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The year 2020 was the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the turning point for the industries poorly affected by the unexpected conditions. This paper focused on the impact of a range of factors on China's exports of metal manufacture in 2020, in particular the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on it. Using cross-sectional data, the paper collected relevant data for 151 countries in 2020. We applied trade gravity model by considering important parameters impacting on China's exports of metal manufacture such as GDP, distance, population, the total number of cases of COVID-19, employment rate, economic degrees of freedom, the political environment and the free trade agreement between China and other countries. Then, by collecting the data set for 2021, this paper compares the models for 2020 and 2021 with the aim of making a comparison of the impact of the pandemic on China's exports of metal manufactures. We also do some analysis about the trend of the effect of COVID-19 in the future. The paper continues with calculation of China's export potential for metal manufacture for its 151 partner countries including 54 of them are at the Trade Potential Untapped level, 38 at the Trade Potential Growing level and 59 at the Trade Potential Mature level based on gravity model. This paper also offers different detailed trade policies for the distinct levels of trade potential in the light of the impact of the COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The consensus on industry policy, state intervention and free trade that have been so central to the neoliberal international order of the past three decades has been fundamentally transformed over the past few years. The Biden administration has coined the term 'New Washington Consensus' to describe these transformations in the global political and economic order. The nub of our argument is that rather than being the start of 'deglobalisation', or a turn away from neoliberalism, it represents the emergence of a form of militarised neoliberalism that repurposes and reorganises security institutions and alliances to enable or facilitate global economic accumulation by states such as the United States and China, such that it leads to new forms of regulatory geographies. We contest the idea that this means a shift back towards more statist forms of development. State activism is an important dimension of the new conjuncture, but we see this as the emergence of a different and more militarised neoliberalism. It is not about disconnecting but reconnecting the global economy in a way that favours certain forms of social forces and interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased market access through trade liberalization can affect the markups, prices, and marginal costs of exporters. Understanding these dynamics is critical for firms and policymakers, particularly as they formulate export strategies. We examine the impact of China lowering tariffs on Pakistani products under the Pakistan–China Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which gave Pakistani exporters greater market access. Using disaggregated output and price data for textile manufacturers in Punjab, Pakistan, we estimate product-level markups and marginal costs using the methodology of De Loecker, Goldberg, Khandelwal, and Pavcnik (2016) ["Prices, Markups, and Trade Reform." Economterica 84 (2): 445–510]. We then extend this to the firm level by using the methodology of De Loecker and Warzynsksi (2012) ["Markups and Firm-Level Export Status." American Economic Review, 2437–2471]. We find that Pakistani firms exporting to China followed a dynamic pricing strategy by reducing prices to compete with global competitors in the Chinese market. We also find evidence of a decrease in marginal costs as a result of reductions in X-inefficiencies. But because Pakistan's exports to China are relatively homogeneous, the extent of quality differentiation and markup margins was limited. Finally, we find evidence of pro-competitive effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact on polluting emissions as a result of manufacturing industries in China offering services as well as products. We merge detailed firm-level statistics covering 2000 to 2011, and use two-way linear fixed effects regression to control for firm and year heterogeneities and a host of control variables. The empirical results show that manufacturing servitization significantly reduces the emission intensity of firms. This effect is achieved by improving the total factor productivity of firms, optimizing the efficiency of energy use, and increasing the share of the highly-skilled labour force. Moreover, the emission reduction effect of manufacturing servitization is more profound in the eastern and central regions, pollution-intensive industries, non-state-owned firms, and processing trade firms. In addition, our extended analysis shows that the emission reduction effects of manufacturing servitization can be strengthened through trade liberalization and cohort study. The major policy implication is that governments should undertake industrial policies that reinforce the positive effects of manufacturing servitization in order to achieve win-win outcomes in manufacturing upgrading and environmental protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Starting from the trade policy substitution hypothesis, this paper uses detailed product-level data from 1997 to 2015 to supplement empirical evidence in China. We find that to the extent permitted by the WTO, there is a substitution relationship between temporary trade barriers and tariff reductions in China. Among the three types of temporary trade barriers, antidumping is the most frequent tool and presents a remarkably negative relationship with tariff reductions. After a set of robustness tests, the relationship still holds. Therefore, this paper verifies the trade policy substitution hypothesis and provides theoretical support for trade policy practice in the context of trade liberalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper integrates trade policy and foreign direct investment into a unified analytical framework, and investigates the effects of input trade liberalization on the entry of foreign firms. To identify the causal effects, we utilize China's accession to the WTO in 2001 as a quasi-natural experiment, and perform difference-in-difference estimation. The results show that input trade liberalization significantly increases foreign entry. We also find that input trade liberalization not only promotes the entry of new foreign firms, but also restrains the exit of existing foreign firms, thereby contributing to the net growth of the number of foreign firms. The mechanism tests show that increasing variety as well as quality of intermediate input and reduction in marginal cost are the potential channels through which input trade liberalization promotes foreign entry. This paper further demonstrates that institutional environment strengths the positive effect of input trade liberalization on foreign entry, and the promotive effect of input trade liberalization on foreign entry increases with industry import intensity, additionally, input trade liberalization is also conducive to improving the quality of foreign investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the welfare effect of trade liberalization in the service industry by focusing on the Chinese movie industry. China has been maintaining an import quota of foreign movies since 1990s. Using a unique Chinese movie dataset, we first estimate a nested logit demand model. And based on the estimated demand parameters, we perform counterfactual tests by removing the movie import quota. Specifically, we quantify the loss to the domestic film makers due to greater competition with foreign competitors, and the gains to consumers from consuming more high quality movies. We find that after trade liberalization, the market share of domestic film makers falls by 21–22% on average during the sample period, whereas the gain in the consumer welfare is comparatively smaller with an increase of around 5–9%. We also find that if the domestic film makers react actively by either strategically changing the release dates or by improving the quality of the home-made movies, then the magnitude of decline in the producer welfare will reduce by a large extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of literature has emerged on the links between free trade agreement (FTA) and agricultural export margins. As a key component of intensive margins, export survival and duration play essential roles in long-term and sustainable export growth. We investigated the impact of FTAs on agricultural export duration from the perspective of firm-destination pair. Based on highly disaggregated firm-level panel data of Chinese agricultural exporters covering the period of 2000–2016, we applied the proper survival method to empirically analyze the effect of FTA on export duration and survival. The results identify dynamic export stylized facts among firm-destination country pairs: although most of the agricultural firm-destination export relations demonstrated longer duration than those of other industries in China, they were still short-lived. Most importantly, we confirmed that FTA produced two opposite effects: Compared to non-FTA partners, the FTA membership role helps extend the length of export duration for agricultural export relation in general. However, for newly created relations, the implementation of FTA increased the hazard rate of export failure and shortened the length of duration. Our results cast a new light on firm-level export survival issue and FTA policy, and provide implications for both agricultural exporters and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's government has pledged to attain net-zero emissions by 2050 and aims to create the world's most resilient and forward-looking border by 2025. It has outlined a high-level vision for digital trade and a freeport plan and guarantees to implement new free trade agreements, develop infrastructure, and equalise the economy. Therefore, this study explores the dynamic impact of digital trade and financial development on ecological sustainability from 2000-Q1 to 2020-Q4. We apply the Bootstrap ARDL model for empirical analysis and found that digital trade in goods and services, financial development, and green innovation are conducive to long-term environmental sustainability. Similar results are also observed in the short run; however, the influence of short-run parameters is relatively lower. Moreover, the error correction term endorses convergence towards stable equilibrium with a 32.7% quarterly adjustment rate. Granger causality test report uni-direction casualty in all variables, except green innovation and carbon emissions. These findings recommend an inclusive policy for promoting digital trade, financial integration, and green innovation in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study builds an open economy theoretical model with financial frictions to analyse the spillover impact of the U.S. monetary policy shock on China's economy through capital flow channel. Bayesian technique is employed to estimate the TVP-VAR model and obtain three main results. First, the increase in the U.S. nominal interest rate causes the decline in China's capital inflow, which has a negative spillover impact on China's economy and leads to the decline in China's real output. Second, this negative spillover impact on China's economy has no structural time-varying characteristics. Third, the pass-through effect from international capital flow to China's real output is greater than that of international capital flow itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expansion of FTA rules from the border to the "depth" within the border can promote the reduction of trade barriers between member countries. Yet, this can also increase the cost of compliance. Hence, this research examines the impact of FTA deepening on China's import and export trade based on the trade data between China and 21FTA partner countries over the period of 2005–2018. This paper introduces the FTA deepening index, constructs a structural gravity model, and empirically applies PPML estimation and instrumental variable methods. The results show that FTA deepening promotes the growth of China's international trade, and the effect on promoting imports is greater than that of export promotion. Additionally, a heterogeneity test between countries and products is carried out. Based on this, our results reveal that FTA deepening has a more significant promoting effect on China's trade imports from developed countries and has a more significant restraining effect on China's exports to developed countries. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the depth of FTA has a less positive impact on China's agricultural trade than on industrial products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use the China shock in Brazil as a quasi-natural experiment to revisit the impact of trade on firm productivity, innovation, and employment. The results corroborate some of the key findings of trade liberalization literature of the 1990s, pointing to a positive although modest effect of trade on productivity. They also point to relatively modest job losses. They raise questions, though, about the effects on innovation, contradicting the positive estimates of the 1990s. This mismatch between productivity and innovation questions the ability of trade policy to deliver sustainable productivity growth on its own. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an evaluation of the main characteristics of Chinese domestic cultural policy and international cultural trade strategy. The objective is to assess whether China has developed a type of pattern addressing the culture and trade issue, and to advance meaningful lessons to reconcile cultural diversity and trade liberalization in the context of international law. This paper starts with a brief introduction of Chinese cultural industries and Chinese cultural laws and policies. The analysis then dives into Chinese international agreements, including WTO agreements, the UNESCO Convention 2005, Chinese FTAs, and the BRI. Chinese international cultural practices can be grouped into cultural trade liberalization commitments and cultural cooperation mechanisms. This paper argues that China takes a cautious attitude towards liberalizing cultural trade while holding a relatively open position towards promoting cultural cooperation. The cultural cooperation approach deserves more attention as an alternative route for reconciling cultural diversity and free trade in international law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key challenge facing most developing economies today is how to simultaneously maintain monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial integration, subject to the constraints imposed by the impossible trinity. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by examining and comparing alternative macroeconomic policy choices for a developing economy with growth shocks. To that end, we introduce a three-sector "almost small" open economy macroeconomic model, and calibrate this model to proxy the China in 2005 when it made the transition from being an economy that was bounded by the impossible trinity. We design two alternative macroeconomic policy regimes and apply the calibrated model to analyze both the short-run and the long-run responses to several domestic and external growth shocks, which appeared important for a developing economy like China during its economic reform period in the 2000s. The model simulation shows that most growth shocks cause an expansion in the real GDP level. Moreover, greater flexibility in the exchange rate allows the central bank to conduct independent monetary policy, the benefit from which increases as financial capital becomes more internationally mobile. Our findings draw policy implication for those developing countries considering alternative macroeconomic policy regimes to achieve sustainable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a component of illicit globalization, smuggling has loomed large in international political economy in recent years. The question of sovereignty is at the forefront of the discussion because smugglers make efforts to evade state regulations and thus jeopardize sovereign power. This paper examines the operation of commodity smuggling between China and Myanmar and discusses major factors that facilitate this business. Another objective is to explore antismuggling initiatives launched by the Chinese state to exercise its sovereignty over cross-border commodity flows. The study case is the Ruili (China)-Muse (Myanmar) border crossing, where smuggling has been an essential component of cross-border networks for decades. Increased smuggling does not infer the Chinese state as weak or failing, but reveals the illicit side of globalization that operates in parallel with trade liberalization and economic integration. Nevertheless, border control is not in vain, but draws on antismuggling campaigns to push informal economies to become formalized, and safeguards national sovereignty at the border. This article presents new material on the complexity of trade governance in one of Asia's most isolated borderlands, and contributes to theoretical debates on the articulation of effective sovereignty in relation to illicit globalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Established in 1989 as an economic forum, APEC has become an important regional organization contributing to the promotion of not only economic but also political and security cooperation among countries and territories in the region. Given the great role of APEC, China has actively participated in the forum and today has become a major player with so-called Chinese approaches. The paper points out China's purposes and intentions with Chinese way, especially under the attack of Covid-19 that has led to strategic adjustments in APEC. Politically, with APEC as an arena, China aims to restore and expand its sphere of influence in the region, hedge against the US and challenge to change the global governance system. Economically, through APEC's mechanism, China wants to promote trade liberalization and hence facilitate its domestic economic reforms to soon become the number one power in the world. Moreover, the paper also outlines opportunities and challenges that China would face in APEC. It will also concern China's advantages and barricades on its political regime as a powerful central authoritarian state, China's role and position in the dynamic economic region, its trade and territorial disputes with neighboring countries in APEC, and the questions of APEC's effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the varying effects of trade liberalization on environmental pollution from the perspective of enterprise viability. We find that trade liberalization significantly reduces pollution emissions, and the environmental effect on low viability and high viability enterprises varies. Our results also indicate that the emissions trading policy enhances the abating effect of trade liberalization on environmental pollution in both high viability and low viability enterprises, whereas the voluntary environmental policy reduces this effect. This study not only extends the applicability of new structural economics but also presents empirical evidence for further market opening and actions to improve the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a small open economy DSGE-based New Keynesian model incorporating the demand for oil, to focus on whether the PBoC targets core inflation or headline inflation including oil price inflation, and investigating the macroeconomic effect of oil price shocks. Based on both counterfactual simulations and welfare evaluations, our results indicate that targeting both core inflation and non-core inflation are inferior to the one purely pegged to core inflation, suggesting the central bank should target core inflation instead of headline inflation. Our paper contributes to a growing literature on monetary policy in China and other emerging market economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Korea deployed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) antimissile system in response to North Korea's nuclear test, leading to the Chinese government's opposition to THAAD, citing national security concerns. Chinese consumers held a large-scale "boycott for Korean products" campaign in 2014. In the same year, the China–South Korea free trade agreement (FTA) was signed. This study compares the double-difference (DID) and triple-difference (DDD) models using the impact of the THAAD political conflict on South Korean exports. In the DID model, THAAD reduced South Korean exports, while in the DDD model, the FTA effectively alleviated the impact of THAAD. The net difference of the FTA's impact on the commodities boycotted in response to the THAAD conflict exists because some boycotted commodities were promoted by the FTA while others were not. The effect of the THAAD event shock was significant only in the first two years, with minimal subsequent changes in growth. THAAD and FTA's dynamic effects provide evidence of how political conflict can eventually influence popular opinion and how the trade policy plays a significant role in the national conflict resolution. Finally, the study provides additional evidence on the effect of non-tariff barriers triggered by THAAD on the service industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the epidemic and a series of strict prevention and control measures taken to prevent the spread of the epidemic will have a significant impact on the entire chain and various fields of agricultural production and operation. Based on the realistic basis of China's current international cooperation in agricultural ecological environmental protection, this paper proposes an international coordination mechanism for agricultural product trade legal systems. There is a certain degree of conflict between ecological environment protection and trade facilitation and liberalisation, but they are not completely uncoordinated. Therefore, the establishment of a set of coordination mechanisms that can restrain and encourage countries to carry out international cooperation plays a key role in resolving the conflict between the two. In addition, this paper analyzes the legal regulation of agricultural trade in the post-epidemic era through intelligent model analysis and proposes corresponding countermeasures. Through analysis and research, it also provides a corresponding reference for legal regulations of agricultural trade in the post-epidemic era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses the Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) of an open economy to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on an open economy and industry sub-sectors, using the 2017 China Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) table data. The results have shown that, overall, the COVID-19 pandemic has harmed the economy extensively. The residential sector has been the most severely affected sector, particularly the hotels and catering services industries. Resident consumption demand is the most deeply affected part of all industries in all scenarios. Stabilizing employment and expanding demand is therefore an important mission for the government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the effects of import competition on the manufacturing sector in Chile following the implementation of the country's two largest Free Trade Agreements (FTA) (with the USA and China). Exploiting cross-industry variation in import exposure, we analyse the effects on manufacturing sales, employment and labour productivity at the finest level of industrial classification (4 digit ISIC level). We detect an overall negative effect of increased Chinese import penetration, owing to substitution effects from low and medium tech imports and a less pronounced effect from USA imports. By introducing interaction effects, we find that the levels of foreign ownership and the export intensity of the domestic industries reverse the negative effect due to the opportunities offered via participation in global value chains. An IV strategy is applied to address standard endogeneity concerns and confirm the robustness of our estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international community is facing the dilemma of an insufficient supply of public goods due to the conjunction of various forces and factors including the profound impact of the economic crisis, increased trade protectionism, changes in the global governance system and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a non-rivalrous and non-excludable public good provided to the international community by China as a responsible major country in the new era of historical development. International law has an important role in promoting and guaranteeing the supply of international public goods (IPGs). Since the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, the international governance environment has changed dramatically, with the rule of law being the basic premise and important guarantee of the long-term and smooth implementation of the BRI. In pursuing the BRI, buttressed as it is by the rule of law, China should pay attention to diversified governance based on a combination of international soft and hard law and make judicious use of existing bilateral, regional and multilateral international legal mechanisms. In addition, China must also pay close attention to the latest developments in international economic and trade rules and must innovate and improve its ability to supply rules for investment, trade liberalization, etc. Buttressed by international law, the BRI should focus not only on recent concrete initiatives in trade and investment liberalization, but also on the long-term planning and sustainable development of institutional supply, so as to realize the vision and goals of the BRI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has consolidated its position in the world as the second largest economy. Four decades ago, China was one of the poorest economies prior to economic reforms. Yet, China's reforms are unique as they were implemented gradually and experimental in nature, which contrasted the reforms in other transitioning economies. Understanding these directions can provide a deeper understanding for the future of China's growth. This paper provides a critical review of the reforms, highlighting the importance of the agricultural and non-state sector during initial reforms. Furthermore, the review discusses the substandard performance of the state sector despite various reforms, prior to the implementation of widespread reforms to open its economy. Finally, China's sources of economic growth are discussed, and future policy implications are offered to direct China into an economically sustainable growth path. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While literature on US voter trade policy preferences has an established diversity of theories and methods, academic and popular approaches to US organizational trade policy advocacy are underdeveloped. The dominant methodologies in economics conceptualize stakeholder group policy preferences as a continuum from free trade to protectionism. In contrast, this study builds on literature that assumes that organizations have both economic and ideological motivations. I examine China's effects on US stakeholder group advocacy and intergroup relations (e.g. multinational business associations, domestic manufacturing groups, and labor unions). I use interviews with organizational leaders and content analysis of documents from US stakeholders in manufacturing and services sectors. I argue that US-China issues reshaped organizational advocacy by expanding and evolving ideological interests. As groups increasingly advocate on the basis of their ideological interests, their discrete economic interests are a shrinking share of the content of trade politics, including traditional protectionism. Rather than simply advocating their microeconomic interests, US stakeholder groups organize around their competing ideologies for the future of US-China integration—free trade, strategic trade, and fair trade. China issues led new organizational agreements and disagreements along those ideological lines, which preceded policy outcomes reflective of the convergences and divergences of their goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies suggest that globalization is a process initiated by corporations and states in advanced countries that pressures or encourages developing countries to open themselves to the globalized economy. This paper illustrates, with the case of China, that developing countries have significant power to initiate and shape trade liberalization. Using sources from both the United States and China, it delineates how the Chinese state, driven by its aspiration to move China to an export-oriented economic model, mobilized and coordinated dominant US corporations to lobby for US–China trade liberalization in the critical period of 1993–1994. China's "lobbying by proxy" efforts led to the Clinton administration's rejection of its 1993 policy that constrained free trade with China based on human rights considerations in 1994. This research shows that the origins and evolution of trade globalization involved many contingent actions of actors in the core and periphery. We should not underestimate the agency of actors from the periphery, even though they are not always in the driver's seat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New Zealand (NZ) was the first developed country to sign a free trade agreement with China. Afterwards, the NZ government crafted a narrative to encourage businesses to pursue opportunities there and in emerging Asia more generally to enact the enabling institutional change. Our study shows neoliberal free-trade rhetoric matched and thus likely confirmed businesses' opportunity perceptions but often mismatched their capabilities and thus interests. Businesses sampled predictably lacked scale, scope and other resources to realise the opportunities they perceived. We argue government communications tilted businesses towards the simplifying presumption that substantial opportunities lay within fairly easy grasp. As a result, over-enactment in entering the Chinese market followed. We identify the construct of 'peripheral evidence' as propping up presumptive tilt here and generally – irrelevant but widely observable facts or well-accepted predictions and opinion inappropriately shifted to centre-stage. Such centring discourages critical discourse and displaces properly central considerations – here the fundamental obstacles of size, scale and resources. Our study contributes to constructivist institutionalism by showing the mechanisms and tangible risks of uncritical pro-enactment discourse after formal trade liberalisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A flurry of recent regional economic agreements in the Pacific are best characterized as 'semi-inclusive,' as each tends to include some large economies in the region but omit some others. With a perspective from global value chains (GVCs), we assess two particular dimensions of these agreements: (a) reduction in trade barriers, and (b) promotion of cross-border direct investment. We argue that China can be expected to gain from both the RCEP and China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), and it will likely gain even further from undertaking the necessary reforms to become a member of the CPTPP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article proves in a New Keynesian model that interest rate fixation can explain ChinaŠs excessive business cycle fluctuations. The fixed nominal interest rate changes the propagation of external shocks, magnifies volatility of endogenous variables, and leads to economic instability. We then extend the model to a small open economy featuring capital controls, sterilized interventions and a managed exchange rate to capture the main characteristics of the Chinese economy. We prove that the magnifying effect of interest rate fixation holds in such an environment, but this effect diminishes with a more strictly managed exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.S.–China trade imbalance is commonly attributed to a Chinese policy of currency manipulation. However, empirical studies failed to reach consensus on the RMB misalignment. We argue that this is not a consequence of poor measurement but of theory. At the most abstract level the conventional principle of comparative cost advantage suggests real exchange rates will adjust so as to balance trade. Therefore, the persistence of trade imbalances tends to be interpreted as arising from currency manipulation facilitated by foreign exchange interventions. By way of contrast, the absolute cost theory explains trade imbalances as the outcome of free trade among nations that have unequal real costs. We argue that a disparity in real costs is the root cause of the U.S.–China trade imbalance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using export data with 6-digit HS categories for 1995-2018, we decompose China's export growth into three margins: extensive (EM), price (PM), and quantity (QM). Our estimations suggest that over the 23-year period, QM is a main driving force of China's export boom, accounting for 62% of total contributions, while PM and EM also make significant contributes (26% and 12%, respectively). Dynamic analyses based on four sub-periods suggest informative patterns of export upgrading due to external and internal shocks. In 1995-2001, PM and EM are overwhelming drivers, and QM is even negative. The trade liberalization as China's entering World Trade Organization in 2001 seems to trigger a dominant role of QM in China's explosive export growth in 2001-2013, with slight negative PM in the same two sub-periods. The contribution of EM is negligible in 2001-2008, and negative in 2008-2013 due to falling world demand as a result of the global financial crisis. In more recent years (2013-2018), China's export growth depends more on PM (39% of contributions) and EM (33%), less on QM (28%), suggesting a significant export upgrading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Social Sciences in China is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Over the past two years, China and the US are going on a trade war imposing tariffs on one another's goods and this is hurting each other's businesses. The focus of the present paper is to analyse the costs and benefits of tariff policy changes by the two economies. A partial equilibrium model approach based on highly disaggregated data shows that when China and the US are moving rapidly towards tariff imposition, it is largely deleterious from both the economy's perspective in terms of trade and welfare. If we compare both the economies, the losses would be considerably higher for the US than China. However, trade liberalization is clearly associated with improved trade flows in the US and additional welfare gains in China. China would gain particularly in consumer goods, industrial goods and agricultural goods whereas the US would be better off opening its consumer goods and industrial goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study empirically analyses the free trade agreements of Pakistan implicitly and China-Pakistan agreement explicitly by utilizing data of major trade partners of Pakistan from 1996 to 2018. For modeling the impact of trade agreements, gravity equation augmented with different variables, to accommodate zones of trade liberalization of Pakistan. To estimate the equation, feasible generalized least square used in a setting of panel data by controlling for country pair-specific and time-specific effects. Estimates of an extended gravity-based specification reflect that trade liberalization with Malaysia, and Sri Lanka is not as effective as with China and the trade agreement with China is only welfare-led. However, the imports from China are more responsive to free trade agreements as compare to export to China. The findings suggest the next round of negotiations for another phase of the agreement with consideration of the provision of market access to Pakistani exporters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates China's macroeconomic fluctuations by using the agent-based New Keynesian (ABNK) model. The model features bounded rationality, heterogeneous expectations, and adaptive learning. The model is estimated by the Bayesian method combined with the differential evolution algorithm and is analyzed using the impulse response, forecast performance, and variance decomposition approach. The estimation results show that in the real economy, in addition to rational agents, there are also boundedly rational agents with adaptive learning expectations. The impulse responses of macroeconomic variables to shocks are more sensitive and last longer than those from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The ABNK model exhibits better out-of-sample forecast performance than both the vector auto-regression (VAR) and DSGE models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's economic development has entered a period of transformation. Does trade liberalization reshape transitional China? In this study, from the perspectives of heterogeneous exporters and firm-level pollution emissions, we employ the data of 372,861 samples from China's manufacturing to empirically investigate the impacts of trade liberalization on China's economic transformation. Our results indicate that both import and export liberalization significantly change the behaviors of Chinese exporters, and aggravates pollution emissions. The underlying mechanisms include scale, factor composition and technique effects by trade liberalization. In addition, trade liberalization has heterogeneous impacts on different types of firms, which refers to ownership reforms, manufacturing sector upgrades and regional-coordinated development that are the part of China's economic transformation. Altogether, our findings provide important evidences on the impacts of trade liberalization on China's economic transformation and firm-level pollution emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on China economically engage each other with different objectives and expectations, and they seek to advance their interests and pursue their goals by following very different strategies. It mentions China would pursue the path of economic liberalization and reduce or eliminate all barriers to the free flow of goods, capital, information, and people between their two countries. It also mentions bilateral flows of trade and investment and effectively disengage from one another economically and greater openness by applying tariffs on an increasing array of imports from China.

Copyright of Canadian Foreign Policy Journal (CFPJ) is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper examines China's long-term growth prospects and the potential drivers of future growth, based on cross-country productivity convergence and China's featured demographic evolution. In a nonlinear open economy catch-up growth model, per capital GDP growth of the followers depend on that of the leading economy and time varying convergence of the relative per capita GDP. Comparable open economies of China are identified in terms of relative per capita GDP and the historical data of which are used to project China's trajectory of productivity convergence and then the growth of per capita GDP. Projection shows China's future GDP growth will gradually descend from 6.6–6.7% (2016–2020) to 2.6–2.7% (2046–2050) in low variant. Predictions under medium and high variants are provided as well. The importance of further opening-up domestic markets, elimination of birth control policies and accumulation of human capital in the process of promoting urbanization are highlighted and have significant implications for the economic restructuring and transformation of China. Abbreviations: ICRG: International Country Risk Guide; IMF: International Monetary Fund [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China was the world's largest importer of e-waste in the 2000s, with e-waste entering the country via different pathways. It was treated informally by using primitive techniques. Since the 2010s, the quantities of illegal importation have been gradually decreasing as China started to amend and enforce the importation ban policy. The amount of imported e-waste is predicted to disappear in the coming decades if China keeps to her stringent enforcements. Being a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China, Hong Kong (HK) pursues an independent judiciary, rule of law and retains a free trading policy. As such, a substantial amount of e-waste has entered HK, and is stored in the northern part of the New Territories (NT). Some of the e-waste has been dismantled and recycled, jeopardizing the local environmental and the human health of this increasingly affluent city. This article reviews the effects of the new movement of global e-waste, to find out whether the same mistakes made in China are being repeated in HK, in particular, the environmental and health impacts of recycling e-waste. In addition, the management strategies to deal with the problems in this densely populated city are also summarized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With an open economy and technology spillovers framework, this article develops a theoretical model that predicts resource misallocations and decomposes misallocations caused by markets forces and government interventions. Using panel data on 35 Chinese industrial sectors from 1993 to 2011, we conclude that trading with technology-leading countries worsens resource misallocations between industries and sectors, China's inter-industrial factor allocations go against Kuznets' theory that predicts production factors shift from less-efficient to more-efficient sectors, and the relative resource misallocation indices of the state-owned sector are higher than those of private sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world's two largest developing economies, China and India are considering positive negotiations on the Free Trade Agreement, which would pave the way for more trade and a new breakthrough in ties. In this context, the present paper using trade indicators explore, that India and China are in between the ideal trading partners and perfect competitors and the trade relationship between the two economies is more intense than the world average for the partner. A partial equilibrium approach based on highly disaggregated trade data shows that in a scenario where China and India completely open up its markets, there could be huge potential to create an impact on trade and welfare in their specific areas where they enjoy a comparative advantage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Chinese open real economy, and aims to give a theoretical account of the empirical stylized facts of economic volatility. Specifically, we investigate two questions: first, what are the stylized facts of the Chinese open economy fluctuation? Is there anything particular that makes it different from other major economies? Second, could theoretical models reasonably explain and fit those facts well? To answer the first question, we use four different filters to extract volatility so as to contribute a robust summary of the stylized facts. As for the second question, we find that asymmetric preference, incomplete financial markets, and terms of trade shocks significantly improve the model's prediction. Negative international co-movement of investment is the special feature of the Chinese economy, and our model caters for that well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay challenges the 'methodological territorialism' and 'methodological nationalism' prevalent in recent studies of imperial biographies, examining the role of the German Karl Friedrich August Gützlaff (1801–1851) in establishing a transnational form of free-trade imperialism in China. A native of Prussia and a missionary by training, Gützlaff was first posted in the Netherlands East Indies before associating himself with British interests on the China coast. However, his loyalty was not limited to one imperialist power. In the 1840s, Gützlaff promoted German trade with China, and at certain points of time he also supported American as well as Scandinavian interests. In addition to making a name for himself as a cultural broker and promoter of free trade and diplomatic representation, he also became involved with various forms of imperialism, from the more fluid commercial variant to the more formalised power structures of territorial rule. The case of Gützlaff therefore lends itself to a reflection about the permeable and shifting boundaries of empires. Moreover, it calls for a reassessment of German imperialism in the period before 1871, showing how Germany's involvement with 'Western' global expansion was palpable and not merely confined to the realm of colonial fantasy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to contribute to an understanding about the major changes in China–ASEAN economic relations after establishment of the China–ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) in 2010. First, China's merchandize trade balance with ASEAN has shifted from deficit to surplus since 2012. This reflects China's improving comparative advantage in manufacturing production vis-à-vis ASEAN as a whole. Second, with China's wage hike, ASEAN investors can no longer take advantage of China's cheap labor force. Concurrently, China's investment in ASEAN has been increasing and become more diversified, ranging from energy to manufacturing and services. Singapore has remained the most important investment destination for Chinese investors and the largest foreign investor in China among ASEAN countries. Third, China has comparative advantages in providing construction, telecommunications, computer and information services and other business services to ASEAN. On the other hand, ASEAN, led by Singapore, has opportunities in the financial services and tourism markets in China. Finally, the development of economic regionalism, notably the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership, will remain critical for the CAFTA's relevance in regional economic integration, as well as China–ASEAN relations in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this article is to evaluate the role of the determinants of China's free trade agreements (FTAs) partner choices. Although we note China's heterogeneous trade behavior, we assume that there are common traits as key drivers in China's trade policy. Empirical results based on a logit model show that traditional variables such as distance, a dummy for Asia, and the number of regional trade agreements held by the partner country are statistically significant. Besides, and most importantly, we find that the larger the share of the partner country in China's commodity imports the higher the probability to hold an FTA with China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 data from 49 countries to determine changes wrought by China's Belt and Road initiative; we also used panel data regarding the Maritime Silk and Inland Silk Roads to test initiative effects on Chinese exports. Post-initiative infrastructure expansion and logistics performance improvements led to positive effects on China's exports. Additionally, legal-system similarities and inland borders with trade partners had a more positive effect on Chinese exports in the Inland Silk Road, while population and free trade agreements were found to have a more positive effect on the Maritime Silk Road. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the interest rate transmission in China. We analyze the extent to which the benchmark and wholesale interest rates are transmitted to the retail interest rates and focus particularly on the change in the interest rate pass-through after the interest rate liberalization. Using data of 16 listed banks from 2007Q1 to 2017Q3, we find that the pass-through is not yet complete. Even though interest rates have been liberalized on the policy level, the sensitivity of the retail interest rates to the wholesale rates has not increased enough as expected and may be explained by the market power of Chinese commercial banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the nexus between insurance and economic growth in China with a dynamic interactive mechanism to study different time periods. Using quarterly data from 1999 to 2015, the rolling-window causality test provides evidence of bidirectional causality between insurance activity and economic growth. However, the “supply-leading” pattern tends to dominate the “demand-following” pattern, which implies that in China insurance acts as a stimulus of economic growth during most of the period. Property insurance is more effective than life insurance in stimulating economic growth. Some temporary negative impacts from the development of the insurance sector show that China is in the midst of a transition from a closed economy to a more open economy and policy interventions by the government to liberalize the insurance sector. These findings offer several useful insights for policy makers in transition economies and developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the dynamics and underlying determinants of integration based on cross-listed Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong H-shares from January 1996 to December 2016. We focus mainly on three liberalization reforms: the qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) policy, the qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) policy, and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program. Our results show that the QDII policy has significantly increased the integration between the Mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets, although the extent to which any stock has been affected is partly dependent upon certain firm-specific characteristics, including liquidity, market value, and volatility. However, we do not document the similar effect of the QFII policy and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program on the integration dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]