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The increased availability of remote sensing products and new legislative agendas are driving a growing focus on farm‐level traceability and monitoring to tackle commodity‐driven deforestation. Here, we use data on land use change in Brazil (1985–2021) from Mapbiomas to demonstrate how analyses of the drivers of deforestation are sensitive to the scale of analysis: while pixel‐ or property‐level analyses identify proximate drivers of deforestation, analyses at larger scales (subnational regions or countries) capture more complex land use dynamics, including indirect land use change. We argue that initiatives which seek to monitor and address commodity‐driven deforestation—such as the European Union's deforestation due‐diligence regulation and the World Business Council on Sustainable Development's Greenhouse Gas Protocol—must be conscient of these wider land use dynamics. Only by measuring progress and defining success at multiple scales can initiatives for sustainable commodity sourcing create the right mix of incentives for addressing deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic changes in habitats are one of the main threats to biodiversity. Understanding how species diversity and their functions are affected by these changes is crucial to assess environmental impacts. In this work, we aim to understand how lizard composition, taxonomic and functional diversity respond to differences in native vegetation regeneration stages (conserved vegetation and open secondary vegetation) and agricultural land use in different vegetation types (Caatinga sensu stricto, Cerrado sensu stricto and Relictual Humid Forest) in Caatinga domain, Brazil. In more degraded areas (open secondary vegetation and agricultural areas), we found a decline in species evenness, shown by greater dominance of few species. Moreover, we found a lower functional evenness in agricultural areas than in areas of conserved vegetation, which suggests that a smaller portion of functional traits present greater dominance in more anthropized areas. We did not detect any significant differences in species richness, but we did registered differences in species composition in Relictual Humid Forest. Contrary to our expectations, lizard abundance was also greater in more degraded areas, probably as a result of the increased abundance of species benefited by anthropization. In this work, we advance the knowledge of how anthropogenic changes influence lizard diversity and emphasize the importance of analysing different facets of diversity and different habitat environments to understand how anthropization affects patterns in community ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conversion of Brazilian savanna into exotic pastures leads to the loss of dung beetles and a decrease in their contribution to ecological functions. We hypothesized that the dung beetle communities from exotic pastures would show greater significant differences between climatic zones, when contrasted to communities from Brazilian savanna in the same region, since dung beetle assemblages in pastures are more simplified. We assessed which variables (purpose of production, type of management, percentage the habitat per buffer, soil penetration resistance, pasture area and herd size) affect more the dung beetle community in exotic pastures. We carried out this study in 48 areas of native Brazilian savannas and exotic pastures distributed across four bioclimatic zones: BZ1, hot with three dry months; BZ2, hot with 4–5 dry months; BZ3, sub‐hot with 4–5 dry months and BZ4, meso‐thermal with 4–5 dry months of Minas Gerais State, Brazil. In each BZ, six areas of Brazilian savannas and six areas of exotic pasture were selected. In the Brazilian savanna areas, the species richness, abundance and biomass of dung beetles did not differ between the bioclimatic zones, unlike the exotic pastures. The composition of the dung beetle community was different between land use systems and between bioclimatic zones; the interaction between the two factors was also significant. Our results provide evidence that dung beetle communities active in exotic pastures are more susceptible to climatic environmental variations than communities from more complex and stable habitats, such as savannas. Finally, the best model suggested that all the six variables combined explained about 91% of the total variability in species composition observed between sampling sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioenergy could play a major role in decarbonizing energy systems in the context of the Paris Agreement. Large‐scale bioenergy deployment could be related to sustainability issues and requires major infrastructure investments. It, therefore, needs to be studied carefully. The Bioenergy and Land Optimization Spatially Explicit Model (BLOEM) presented here allows for assessing different bioenergy pathways while encompassing various dimensions that influence their optimal deployment. In this study, BLOEM was applied to the Brazilian context by coupling it with the Brazilian Land Use and Energy Systems (BLUES) model. This allowed investigating the most cost‐effective ways of attending future bioenergy supply projections and studying the role of recovered degraded pasture lands in improving land availability in a sustainable and competitive manner. The results show optimizing for limiting deforestation and minimizing logistics costs results in different outcomes. It also indicates that recovering degraded pasture lands is attractive from both logistics and climate perspectives. The systemic approach of BLOEM provides spatial results, highlighting the trade‐offs between crop allocation, land use and the logistics dynamics between production, conversion, and demand, providing valuable insights for regional and national climate policy design. This makes it a useful tool for mapping sustainable bioenergy value chain pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Our aim was to quantify the influence of climate and land use on major fires that occurred during the 2020 drought over the Brazilian Pantanal region. Location: Alto Paraguay Basin, central‐western flank of Brazil. Time period: 2003–2020. Methods: We calculated climatic and burned area anomalies and Spearman's correlation between precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST). We assessed water coverage to identify the impact of the 2020 drought. We produced fire recurrence maps, identified the areas that burned for the first time in 2020, and estimated the carbon loss. Lastly, we assessed the burned areas within land‐use classes and land tenure. Results: The anomalies showed that climatic variables in 2020 had an atypical behaviour, being hotter and drier than the historical average. The water surface area in the Pantanal has been decreasing annually from 2003, and in 2020 the reduction was 34% greater than the annual average. Burned areas in 2020 were 200% greater than the long‐term average, and 35% of the burned areas occurred for the first time in this year. We showed that 84% of these new fires occurred within natural vegetation, with 39% of the burned areas occurring in forests, an increase of 514%. Forest fires were responsible for 47% of the carbon loss in 2020. Finally, 70% of the fires in 2020 occurred within rural properties, 5% in indigenous lands and 10% in protected areas. Main conclusions: The unprecedented fires in 2020 were not only a result of atypical climate, but also a consequence of the intensification of fire‐related human activities. Rural properties play a major role in Pantanal fires, requiring law enforcement and a consistent plan for increasing the protection of the conservation areas. We argue that ineffective fire prevention and the lack of suppression strategies were also key in enhancing the magnitude of these fires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voluntary land registries can affect land use by facilitating both the public's ability to monitor land use and farmers' access to credit. We estimate the impacts of participation in a land registry on the conversion of natural vegetation to agricultural land use by examining the impacts of the rural environmental registry (CAR) in Brazil, using a dynamic land use model. We show that although participation in the CAR does not significantly affect crop area, it does influence pasture expansion, with variation by farm size and environmental compliance level. Our results provide insights for agricultural land‐use policies by illuminating how the intended environmental objectives of land registry programs might be undermined by credit policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To explore spatiotemporal changes in Hyacinth Macaw Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus distribution and the impacts of land use change over 25 years, across its vast range in central/eastern South America. Location: Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, South America, covering almost 3 million km2. Methods: We use a novel, multi‐temporal species distribution model, to combine both year‐specific occurrence records and land use/cover data in a single model that is subsequently projected over a land cover time series. We investigate changes in geographic range over 25 years and potential drivers of range extent at multiple spatial scales (10 and 30 km) and time‐lags (current and 10 years previously). We also assess protected area coverage and impacts from degazettement within the remaining range and highlight priority areas to search for undiscovered populations. Results: The modelled range of the species increased by 75,000 km2 to over 500,000 km2 between 1995 and 2019, during which period agriculture and pasture increased by 600,000 km2 within the species' extent of occurrence. Habitat suitability was influenced most strongly by distribution of palms, forest cover and changes in pasture over 10 years and usually by predictors measured at larger spatial scales. Just 8% of the macaw's modelled range falls within protected areas, and more than 20,500 km2 of protected areas overlapping with the range have been degazetted in the last 40 years. We highlight key areas to search for undiscovered populations in under‐sampled and remote areas, especially led by community citizen science initiatives involving indigenous groups and protected area staff. Main conclusions: Novel modelling methods, combining multi‐temporal occurrence records and land cover data, appropriate for small sample sizes per year, have revealed habitat dynamics and changes to the range of this threatened species over 25 years. The method may have wide applicability for a range of species, including elusive and poorly studied species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To provide novel evidence on the average impact of climate and land use changes on habitat suitability for tropical plants and to test previous conclusions on the relative importance of these two drivers in shaping future availability of habitat for tropical plant species. Location: Brazil's Atlantic Forest domain. Time period: Plant occurrences recorded between 1960 and 2014. Baseline climate from 1960 to 2000 and land use from 2015. Projected scenarios of climate for 2041–2060 and land use for 2050. Major taxa studied: Angiosperms. Methods: We modelled the habitat suitability of 2,232 species of angiosperms from the Atlantic Forest domain, endemic to Brazil, and estimated how future climate and land use may affect species‐level habitat suitability under a moderate and a business‐as‐usual scenario for the year 2050. Results: Our results suggest that climate change alone will, surprisingly, have only a modest negative impact on the mean habitat suitability, decreasing it by 2% (median = −5 to −7%, variation associated with scenarios). Land use change alone had a more consistent negative impact on habitat suitability, causing mean and median reductions of 4 to 6%. When the effects of climate and land use are combined, the mean habitat suitability was reduced by 4% (median = −9 to −11%). Main conclusions: The combined impacts of climate and land use changes were substantial, although smaller than expected. Habitat suitability decreased for most species, but it increased substantially for some species, suggesting that the distribution of impacts across species is markedly right skewed. The impacts were typically detrimental to small‐ranged species and neutral or beneficial to widespread species. Land use change rather than climate change will likely cause more losses to the habitat of Atlantic Forest plant species within the next several decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Private conservation lands are essential for protecting biodiversity, but few national‐level studies have assessed their coverage and the legal frameworks that support them. Here, we review the legal mechanisms enabling conservation on private lands in Brazil and evaluate these lands' potential to reinforce the national protected area system. We found that conserving native vegetation on private lands is the most important mechanism to protect biodiversity in five out of the six Brazilian biomes. Because Brazil has a law that mandates landowners to set aside conservation areas, remnants of native vegetation were protected rather than converted to other land uses in areas of old economic frontiers. These remnants can be the cornerstones of effective regional conservation systems. Still, upgrading these remnants to privately protected areas and integrating these privately protected areas into the national protected area system remains a challenge. We suggest that the Brazilian experience provides important lessons on how other countries can design innovative policies to recognize and expand private land conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential of Blue Carbon as an integral part of global climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies requires quantification of drivers and rates of organic carbon (OC) burial and storage. However, there is limited recognition of how land use impacts benthic assemblages, their bioturbation potential, and OC burial in mangrove forests and tidal flats. Here we evaluated the effects of mangrove deforestation on benthic bioturbation potential (BPc), sediment accretion rates (SARs), and OC and total nitrogen (TN) burial in mangrove soils and tidal flat sediments from three estuaries in tropical Brazil. SARs based on 210Pb dating varied significantly among undisturbed estuaries (2.1–18.6 mm yr−1) and the OC and TN burial rates were respectively 46% and 16% higher than global averages. The cleared mangrove sites had a twofold lower SAR, 40‐fold lower OC burial, and over 100‐fold lower TN burial when compared to undisturbed forests, revealing the pervasive impacts of land use. Variation in benthic assemblage structure and BPc among sites suggests that the composition and activity of macrofaunal communities may facilitate OC burial in some cases, yet the global extent and significance of bioturbation requires further study. Our work reveals a strong spatial variability in C burial in undisturbed mangrove forests and a decreased capacity of mangroves to accumulate C and sediments due to land use effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is expected that Brazil could play an important role in biojet fuel (BJF) production in the future due to the long experience in biofuel production and the good agro‐ecological conditions. However, it is difficult to quantify the techno‐economic potential of BJF because of the high spatiotemporal variability of available land, biomass yield, and infrastructure as well as the technological developments in BJF production pathways. The objective of this research is to assess the recent and future techno‐economic potential of BJF production in Brazil and to identify location‐specific optimal combinations of biomass crops and technological conversion pathways. In total, 13 production routes (supply chains) are assessed through the combination of various biomass crops and BJF technologies. We consider temporal land use data to identify potential land availability for biomass production. With the spatial distribution of the land availability and potential yield of biomass crops, biomass production potential and costs are calculated. The BJF production cost is calculated by taking into account the development in the technological pathways and in plant scales. We estimate the techno‐economic potential by determining the minimum BJF total costs and comparing this with the range of fossil jet fuel prices. The techno‐economic potential of BJF production ranges from 0 to 6.4 EJ in 2015 and between 1.2 and 7.8 EJ in 2030, depending on the reference fossil jet fuel price, which varies from 19 to 65 US$/GJ across the airports. The techno‐economic potential consists of a diverse set of production routes. The Northeast and Southeast region of Brazil present the highest potentials with several viable production routes, whereas the remaining regions only have a few promising production routes. The maximum techno‐economic potential of BJF in Brazil could meet almost half of the projected global jet fuel demand toward 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The anthropogenic climate change and land use change are considered two of the main factors that are altering biodiversity at the global scale. An evaluation that combined both factors can be relevant to detect which species could be the most vulnerable and reveal the regions of highest stability or susceptibility to biodiversity. We aimed to: (a) assess the effect of climate change and land use on the distribution of Cerrado plant species for different countries where they occur, (b) evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas (PAs) to safeguards species under different greenhouse–gas (GHG) emissions and land use scenarios, and (c) estimate the vulnerability of species based on protection effectiveness and habitat loss. Location: Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay. Methods: We modelled the distribution of 1,553 plant species of Cerrado and evaluated species range loss caused by present and future land use and two GHG for 2050 and 2080. We assessed species vulnerability combining the representativeness of species within conservation units with the loss of species' ranges outside PAs. Results: We found that climate change and land use will cause great damage to Cerrado flora by 2050 and 2080, even under optimistic conditions. The greatest impacts of land use will occur in the regions where the greatest richness will be harboured. The conservation of the species will be seriously affected since the PA network is not as effective in safeguarding them under current or future conditions. Main conclusions: The low level of protection together with the losses caused by the advance of agricultural lands will lead most species being highly vulnerable. Due to the distinct impacts of climate and land use over the three countries, conservation strategies should be implemented at transboundary and national levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work addresses the relationships between Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and water quality in the Paraíba do Sul River (PSR), located in one of the most populated regions in Brazil. We conducted a water sampling program (analyzing nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, turbidity, total carbon, oxygen concentration, and conductivity) during a severe drought period from 2014 to 2016. The 210 samples were spaced about 5 km apart from headwaters to the Atlantic Ocean and taken over 63 d. We calculated a water quality index and applied a self-organizing map (SOM) to explore the relationship between LULC and water quality. There was a significant influence on water quality from the urban area's socioeconomic profile. This observation reflects the influence of cities with a high population density and a low economic condition, which leads to further degradation and erosion of the riverbanks. The most degraded reservoir of the PSR (Funil) partially buffers these effects by retaining deposited sediments and nutrient loads, leading to downstream water quality improvement. Better management practices of the riverbanks in the lower reach contribute to additional water quality improvements. Three major clusters identified using the SOM had completely different and explainable water quality patterns, suggesting an abrupt change in water quality due to human interventions. This information is crucial to improve management projects for the river at a watershed level, and with the expectation of future water shortages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To propose and compare priority sites for conservation and restoration of woody plants under diverse climate and land use scenarios, considering socio-economic costs, presence of protected areas and distribution of forest remnants. Location The Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. Methods We used ecological niche modelling to estimate geographical distributions for 2,255 species under current and future climate scenarios, which we analysed in relation to spatially explicit land use projections, maps of forest remnants derived from remote sensing and socio-economic variables for each municipality within the Atlantic Forest region. We identified spatial priorities that complement the current network of protected areas under three different prioritization scenarios: (1) conservation of existing forest remnants only; (2) conservation of remnants followed by restoration of degraded habitat; and (3) unconstrained actions, in which management location is not defined a priori. We compared our results under different levels of land protection, with targets of 10%, 17% and 20% of the Atlantic Forest extent. Results Current forest remnants cover only 12% of the Atlantic Forest, so targets of 17% and 20% were achieved only through active restoration. Targets of 17% and 20% captured most species and represented on average 26%-34% of species' distributions. The spatial pattern of degraded habitats negatively affected representation of biodiversity and implied higher costs and reduced efficiency of planning. We did not observe major differences between conservation prioritizations based on contrasting climate change scenarios. Main conclusions Protection of forest remnants alone will not suffice to safeguard woody plant species under climate and land use changes; therefore, restoration actions are urgently needed in the Atlantic Forest. With integrated management actions and multicriterion nationwide planning, reaching the 17% of land protection of Aichi biodiversity targets will constitute an important step towards protecting Atlantic Forest biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is commonly recognized that large uncertainties exist in modelled biofuel-induced indirect land-use change, but until now, spatially explicit quantification of such uncertainties by means of error propagation modelling has never been performed. In this study, we demonstrate a general methodology to stochastically calculate direct and indirect land-use change ( dLUC and iLUC) caused by an increasing demand for biofuels, with an integrated economic - land-use change model. We use the global Computable General Equilibrium model MAGNET, connected to the spatially explicit land-use change model PLUC. We quantify important uncertainties in the modelling chain. Next, dLUC and iLUC projections for Brazil up to 2030 at different spatial scales and the uncertainty herein are assessed. Our results show that cell-based (5 × 5 km2) probabilities of dLUC range from 0 to 0.77, and of iLUC from 0 to 0.43, indicating that it is difficult to project exactly where dLUC and iLUC will occur, with more difficulties for iLUC than for dLUC. At country level, dLUC area can be projected with high certainty, having a coefficient of variation (cv) of only 0.02, while iLUC area is still uncertain, having a cv of 0.72. The latter means that, considering the 95% confidence interval, the iLUC area in Brazil might be 2.4 times as high or as low as the projected mean. Because this confidence interval is so wide that it is likely to straddle any legislation threshold, our opinion is that threshold evaluation for iLUC indicators should not be implemented in legislation. For future studies, we emphasize the need for provision of quantitative uncertainty estimates together with the calculated LUC indicators, to allow users to evaluate the reliability of these indicators and the effects of their uncertainty on the impacts of land-use change, such as greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past decades, Brazil made important progress in the conservation of forest ecosystems. Non-forest ecosystems ( NFE), in contrast, have been neglected, even though they cover large parts of the country and have biodiversity levels comparable to forests. To avoid losing much of its biodiversity and ecosystem services, conservation and sustainable land use policies in Brazil need to be extended to NFE. A strategy for conservation of Brazil's NFE should encompass the following elements: (1) creation of new large protected areas in NFE; (2) enforcement of legal restrictions of land use; (3) extension of subsidy programs and governance commitments to NFE; (4) improvement of ecosystem management and sustainable use in NFE; and (5) improvement of monitoring of land use change in NFE. If Brazil managed to extend its conservation successes to NFE, it not only would contribute significantly to conservation of its biodiversity, but also could take the lead in conservation of NFE world-wide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil has dramatically increased its agricultural area under cultivation, in the process becoming a major food exporter at the cost of natural forests. A new challenge is to meet the food demands of an expanding world population in the face of pessimistic climate change scenarios and the increasing scarcity of land. Can Brazil help meet rising world food demand while conserving its tropical rainforests? To address this question we simulate outcomes using a large dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model of Brazil to model land use over 20 years in 90 zones and 14 agricultural sectors. The model features a land-use change module based on a transition matrix obtained from satellite imagery. We analyze two scenarios of deforestation reduction, both linked to actual policy proposals. Model results indicate several mechanisms that allow food output to increase without expanding land supply. In particular, we stress the role of Brazil's vast, low-yield pasture area as a source of future cropland. Thus, we find that controlling deforestation leads to rather small decreases in food output--which could be neutralized by tiny exogenous productivity improvements. We conclude that the decrease in deforestation will not significantly compromise Brazilian agricultural supply capacity in the foreseeable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cerrado biome is Brazil's breadbasket and a major provider of ecosystem services, though these dual roles are increasingly at odds, in part because there are few mechanisms to protect remaining vegetation from large‐scale agricultural expansion. We assessed Cerrado conversion to soy using over 580,000 property boundaries, covering 77% of the biome that is eligible for commercial land use, and using microwatersheds, to cover 100% of eligible areas. Soy expansion accounted for 22% of conversion during 2003–14. Only 15% of clearing exceeded restrictions on private properties under the Forest Code (FC). However, 51% of soy farms have violated the FC, five times the rate of other farms. As a leading cause of both Cerrado conversion and FC violations, the soy sector has environmental and economic incentives to shift production to already cleared land. We used suitability maps to identify potential pathways for soy expansion across both old and new cropland frontiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the persistent impacts of fragmentation on aboveground structure of tropical forests is essential to understanding the consequences of land use change for carbon storage and other ecosystem functions. We investigated the influence of edge distance and fragment size on canopy structure, aboveground woody biomass (AGB), and AGB turnover in the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project (BDFFP) in central Amazon, Brazil, after 22+ yr of fragment isolation, by combining canopy variables collected with portable canopy profiling lidar and airborne laser scanning surveys with long‐term forest inventories. Forest height decreased by 30% at edges of large fragments (>10 ha) and interiors of small fragments (<3 ha). In larger fragments, canopy height was reduced up to 40 m from edges. Leaf area density profiles differed near edges: the density of understory vegetation was higher and midstory vegetation lower, consistent with canopy reorganization via increased regeneration of pioneers following post‐fragmentation mortality of large trees. However, canopy openness and leaf area index remained similar to control plots throughout fragments, while canopy spatial heterogeneity was generally lower at edges. AGB stocks and fluxes were positively related to canopy height and negatively related to spatial heterogeneity. Other forest structure variables typically used to assess the ecological impacts of fragmentation (basal area, density of individuals, and density of pioneer trees) were also related to lidar‐derived canopy surface variables. Canopy reorganization through the replacement of edge‐sensitive species by disturbance‐tolerant ones may have mitigated the biomass loss effects due to fragmentation observed in the earlier years of BDFFP. Lidar technology offered novel insights and observational scales for analysis of the ecological impacts of fragmentation on forest structure and function, specifically aboveground biomass storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]