studies focusing on the temporal dynamic of recruitment during these seasons are rare. This study was performed in a deciduous Mediterranean oak forest located in southern France and quantifies the impact of amplified drought conditions on autumn and winter seedling emergence and seedling mortality rates of two herbaceous plant species with meso-Mediterranean and supra-Mediterranean distribution (respectively, Silene italica and Silene nutans). Seedlings were followed from October 2019 to May 2020 in both undisturbed and disturbed plots where the litter and the aboveground biomass have been removed to create open microsites. Amplified drought conditions reduced seedling emergence and increased seedling mortality for both Silene species but these negative effects were dependent on soil disturbance conditions. Emergence of S. italica decreased only in undisturbed plots (-7%) whereas emergence of S. nutans decreased only in disturbed plots (-10%) under amplified drought conditions. The seedling mortality rate of S. italica was 51% higher under amplified drought conditions in undisturbed plots while that of S. nutans was 38% higher in disturbed plots. Aridification due to lower precipitation in the Mediterranean region will negatively impact the seedling recruitment of these two Silene species. Climate change effects on early vital rates may likely have major negative impacts on the overall population dynamic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sandy shorelines morphodynamics responds to a myriad of processes interacting at different spatial and temporal scales, making shoreline predictions challenging. Shoreline modeling inherits uncertainties from the primary driver boundary conditions (e.g., sea‐level rise and wave forcing) as well as uncertainties related to model assumptions and/or misspecifications of the physics. This study presents an analysis of the uncertainties associated with future shoreline evolution at the cross‐shore transport dominated sandy beach of Truc Vert (France) over the 21st century. We explicitly resolve wave‐driven shoreline change using two different equilibrium modeling approaches to provide new insight into the contributions of sea‐level rise, and free model parameters uncertainties on future shoreline change in the frame of climate change. Based on a Global Sensitivity Analysis, shoreline response during the first half of the century is found to be mainly sensitive to the equilibrium model parameters, with the influence of sea‐level rise emerging in the second half of the century (∼2050 or later), under several simulated scenarios. The results reveal that the seasonal and interannual variability of the predicted shoreline position is sensitive to the choice of the wave‐driven equilibrium‐based model. Finally, we discuss the importance of the chronology of wave events in future shoreline change, calling for more continuous wave projection time series to further address uncertainties in future wave conditions. Our contribution demonstrates that unmitigated climate change can result in shoreline retreat of several tens of meters by 2100, even for sectors that have been stable or slightly accreting over the last century. Key Points: Ensemble‐based simulations of future shoreline evolution to 2100, including sea‐level rise driven erosion, are performed and analyzedFuture shoreline projections uncertainties are initially controlled by modeling assumptions and after 2060 by sea‐level rise uncertaintiesThe choice of wave‐driven equilibrium modeling approach and incident wave chronology are critical to short/mid‐term shoreline projections [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]