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Simple Summary: A 90-day mortality predictive model for curative gastric cancer resection based on the Spanish EURECCA Esophagogastric Cancer database was externally validated using the GASTRODATA registry. The externally validated model showed a modestly worse performance compared to the original model, nevertheless maintaining its discriminating ability in clinical practice. Background: Radical gastrectomy remains the main treatment for gastric cancer, despite its high mortality. A clinical predictive model of 90-day mortality (90DM) risk after gastric cancer surgery based on the Spanish EURECCA registry database was developed using a matching learning algorithm. We performed an external validation of this model based on data from an international multicenter cohort of patients. Methods: A cohort of patients from the European GASTRODATA database was selected. Demographic, clinical, and treatment variables in the original and validation cohorts were compared. The performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) for a random forest model. Results: The validation cohort included 2546 patients from 24 European hospitals. The advanced clinical T- and N-category, neoadjuvant therapy, open procedures, total gastrectomy rates, and mean volume of the centers were significantly higher in the validation cohort. The 90DM rate was also higher in the validation cohort (5.6%) vs. the original cohort (3.7%). The AUC in the validation model was 0.716. Conclusion: The externally validated model for predicting the 90DM risk in gastric cancer patients undergoing gastrectomy with curative intent continues to be as useful as the original model in clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we used Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI) data, Sentinel-2 imagery and ancillary data to develop models that estimate forest variables for major commercial timber plantations in northern Spain. We carried out the analysis in two stages. In the first stage, we considered plots with and without sub-meter geolocation, three pre-processing levels for the Sentinel-2 images and two machine learning algorithms. In most cases, geometrically, radiometrically, atmospherically and topographically (L2A-ATC) corrected images and the random forest algorithm provided the best results, with topographic correction producing a greater gain in model accuracy as the average slope of the plots increased. Our results did not show any clear impact of the geolocation accuracy of SNFI plots on results, suggesting that the usual geolocation accuracy of SNFI plots is adequate for developing forest models with data obtained from passive sensors. In the second stage, we used all plots together with L2A-ATC-corrected images to select five different groups of predictor variables in a cumulative process to determine the influence of each group of variables in the final RF model predictions. Yield variables produced the best fits, with R2 ranging from 0.39 to 0.46 (RMSE% ranged from 44.6% to 61.9%). Although the Sentinel-2-based estimates obtained in this research are less precise than those previously obtained with Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) data for the same species and region, they are unbiased (Bias% was always below 1%). Therefore, accurate estimates for one hectare are expected, as they are obtained by averaging the values of 100 pixels (model resolution of 10 m pixel−1) with an expected error compensation. Moreover, the use of these models will overcome the temporal resolution problem associated with the previous ALS-based models and will enable annual updates of forest timber resource estimates to be obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explored, for the first time, the drivers shaping large fire size and high severity of forest fires classified as level-2 in Spain, which pose a great danger to the wildland–urban interface. Specifically, we examined how bottom-up (fuel type and topography) and top-down (fire weather) controls shaped level-2 fire behavior through a Random Forest classifier at the regional scale in Galicia (NW Spain). We selected for this purpose 93 level-2 forest fires. The accuracy of the RF fire size and severity classifications was remarkably high (>80%). Fire weather overwhelmed bottom-up controls in controlling the fire size of level-2 forest fires. The likelihood of large level-2 forest fires increased sharply with the fire weather index, but plateaued at values above 40. Fire size strongly responded to minimum relative humidity at values below 30%. The most important variables explaining fire severity in level-2 forest fires were the same as in the fire size, as well as the pre-fire shrubland fraction. The high-fire-severity likelihood of level-2 forest fires increased exponentially for shrubland fractions in the landscape above 50%. Our results suggest that level-2 forest fires will pose an increasing danger to people and their property under predicted scenarios of extreme weather conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate solar radiation nowcasting models are critical for the integration of the increasing solar energy in power systems. This work explored the benefits obtained by the blending of four all-sky-imagers (ASI)-based models, two satellite-images-based models and a data-driven model. Two blending approaches (general and horizon) and two blending models (linear and random forest (RF)) were evaluated. The relative contribution of the different forecasting models in the blended-models-derived benefits was also explored. The study was conducted in Southern Spain; blending models provide one-minute resolution 90 min-ahead GHI and DNI forecasts. The results show that the general approach and the RF blending model present higher performance and provide enhanced forecasts. The improvement in rRMSE values obtained by model blending was up to 30% for GHI (40% for DNI), depending on the forecasting horizon. The greatest improvement was found at lead times between 15 and 30 min, and was negligible beyond 50 min. The results also show that blending models using only the data-driven model and the two satellite-images-based models (one using high resolution images and the other using low resolution images) perform similarly to blending models that used the ASI-based forecasts. Therefore, it was concluded that suitable model blending might prevent the use of expensive (and highly demanding, in terms of maintenance) ASI-based systems for point nowcasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans, is a major disease of the potato crop with a strong negative impact on tuber yield and tuber quality. The control of late blight in conventional potato production systems is often through weekly application of prophylactic fungicides, moving away from a sustainable production system. In support of integrated pest management practices, machine learning algorithms were proposed as tools to forecast aerobiological risk level (ARL) of Phytophthora infestans (>10 sporangia/m3) as inoculum to new infections. For this, meteorological and aerobiological data were monitored during five potato crop seasons in Galicia (northwest Spain). Mild temperatures (T) and high relative humidity (RH) were predominant during the foliar development (FD), coinciding with higher presence of sporangia in this phenological stage. The infection pressure (IP), wind, escape or leaf wetness (LW) of the same day also were significantly correlated with sporangia according to Spearman's correlation test. ML algorithms such as random forest (RF) and C5.0 decision tree (C5.0) were successfully used to predict daily sporangia levels, with an accuracy of the models of 87% and 85%, respectively. Currently, existing late blight forecasting systems assume a constant presence of critical inoculum. Therefore, ML algorithms offer the possibility of predicting critical levels of Phytophthora infestans concentration. The inclusion of this type of information in forecasting systems would increase the exactitude in the estimation of the sporangia of this potato pathogen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate solar forecasting lately relies on advances in the field of artificial intelligence and on the availability of databases with large amounts of information on meteorological variables. In this paper, we present the methodology applied to introduce a large-scale, public, and solar irradiance dataset, CyL-GHI, containing refined data from 37 stations found within the Spanish region of Castile and León (Spanish: Castilla y León, or CyL). In addition to the data cleaning steps, the procedure also features steps that enable the addition of meteorological and geographical variables that complement the value of the initial data. The proposed dataset, resulting from applying the processing methodology, is delivered both in raw format and with the quality processing applied, and continuously covers 18 years (the period from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2019), with a temporal resolution of 30 min. CyL-GHI can result in great importance in studies focused on the spatial-temporal characteristics of solar irradiance data, due to the geographical information considered that enables a regional analysis of the phenomena (the 37 stations cover a land area larger than 94,226 km2). Afterwards, three popular artificial intelligence algorithms were optimised and tested on CyL-GHI, their performance values being offered as baselines to compare other forecasting implementations. Furthermore, the ERA5 values corresponding to the studied area were analysed and compared with performance values delivered by the trained models. The inclusion of previous observations of neighbours as input to an optimised Random Forest model (applying a spatio-temporal approach) improved the predictive capability of the machine learning models by almost 3%. Dataset:  https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7404167 Dataset License: CC-BY-SA-NC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main research question addressed in the paper is related to the possibility of medium-term forecasting of the public debts of the EU member states. The analysis focuses on a broad range of indicators (macroeconomic, fiscal, monetary, global, and convergence) that influence the public debt levels of the EU member states. A machine learning prediction model using random forest regression was approbated with the empirical data. The algorithm was applied in two iterations—a primary iteration with 33 indicators and a secondary iteration with the 8 most significant indicators in terms of their influence and forecasting importance regarding the development of public debt across the EU. The research identifies a change in the medium term (2023–2024) in the group of the four most indebted EU member states, viz., that Spain will be replaced by France, which is an even more systemic economy, and will thus increase the group's share of the EU's GDP. The results indicate a logical scenario of rising interest rates with adverse effects for the fiscal imbalances, which will require serious reforms in the public sector of the most indebted EU member states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remote sensing of lake water quality assumes there is no universal method or algorithm that can be applied in a general way on all inland waters, which usually have different in-water components affecting their optical properties. Depending on the place and time of year, the lake dynamics, and the particular components of the water, non-tailor-designed algorithms can lead to large errors or lags in the quantification of the water quality parameters, such as the suspended mineral sediments, dissolved organic matter, and chlorophyll-a concentration. Selecting the most suitable algorithm for each type of water is not a simple matter. One way to make selecting the most suitable water quality algorithm easier on each occasion is by knowing ahead of time the type of water being handled. This approach is used, for instance, in the Lake Water Quality production chain of the Copernicus Global Land Service. The objective of this work is to determine which supervised classification approach might give the most accurate results. We use a dataset of manually labeled pixels on lakes and reservoirs in Eastern Spain. High-resolution images from the Multispectral Instrument sensor on board the ESA Sentinel-2 satellite, atmospherically corrected with the Case 2 Regional Coast Colour algorithm, are used as the basis for extracting the pixels for the dataset. Three families of different supervised classifiers have been implemented and compared: the K-nearest neighbor, decision trees, and support vector machine. Based on the results, the most appropriate for our study area is the random forest classifier, which was selected and applied on a series of images to derive the temporal series of the optical water types per lake. An evaluation of the results is presented, and an analysis is made using expert knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rain type classification into convective and stratiform is an essential step required to improve quantitative precipitation estimations by remote sensing instruments. Previous studies with Micro Rain Radar (MRR) measurements and subjective rules have been performed to classify rain events. However, automating this process by using machine learning (ML) models provides the advantages of fast and reliable classification with the possibility to classify rain minute by minute. A total of 20,979 min of rain data measured by an MRR at Das in northeast Spain were used to build seven types of ML models for stratiform and convective rain type classification. The proposed classification models use a set of 22 parameters that summarize the reflectivity, the Doppler velocity, and the spectral width (SW) above and below the so-called separation level (SL). This level is defined as the level with the highest increase in Doppler velocity and corresponds with the bright band in stratiform rain. A pre-classification of the rain type for each minute based on the rain microstructure provided by the collocated disdrometer was performed. Our results indicate that complex ML models, particularly tree-based ensembles such as xgboost and random forest which capture the interactions of different features, perform better than simpler models. Applying methods from the field of interpretable ML, we identified reflectivity at the lowest layer and the average spectral width in the layers below SL as the most important features. High reflectivity and low SW values indicate a higher probability of convective rain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New computational methods have emerged through science and technology to support the diagnosis of mental health disorders. Predictive models developed from machine learning algorithms can identify disorders such as schizophrenia and support clinical decision making. This research aims to compare the performance of machine learning algorithms: Decision Tree, AdaBoost, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, and k-Nearest Neighbor in the prediction of hospitalized patients with schizophrenia. The data set used in the study contains a total of 11,884 electronic admission records corresponding to 6933 patients with various mental health disorders; these records belong to the acute units of 11 public hospitals in a region of Spain. Of the total, 5968 records correspond to patients diagnosed with schizophrenia (3002 patients) and 5916 records correspond to patients with other mental health disorders (3931 patients). The results recommend Random Forest with the best accuracy of 72.7%. Furthermore, this algorithm presents 79.6%, 72.8%, 72.7%, and 72.7% for AUC, precision, F1-Score, and recall, respectively. The results obtained suggest that the use of machine learning algorithms can classify hospitalized patients with schizophrenia in this population and help in the hospital management of this type of disorder, to reduce the costs associated with hospitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the relevant penetration of solar PV power plants, an accurate power generation forecasting of these installations is crucial to provide both reliability and stability of current grids. At the same time, PV monitoring requirements are more and more demanded by different agents to provide reliable information regarding performances, efficiencies, and possible predictive maintenance tasks. Under this framework, this paper proposes a methodology to evaluate different LoRa-based PV monitoring architectures and node layouts in terms of short-term solar power generation forecasting. A random forest model is proposed as forecasting method, simplifying the forecasting problem especially when the time series exhibits heteroscedasticity, nonstationarity, and multiple seasonal cycles. This approach provides a sensitive analysis of LoRa parameters in terms of node layout, loss of data, spreading factor and short time intervals to evaluate their influence on PV forecasting accuracy. A case example located in the southeast of Spain is included in the paper to evaluate the proposed analysis. This methodology is applicable to other locations, as well as different LoRa configurations, parameters, and networks structures; providing detailed analysis regarding PV monitoring performances and short-term PV generation forecasting discrepancies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate identification of crops is essential to help environmental sustainability and support agricultural policies. This study presents the use of a Spanish radar mission, PAZ, to classify agricultural areas with a very high spatial resolution. PAZ was recently launched, and it operates at X band, joining the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) constellation along with TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X satellites. Owing to its novelty and its ability to classify crop areas (both taking individually its time series and blending with the Sentinel-1 series), it has been tested in an agricultural area of the central-western part of Spain during 2020. The random forest algorithm was selected to classify the time series under five alternatives of standalone/fused data. The map accuracy resulting from the PAZ series standalone was acceptable, but it highlighted the need for a denser time-series of data. The overall accuracy provided by eight PAZ images or by eight Sentinel-1 images was below 60%. The fusion of both sets of eight images improved the overall accuracy by more than 10%. In addition, the exploitation of the whole Sentinel-1 series, with many more observations (up to 40 in the same temporal window) improved the results, reaching an overall accuracy around 76%. This overall performance was similar to that obtained by the joint use of all the available images of the two frequency bands (C and X). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding forest dynamics at the stand level is crucial for sustainable management. Landsat time series have been shown to be effective for identification of drastic changes, such as natural disturbances or clear-cuts, but detecting subtle changes requires further research. Time series of six Landsat-derived vegetation indexes (VIs) were analyzed with the BFAST (Breaks for Additive Season and Trend) algorithm aiming to characterize the changes resulting from harvesting practices of different intensities (clear-cutting, cutting with seed-trees, and thinning) in a Mediterranean forest area of Spain. To assess the contribution of airborne laser scanner (ALS) data and the potential implications of it being after or before the detected changes, two scenarios were defined (based on the year in which ALS data were acquired (2010), and thereby detecting changes from 2005 to 2010 (before ALS data) and from 2011 to 2016 (after ALS data). Pixels identified as change by BFAST were attributed with change in VI intensity and ALS-derived statistics (99th height percentile and forest canopy cover) for classification with random forests, and derivation of change maps. Fusion techniques were applied to leverage the potential of each individual VI change map and to reduce mapping errors. The Tasseled Cap Brightness (TCB) and Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) indexes provided the most accurate results, the latter being more precise for thinning detection. Our results demonstrate the suitability of Landsat time series and ALS data to characterize forest stand changes caused by harvesting practices of different intensity, with improved accuracy when ALS data is acquired after the change occurs. Clear-cuttings were more readily detectable compared to cutting with seed-trees and thinning, detection of which required fusion approaches. This methodology could be implemented to produce annual cartography of harvesting practices, enabling more accurate statistics and spatially explicit identification of forest operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]