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We study the evolution of topics in economics and their geographical specialization by analyzing 13,233 papers from seven top journals between 1985 and 2012 and their forward citations. The share of U.S. publications declines from 75% to 64% with a corresponding increase of the European share from 12% to 24%. We use topic modeling and document the evolution of the discipline over 27 years. We estimate, with a quasi‐structural model, the citation lag distribution for 18 different topics and three large geographical areas. The modal citation lag is about 6.7 years in the entire sample and 4.8 years for citations from the top 100 journals. We quantify (1) the home bias effect in citations, (2) how it fades away over time, (3) the long lasting impact of U.S. publications vis‐à‐vis other geographical areas, and (4) the higher speed of diffusion and faster obsolescence in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines news media coverage of hydraulic fracturing in Canada over a five-year period in five newspapers. Hydraulic fracturing, or 'fracking,' has reenergized the North American oil and gas market. This technology has increased economic growth, but it also comes with unknown and uncertain environmental and public health risks. Regulation of the fracking industry varies globally. In Canada there are three provinces that engage in large volume fracking and four provinces that have placed a moratorium on fracking. This paper demonstrates that the Canadian fracking story is about five frames: water pollution, economic benefits, uncertain risks, moratoriums, and energy independence. There is a difference between coverage in the two national newspapers as well as a difference in national and provincial coverage. In Nova Scotia, where fracking is banned, the media focuses primarily on environmental issues and benefits to the local economy. In Saskatchewan, where fracking for oil is an essential part of the economy, the media focuses on economic benefits and downplays other frames. Overall, across the five papers, the media coverage is highly selective and focuses on particular stories about the economy or the environment, but not both. Quelle est la chronique de la fracturation hydraulique au Canada? Cet article fait état de la couverture médiatique liée à la fracturation hydraulique au Canada par cinq journaux sur une période de cinq ans. La fracturation hydraulique a revitalisé le marché nord-américain des hydrocarbures. Cette technologie favorise la croissance économique, mais comporte également des risques écologiques et sanitaires inconnus et incertains. La réglementation régissant l'industrie de la fracturation varie selon les pays. À l'échelle canadienne, trois provinces ont réalisé d'importantes opérations de fracturation et quatre provinces ont imposé un moratoire à la fracturation hydraulique. Cet article montre que le cadrage médiatique de la fracturation hydraulique repose sur cinq thématiques : la pollution hydrique, les retombées économiques, l'incertitude liée aux risques, les moratoires et la souveraineté énergétique. Le cadrage médiatique varie entre les deux journaux nationaux ainsi qu'entre les médias nationaux et provinciaux. En Nouvelle-Écosse, où la fracturation est interdite, les médias mettent l'accent sur les questions environnementales et les retombées pour l'économie locale. En Saskatchewan, où la fracturation pour extraire du pétrole joue un rôle économique primordial, les médias se concentrent sur les retombées économiques et minorent l'importance des autres thématiques. Dans l'ensemble, les cinq journaux appliquent un filtre sélectif dans le traitement du sujet et publient des reportages spécifiques portant sur l'économie ou sur l'environnement, mais pas les deux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a general equilibrium model of a developing economy with a capital intensive formal sector and a large informal sector with sector-specific capital to analyse the effects of investments on the sectoral returns to capital, sectoral wage rates, and composition of output and employment. Beginning with capital market disequilibrium (unequal sectoral rates of return) and labour market distortion (formal-informal wage gap), the model traces the evolution of the economy till capital market equilibrium is attained. The investments in the formal sector equalise the wages (a 'turning point' in growth à la Lewis) and reduces the size of the informal sector. The sectoral rates of returns equalise only if there is no factor intensity reversal, otherwise the economy specialises in the production of formal goods. The investments in the informal sector equalise the rates of return, do not affect the size of the formal sector and finally, a formal-informal wage gap persists provided factor intensities are not reversed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the UK productivity puzzle using new data on outputs and inputs and clarifying the role of output mismeasurement, input growth and industry effects. Our data indicate an implied labour productivity gap of 13 percentage points in 2011 relative to the productivity level on pre‐recession trends. We find that: (a) the labour productivity puzzle is a TFP puzzle, since it is not explained by the contributions of labour or capital services; (b) the reallocation of labour between industries deepens rather than explains the puzzle (i.e. there has been a reallocation of hours away from low‐productivity industries and toward high productivity industries); (c) capitalization of R&D does not explain the productivity puzzle; (d) assuming increased scrapping rates since the recession, a 25% (50%) increase in depreciation rates post‐2009 can potentially explain 15% (31%) of the productivity puzzle; (e) industry data show that 35% of the TFP puzzle can be explained by weak TFP growth in the oil & gas and finance sectors; and (f) cyclical effects via factor utilization could potentially explain 17% of the productivity puzzle. Continued weakness in finance would suggest a future lowering of TFP growth to around 0.8% p.a. from a baseline of 0.9% p.a. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the effectiveness of debt relief to stimulate economic growth in the most heavily indebted poor countries. We develop a neoclassical framework with a conflict of interest between the altruistic donor and the recipient government, and model conditionality as an imperfectly enforceable dynamic contract. In contrast to the recent practice of fully cancelling debt, optimal incentive‐compatible conditionality is accompanied by a concessionality level that implies a combination of subsidized loans and outright grants. The optimal concessionality level depends on the recipient's access to international financial markets and on the strength of the conflict of interest. Incentive‐compatible transfers with optimal concessionality levels generate substantial welfare gains. If the donor does not implement the optimal concessionality level and provides subsidized loans only, then the effectiveness of transfers decreases in the long run with severe welfare implications. In contrast, transfers are less effective in the short run if the donor offers outright grants only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical evidence is scarce on whether firms set profit‐maximizing prices, as these typically depend delicately on details of difficult‐to‐observe strategic interactions. To avoid this problem, this paper provides a detailed case study of the Swedish Tobacco Monopoly's pricing with data from 1916 to 1959. Prices are found to be below those that maximize the expected net present value of profits. However, the difference between actual and optimal price diminishes over time, and towards the end of the period the two are almost indistinguishable. The net present value of actual profits is approximately 60% of what could have been obtained. Overall, the pricing patterns appear more consistent with the firm learning about demand conditions than being the result of maximization of something other than profits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The economics literature typically uses counts of casualties as a measure of conflict intensity despite the fact that the units of observation vary considerably in population size. When analysing the impact of conflict on economic growth, the use of counts relies on the assumption that a given number of casualties affects large and small populations in the same way. Using within- and between-country evidence, this paper demonstrates that this standard assumption can be rejected. A per capita model of conflict intensity that captures local effects of violence provides a more consistent empirical framework for both between-country and within-country studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses an instrumental variables approach to estimate the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Instrumental variables estimates show that economic growth has a significant negative contemporaneous effect on trade openness, while trade openness has a significant positive effect on economic growth. A 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of trade over GDP is associated with a short-run increase in growth of approximately 0.5% in a given year; the cumulative long-run effect on the level of GDP per capita is larger, reaching about 2%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among low- and middle-income countries, there is evidence that populations experiencing rapid political and economic transition have particularly high burdens of disease and disability from mental health conditions. This paper undertakes a political economy analysis of mental health in Vietnam to enhance knowledge translation, notably how both explicit and tacit knowledge can be used to promote evidence-based policy making. It argues that Vietnam's experience illustrates the need to better understand, not only how transition transforms societies, but how it impacts on the mental health needs and care of populations. The political economy of transition in Vietnam has so far given highest priority to economic growth through integration with the world economy and public sector reform. There is a need to recognise that transition in Vietnam poses both a potential threat to the care of people with mental health needs, and an opportunity to develop mental health services appropriate to local contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

I construct a monthly index of economic uncertainty for Australia. Economic uncertainty rose to historically high levels during the financial crisis and remained elevated until late 2013. The index is: higher around recessions, elections, monetary policy surprises and some major events; tends to increase faster than it decreases; and is driven by both domestic and foreign factors. I use the index to assess how uncertainty affects the Australian economy. Consistent with the 'real options' channel of uncertainty, I find that it reduces investment and employment growth. Similarly, uncertainty raises the household saving ratio, consistent with the 'precautionary savings' channel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theoretical literature on fiscal federalism has identified several channels through which government decentralization could affect economic growth. Much of the literature focuses on the efficiency aspects of a decentralized provision of public services, but decentralization may also increase growth by raising the ability of the political system to innovate and carry out reforms. In contrast, some authors argue that decentralization increases corruption and government inefficiency, and thus may diminish growth. Given this theoretical ambiguity, several studies have attempted to identify the effect of decentralization on economic growth empirically over the last two decades. We review and conduct a meta-analysis of this empirical literature. Based on our analysis, we point out open questions and discuss possible ways to answer them. ( JEL H77, O43, C52) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The aim of this article is to comment on ‘Healthier Australians’, Chapter 2 in the Productivity Commission's report Shifting the Dial. The report elevates health and wellbeing to a central role in lifting the nation's productivity. The main recommendations centre around better information in the health care system and improving the architecture of the system to ensure more decentralised decision making. If acted upon, these solid building blocks could provide significant opportunities to save lives and improve the health of the population and the wealth of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food standards have existed since the beginning of trade and exchange, but have increased and expanded in recent years, affecting global and local value chains. This has triggered vigorous debates on the impacts on trade and development. Standards may simultaneously enhance economic efficiency and redistribute rents, complicating policy analysis and implying that "the economics" and "the politics" of standards are often hard to separate. While substantial research has contributed important insights, dynamic aspects of standards have not received much attention. I present a framework to illustrate some dynamic economic and political aspects of standards in closed and open economies. This framework integrates changes over time in preferences, implementation costs, and protectionist pressures as determinants of standards, and suggests explanations for persistent differences in food standards across countries. Hysteresis in standards can persist due to protectionist motives, even if the initial standards were not introduced for protectionist reasons. I use some historical cases to document both the persistence and adjustment of standards over time and with international integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article reconsiders the relative growth performance of centrally planned economies in the broader context of postwar growth in Europe. It reports a new dataset of revised estimates for investment rates in eastern European countries between 1950 and 1989. Complemented with data on other growth determinants, this evidence is used to re-evaluate the socialist growth record in a conditional convergence framework with a panel of 24 European countries. After controlling for relative backwardness, investment rates, and improvements in human capital, the findings show that centrally planned economies underperformed due to their relative inefficiency only after the postwar golden age. In the 1950s and 1960s, eastern Europe was falling behind mainly due to relatively low levels of investment and weak reconstruction dynamics. Both are explained, in part, by the lack of labour-supply flexibility that, in turn, resulted from the comparatively much larger negative impact of the war on population growth in eastern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wine cooperatives were relatively scarce in Europe before the Second World War, but by the 1980s accounted for more than half of all wines made in France, Italy, and Spain, the three major producer countries. Unlike Danish dairy cooperatives, whose success before the First World War was linked to their ability to improve product quality and compete in high-value niche markets, wine cooperatives are often associated with the production of large volumes of low-quality products. This article argues that the initial slow diffusion of wine cooperatives was caused by the difficulties of improving quality due to environmental conditions in European vineyards ('terroir') and measurement problems, rather than institutional shortcomings. Cooperatives only became widespread when the state found them a useful instrument to regulate markets, especially after 1950. The problems associated with poor wine quality were never resolved, and cooperatives have become increasingly uncompetitive in the market place, especially following the major decline in per capita consumption and shift towards premium wines from the 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investment in network infrastructure is crucial for economic growth. This article studies the impact of the presence of independent regulatory agencies ( IRAs) on the investment of European regulated firms. We account for measurement error in formal independence of IRAs by exploiting cross-country heterogeneity in the quality of political institutions. Results show that regulatory independence increases firms' investment rate by around 1.2%-3.3%. The positive effect survives when we control for social capital accumulation, investor protection, and market liberalization. However, the effect of IRAs is not immune to politics, as we find that political interference in regulatory functions persists in the European Union and is detrimental to firm investment. ( JEL D78, L50, D92, H1) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When technological change affects the prices of tradeable assets, innovators can obtain speculative profits by exploiting their inside information as to the occurrence of innovations. We propose a tractable model of endogenous growth that formalizes this argument, originally due to Hirshleifer (1971). We then use the model to assess two claims advanced by Hirshleifer, namely, that speculative profits can generate excessive investment in R&D when they add to monopoly rents guaranteed by patent protection, or else even in a perfectly competitive economy. The analysis confirms the first claim, but casts doubts on the second one. ( JEL O30, O40) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We estimate the causal link from income inequality to generalized trust by reconsidering the country-level evidence on this issue. First, we exploit the panel dimension of the data, thus controlling for any country unobservable time-invariant variables, and find a negative relationship between the two variables that holds only for developed countries. Second, we focus on these advanced economies and provide instrumental variable estimates using the predicted exposure to technological change as an exogenous driver of inequality. According to our findings, the negative causal effect of inequality on trust is even larger than that coming from ordinary least squares estimation. We also provide new insights on the effects of different dimensions of inequality, exploiting measures of both static inequality-such as the Gini index and top income shares-and dynamic inequality-proxied by intergenerational income mobility. ( JEL D31, O15, Z13) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the second of two articles on long-term world growth, we present a set of stylised scenarios for world growth in the next decade. Our baseline forecast, which sees growth edging down, is compared to scenarios based on 'lost decades' in China and India, lower productivity and investment growth and a bigger drag from excess debt. The more likely of these scenarios could cut world growth by around 0.5 percentage points per year, rising to a 1.5 percentage point cut for the most extreme scenario., Our baseline forecast assumes productivity and investment grow at a similar pace in the next decade to the past ten years. But there are downside risks to productivity growth, especially in Emerging Markets (EMs). And with investment in China and in commodity exporters slowing, our investment forecast relies on a significant rebound in the major economies., Demographic factors are a significant downside risk to our forecast. The negative impact of demographic changes on growth in Japan since the 1990s was not generally foreseen. This risk exists in the US and Europe but also in emerging Asia, a particular concern given that the latter region accounted for over 50% of world growth in 2000-14., Growth in commodity-exporting economies could undershoot our current predictions. Historical evidence suggests a danger that the drop in commodity prices could extend for several more years. Even with zero real growth in commodity prices, aggregate GDP growth in the main commodity exporters might only be around 2.5% per year., Another risk area is debt. International evidence suggests debt ratios above certain thresholds slow growth. We find that countries accounting for 44% and 31% of world GDP respectively exceed these estimated public and corporate debt thresholds. But the share is lower, and has dropped, for household debt, thanks to deleveraging in the G7. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the different implications of patent breadth and R&D subsidies on economic growth and endogenous market structure in a Schumpeterian growth model. We find that when the number of firms is fixed in the short run, patent breadth and R&D subsidies serve to increase economic growth as in previous studies. However, when market structure adjusts endogenously in the long run, R&D subsidies increase economic growth but decrease the number of firms, whereas patent breadth expands the number of firms but reduces economic growth. Therefore, in accordance with empirical evidence, R&D subsidy is perhaps a more suitable policy instrument than patent breadth for the purpose of stimulating long-run economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research and development (R&D) has a large effect on both state output and total factor productivity in the long run. Our estimates for the private sector of the U.S. states from 1963 to 2007 show that the R&D elasticity averages 0.056-0.143. The implied returns to state Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from R&D spending are 82-211%. There are also positive R&D spillovers, with 70-80% of the total returns accruing to other states. We also find that states with more human capital have higher own- and other-R&D elasticities, and those in lowest tier of economic development have the least own-state R&D elasticity but the highest other-R&D elasticity. In addition, we find that the positive effect of R&D spillovers across states is larger when we consider R&D spillovers across states based on economic similarity of R&D across sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop an augmented Olley-Pakes (OP) decomposition that allows us to examine how entering and exiting firms contribute to the popular OP covariance measure of allocative efficiency. Applying the decomposition to a comprehensive micro-level data, we find that a large part of the OP covariance component can be attributed to entrants and exiting firms. We also build a model of firm dynamics that is consistent with our main empirical results. In the model economy, the standard OP covariance component tends to increase with certain type of distortions because of endogenous changes in firm entry and exit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determination of optimal population densities underlies the economic rationality when planning the provision of basic public infrastructure by local governments. Using econometric techniques based on the translog cost function, we investigate the existence of economies of scale, associated to a larger urban size in terms of population and housing, determine the effect of alternative urban patterns - compact or dispersed - on the cost of provision, and calculate optimal population densities as targets for urban planning. We illustrate the practicality of our model using Spanish municipal data, and unveil latent economies of scale and suboptimal urban densities due to excessive dispersion. Based on these findings we propose specific policy guidelines in terms of desirable urban structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Railways were one of the main engines of the Latin American trade boom before 1914. Railway construction often required financial support from local governments, which depended on their fiscal capacity. However, since the main government revenues were trade-related, this generated a two-way feedback between government revenues and railways, with a potential for multiple equilibria. The empirical tests in this article support the hypothesis of such a positive two-way relationship. The main implication of our analysis is that the build-up of state capacity was a necessary condition for railway expansion and also, to a large extent, for export expansion in Latin America during the first globalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from the dot-com boom-bust episode suggest that growth opportunities played an important role in explaining firms' financing strategy during this understudied episode. The low leverage of this sector was mainly driven by high growth firms which increased their leverage following the crash despite suffering a much larger fall in their market value. We present a parsimonious dynamic firm financing model where growth opportunities alone can generate the heterogeneous patterns in the financing and performance between high and low growth information technology firms prior to and following the market crash. The calibrated model also sheds light on the role played by monetary policy during that episode. ( JEL G32, E22, E5) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study identifies the determinants of growth for male and female business ownership in a subset of U.S. counties. The results indicate that there are important characteristic and behavioral differences between the male and female populations in each county that affect regional changes in business ownership for each gender. In particular, the education level of males and females as well as the local family structure impact the propensity for firms owned by each gender differently. A Blinder-Oaxaca type decomposition, a novel approach in the context of regional outcomes, demonstrates that although the effect of characteristic differences is larger, the behavioral differences are key to narrowing the gender disparity in business ownership. ( JEL L26, R2, R3) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We modify the standard nutritional efficiency wage model to allow for the fact that employers can directly provide calories to their workers rather than paying a higher wage to induce employees to spend more on their own caloric consumption. We derive the various theoretical outcomes that are possible depending on the assumptions about the transaction costs of directly providing calories. We argue that in most real-world situations the ability of employers to directly provide calories undermines the traditional efficiency wage theory as a cause of equilibrium unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid population ageing and economic transformation in Asia underline the policy challenges associated with ensuring income security in old age. This article examines the potential role of social pensions in securing old-age income security in Asia. It assesses the main policy trade-offs associated with adopting alternative social pension designs, especially around two critical policy points: the comparative advantages of social assistance and social pensions; and the integration of non-contributory transfers within advanced contributory pension schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Has the progress of output convergence changed within the United States? This article examines the output convergence among U.S. states for the last five decades by making several improvements over the extant literature. By applying a battery of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real output per worker data (i.e., nominal values deflated by state-level price), we find that output convergence has not been a feature of the continental United States since the 1970s. Instead, output convergence has proceeded among four subgroups within which constituent states have certain characteristics in common. Our regression analysis suggests that state-level characteristics related to technology and human capital play a crucial role in accounting for the formation and composition of convergence clubs, in agreement with the recent theoretical models of growth and development (e.g., Aghion et al. 2009; Gennaioli et al. 2013b). The level of technology, proxied by patents, turns out to be a consistently significant determinant even after controlling for endogeneity, suggesting that frictions in the diffusion of technology and human capital may have led to clustering of states with different levels of productivity. Our results therefore cast doubt on the common view that diffusion of knowledge and technology across state borders is frictionless. ( JEL O47, O51) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased turnover among legislators can make them short-sighted, affecting fiscal policy and economic growth. We exploit the exogenous variation in legislative turnover induced by term limit laws and by redistricting in the 50 U.S. states, finding that increased turnover increases capital spending by state governments, which may be designed to constrain future governments. The changes may cause long-run distortions in the economy, reducing long-term economic growth. ( JEL H72, H73, H76) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overview: darkness before the dawn? A number of indicators suggest the global economy may decelerate into the year-end., One especially worrying development is an apparent renewed softening in world trade growth. Our OE export indicator dropped in October to its lowest level since May 2013 and some other trade indicators (e.g. for container trade) have also been subdued., At a country level, growth has remained subdued in the Eurozone, prompting another slight forecast downgrade this month. Japan meanwhile slipped back into technical recession in Q3., Emerging markets remain mixed but with an overall soft tone. Among the BRIC economies there are few signs yet of a significant cyclical upturn - and in Russia the situation has deteriorated further., There has been better news from the US, where Q3 growth again came in at an annualised rate above 3% and jobs growth continues at over 200,000 a month. Consumer spending growth ebbed a little in Q3 but we expect it to pick up in the quarters ahead., Despite some gloomy near-term signals, there are a number of key positive factors for 2015 and beyond. The first is the fall in oil prices - now almost 30% down from the June peak - which will support consumer spending and lower business costs., And global policy settings are becoming more supportive. Though the US has now ended asset purchases, the Bank of Japan has announced a big increase in asset purchases. And with the ECB suggesting a possible €1 trillion increase in its balance sheet, the flow of central bank policy support in 2015/16 may not be very different from 2014., Fiscal policy may also be moving in a more positive direction. The Eurozone seems to be edging away from austerity while in Japan there is a strong possibility that the second rise in the consumption tax, planned for Q4 2015, will be delayed., These positive factors mean that we expect world GDP growth to firm from 2.6% in 2014 to 2.8% next year. This will be the best year since 2011, though growth will remain sub-par for a recovery period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decades, private R&D spending in the United States and other developed countries has been growing faster than gross domestic product. At the same time, the growth rates of per-capita and aggregate output have been rather stable, possibly declining slightly. This article proposes a growth model that can account for the observed phenomenon by explicitly describing competition among technological leaders and followers in individual markets in a way that is consistent with existing studies on firms' motivation to invest in R&D. The model shows the possibility that the unsustainable trend of rising R&D intensity persists for a very long time. ( JEL O3, O4, L1) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]