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The grey parrot (Psittacus erithacus), once abundant, has become increasingly threatened due to the combined effects of capture for the global pet trade and habitat loss. Although grey parrots are well studied in captivity, effective conservation efforts require a better understanding of their ecological requirements in the wild. The aim of this paper is to quantify grey parrot behaviours across the annual cycle. To do that, we studied groups of grey parrots gathering in a natural forest clearing in the Nkuba Conservation Area, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Using parrot counts and focal sampling, combined with descriptive statistics, we found that an average of 40 grey parrots visited the clearing each day, following a regular pattern in which they first perched in the trees surrounding the clearing, vocalizing loudly, until the group landed in the clearing to feed, drink and interact with each other. Generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) showed that the time at which parrots arrived, landed at, and left clearings was influenced by the weather, seasonality and the month of the year. We also found that parrots shortened their visits when disturbed by predators or the presence of humans. Although the underlying mechanisms for grey parrot visits to forest clearings remains unclear, the consistency of this behaviour observed elsewhere in Africa and the feeding observed in the clearing in this study suggest that these area support important foraging habitat for the wild grey parrots. Therefore, ensuring the availability of such clearings is paramount to the long‐term survival of the species. We suggest that future efforts to protect grey parrots in their native habitats focus on identifying clearings visited by parrots, monitoring these clearings and allowing parrots to visit them without disturbance or risk of capture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an ex‐post impact assessment of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on international grain and oilseed trade. We use a commodity‐level empirical model to assess the counterfactual trade effects and evaluate the region‐specific global trade reallocation effects. We find that grain and oilseed imports from Ukraine were 78.2% below the counterfactual between February and July 2022. The Russia–Ukraine war caused substantial trade diversion, mainly benefiting countries in North America and Europe. The adjustment of global grain and oilseed trade operates primarily through price adjustments, with considerable heterogeneity across commodity groups. Our ex‐ante analysis demonstrates that the Ukraine–Russia war had substantial trade implications for the directly involved countries but only limited ones for the global grain and oilseed markets in terms of traded quantity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main focus of this paper is the relationship between export diversification and export performance. The key difference with respect to the previous literature is that export diversification is measured and related to export volume by destination country. The approach is empirical and an aggregate export demand setting is adopted to test the significance and influence of export diversification, measured via the Herfindahl index, on export performance by destination country. The econometric estimation is performed using export data for Spain to its partner countries for the period 1999–2011. The main finding is the positive relationship between Spanish export concentration and export performance by destination market. This finding is shown to be robust to several econometric specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep trade agreements (DTAs) are widespread and have taken the world beyond tariff liberalization in goods trade. As the importance of global supply chains and the services sector has increased across the world, shallow tariff reductions have given way to deeper commitments that address non‐tariff barriers and behind‐the‐border barriers to trade. This paper shows that DTA commitments undertaken since the Uruguay Round have increased trade in goods and trade in services by over half in the long term. Taking reduced‐form trade elasticity estimates to a general equilibrium quantitative model, DTAs contributed over 40% to the welfare gains from trade globally and even more for advanced economies. China, India and the Eastern European bloc benefited the most from trade agreements. While most of the gains in China and India came from tariff reductions, the gains to Eastern Europe came largely from deep commitments during its accession to the EU. Applying the DTA estimates to ex ante analysis of Brexit, the losses to the UK from its departure from the deepest trade agreement in the world would not be offset by new deep trade deals with key non‐EU trade partners. This paper is part of the Economica 100 Series. Economica, the LSE "house journal" is now 100 years old. To commemorate this achievement, we are publishing 100 papers by former students, as well as current and former faculty. Swati Dhingra is an Associate Professor of Economics at the LSE. Rebecca Freeman is a Senior Economist at the Bank of England and a Trade Associate at CEP, LSE. Hanwei Huang is a an Assistant Professor at the City University of Hong Kong. He received his PhD in Economics from the LSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non‐native plant pests and pathogens threaten biodiversity, ecosystem function, food security, and economic livelihoods. As new invasive populations establish, often as an unintended consequence of international trade, they can become additional sources of introductions, accelerating global spread through bridgehead effects. While the study of non‐native pest spread has used computational models to provide insights into drivers and dynamics of biological invasions and inform management, efforts have focused on local or regional scales and are challenged by complex transmission networks arising from bridgehead population establishment. This paper presents a flexible spatiotemporal stochastic network model called PoPS (Pest or Pathogen Spread) Global that couples international trade networks with core drivers of biological invasions—climate suitability, host availability, and propagule pressure—quantified through open, globally available databases to forecast the spread of non‐native plant pests. The modular design of the framework makes it adaptable for various pests capable of dispersing via human‐mediated pathways, supports proactive responses to emerging pests when limited data are available, and enables forecasts at different spatial and temporal resolutions. We demonstrate the framework using a case study of the invasive planthopper spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula). The model was calibrated with historical, known spotted lanternfly introductions to identify potential bridgehead populations that may contribute to global spread. This global view of phytosanitary pandemics provides crucial information for anticipating biological invasions, quantifying transport pathways risk levels, and allocating resources to safeguard plant health, agriculture, and natural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic sanctions are more popular than ever. But do they affect agricultural trade? Combining two new datasets and capitalizing on the latest developments in the empirical structural gravity literature, we investigate the effects of sanctions on international trade of agricultural products. We find that trade sanctions impede agricultural trade, whereas other sanctions do not show any significant impact. Complete trade sanctions have led to about a 67% decrease in the agricultural trade between the sanctioned and sanctioning countries, or a corresponding tariff equivalent of 25%, and we also obtain significant estimates for partial sanctions. At the industry level, we find substantial heterogeneity depending on the sanctioning and sanctioned countries, the type of sanctions used, and the direction of trade flows. The 2014 sanctions on Russia substantially decreased Russia's agricultural trade, mainly due to reduced trade with the EU but also due to reduced trade with other countries. Although no definitive evidence exists that sanctions alter the actions of governments of receiving countries, this paper provides broad evidence that sanctions hamper agrifood trade and hurt producers, consumers, and real output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops an oligopolistic model with consumption externalities to study (i) the policy interaction between tariffs and product standards; (ii) how such interaction may affect the welfare justification of national treatment (NT) in product standards. Absent NT, tariff reductions can lead to more discriminatory standards against foreign firms. Imposing NT eliminates discrimination but can induce higher tariffs which tend to undermine efficiency. As a result, the welfare justification of NT is stronger when tariffs are constrained. These findings suggest that the World Trade Organization's success in tariff liberalization can strengthen the case for its NT‐based approach to product standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding international transmission mechanism that generates the world business cycle is of immense interest. In this paper, we compile a rich global dataset and utilize a trade‐linked structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a relatively realistic identification scheme to construct a worldwide dynamic interdependency system. Empirical results indicate that the trade‐linked SVAR system can largely capture the common dynamic properties of national business cycle fluctuations, providing a meaningful transmission foundation to the world business cycle derived from dynamic factor models. Based on the worldwide trade‐linked SVAR system, we further shed light on three crucial topics in international economics. The findings and methods in this paper help to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of recent trade dispute between world major economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since joining the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexico has increased its meat production and exports and become more dependent on imported feedstuffs such as genetically engineered (GE) corn. Mexico recently banned the use of GE corn in corn‐based foods and called for a gradual substitution away from the use of GE corn for other uses (e.g., feed). This paper considers how a complete ban on GE corn might affect Mexican households using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impact over the medium run (5 years). Results indicate that Mexico decreases corn imports by 76.9% and increases corn production by 65.6%—an increase that would require 3.3 million hectares more land for corn. The policy leads to a 24.8% increase in Mexico's corn price and up to a 6% increase in the prices of other agricultural products. But Mexico might have difficulty shifting land to corn; as such, we consider an alternative scenario that restricts land movements. We find that impacts are further exacerbated in this scenario—for example, corn prices triple. Our final contribution is to pair these results with a compensating variation calculation based on the almost ideal demand system. We find that Mexican households would need to spend, on average, between 6.7 and 13.9% more on food, depending on the scenario, to compensate for the resulting price escalations. Ultimately, our results show that a move toward greater food sovereignty in Mexico is ultimately borne by consumers via higher food prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through the analysis of statistical data, some scholars believe that the globalization of trade is declining, and de‐globalization has become a trend, even since the financial crisis in 2008. However, the superficial decline of global trade volume cannot be taken as a corollary of the de‐globalization. It needs go deep into the structural analysis, and "globalization or de‐globalization" should be discussed by analyzing whether the global trade structure has changed. This paper finds that during 2007–2017, the global trade resistances are clearly classified, and trade resistance in the global community has increased significantly. Second, an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to divide global trade relations into two categories: intimate trade relations, whose barriers are mainly related to geographical distance; and unfriendly trade relations with high artificial barriers. Third, the trade purity indicator (TPI) is introduced to describe the trade environment of countries, and its evolution indicates after the financial crisis and for quite a long time, the structure of global trade has not changed much. And it shows some deterioration trend and structural adjustment after 2015, which indicates an opportunity for the emergence of de‐globalization in such an international environment full of uncertainty and challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Regional Science Policy & Practice is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Using an original dataset and theoretical framework, this paper offers a reinterpretation of the French wine international trade after external shocks during wine globalisation based on trade policy. To maintain its external position, particularly after the arrival of phylloxera in the 1860s, French authorities promoted the development of Algerian vineyards by complex discrimination in tariffs. We highlight a negative relationship between discrimination in tariff policy and market share for wine trade partners to the detriment of Spain, Italy, and Portugal and in favour of Algeria. By combining a counterfactual analysis and two theoretical models, we consider Algeria as a new competitor in an imperfect competition. Moreover, using data of wine quality at a disaggregated level, we reveal that the control of imports by France allowed the diversification of the range of exports and maximisation of profits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is based on the use of Flegg's location quotients (FLQ) and proposes a novel procedure for the estimation of the unknown parameter δ in regions with and without input–output frame availability. Applied to data for the Korean regions for the year 2015, firstly the determination of the optimal δ is addressed by solving a general optimization problem and, secondly, a regression equation is proposed to estimate the value of δ from the explanatory variables of interregional road freight transport (IRFT) and imports from the rest of the world (IROW). The results obtained show a lower bias in regard to the true values of the regional inputs coefficients in relation to other methods based on location quotients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

ABSTRACT This paper compares two ex ante measures of the benefits of a project with supply uncertainty: compensating option price, the willingness to pay for a project, and equivalent option price, the willingness to accept to forego a project. The paper shows that compensating option price does not generally rank three or more projects correctly, even when the projects only impose a change in a single good. Equivalent option price, like equivalent variation with certain outcomes, always ranks three or more projects correctly. This paper also presents a method to empirically estimate equivalent option price using estimates of the benefits of certain changes. This approach is practically important so that the same study results can be used to estimate equivalent option price even as new projects are developed or as changes occur in the scientific information regarding the probabilities of various project outcomes. An application of the empirical method estimates the benefits of a policy to improve air and water quality when there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While a VAT should in principle be neutral with respect to international trade, it may in practice function as a tax on exporters' input purchases if firms receive incomplete VAT refunds. Using data for over 100 countries that span the majority of historical VAT adoption episodes, this paper finds that—consistent with this hypothesis—the VAT reduces the exports of an industry with a 10 percentage point higher intermediate goods share of output by over 8% relative to an industry with a lower share. This effect is driven by developing countries and is absent for high‐income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the interplay between the biophysical and economic geographies of climate change impacts on agriculture. It does so by bridging the extensive literature on climate impacts on yields and physical productivity in global crop production, with the literature on the role of adaptation through international trade in determining the consequences of climate change impacts. Unlike previous work in this area, instead of using a specific crop model or a set of models, we employ a statistical meta-analysis that encompasses all studies available to the IPCC-AR5 report. This permits us to isolate specific elements of the spatially heterogeneous biophysical geography of climate impacts, including the role of initial temperature, differential patterns of warming, and varying crop responses to warming across the globe. We combine these climate impact estimates with the Global Trade Analysis Project model of global trade in order to estimate the national welfare changes that are decomposed into three components: the direct (biophysical impact) contribution to welfare, the terms of trade effect, and the allocative efficiency effect. We find that when we remove the spatial variation in climate impacts, the terms of trade impacts are cut in half. Given the inherent heterogeneity of climate impacts in agriculture, this points to the important role of trade in distributing the associated welfare impacts. When we allow the biophysical impacts to vary across the empirically estimated uncertainty range taken from the meta-analysis, we find that the welfare consequences are highly asymmetric, with much larger losses at the low end of the yield distribution. This interaction between the magnitude and heterogeneity of biophysical climate shocks and their welfare effects highlight the need for detailed representation of both in projecting climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between the 1940s and 1970s, Spain used a variety of economic policies that hindered international trade. Because the mix of tariffs, quotas, administrative barriers, and exchange rate regimes varied greatly over time, the quantification of the effect of the various trade policies on international trade in this period is particularly elusive. In this paper, we use historical bilateral trade flows and a structural gravity model to quantify the evolution of Spain's border thickness, a summary measure of its barriers to international trade. We find that Spain's borders in the period 1948–75 were thicker than those of any other country in Western Europe, even after the liberalization of trade that started in 1959. These comparatively higher impediments to international trade implied substantial negative effects on consumer welfare. We estimate that accumulated welfare costs over the period 1948–75 exceed 20 per cent of a year's total consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Regional Science Policy & Practice is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Both bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements have grown in number over the past three decades, but their potential impact on trade may be different. This paper sheds light on the ex post (partial) effect of bilateral versus plurilateral trade agreements using the most recent econometric developments for the gravity equation on a dataset that covers 211 countries and territories over the period 1948–2013. Our results show that plurilateral trade agreements have significantly increased trade among trading partners, while this has not been the case for bilateral trade agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Regional Science Policy & Practice is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Recent evidence suggests shifts (structural breaks) in the volatility of returns causes non‐normality by significantly increasing kurtosis. In this paper, we endogenously detect significant shifts in the volatility of oil prices and incorporate this information to estimate Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) to accurately forecast large declines in oil prices. Our out‐of‐sample performance results indicate that the model, which incorporates both time varying volatility (without making any distributional assumptions) and shifts in volatility, produces more accurate VaR forecasts than several benchmark methods. We make a timely contribution as the recent more frequent occurrences of unexpected large oil price declines has gained significant attention because of its substantial impact on the financial markets and the global economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Central banks in emerging countries frequently build‐up (diminish) reserves while attempting to depreciate (appreciate) their currencies. Even if these interventions are effective, they often entail various costs. Basu (2012), nonetheless, proposes a model in which the sole announcement of an intervention schedule leads to a desired exchange rate without actually buying or selling foreign currency. In this paper, we present a generalization that allows for imperfect credibility of promises. Namely, market dealers know that the central bank carries strategic incentives when announcing its schedule and may not perfectly believe it. We show that, under this setup, it may be impossible to achieve the targeted rate without changing the level of international reserves. However, committing to a schedule, despite being imperfectly credible, outperforms unannounced discretionary interventions. This is the case because it reduces the amount of foreign currency trading required for a central bank to meet its desired exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper looks at the role of external trade and foreign equity finance in determining the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on firm‐level employment growth in a major developing economy: India. Exchange rate uncertainty is found to affect firm‐level employment growth adversely on average, but the impact depends upon firm‐level characteristics such as exposure to foreign trade through imports and exports and firm‐level mark‐up. Foreign equity finance reduces the negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on employment growth but the same cannot be said about access to domestic equity finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The steady growth of international trade in intermediate goods and services has made the relationship between trade and the international division of labour more complex. For 39 countries, the author decomposes the employment effects of international trade into five components, namely, the labour content of - or employment generated by - (1) exports; (2) imports; (3) the import content of exports; (4) the export content of imports; and (5) the third-country import content of imports. He shows that in 2009, trade in intermediate goods accounted for some 88 million jobs - 14 per cent of all jobs generated by international trade - while the import content of exports accounted for 44 million jobs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines data on intra‐Australian trade and Australian international trade before and after the establishment of an Australian Customs union at Federation in 1901. The paper infers from these data that the Federation customs union cannot be simply summarised as ‘nationalising’ of Australian trade relationships. Internal trade ties did not unambiguously strengthen outside of Victoria. And while there is evidence that Victoria and New South Wales did redirect exports from the rest of the world to the rest of Australia, the data also indicate that the smaller states actually strengthened their exports to the rest of the world, perhaps as a resort in the face of a customs union that was a benefit to the larger states and not themselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Solomon Hsiang's study, which was recently published in Science, has caused extensive discussion by indicating that future climate change may exert influences on the agricultural yield, labor supply, and energy demand, among others of the United States. Based on the above study, we use an optimized input‐output model to evaluate the economic ripple effect (ERE) of the United States on the world due to climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 with different increases in the annual mean temperature (AMT; 1, 1.5, and 2°C) between 2020 and 2100. The results show that if a loss of gross domestic product of 0.88% occurs with a 1°C AMT increase in the United States, the ERE of approximately 0.12% will be generated onto the global gross domestic product; with a 2°C increase, the ERE will triple. The time variation trend of the ERE conforms to the future variations in AMT. The degree of this effect on other regions of the world is closely related to the trade links between the United States and economic aggregates. Among these regions, Canada shows the greatest impact, followed by China. The ERE that China suffers may increase by 4.5 times as the AMT in the United States increases from 1 to 2°C. In cold regions, the benefit from global warming will decrease due to the ERE from other regions, which will inhibit their economic development. This paper aims to provide new perspectives and data‐based support for regions around the world to cope with climate change and to develop policies by studying the ERE behind international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Abstract: This paper investigates the case of shipments of containers with avocados from farmers in Africa to grocery store shelves in the European Union. We find 3 predominant challenges to containerized shipping that effectively become trade barriers: international trade cost, lead time uncertainty, and security risks. We use activity theory to describe, understand, and analyze the shipping activity in the international trade ecosystem with focus on physical objects and their related information. We find that the shipment becomes problematic and can be characterized as a runaway object in the heterogeneous and multiple organizational setting of international trade. Our analysis of shipping reveals (1) inefficient collaboration across loosely coupled activity systems and (2) fragmented information infrastructures. We propose the solution of Shipping Information Pipeline, a shared information infrastructure, thus facilitating collaboration in containerized shipping and contributing to lowering trade barriers. Shipping Information Pipeline can significantly improve containerized shipping resulting in estimated potential benefits of up to 4.7% growth in global GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

It is important to note that many illegally traded genuine tiger products are suspected to have originated from the intensive tiger farming operations that produce tiger bones and other body parts for TCM products (CITES CoP18 Doc. 71.1, Annex 4). This letter is a response to the recently published paper by Khanwilkar, Sosnowski, and Guynup (2022) that described a decade of importation of tiger parts and products into the United States. In either scenario, despite the presence of tiger trade violations in the USFWS LEMIS data for TCM products, this is not scientific evidence of tiger trade. [Extracted from the article]

Should Australia be concerned about the consequences of a possible outbreak of protection between the US and China, two of Australia's largest trading partners? Using the Global Trade Analysis Project model, this paper describes the impact of a 45 per cent tariff imposed by the US on Chinese imports, as flagged by US president-elect Donald Trump during the election campaign. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is reduced in both the US and China, with no appreciable revival of US manufacturing. Terms-of-trade effects cause only minor macroeconomic impacts on Australia. In itself, a US-China tariff would not cause significant global economic damage but could have important demonstration effects. Worldwide tariff hikes would take many economies into recession and reduce world trade volumes by a third. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

ABSTRACT An acceleration of the wine industry globalization process has occurred in the last decades due to increased competition, the emergence of new producers and exporters, and the existence of new wine consuming countries. All this has led to global changes in production strategies and marketing. The aim of this paper is to analyze the changes that have occurred in the global wine export dynamics and define its determinants; to do so a gravity model was estimated in which (a) the main wine producers and consumers involved in international trade are present, (b) two distinctive scenarios are present: one of continuous change (1988-1999), and one of an established export dynamic (2002-2012), and (c) bulk and bottled wines are considered. The main results show that higher incomes, lower prices, cultural and geographical affinities, and trade agreements promote wine exports; the expansion of bottled wine trade, especially within the EU, is particularly highlighted. [EconLit citations: C40; F14; Q1]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a multi‐stage general‐equilibrium model of global value chains (GVCs) and studies the specialization of countries within GVCs in a world with barriers to international trade. With costly trade, the optimal location of production of a given stage in a GVC is not only a function of the marginal cost at which that stage can be produced in a given country, but is also shaped by the proximity of that location to the precedent and the subsequent desired locations of production. We show that, other things equal, it is optimal to locate relatively downstream stages of production in relatively central locations. We also develop and estimate a tractable, quantifiable version of our model that illustrates how changes in trade costs affect the extent to which various countries participate in domestic, regional, or global value chains, and traces the real income consequences of these changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influential papers on how credit constraints affect international trade have shown a tendency to assume that asset tangibility and the share of external borrowing are exogenous industry characteristics that are time‐ and country‐invariant. In the finance literature, however, the share of external borrowing is viewed as endogenous and dependent on the amount of collateral that a firm can provide (and thus, implicitly, on its asset tangibility). Drawing from the finance literature, I hypothesize that there are supply‐side factors that exert substantial influences on the share of external financing. I test this new perspective with country‐ and industry‐specific measures of asset tangibility and external borrowing. I find that (i) the share of external borrowing increases in asset tangibility, and (ii) the sectoral rankings of asset tangibility and the share of external borrowing vary significantly across countries. Further, I develop a theoretical model to investigate the impact of financial development and asset tangibility on the demand and supply of external finance and exports. The model yields theoretical predictions that are consistent with, and provide intuition for, the above results. Both the model and my empirical results demonstrate that industries with more tangible assets export more from countries with high levels of financial development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the role of the transportation sector in world trade. We build a spatial model that centers on the interaction of the market for (oceanic) transportation services and the market for world trade in goods. The model delivers equilibrium trade flows, as well as equilibrium trade costs (shipping prices). Using detailed data on vessel movements and shipping prices, we document novel facts about shipping patterns; we then flexibly estimate our model. We use this setup to demonstrate that the transportation sector (i) attenuates differences in the comparative advantage across countries; (ii) generates network effects in trade costs; and (iii) dampens the impact of shocks on trade flows. These three mechanisms reveal a new role for geography in international trade that was previously concealed by the frequently‐used assumption of exogenous trade costs. Finally, we illustrate how our setup can be used for policy analysis by evaluating the impact of future and existing infrastructure projects (e.g., Northwest Passage, Panama Canal). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of the climate policy to meet the 2 °C target, actions in all economic sectors, including agriculture, are required to mitigate global greenhouse gas emissions. While there has been an ever‐increasing focus on agricultural greenhouse gas (AGHG) emissions, limited attention has been paid to their economic drivers in the globalized world economy and related mitigation potentials. This paper makes a first attempt to trace AGHG emissions via global trade networks using a multiregional input‐output model and a complex network model. Over one third of global AGHG emissions in 2012 can be linked with products traded internationally, of which intermediate trade and final trade contribute 64.2% and 35.8%, respectively. Japan, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Hong Kong are the world's five largest net importers of embodied emissions, while Ethiopia, Australia, Pakistan, India, and Argentina are the five largest net exporters. Some hunger‐afflicted developing countries in Asia and Africa are important embodied emission exporters, due to their large‐scale exports of agricultural products. Trade‐related virtual AGHG emission transfers shape a highly heterogenous network, due to the coexistence of numerous peripheral economies and a few highly connected hub economies. The network clustering structure is revealed by the regional integration of several trading communities, while hub economies are collectors and distributors in the global trade network, with important implications for emission mitigation. Achieving AGHG emission reduction calls for a combination of supply‐ and demand‐side policies covering the global trade network. Key Points: Over one third of global AGHG emissions can be linked with intermediate trade (64.2%) and final trade (35.8%)Trade‐related virtual AGHG emission transfers shape a highly heterogenous networkThe hub economies are of great importance on global AGHG emission mitigation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 1980s and 1990s, Australia moved from a protectionist trade policy to very open trade policies. This paper analyses the evolution of these policies in the twenty‐first century: first signing bilateral agreements in the 2000s and then participating in negotiation of mega‐regional agreements (TPP/CPTPP and RCEP). To some extent these shifts have reflected stasis in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and its inability to make agreements on new areas. Underlying drivers of Australia's beyond‐WTO trade agreements have been the fragmentation of trade along global value chains and the emergence of new trade technologies associated with the spread of the internet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

EU trade policy initiatives since 1995 offer better products at lower prices with estimated annual savings of up to €60 billion annually, which is especially beneficial for low‐income households who spend a larger share of income on basic commodities. If trade is so beneficial, why is there so much discontent? The paper argues that a convincing communication strategy in support of trade policy is key for trade policy legitimacy and gives the example of the European Commission's #FTAcomes2town platform based on firm‐level data. Politicians can zoom in across all EU members to find examples of small companies in their constituency exporting and creating jobs due to a trade measure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]