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By definition, thefts are considered the act of taking away other people's mobile possessions for personal use or for others, affecting crime rates, economic indicators and enabling recent studies to create risk zones in society, contributing to insurance pricing in actuarial methods. This paper analyzes the number of vehicle thefts of 38 locations near Campinas/S˜ao Paulo, Brazil, using a GLARMA(p,q) model with Poisson and Negative Binomial response. The main feature of GLARMA(p,q) is to consider the peculiarities of counting data as high dispersion. As a result, it was possible to verify the adequacy and usefulness of the model for counting data. With specific techniques for estimating time series related to the public security area, patterns can be better understood, revealing relevant information that can be added to decision-making processes to direct public policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since mid-1990s crime rates in Brazil started to increase with the transition from military dictatorship to democracy, a period marked by the rise of poverty and hyperinflation. Given levels of police corruption and protection of criminal gangs, trust in the criminal justice system was low, leading to a heightened dependence on private security, gated communities and the politicisation of law and order politics. An impressive punitive turn began at in the 1990s. This paper analysed penal policies under successive left-wing Lula and Dilma governments from 2003 to 2014. During this period the rise of'postneoliberal' and 'postneoconservative' politics, led by the Workers Party, developed governmental strategies and initiatives that formulated and legitimized rich and complex expressions of traditionally left-wing politics. Despite the simultaneous implementation of distributive policies, the increase of human development levels throughout the country, the reduction of social inequalities and the redirection of the official discourse of Federal Government security policies towards crime prevention, incarceration rates continued to increase. This article examines why efforts to build an effective public security policy committed to upholding civil rights and improving the control of police and police activities have failed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]