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Soil organic carbon storage is a well-identified climate change mitigation solution. Quantification of the soil carbon storage in cropland for agricultural policy and offset carbon markets using in situ sampling would be excessively costly, especially at the intrafield scale. For this reason, comprehensive monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of soil carbon and its explanatory variables at a large scale need to rely on hybrid approaches that combine remote sensing and modelling tools to provide the carbon budget components with their associated uncertainties at intrafield scale. Here, we present AgriCarbon-EO v1.0.1: an end-to-end processing chain that enables the estimation of carbon budget components for major and cover crops at intrafield resolution (10 m) and regional extents (e.g. 10 000 km 2) by assimilating remote sensing data (e.g. Sentinel-2 and Landsat8) in a physically based radiative transfer (PROSAIL) and agronomic models (SAFYE-CO2). The data assimilation in AgriCarbon-EO is based on a novel Bayesian approach that combines normalized importance sampling and look-up table generation. This approach propagates the uncertainties across the processing chain from the reflectances to the output variables. After a presentation of the chain, we demonstrate the accuracy of the estimates of AgriCarbon-EO through an application over winter wheat in the southwest of France during the cropping seasons from 2017 to 2019. We validate the outputs with flux tower data for net ecosystem exchange, biomass destructive samples, and combined harvester yield maps. Our results show that the scalability and uncertainty estimates proposed by the approach do not hinder the accuracy of the estimates (net ecosystem exchange, NEE: RMSE =1.68 –2.38 gC m -2 , R2=0.87 –0.77; biomass: RMSE =11.34 g m -2 , R2=0.94). We also show the added value of intrafield simulations for the carbon components through scenario testing of pixel and field simulations (biomass: bias =-47 g m -2 , - 39 % variability). Our overall analysis shows satisfying accuracy, but it also points out the need to represent more soil processes and include synthetic aperture radar data that would enable a larger coverage of AgriCarbon-EO. The paper's findings confirm the suitability of the choices made in building AgriCarbon-EO as a hybrid solution for an MRV scheme to diagnose agro-ecosystem carbon fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building on CMIP6 climate simulations, updated global and regional observations, and recently introduced statistical methods, we provide an updated assessment of past and future warming over France. Following the IPCC AR6 and recent global-scale studies, we combine model results with observations to constrain climate change at the regional scale. Over mainland France, the forced warming in 2020 with respect to 1900–1930 is assessed to be 1.66 [1.41 to 1.90] ∘ C, i.e., in the upper range of the CMIP6 estimates, and is almost entirely human-induced. A refined view of the seasonality of this past warming is provided through updated daily climate normals. Projected warming in response to an intermediate emission scenario is assessed to be 3.8 ∘ C (2.9 to 4.8 ∘ C) in 2100 and rises up to 6.7 [5.2 to 8.2] ∘ C in a very high emission scenario, i.e., substantially higher than in previous ensembles of global and regional simulations. Winter warming and summer warming are expected to be about 15 % lower than and 30 % higher than the annual mean warming, respectively, for all scenarios and time periods. This work highlights the importance of combining various lines of evidence, including model and observed data, to deliver the most reliable climate information. This refined regional assessment can feed adaptation planning for a range of activities and provides additional rationale for urgent climate action. Code is made available to facilitate replication over other areas or political entities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a local-scale atmospheric inversion framework to estimate the location and rate of methane (CH 4) and carbon dioxide (CO 2) releases from point sources. It relies on mobile near-ground atmospheric CH 4 and CO 2 mole fraction measurements across the corresponding atmospheric plumes downwind of these sources, on high-frequency meteorological measurements, and on a Gaussian plume dispersion model. The framework exploits the scatter of the positions of the individual plume cross sections, the integrals of the gas mole fractions above the background within these plume cross sections, and the variations of these integrals from one cross section to the other to infer the position and rate of the releases. It has been developed and applied to provide estimates of brief controlled CH 4 and CO 2 point source releases during a 1-week campaign in October 2018 at the TOTAL experimental platform TADI in Lacq, France. These releases typically lasted 4 to 8 min and covered a wide range of rates (0.3 to 200 g CH 4 /s and 0.2 to 150 g CO 2 /s) to test the capability of atmospheric monitoring systems to react fast to emergency situations in industrial facilities. It also allowed testing of their capability to provide precise emission estimates for the application of climate change mitigation strategies. However, the low and highly varying wind conditions during the releases added difficulties to the challenge of characterizing the atmospheric transport over the very short duration of the releases. We present our series of CH 4 and CO 2 mole fraction measurements using instruments on board a car that drove along roads ∼50 to 150 m downwind of the 40 m × 60 m area for controlled releases along with the estimates of the release locations and rates. The comparisons of these results to the actual position and rate of the controlled releases indicate ∼10 %–40 % average errors (depending on the inversion configuration or on the series of tests) in the estimates of the release rates and ∼30 –40 m errors in the estimates of the release locations. These results are shown to be promising, especially since better results could be expected for longer releases and under meteorological conditions more favorable to local-scale dispersion modeling. However, the analysis also highlights the need for methodological improvements to increase the skill for estimating the source locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]