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This paper explores the impact of the political hierarchies of cities in China from different perspectives. First, we examine the economic disparities between prefectural cities and municipalities. Furthermore, this paper draws upon a quasi‐ experiment to analyze the impact of upgrading Chongqing to a municipality in 1997 using the synthetic control method. The city‐upgrading policy significantly increased Chongqing's gross domestic product (GDP) in the following 4 years. Finally, we find that the policy increased GDP in treated cities within 1200 km of Chongqing by about 10%–13% relative to the control cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China joined the Paris Agreement, and the global 2°C and 1.5°C warming targets will be supported by China. In order to achieve these targets, China's CO2 emissions need to be cut deeply by 2050. The present paper presents studies from the integrated policy assessment model for China (IPAC) team about the impact on China's economic development of deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, in order to realize the Paris climate change targets. With the requirement of deep cuts in GHG emissions in China, China's economic development will also be impacted in moving toward a low‐carbon or zero‐carbon emission‐based economy by 2050. This means the Chinese economy needs a strong transition over the next three decades, a relatively short time. All sectors in the economy need to seek ways to reduce GHG emissions, and this could change activities, industry processes and technologies in order to make the deep cuts in GHG emissions happen. This is the meaning of the economic transition toward to a low‐carbon economy. The findings of the present paper include: a significant transition in the energy supply sector; a high rate of electrification in all end‐use sectors; and a technology transition in the transport sector. Transitions will also occur in the traditional industrial sectors, including steel making, cement manufacture, and the chemical sector. The availability of low‐cost renewable energy could change the allocation of industries, which could potentially have a strong impact on regional economic development. Deep cuts in CO2 emissions in China need not be a burden for economic development, as the IPAC results show there will be a more than 1.5% increase of gross domestic product by 2050 in the deep cut scenario compared with the baseline scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the convergence clustering in 31 Chinese provinces regarding several important economic indicators over the period 1952 to 2016 was empirically investigated. Several provincial clusters were identified in the per capita (real) gross domestic product (GDP), consumption–income ratio, retail price, and consumer price inflation rates, using a club convergence and clustering procedure. The empirical findings are as follows. First, it was found that all series of the original data contain a significant nonlinear component. Second, it was observed that there are five significant clusters for the per capita income in China. Third, it was found that there are four significant clusters for the consumption–income ratio. Fourth, it was observed that there are four significant clusters for the retail inflation rates and two significant clusters for the consumer inflation rates in China. These results will enable local and central planners to implement economic growth, savings and price adjustment policies for different groups of provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast China can grow over the medium term is an important one. Using a Cobb–Douglas production function, we decompose the growth of trend GDP into those of the capital stock, labour, human capital and total factor productivity (TFP) and then forecast trend output growth out to 2030 using a bottom‐up approach based on forecasts that we build for each one of these factors. Our paper distinguishes itself from existing work in that we construct a forecast of Chinese TFP growth based on the aggregation of forecasts of its key determinants. In addition, our analysis is based on a carefully constructed estimate of the Chinese productive capital stock and a measure of human capital (based on Chinese wage survey data) that better reflects the returns to education in China. Our results suggest that Chinese GDP growth will slow from around 7% currently to approximately 5% by 2030, consistent with a gradual rebalancing of the Chinese economy characterized by a decline in the investment rate. Moreover, our findings underscore the growing importance of TFP growth as a driver of Chinese growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper simulates the effects of China's growing government debt in a computable equilibrium model of overlapping generations. Our model assumes that the government increases debt to finance its spending in the short run, and then increases taxes or cuts spending to keep the debt–GDP ratio constant. The spending‐driven government debt increases public capital and output in the short run, but decreases private investment, total capital stock, output, and net exports in the long run, and makes the future generations worse off. Among various means of debt control, a decrease in government spending seems to be the least harmful to private investment, capital stock, and output while an increase in capital taxation is most detrimental. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many questions regarding local economic phenomena involve issues of spatial and temporal dependence and heterogeneity. One of the main ideas of the socialist market economic system which was set up in 1978 in China is 'those becoming rich earlier bring along other people, all achieving the common richer eventually'. However, after several decades, having performed a series of balanced development strategies and policies, is this purpose true or not? How about the outcome of regional level of planning strategies under the socialist-market system? This paper focus on the intra provincial development, and uses per capita GDP of Guangdong, one of the most developed provinces in China to analyse the economic development of prefecture-level cities from 1978 to 2013 with a new exploratory space-time method. Three conclusions can be drawn as follows: first, the degree of regional economic development is gradually deepening along with rapid economic development in Guangdong province and the per capita GDP difference is gradually widening between the Pearl River Delta region and the non-Pearl River Delta region. The core-periphery relation is clear within the provincial level's development. Second, the trend and position of space-time paths are different across regions. Third, the space-time paths have not intersected across poor and rich regions during the last 33 years. Widening uneven development is concealed by the 'fast growth' economic phenomenon. The macro-economic environment has had some effects on different regions, with the effect on fast growing areas, such as the core region of the Pearl River Delta the most obvious. There is a lag effect on other undeveloped areas. At the same time, under the socialist market economic system, the market is the main motivation behind regional discrepancies, and some policies and strategies aimed at narrowing the gap have had limited success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely believed that the rotation and promotion system of local political chiefs plays an important role in China's economic miracle. In this paper, however, we focus on the potential cost of the inherent frequent turnover of local chiefs. Based on a new manually collected dataset on prefectural‐level local chiefs between 1983 and 2012, our empirical results suggest that the turnover of the local Chinese Communist Party (CCP) chief would lead to a 0.48 percentage point decrease in the local GDP growth rate in the current year. This effect is especially concentrated on more government‐affected fields, such as domestic investments, consumption and government expenditures. We also provide evidence that organization friction, especially the successor CCP chiefs' unfamiliarity with the city, his/her new colleagues and/or the working conditions, is one of the major potential reasons for such a negative turnover effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of Chinese activities in sub-Saharan African countries with respect to the growth performance of economies in that region. Using a Solow-type growth model and panel data for the period 1991 to 2010, we find that African economies that export natural resources have benefited from positive terms-of-trade effects. In addition, there is evidence for displacement effects of African firms due to competition from China. On the other hand, Chinese foreign investment and aid in Africa does not appear to have a significant impact on African growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper looks at the role of textile exports in Japan and China's economic development in the period of 1868-1930 as a major explanation for the ' Little Divergence' between the two countries in the context of the ' Great Divergence' between Europe and Asia. Because of textiles' large weighting in proto-industrialization gross domestic product ( GDP), we postulate that China's initial 20-year lag in textiles vis-à-vis Japan turns out to be fatal for its industry and that it eventually ordains totally different development patterns for the textile industry in the two countries, which ultimately led to different growth patterns for the overall economy. Although both countries saw rapid growth of textile exports, the nature of those exports and the entailed position of each country in the industry value chain of trade were quite different. We then use Granger causality tests to show that in one case ( Japan) it is in support of the export-led-growth hypothesis ( ELG) while in another ( China) it is not. Our study then also explains why Japan's industrial revolution took place much earlier than China's. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has become the largest CO2 emitter in the world for the rapid economic growth, and the large amount of CO2 emissions has caused worldwide concern. Based on the energy-related data of CO2 emissions in eight economic zones from 2000 to 2012, this paper built a STIRPAT-based multivariate linear model fitted by a ridge regression to examine the relationships between net CO2 emissions and a list of socioeconomic factors, including GDP per capita, population, energy intensity, and urbanization level. Regression results show that population, GDP per capita and urbanization level contribute to the increase of net CO2 emissions while energy intensity expresses an inhibitory effect. In addition, the elastic coefficients of different variables indicate that population scale and urbanization level play more important roles than GDP per capita and energy intensity in net CO2 emissions, where population scale contributes most significantly. Since the influence mechanisms of impact factors vary with scales of regional economy and characteristics of industry structure, some specific policy suggestions are also presented on how to mitigate the growth of CO2 emissions in each economic zone. This study have an important reference value for examining the impact factors of energy-related CO2 emissions and the academic value in terms of enriching low carbon economy research systems in China. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 36: 1282-1289, 2017 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using cross-country panel data, this study identifies and discusses major factors contributing to China's strong growth in the past four decades. China's low initial per capita income relative to its own long-run potential, combined with sound policy factors including a high investment rate, strong human capital, high trade openness and improved institutions, enabled the economy to converge with advanced economies in terms of income level. The shift-share analysis with industry-level data shows that strong labour productivity growth in the manufacturing sector largely contributed to China's overall labour productivity growth. Although labour reallocation from agriculture to the services sector made a positive contribution to aggregate labour productivity growth, labour productivity growth in the services sector itself was negative over the 1980-2010 period. China's average potential GDP growth is predicted to decline significantly in the coming decade, to 5%-6% and fall further to 3%-4%-due to the convergence effect and structural problems-unless China substantially upgrades its institutions and policy factors and improves productivity, particularly in its services sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic growth has brought improvements in many areas of child health, but its effects on anaemia among school‐aged children remain unknown. However, this is important because iron deficiency anaemia is common and is the main cause of disability‐adjusted life years for school‐aged children. In this study, we included 429,222 Chinese children aged 7–17 years from five consecutive national cross‐sectional surveys during 1995–2014. Using altitude‐adjusted haemoglobin concentration measured from capillary blood samples, we defined anaemia status according to World Health Organization's recommendation. We used logistic regressions weighted by provincial population to examine the association between provincial gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and anaemia, adjusting for sex, age, urban–rural location, regional socio‐economic status (SES), fixed effect of province, and clustering of schools. We used generalised additive mixed models to evaluate a potentially non‐linear relationship. For each 100% growth in GDP per capita, there was a 40% (odds ratio [OR] = 0.60; 95% confidence interval [CI; 0.56, 0.65]) reduction in anaemia. However, the association was weaker for girls and in cities with a lower SES. The association was weaker across 2005–2014 (OR = 0.75, 95% CI [0.62, 0.90]) compared with 1995–2005 (OR = 0.52; 95% CI [0.44, 0.61]), reflecting a weaker association when GDP per capita reaches around $2,000. The results were similar for moderate‐to‐severe anaemia. We concluded that economic growth has been associated with reductions in anaemia among school‐aged children in China but with fewer benefits for girls and those in poorer settings. Further economic development in China is unlikely to bring similar reductions in anaemia, suggesting that additional population level and targeted interventions will be needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "new era", a term introduced by President Xi Jinping, may also be identified as the Xi era, during which China will be transformed from a moderately well‐off to a strong and wealthy nation. In the new era, the Chinese Government will deepen economic reform, widen economic opening and enhance the quality of economic growth. / Our projections show that by 2020, Chinese real GDP per capita, in 2017 prices, will exceed US$10,000, an economic development milestone. By 2031, Chinese real GDP will surpass US real GDP (US$29.4 trillion vs US$29.3 trillion), making China the largest economy in the world. However, Chinese real GDP per capita will still lag behind the US significantly, amounting to only one‐quarter of that of the United States. By 2050, Chinese real GDP will reach US$82.6 trillion, compared to US$51.4 trillion for the United States. However, in terms of real GDP per capita, China will still lag significantly behind, at US$53,000, slightly less than the current level of US real GDP per capita, compared to US$134,000 for the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies report the growth effects from labor reallocation in China to be in the order of 1–2 percentage points per year, which would appear to be a significant fraction of China's per capita income growth. We show that the total factor productivity gains are an order of magnitude smaller, at only 0.25 percentage points per year. There are two reasons for this difference. First, the majority of studies have used a decomposition method that effectively assumes linear production functions. This results in values that are much larger than the more appropriate Denison–Kuznets method. Second, we also allow for sectoral differences in human capital. We conclude that the gains from labor reallocation may have been a far less important source of China's growth than is conventionally thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional inequality has attracted considerable interest among academics and policy makers. However, few studies have focused on regional inequality in comprehensive development. This study quantitatively estimated the regional inequalities and imbalances in China at multiple scales using gross domestic product (GDP), population, and the inter‐calibrated Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Line‐Scan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime stable light (NSL) data for 1992–2013. The results are as follows. First, the GDP‐derived inequalities exhibited an inverted U‐shaped pattern, while the NSL‐derived continued to decline. Second, for both GDP and NSL data, the inequality within the western region contributed most to the within‐region inequalities, while the eastern region contributed least. Third, the highest inter‐provincial inequality was observed in the developed area, while disparity within the underdeveloped area was the lowest. Finally, at the provincial level, the imbalances in comprehensive development generally decreased from 1992 to 2013. Moreover, a correlation analysis between the GDP‐ and NSL‐derived inequalities showed that there were some similarities in inequalities during 1992–2013, especially in the eastern region. These findings highlight that the regional inequalities in economic development and comprehensive development exhibit different tendencies, and hence it is crucial for both scholars and government to focus on this issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sharp regional differences in income and consumption patterns have characterized the Chinese development process. Focusing on the years 2007 and 2012, this work employs the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to assess the extent and the determinants of the urban/non-urban and coastal/inland disparity in consumption patterns. The analysis shows that the average gaps across the Chinese prefectures tend to be mainly explained, along both divides, by the mean differences in local endowments of the covariates that explain consumption over GDP ratio. In particular, at the basis of the observed regional disparity, there is an uneven allocation of FDI and foreign enterprises, as well as of domestic investments in fixed assets and welfare state provisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

▀ World trade has picked up in recent months, expanding at the fastest pace in six years in the first quarter, with the rise fairly evenly split between advanced and emerging markets. Stronger activity in China and a broader upturn in global investment have been key factors. But there are still reasons for caution. Although the 'cyclical' element in world trade is improving, the 'trend' element is not thanks to changes in supply chains and a lack of trade liberalisation., ▀ World trade growth looks set to reach about a 4% annual rate in Q1 2017, the fastest pace since 2011. Alternative freight-based indicators confirm the upturn. This suggests some modest near-term upside risk to our world growth forecasts., ▀ Recent growth has been evenly split between advanced countries and emerging markets (EM). In EM, the end of deep recessions in Russia and Brazil and an upturn in China have been key factors. China directly added 0.5 percentage points to annual world trade growth over recent months and firmer growth there has also pushed up commodity prices and the spending power and imports of commodity exporters., ▀ Another important positive factor is an improvement in investment, which is a trade-intensive element of world GDP. Rising capital goods imports across a range of countries suggest the drag on world trade from weak investment is fading., ▀ The decline in the ratio of world trade growth to world GDP growth over recent years has both cyclical and structural elements. But while the cyclical component now seems to be improving, there is little evidence that the structural part - responsible for between a half and two-thirds of the recent decline - is doing likewise., ▀ Key factors behind the structural decline in world trade growth are changes in supply chains and a lack of trade liberalisation/protectionism. Both are likely to remain a drag over the coming years. Meanwhile, a levelling-off of growth in China and drop back in commodity prices could curb the recent cyclical uptick. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overview: Dollar surge brings mixed consequences The strengthening dollar is now becoming a significant factor for global growth and our forecasts. The tradeweighted dollar is up 2.5% over the last month and over 12% on a year ago., Driving the latest rise are growing expectations of US rate hikes while monetary policy in many other major economies is headed in the opposite direction., The beginning of ECB QE has prompted a further slide in bond yields and the euro - which at 1.06/US$ is on course to fulfill our forecast of near-parity by year-end. Weak data in Japan also raises the chance of a further expansion of QE there later this year., We remain relatively positive about the advanced economies: we forecast G7 GDP growth at 2.2% for 2015 and 2.3% next. This month we have revised up German growth for 2015 to 2.4% - a four-year high., Robust US growth and a strong dollar are good news for the advanced economies. US import volume growth firmed to over 5% on the year in January, while the dollar surge potentially boosts the share of other advanced countries in this growing market., But for the emerging economies the picture is mixed. A stronger US may boost exports, but rising US rates are pulling capital away: there has been a slump in portfolio inflows into emergers in recent months. Emerging growth may also suffer from higher costs of dollar funding and a rising burden of dollar debt as currencies soften - the more so if US rates rise faster than markets expect., Moreover, emergers are also under pressure from a slowing China. Chinese import growth has been weak of late and commodity prices remain under downward pressure. A notable casualty has been Brazil, which we have downgraded again this month - GDP is expected to slump 1.1% this year., Emerging GDP growth overall is expected to slip to 3.7% this year, the lowest since 2009. And excluding China, emerging growth will be only 2.2% - the same as the G7 and the worst performance relative to the advanced economies since 1999. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]