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Aim: Altitudinal and latitudinal treeline ecotones have not consistently responded to climate warming in the direction and/or magnitude predicted by climate alone, suggesting that non‐climatic mechanisms (e.g. biotic interactions) also mediate treeline range dynamics. Through a collaborative research approach, we assessed environmental conditions associated with pre‐dispersal insect cone granivory and how this biotic interaction may govern the reproductive potential, and therefore range dynamics, of spruce‐dominated treelines across northern Canada. Location: In all, 10 boreal forest treelines, tundra and alpine, from Yukon to Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. Taxa: White spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss), Black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.), Strobilomyia spp., Megastigmus spp. Methods: Treeline sites were assessed for presence and magnitude of pre‐dispersal seed granivory by insects along with viable seed availability. We quantified stand density metrics, organic layer depth and understorey vegetation composition at each location and, subsequently, incorporated those variables into generalized linear mixed models to establish predictors of granivory magnitude and viability of available seed. Results: Insect granivory was widespread across sites; however, site‐specific patterns of granivory were associated with increased moss cover and decreased shrub cover and stand density. While all black spruce‐dominated sites exhibited seed viability rates > 50%, the number of seeds produced per cone varied, suggesting that within‐site abiotic conditions and biotic interaction pressures limit successful colonization of novel environments in advance of seed dispersal. Main Conclusions: The modelled relationships between granivory, seed viability and environmental conditions represent an essential step towards generalizing how and when biotic interactions across subarctic treelines influence boreal tree range dynamics before seed dispersal. Connections between granivory magnitude and site‐level treeline characteristics (e.g. stand density, understorey vegetation) will provide a more comprehensive understanding of treeline range dynamics under continued climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As northern latitudes experience rapid winter warming, there is an urgent need to assess the effect of varying winter conditions on tree growth and forest carbon sequestration potential. We examined tree growth responses to variability in cold-season (November–- April) frequency of freeze days (FFD) over 1951 to 2018 using tree-ring data from 35,217 trees and 57 species at 4,375 sites distributed across Canada. We found that annual radial growth responses to FFD varied by species, with some commonalities across genera and clades. The growth of gymnosperms with late spring leaf-out strategies was negatively related to FFD; years with high FFD were most detrimental to the annual growth of Pinus banksiana, Pinus contorta, Larix lyalli, Abies amabilis, and Abies lasiocarpa. In contrast, the growth of angiosperms with early leaf-out strategies, namely, Populus tremuloides and Betula papyrifera, was better in the coldest years, and gymnosperms with intermediate leaf-out timing, such as widespread Picea mariana and Picea glauca, had no consistent relationship to FFD. Tree growth responses to FFD were further modulated by tree size, tree age, regional climate (i.e., mean cold-season temperature), and local site conditions. Overall, our results suggest that moderately warming winters may temporarily improve the growth of widespread pines and some high-elevation conifers in western Canada, whereas warming winters may be detrimental to the growth of widespread boreal angiosperms. Our findings also highlight the value of using species-specific climate-growth relationships to refine predictions of forest carbon dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Merging robust statistical methods with complex simulation models is a frontier for improving ecological inference and forecasting. However, bringing these tools together is not always straightforward. Matching data with model output, determining starting conditions, and addressing high dimensionality are some of the complexities that arise when attempting to incorporate ecological field data with mechanistic models directly using sophisticated statistical methods. To illustrate these complexities and pragmatic paths forward, we present an analysis using tree‐ring basal area reconstructions in Denali National Park (DNPP) to constrain successional trajectories of two spruce species (Picea mariana and Picea glauca) simulated by a forest gap model, University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced—UVAFME. Through this process, we provide preliminary ecological inference about the long‐term competitive dynamics between slow‐growing P. mariana and relatively faster‐growing P. glauca. Incorporating tree‐ring data into UVAFME allowed us to estimate a bias correction for stand age with improved parameter estimates. We found that higher parameter values for P. mariana minimum growth under stress and P. glauca maximum growth rate were key to improving simulations of coexistence, agreeing with recent research that faster‐growing P. glauca may outcompete P. mariana under climate change scenarios. The implementation challenges we highlight are a crucial part of the conversation for how to bring models together with data to improve ecological inference and forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims Black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) and white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss.) are congeneric species. Both are moderately shade tolerant and widely distributed across North American boreal forests. Methods To understand light effects on their ecophysiological responses to elevated CO2, 1-year-old seedlings were exposed to 360 µmol mol−1 and 720 µmol mol−1 CO2 at three light conditions (100%, 50% and 30% of full light in the greenhouse). Foliar gas exchanges were measured in the mid- and late-growing season. Important Findings Elevated CO2 increased net photosynthesis (P n) and photosynthetic water use efficiency, but it reduced stomatal conductance and transpiration. The stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated CO2 was greatest at 50% light and smallest at 100%. Photosynthesis, maximum carboxylation rate (V cmax) and light-saturated rate of electron transport (J max) all decreased with decreasing light. Elevated CO2 significantly reduced V cmax across all light treatments and both species in mid-growing season. However, the effect of elevated CO2 became insignificant at 30% light later in the growing season, with the response being greater in black spruce than in white spruce. Elevated CO2 also reduced J max in white spruce in both measurements while the effect became insignificant at 30% light later in the growing season. However, the effect on black spruce varied with time. Elevated CO2 reduced J max in black spruce in mid-growing season in all light treatments and the effect became insignificant at 30% light later in the growing season, while it increased J max later in the season at 100% and 50% light. These results suggest that both species benefited from elevated CO2, and that the responses varied with light supply, such that the response was primarily physiological at 100% and 50% light, while it was primarily morphological at 30% light. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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• 50+ years of growth and C dynamics at plantation experiment estimated with tree-rings and models. • Productivity greatest at high density, and for red pine relative to black or white spruce. • NEP largest at high density when stands young, similar across all densities as stands matured. • Initial soil C estimate contributed uncertainty to when sites became C sink after planting. Afforestation can result in significant accumulations of carbon (C) in both soils and vegetation, which can make an important contribution to GHG emission mitigation. However, there remains a critical knowledge gap about ecosystem C stocks and fluxes at afforested sites, which is required in order to understand the effect of management choices like species selection and initial planting density. A hybrid biometric modelling approach was used to reconstruct ecosystem C stocks and fluxes at an experimental spacing trial consisting of three species (red pine, white spruce, and black spruce) planted at three densities, 63 years after it was established on former agricultural land in Northwestern Ontario, Canada. Wood volume and increment were larger for closer spacing and for red pine relative to black or white spruce, and translated to analogous differences in estimates of ecosystem C dynamics. At young ages, net ecosystem production was largest at close spacing, but this difference attenuated over time and was similar in recent decades regardless of initial spacing. Estimated carbon stock and flux values were generally congruent with available estimates from independent studies at analogous sites, with the exception of litterfall which showed greater differences. Plots at the site were estimated to be C sinks on an annual basis immediately after establishment under the assumption that the site was previously under long-term agricultural land use, but anywhere from 10 to 20 years following establishment if the site was modelled as if it was a stand in the managed forest historically subject to natural disturbance regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The performance of various conifer species in boreal lichen woodlands is unknown. • Four conifer species were planted at two sites with contrasting fertility. • Survival rate 5 years after planting was high for all species at both sites. • Soil quality had a large impact on growth but not on aboveground biomass traits. • Jack pine had a better performance and benefited more from increased soil quality. Lichen woodlands (LWs) are persistent unproductive areas of the Canadian boreal forests whose afforestation may potentially remove significant amounts of anthropogenic C from the atmosphere. The choice of species to be planted is nevertheless uncertain given the particular pedoclimatic conditions prevailing in this habitat as well as the rapidly changing climate at northern latitudes. In this study, we assessed the survival and the growth rates of four boreal coniferous species in two LWs with contrasting soil fertility. Five years after afforestation, survival rate was high for all species at both sites, ranging from 60 to 100 %. Tree height and diameter at stump height (DSH) were up to 60 % and 97 % higher at the LW with higher soil fertility, respectively. The height of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.; JP) trees was on average 15 %, 56 % and 68 % higher than that of tamarack (Larix laricina [DuRoi] K. Koch; TK), black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] BSP; BS) and white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss; WS), respectively. There was a significant species × soil fertility interaction, reflecting a much higher growth difference between the two sites for JP than for the other species. Annual apical growth increased from one year to the other in JP, suggesting its ability to expand its root system and to acquire resources from the mineral soil rapidly after planting. The much larger photosynthetic biomass at the more fertile site was driven by a higher number of needles produced annually rather than by a higher mass of individual needles, which did not vary between sites. The photosynthetic biomass / woody biomass ratio was not significantly impacted by soil fertility. Overall, these results suggest that JP and TK may be good candidates for the afforestation of boreal LWs and that site selection is of crucial importance to optimize plantation productivity in the mid-term. Further studies must be conducted to assess the survival and the C sequestration potential of these species in the long-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of forest growth and yield (G&Y) are a key component in long-term strategic forest management plans. Models leveraging the industry-standard "empirical" approach to G&Y are frequently underpinned by an assumption of historical consistency in climatic growing conditions. This assumption is problematic as forest managers look to obtain reliable growth predictions under the changing climate of the 21st century. Consequently, there is a pressing need for G&Y modelling approaches that can be more robustly applied under the influence of climate change. In this study we utilized an established forest gap model (JABOWA-3) to simulate G&Y between 2020 and 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). Simulations were completed using the province's permanent sample plot data and surface-fitted climatic datasets. Through model validation, we found simulated basal area (BA) aligned with observed BA for the major conifer species components of NL's forests, including black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton et al.] and balsam fir [Abies balsamea (L.) Mill]. Model validation was not as robust for the less abundant species components of NL (e.g., Acer rubrum L. 1753, Populus tremuloides Michx., and Picea glauca (Moench) Voss). Our simulations generally indicate that projected climatic changes may modestly increase black spruce and balsam fir productivity in the more northerly growing environments within NL. In contrast, we found productivity of these same species to only be maintained, and in some instances even decline, toward NL's southerly extents. These generalizations are moderated by species, RCP, and geographic parameters. Growth modifiers were also prepared to render empirical G&Y projections more robust for use under periods of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]