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Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be used for accurate heat load forecasting in district heating systems (DHSs). This paper presents an application of a shallow ANN with two hidden layers in the case of a local DHS. The developed model was used to write a simple application in Python 3.10 that can be used in the operation of a district heating plant to carry out a preliminary analysis of heat demand, taking into account the ambient temperature on a given day. The model was trained using the real data from the period 2019–2022. The training was sufficient for the number of 150 epochs. The prediction effectiveness indicator was proposed. In the considered case, the effectiveness of the trained network was 85% and was better in comparison to five different regression models. The developed tool was based on an open-source programming environment and proved its ability to predict heating load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pore pressure prediction is a critical parameter in petroleum engineering and is essential for safe drilling operations and wellbore stability. However, traditional methods for pore pressure prediction, such as empirical correlations, require selecting appropriate input parameters and may not capture the complex relationships between these parameters and the pore pressure. In contrast, artificial neural networks (ANNs) can learn complex relationships between inputs and outputs from data. This paper presents a new empirical correlation for predicting pore pressure using ANNs. The proposed method uses 42 datasets of well log data, including temperature, porosity, and water saturation, to train ANNs for pore pressure prediction. The trained model, with the Bayesian regularization backpropagation function, predicts the pore pressure with an average absolute percentage error (AAPE) and correlation coefficient (R) of 4.22% and 0.875, respectively. The trained ANN is then used to develop a new empirical correlation that relates pore pressure to the input parameters considering the weights and biases of the optimized ANN model. To validate the proposed correlation, it is applied to a blind dataset, where the model successfully predicts the pore pressure with an AAPE of 5.44% and R of 0.957. The results show that the proposed correlation provides accurate and reliable predictions of pore pressure. The proposed method provides a robust and accurate approach for predicting pore pressure in petroleum engineering applications, which can be used to improve drilling safety and wellbore stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present outbreak of COVID-19 is a worldwide calamity for healthcare infrastructures. On a daily basis, a fresh batch of perplexing datasets on the numbers of positive and negative cases, individuals admitted to hospitals, mortality, hospital beds occupied, ventilation shortages, and so on is published. Infections have risen sharply in recent weeks, corresponding with the discovery of a new variant from South Africa (B.1.1.529 also known as Omicron). The early detection of dangerous situations and forecasting techniques is important to prevent the spread of disease and restart economic activities quickly and safely. In this paper, we used weekly mobility data to analyze the current situation in countries worldwide. A methodology for the statistical analysis of the current situation as well as for forecasting future outbreaks is presented in this paper in terms of deaths caused by COVID-19. Our method is evaluated with a multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN), which is a deep learning model, to develop a predictive framework. Furthermore, the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR), Cronbach's alpha, and other metrics were computed to analyze the performance of the forecasting. The MLPNN is shown to have the best outcomes in forecasting the statistics for infected patients and deaths in selected regions. This research also provides an in-depth analysis of the emerging COVID-19 variants, challenges, and issues that must be addressed in order to prevent future outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite advancements in smart grid (SG) technology, effective load forecasting utilizing big data or large-scale datasets remains a complex task for energy management, planning, and control. The Saudi SGs, in alignment with the Saudi Vision 2030, have been envisioned as future electrical grids with a bidirectional flow of power and data. To that end, data analysis and predictive models can enhance Saudi SG planning and control via artificial intelligence (AI). Recently, many AI methods including deep learning (DL) algorithms for SG applications have been published in the literature and have shown superior time series predictions compared with conventional prediction models. Current load-prediction research for the Saudi grid focuses on identifying anticipated loads and consumptions, on utilizing limited historical data and the behavior of the load's consumption, and on conducting shallow forecasting models. However, little scientific proof on complex DL models or real-life application has been conducted by researchers; few articles have studied sophisticated large-scale prediction models for Saudi grids. This paper proposes hybrid DL methods to enhance the outcomes in Saudi SG load forecasting, to improve problem-relevant features, and to accurately predict complicated power consumption, with the goal of developing reliable forecasting models and of obtaining knowledge of the relationships between the various features and attributes in the Saudi SGs. The model in this paper utilizes a real dataset from the Jeddah and Medinah grids in Saudi Arabia for a full year, 2021, with a one-hour time resolution. A benchmark strategy using different conventional DL methods including artificial neural network, recurrent neural network (RNN), conventional neural networks (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and different real datasets is used to verify the proposed models. The prediction results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid DL models, with CNN–GRU and CNN–RNN with NRMSE obtaining 1.4673% and 1.222% improvements, respectively, in load forecasting accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Activities related to the planning and operation of power systems use premise load forecasting, which is responsible for providing a load estimative for a given horizon that assists mainly in the operation of an electrical system. Hierarchical short-term load forecasting (STLF) becomes an approach used for this purpose, where the overall forecast is performed through system partition in smaller macro-regions and, soon after, is aggregated to compose a global forecast. In this context, this paper presents a bottom-up STLF approach for macro-regions. The main innovation is the Average Consumption per Meteorological Region (CERM) index, used to weigh the importance of each station meteorological (EM) in total load demand. Another index, the Variation of Load and Temperature (IVCT), based on historical temperature and demand changes, is proposed. These indexes are incorporated into an ANN model of the multi-layer perceptron type (MLP). The results showed a higher average performance of the index CERM and variable IVCT in relation to the other combinations performed, and the best results were used to compose the prediction of the MTR. Finally, the proposed model presented a Mean Absolute Percentage Error lower than 1%, presenting superior performance compared to an aggregate model for MTR, which shows the efficiency and contribution of the proposed methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Load forecasting (LF) is an essential factor in power system management. LF helps the utility maximize the utilization of power-generating plants and schedule them both reliably and economically. In this paper, a novel and hybrid forecasting method is proposed, combining a long short-term memory network (LSTM) and neural prophet (NP) through an artificial neural network. The paper aims to predict electric load for different time horizons with improved accuracy as well as consistency. The proposed model uses historical load data, weather data, and statistical features obtained from the historical data. Multiple case studies have been conducted with two different real-time data sets on three different types of load forecasting. The hybrid model is later compared with a few established methods of load forecasting found in the literature with different performance metrics: mean average percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), sum of square error (SSE), and regression coefficient (R). Moreover, a guideline with various attributes is provided for different types of load forecasting considering the applications of the proposed model. The results and comparisons from our test cases showed that the proposed hybrid model improved the forecasting accuracy for three different types of load forecasting over other forecasting techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cultural Crowd–Artificial Neural Network (CC-ANN) takes the cultural dimensions of a crowd into account, based on Hofstede Cultural Dimensions (HCDs), to predict social and physical behavior concerning cohesion, collectivity, speed, and distance. This study examines the impact of applying the CC-ANN learning model on more cultures to test the effect of predicting crowd behavior and the relationships among their characteristics. Our previous work which applied the CC-ANN only included eight nations using the six HCDs. In this paper, we including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the CC-ANN as a new culture which aided a comparative study with four HCDs, with and without the UAE, using Mean Squared Error (MSE) for evaluation. The results indicated that most of the best-case experiments involved the UAE having the lowest MSE: 0.127, 0.014, and 0.010, which enhanced the CC-ANN model's ability to predict crowd behavior. Moreover, the links between the cultural, sociological, and physical properties of crowds can be seen from a broader perspective with stronger correlations using the CC-ANN in more countries with diverse cultures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased demand for fast edge computation and privacy concerns have shifted researchers' focus towards a type of distributed learning known as federated learning (FL). Recently, much research has been carried out on FL; however, a major challenge is the need to tackle the high diversity in different clients. Our research shows that using highly diverse data sets in FL can lead to low accuracy of some local models, which can be categorised as anomalous behaviour. In this paper, we present FedBranched, a clustering-based framework that uses probabilistic methods to create branches of clients and assigns their respective global models. Branching is performed using hidden Markov model clustering (HMM), and a round of branching depends on the diversity of the data. Clustering is performed on Euclidean distances of mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) obtained from each client at the end of pre-defined communication rounds. The proposed framework was implemented on substation-level energy data with nine clients for short-term load forecasting using an artificial neural network (ANN). FedBranched took two clustering rounds and resulted in two different branches having individual global models. The results show a substantial increase in the average MAPE of all clients; the biggest improvement of 11.36% was observed in one client. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daily electricity peak load forecasting is important for electricity generation capacity planning. Accurate forecasting leads to saving on excessive electricity generating capacity, while maintaining the stability of the power system. The main challenging tasks in this research field include improving forecasting accuracy and reducing computational time. This paper proposes a hybrid model involving variational mode decomposition (VMD), empirical mode decomposition (EMD), fast Fourier transform (FFT), stepwise regression, similar days selection (SD) method, and artificial neural network (ANN) for daily electricity peak load forecasting. Stepwise regression and similar days selection method are used for input variable selection. VMD and FFT are applied for data decomposition and seasonality capturing, while EMD is employed for determining an appropriate decomposition level for VMD. The hybrid model is constructed to effectively forecast special holidays, which have different patterns from other normal weekdays and weekends. The performance of the hybrid model is tested with real electricity peak load data provided by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, the leading power utility state enterprise under the Ministry of Energy. Experimental results show that the hybrid model gives the best performance while saving computation time by solving the problems in input variable selection, data decomposition, and imbalance data of normal and special days in the training process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advancements in renewable energy technology have significantly reduced the consumer dependence on conventional energy sources for power generation. Solar energy has proven to be a sustainable source of power generation compared to other renewable energy sources. The performance of a photovoltaic (PV) system is highly dependent on the amount of solar penetration to the solar cell, the type of climatic season, the temperature of the surroundings, and the environmental humidity. Unfortunately, every renewable's technology has its limitation. Consequently, this prevents the system from operating to a maximum or optimally. Achieving a precise PV system output power is crucial to overcoming solar power output instability and intermittency performance. This paper discusses an intensive review of machine learning, followed by the types of neural network models under supervised machine learning implemented in photovoltaic power forecasting. The literature of past researchers is collected, mainly focusing on the duration of forecasts for very short-, short-, and long-term forecasts in a photovoltaic system. The performance of forecasting is also evaluated according to a different type of input parameter and time-step resolution. Lastly, the crucial aspects of a conventional and hybrid model of machine learning and neural networks are reviewed comprehensively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of influential machine parameters can be useful to plan and design a plastic injection molding process. However, current research in parameter analysis is mostly based on computer-aided engineering (CAE) or simulation which have been demonstrated to be inadequate for analyzing complex behavioral changes in the real injection molding process. More advanced approaches using machine learning technology specifically with artificial neural networks (ANNs) brought promising results in terms of prediction accuracy. Nevertheless, the black box and distributed representation of ANN prevent humans from gaining an insight into which process parameters give a significant influence on the final prediction output. Therefore, in this paper, we develop a simpler ANN model by using structural learning with forgetting (SLF) as the algorithm for the training process. Instead of typical backpropagation which generated a fully connected layer of the ANN model, SLF only reveals the important neurons and connections. Hence, the training process of SLF leaves only influential connections and neurons. Since each of the neurons specifically on the input layer represent each of the injection molding parameters, the ANN-SLF model can be further investigated to determine the influential process parameters. By applying SLF to the ANN training process, this experiment has successfully extracted a set of significant injection molding process parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tarbela is the largest earth-filled dam in Pakistan, used for both irrigation and power production. Tarbela has already lost around 41.2% of its water storage capacity through 2019, and WAPDA predicts that it will continue to lose storage capacity. If this issue is ignored for an extended period of time, which is not far away, a huge disaster will occur. Sedimentation is one of the significant elements that impact the Tarbela reservoir's storage capacity. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately predict the sedimentation inside the Tarbela reservoir. In this paper, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architecture and multivariate regression technique are proposed to validate and predict the amount of sediment deposition inside the Tarbela reservoir. Four input parameters on yearly basis including rainfall (Ra), water inflow (Iw), minimum water reservoir level (Lr), and storage capacity of the reservoir (Cr) are used to evaluate the proposed machine learning models. Multivariate regression analysis is performed to undertake a parametric study for various combinations of influencing parameters. It was concluded that the proposed neural network model estimated the amount of sediment deposited inside the Tarbela reservoir more accurately as compared to the multivariate regression model because the maximum error in the case of the proposed neural network model was observed to be 4.01% whereas in the case of the multivariate regression model was observed to be 60.7%. Then, the validated neural network model was used for the prediction of the amount of sediment deposition inside the Tarbela reservoir for the next 20 years based on the time series univariate forecasting model ETS forecasted values of Ra, Iw, Lr, and Cr. It was also observed that the storage capacity of the Tarbela reservoir is the most influencing parameter in predicting the amount of sediment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southwest Asia has different climate types including arid, semiarid, Mediterranean, and temperate regions. Due to the complex interactions among components of the Earth system, forecasting precipitation is a difficult task in such large regions. The aim of this paper is to propose a learning approach, based on artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF) algorithms for post-processing the output of forecasting models, in order to provide a multi-model ensemble forecasting of monthly precipitation in southwest Asia. For this purpose, four forecasting models, including GEM-NEMO, NASA-GEOSS2S, CanCM4i, and COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, included in the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME) project, are considered for the ensemble algorithms. Since each model has nine different lead times, a total of 108 different ANN and RF models are trained for each month of the year. To train the proposed ANN an RF models, the ERA5 reanalysis dataset is employed. To compare the performance of the proposed algorithms, four performance evaluation criteria are calculated for each model. The results indicate that the performance of the ANN and RF post-processing is better than that of the individual NMME models. Moreover, RF outperformed ANN for all lead times and months of the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately and dynamically predicting ground settlements during the construction of foundation pits is pivotal to the understanding of the potential risk of foundation pits and, therefore, enables constructors to take timely and effective actions to ensure the construction safety of foundation pits. Existing settlement prediction methods mainly focus on the prediction of the maximum ground settlements based on static influence factors, such as soil properties and the geometry of foundation pits. However, these methods are unable to be applied to the prediction of daily ground settlements in a direct way because daily ground settlements can be affected by many time-dependent influence factors, and an accurate prediction of daily ground settlements should take into consideration such factors. To address this problem, this paper proposes an artificial neural network-based daily ground settlement prediction method, where both static and time-dependent influence factors, as well as previous settlement monitoring data, are considered in the optimum artificial neural network. The proposed method is validated using data collected from a real cut-and-cover highway tunnel project in western Hangzhou, China. The results demonstrate that time-dependent influence factors and previous settlement monitoring data play vital roles in establishing an optimum artificial neural network for the accurate prediction of daily ground settlement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In farming technologies, it is difficult to properly provide the accurate crop nutrients for respective crops. For this reason, farmers are experiencing enormous problems. Although various types of machine learning (deep learning and convolutional neural networks) have been used to identify crop diseases, as has crop classification-based image processing, they have failed to forecast accurate crop nutrients for various crops, as crop nutrients are numerical instead of visual. Neural networks represent an opportunity for the precision agriculture sector to more accurately forecast crop nutrition. Recent technological advancements in neural networks have begun to provide greater precision, with an array of opportunities in pattern recognition. Neural networks represent an opportunity to effectively solve numerical data problems. The aim of the current study is to estimate the right crop nutrients for the right crops based on the data collected using an artificial neural network. The crop data were collected from the MNIST dataset. To forecast the precise nutrients for the crops, ANN models were developed. The entire system was simulated in a MATLAB environment. The obtained results for forecasting accurate nutrients were 99.997%, 99.996%, and 99.997% for validation, training, and testing, respectively. Therefore, the proposed algorithm is suitable for forecasting accurate crop nutrients for the crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transportation significantly influences greenhouse gas emissions—particularly carbon dioxide (CO2)—thereby affecting climate, health, and various socioeconomic aspects. Therefore, in developing and implementing targeted and effective policies to mitigate the environmental impacts of transportation-related carbon dioxide emissions, governments and decision-makers have focused on identifying methods for the accurate and reliable forecasting of carbon emissions in the transportation sector. This study evaluates these policies' impacts on CO2 emissions using three forecasting models: ANN, SVR, and ARIMAX. Data spanning the years 1993–2022, including those on population, GDP, and vehicle kilometers, were analyzed. The results indicate the superior performance of the ANN model, which yielded the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 6.395). Moreover, the results highlight the limitations of the ARIMAX model; particularly its susceptibility to disruptions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, due to its reliance on historical data. Leveraging the ANN model, a scenario analysis of trends under the "30@30" policy revealed a reduction in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in the transportation sector to 14,996.888 kTons in 2030. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in the fields of strategic planning and sustainable transportation development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a comparative analysis of two prominent machine learning techniques for predicting electricity consumption in workplace lighting systems: polynomial regression analysis and artificial neural networks. The primary objective is to assess their suitability and applicability for developing an accurate predictive model. After a brief overview of the current state of energy-saving techniques, the article examines several established models for predicting energy consumption in buildings and systems. These models include artificial neural networks, regression analysis and support vector machines. It then focuses on a practical comparison between polynomial regression analysis and an artificial neural network-based model. The article then looks at the data preparation process, outlining how the data is used within each model to establish appropriate prediction functions. Finally, it describes the methods used to evaluate the accuracy of the developed prediction functions. These functions allow the prediction of lighting consumption based on external lighting intensity. The article evaluates the accuracy of the developed prediction functions using the root mean square error, correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination values. The article compares these values obtained for both models, allowing a conclusive assessment of which model provides superior accuracy in predicting lighting consumption based on external lighting intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The time-series forecasting is a vital area that motivates continuous investigate areas of intrigued for different applications. A critical step for the time-series forecasting is the right determination of the number of past observations (lags). This paper investigates the forecasting accuracy based on the selection of an appropriate time-lag value by applying a comparative study between three methods. These methods include a statistical approach using auto correlation function, a well-known machine learning technique namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) along with a heuristic algorithm to optimize the choosing of time-lag value, and a parallel implementation of LSTM that dynamically choose the best prediction based on the optimal time-lag value. The methods were applied to an experimental data set, which consists of five meteorological parameters and aerosol particle number concentration. The performance metrics were: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and R-squared. The investigation demonstrated that the proposed LSTM model with heuristic algorithm is the superior method in identifying the best time-lag value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An integrated methodological approach to the development of a coastal flood early-warning system is presented in this paper to improve societal preparedness for coastal flood events. The approach consists of two frameworks, namely the Hindcast Framework and the Forecast Framework. The aim of the former is to implement a suite of high-credibility numerical models and validate them according to past flooding events, while the latter takes advantage of these validated models and runs a plethora of scenarios representing distinct sea-state events to train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that is capable of predicting the impending coastal flood risks. The proposed approach was applied in the flood-prone coastal area of Rethymno in the Island of Crete in Greece. The performance of the developed ANN is good, given the complexity of the problem, accurately predicting the targeted coastal flood risks. It is capable of predicting such risks without requiring time-consuming numerical simulations; the ANN only requires the offshore wave characteristics (height, period and direction) and sea-water-level elevation, which can be obtained from open databases. The generic nature of the proposed methodological approach allows its application in numerous coastal regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Photovoltaic power forecasting is an important problem for renewable energy integration in the grid. The purpose of this review is to analyze current methods to predict photovoltaic power or solar irradiance, with the aim of summarizing them, identifying gaps and trends, and providing an overview of what has been achieved in recent years. A search on Web of Science was performed, obtaining 60 articles published from 2020 onwards. These articles were analyzed, gathering information about the forecasting methods used, the horizon, time step, and parameters. The most used forecasting methods are machine learning and deep learning based, especially artificial neural networks. Most of the articles make predictions for one hour or less ahead and predict power instead of irradiance, although both parameters are strongly correlated, and output power depends on received irradiance. Finally, they use weather variables as inputs, consisting mainly of irradiance, temperature, wind speed and humidity. Overall, there is a lack of hardware implementations for real-time predictions, being an important line of development in future decades with the use of embedded prediction systems at the photovoltaic installations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity peak load forecasting plays an important role in electricity generation capacity planning to ensure reliable power supplies. To achieve high forecast accuracy, multiple machine learning models have been implemented to forecast the monthly peak load in Thailand over the past few years, yielding promising results. One approach to further improve forecast accuracy is to effectively select the most accurate forecast value for each period from among the forecast values generated by these models. This article presents a novel reinforcement learning approach using the double deep Q-network (Double DQN), which acts as a model selector from a pool of available models. The monthly electricity peak load data of Thailand from 2004 to 2017 are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. A hyperparameter tuning methodology using a fractional factorial design is implemented to significantly reduce the number of required experimental runs. The results indicate that the proposed selection model using Double DQN outperforms all tested individual machine learning models in terms of mean square error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric vehicles are anticipated to be essential components of future energy systems, as they possess the capability to assimilate surplus energy generated by renewable sources. With the increasing popularity of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), conventional internal combustion engine (ICE)-based vehicles are expected to be gradually phased out, thereby decreasing greenhouse gases and reliance on foreign oil. Intensive research and development efforts across the globe are currently concentrated on developing effective PHEV charging solutions that can efficiently cater to the charging needs of PHEVs, while simultaneously minimizing their detrimental effects on the power infrastructure. Efficient PHEV charging strategies and technologies are necessary to overcome the obstacles presented. Forecasting PHEV charging loads provides a solution by enabling energy delivery to power systems based on anticipated future loads. We have developed a novel approach, utilizing machine learning methods, for accurately forecasting PHEV charging loads at charging stations across three phases of powering (smart, non-cooperative, and cooperative). The proposed Q-learning method outperforms conventional AI techniques, such as recurrent neural and artificial neural networks, in accurately forecasting PHEV loads for various charging scenarios. The findings indicate that the Q-learning method effectively predicts PHEV loads in three scenarios: smart, non-cooperative, and cooperative. Compared to the ANN and RNN models, the forecast precision of the QL model is higher by 31.2% and 40.7%, respectively. The Keras open-source set was utilized to simulate three different approaches and evaluate the efficacy and worth of the suggested Q-learning technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising number of confirmed cases and deaths in Pakistan caused by the coronavirus have caused problems in all areas of the country, not just healthcare. For accurate policy making, it is very important to have accurate and efficient predictions of confirmed cases and death counts. In this article, we use a coronavirus dataset that includes the number of deaths, confirmed cases, and recovered cases to test an artificial neural network model and compare it to different univariate time series models. In contrast to the artificial neural network model, we consider five univariate time series models to predict confirmed cases, deaths count, and recovered cases. The considered models are applied to Pakistan's daily records of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered cases from 10 March 2020 to 3 July 2020. Two statistical measures are considered to assess the performances of the models. In addition, a statistical test, namely, the Diebold and Mariano test, is implemented to check the accuracy of the mean errors. The results (mean error and statistical test) show that the artificial neural network model is better suited to predict death and recovered coronavirus cases. In addition, the moving average model outperforms all other confirmed case models, while the autoregressive moving average is the second-best model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blood glucose level prediction is a critical aspect of diabetes management. It enables individuals to make informed decisions about their insulin dosing, diet, and physical activity. This, in turn, improves their quality of life and reduces the risk of chronic and acute complications. One conundrum in developing time-series forecasting models for blood glucose level prediction is to determine an appropriate length for look-back windows. On the one hand, studying short histories foists the risk of information incompletion. On the other hand, analysing long histories might induce information redundancy due to the data shift phenomenon. Additionally, optimal lag lengths are inconsistent across individuals because of the domain shift occurrence. Therefore, in bespoke analysis, either optimal lag values should be found for each individual separately or a globally suboptimal lag value should be used for all. The former approach degenerates the analysis's congruency and imposes extra perplexity. With the latter, the fine-tunned lag is not necessarily the optimum option for all individuals. To cope with this challenge, this work suggests an interconnected lag fusion framework based on nested meta-learning analysis that improves the accuracy and precision of predictions for personalised blood glucose level forecasting. The proposed framework is leveraged to generate blood glucose prediction models for patients with type 1 diabetes by scrutinising two well-established publicly available Ohio type 1 diabetes datasets. The models developed undergo vigorous evaluation and statistical analysis from mathematical and clinical perspectives. The results achieved underpin the efficacy of the proposed method in blood glucose level time-series prediction analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on the important issue of predicting electricity load for efficient energy management. To achieve this goal, different statistical methods were compared, and results over time were analyzed using various ratios and layers for training and testing. This study uses an artificial neural network (ANN) model with advanced prediction techniques such as genetic algorithms (GA) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS). This article stands out with a comprehensive compilation of many features and methodologies previously presented in other studies. This study uses a long-term pattern in the prediction process and achieves the lowest relative error values by using hourly divided annual data for testing and training. Data samples were applied to different algorithms, and we examined their effects on load predictions to understand the relationship between various factors and electrical load. This study shows that the ANN–GA model has good accuracy and low error rates for load predictions compared to other models, resulting in the best performance for our system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting of sediment load (SL) is essential for reservoir operations, design of water resource structures, risk management, water resource planning and for preventing natural disasters in the river basin systems. Direct measurement of SL is difficult, labour intensive, and expensive. The development of an accurate and reliable model for forecasting the SL is required. Sediment transport is highly non-linear and is influenced by a variety of factors. Forecasting of the SL using various conventional methods is not highly accurate because of the association of various complex phenomena. In this study, major key factors such as rock type (RT), relief (R), rainfall (RF), water discharge (WD), temperature (T), catchment area (CA), and SL are recognized in developing the one-step-ahead SL forecasting model in the Mahanadi River (MR), which is among India's largest rivers. Artificial neural networks (ANN) in conjunction with multi-objective genetic algorithm (ANN-MOGA)-based forecasting models were developed for forecasting the SL in the MR. The ANN-MOGA model was employed to optimize the two competing objective functions (bias and error variance) with simultaneous optimization of all associated ANN parameters. The performances of the proposed novel model were finally compared to other existing methods to verify the forecasting capability of the model. The ANN-MOGA model improved the performance by 12.81% and 10.19% compared to traditional AR and MAR regression models, respectively. The results suggested that hybrid ANN-MOGA models outperform traditional autoregressive and multivariate autoregressive forecasting models. Overall, hybrid ANN-MOGA intelligent techniques are recommended for the forecasting of SL in rivers because of their relatively better performance as compared to other existing models and simplicity of application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Balancing the production and consumption of electricity is an urgent task. Its implementation largely depends on the means and methods of planning electricity production. Forecasting is one of the planning tools since the availability of an accurate forecast is a mechanism for increasing the validity of management decisions. This study provides an overview of the methods used to predict electricity supply requirements to different objects. The methods have been reviewed analytically, taking into account the forecast classification according to the anticipation period. In this way, the methods used in operative, short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting have been considered. Both classical and modern forecasting methods have been identified when forecasting electric energy consumption. Classical forecasting methods are based on the theory of regression and statistical analysis (regression, autoregressive models); probabilistic forecasting methods and modern forecasting methods use classical and deep-machine-learning algorithms, rank analysis methodology, fuzzy set theory, singular spectral analysis, wavelet transformations, Gray models, etc. Due to the need to take into account the specifics of each subject area characterizing an energy facility to obtain reliable forecast results, power consumption modeling remains an urgent task despite a wide variety of other methods. The review was conducted with an assessment of the methods according to the following criteria: labor intensity, requirements for the initial data set, scope of application, accuracy of the forecasting method, the possibility of application for other forecasting horizons. The above classification of methods according to the anticipation period allows highlights the fact that when predicting power consumption for different time intervals, the same methods are often used. Therefore, it is worth emphasizing the importance of classifying the forecast over the forecasting horizon not to differentiate the methods used to predict electricity consumption for each period but to consider the specifics of each type of forecasting (operative, short-term, medium-term, long-term). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Process-based models have been employed extensively in the last decades for the prediction of coastal bed evolution in the medium term (1–5 years), under the combined action of waves and currents, due to their ability to resolve the dominant coastal processes. Despite their widespread application, they are associated with high demand for computational resources, rendering the annual prediction of the coastal bed evolution a tedious task. To combat this, wave input reduction methods are generally employed to reduce the sheer amount of sea-states to be simulated to assess the bed level changes. The purpose of this research is to further expand on the concept of input reduction methods by presenting a methodology combining numerical modelling and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The trained ANN is tasked with eliminating wave records unable to initiate sediment motion and hence further reduce the required computational times. The methodology was implemented in both an idealized and a real-field case study to examine the sensitivity, and produced very satisfactory predictions of the rates of bed level change, with respect to a benchmark simulation containing a very detailed wave climate. The obtained results have strong implications for further accelerating the demanding morphological simulations while enhancing the reliability and accuracy of model predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate, timely air quality index (AQI) forecasting helps industries in selecting the most suitable air pollution control measures and the public in reducing harmful exposure to pollution. This article proposes a comprehensive method to forecast AQIs. Initially, the work focused on predicting hourly ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 using artificial neural networks. Once the method was developed, the work was extended to the prediction of other criteria pollutants, i.e., O3, SO2, NO2, and CO, which fed into the process of estimating AQI. The prediction of the AQI not only requires the selection of a robust forecasting model, it also heavily relies on a sequence of pre-processing steps to select predictors and handle different issues in data, including gaps. The presented method dealt with this by imputing missing entries using missForest, a machine learning-based imputation technique which employed the random forest (RF) algorithm. Unlike the usual practice of using RF at the final forecasting stage, we utilized RF at the data pre-processing stage, i.e., missing data imputation and feature selection, and we obtained promising results. The effectiveness of this imputation method was examined against a linear imputation method for the six criteria pollutants and the AQI. The proposed approach was validated against ambient air quality observations for Al-Jahra, a major city in Kuwait. Results obtained showed that models trained using missForest-imputed data could generalize AQI forecasting and with a prediction accuracy of 92.41% when tested on new unseen data, which is better than earlier findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the application of complex fracturing and other complex technologies, external extrusion has become the main cause of casing damage, which makes non-API high-extrusion-resistant casing continuously used in unconventional oil and gas resources exploitation. Due to the strong sensitivity of string ovality, uneven wall thickness, residual stress, and other factors to high anti-collapse casing, the API formula has a big error in predicting the anti-collapse strength of high anti-collapse casing. Therefore, Bayesian regularization artificial neural network (BRANN) is used to predict the external collapse strength of high anti-collapse casing. By collecting full-scale physical data, including initial defect data, geometric size, mechanical parameters, etc., after data preprocessing, the casing collapse strength data set is established for model training and blind measurement. Under the classical three-layer neural network, the Bayesian regularization algorithm is used for training. Through empirical formula and trial and error method, it is determined that when the number of hidden neurons is 12, the model is the best prediction model for high collapse resistance casing. The prediction results of the blind test data imported by the model show that the coincidence rate of BRANN casing collapse strength prediction can reach 96.67%. Through error analysis with API formula prediction results and KT formula prediction results improved by least square fitting, the BRANN-based casing collapse strength prediction has higher accuracy and stability. Compared with the traditional prediction method, this model can be used to predict casing strength under more complicated working conditions, and it has a certain guiding significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article involves forecasting daily electricity consumption in Thailand. Electricity consumption data are provided by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, the leading power utility state enterprise under the Ministry of Energy. Five forecasting techniques, including multiple linear regression, artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine, hybrid models, and ensemble models, are implemented. The article proposes a hyperparameter tuning technique, called sequential grid search, which is based on the widely used grid search, for ANN and hybrid models. Auxiliary variables and indicator variables that can improve the models' forecasting performance are included. From the computational experiment, the hybrid model of a multiple regression model to forecast the expected daily consumption and ANNs from the sequential grid search to forecast the error term, along with additional indicator variables for some national holidays, provides the best mean absolution percentage error of 1.5664% on the test data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the capabilities of artificial neural networks (ANNs) when integrated with the finite element method (FEM) and utilized as prediction tools to predict the failure pressure of corroded pipelines. The use of conventional residual strength assessment methods has proven to produce predictions that are conservative, and this, in turn, costs companies by leading to premature maintenance and replacement. ANNs and FEM have proven to be strong failure pressure prediction tools, and they are being utilized to replace the time-consuming methods and conventional codes. FEM is widely used to evaluate the structural integrity of corroded pipelines, and the integration of ANNs into this process greatly reduces the time taken to obtain accurate results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind speed and wind power are two important indexes for wind farms. Accurate wind speed and power forecasting can help to improve wind farm management and increase the contribution of wind power to the grid. However, nonlinear and non-stationary wind speed and wind power can influence the forecasting performance of different models. To improve forecasting accuracy and overcome the influence of the original time series on the model, a forecasting system that can effectively forecast wind speed and wind power based on a data pre-processing strategy, a modified multi-objective optimization algorithm, a multiple single forecasting model, and a combined model is developed in this study. A data pre-processing strategy was implemented to determine the wind speed and wind power time series trends and to reduce interference from noise. Multiple artificial neural network forecasting models were used to forecast wind speed and wind power and construct a combined model. To obtain accurate and stable forecasting results, the multi-objective optimization algorithm was employed to optimize the weight of the combined model. As a case study, the developed forecasting system was used to forecast the wind speed and wind power over 10 min from four different sites. The point forecasting and interval forecasting results revealed that the developed forecasting system exceeds all other models with respect to forecasting precision and stability. Thus, the developed system is extremely useful for enhancing forecasting precision and is a reasonable and valid tool for use in intelligent grid programming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of an efficient and accurate hydrological forecasting model is essential for water management and flood control. In this study, the ensemble model was applied to predict the daily discharge; it not only could enhance the algorithm and improve the learning accuracy, but it was also the most effective representative model among various combinations of learning parameters. Using the survey data of Xingshan station in Xiangxi River, China, the suitability of the model was proven. The performance of the ensemble model was compared with the multiple linear regression model and the artificial neural network models. Furthermore, the length of the training samples and the peak value predictions were analyzed. The results showed that, firstly, the best effect of the discharge simulation model appeared in the ensemble model, while the simulation accuracy of the multiple linear regression model was lower than that of the artificial neural network model in some cases. Secondly, the prediction effect of the ensemble model for discharge was better than that of the single model to some extent, whereby the maximum absolute value of relative error was 8.11% using the ensemble model. A comprehensive analysis showed that the ensemble model was optimal. Furthermore, the ensemble model performed outstandingly in terms of hydrological forecasting. The ensemble model also provided theoretical support for hydrological forecasting and could be considered as an alternative to multiple linear regression models and artificial neural networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]