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The future of land use and cover change in Brazil, particularly due to deforestation and forest restoration processes, is critical for the future of global climate and biodiversity, given the richness of its five biomes. These changes in Brazil depend on the interlink between global factors due to its role as one of the main exporters of commodities globally and the national to local institutional, socioeconomic, and biophysical contexts. Aiming to develop scenarios that consider the balance between global (e.g., GDP growth, population growth, per capita consumption of agricultural products, international trade policies, and climatic conditions) and local factors (e.g., land use, agrarian structure, agricultural suitability, protected areas, distance to roads, and other infrastructure projects), a new set of land-use change scenarios for Brazil were developed that aligned with the global structure Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) developed by the global change research community. The narratives of the new scenarios align with SSP1/RCP 1.9 (Sustainable development scenario), SSP2/RCP 4.5 (Middle of the road scenario), and SSP3/RCP 7.0 (Strong inequality scenario). The scenarios were developed by combining the LuccME spatially explicit land change allocation modeling framework and the INLAND surface model to incorporate the climatic variables in water deficit. Based on detailed biophysical, socioeconomic, and institutional factors for each biome in Brazil, we have created spatially explicit scenarios until 2050, considering the following classes: forest vegetation, grassland vegetation, planted pasture, agriculture, a mosaic of small land uses, and forestry. The results aim to detail global models regionally. They could be used regionally to support decision-making and enrich the global analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The largest and most dynamic agricultural frontier in Brazil is known as MATOPIBA, an area that covers part of the Cerrado biome. Within this region, Western Bahia stands out as a large producer of soy and cotton. There are no studies that quantify carbon stocks for different land uses and land cover types in Western Bahia, which hinders comprehension of the role of agricultural expansion in carbon dynamics and the development of sustainable agriculture policies. Here, we evaluate how the land use changes in this region have affected the carbon balance in the aboveground biomass (AGB), belowground biomass (BGB), and soil reservoirs. We collected soil samples for areas with different land uses and land cover types to estimate soil carbon stocks (SCS) and combined remote sensing results and modeling techniques to develop a historical reconstruction of spatial patterns of SCS, AGB, and BGB during the period 1990–2018. The replacement of areas from the forest formations class with pasture and rainfed agriculture reduced the 100 cm depth SCS (SCS100) by 37.3% (p = 0.031) and 30.3% (p = 0.053), respectively. By contrast, the conversion of pasture and rainfed agriculture to irrigated agriculture increased SCS100 by 34% (p = 0.034) and 26.5% (p = 0.022), respectively. Spatial changes in historical carbon stocks are strongly associated with land use changes that occurred between 1990 and 2018. We estimated a non-significant loss of 61.9 Tg-C (p = 0.726) from the total carbon stocks (calculated as the sum of AGB, BGB, and SCS) of which 80% of the losses came from soil stocks, 11% from BGB, and 8% from AGB. These findings reveal the need to monitor carbon stocks in sandy soils to reduce the uncertainties of estimates and support the development of effective sustainable agriculture policies. The best alternatives for reducing carbon losses in the Cerrado are to maintain natural forest cover and to recover soils through sustainable soil management, especially in pasturelands where soil carbon stocks are lowest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic rainforest of Brazil is one of the global terrestrial hotspots of biodiversity. Despite having undergone large scale deforestation, forest cover has shown signs of increases in the last decades. Here, to understand the degradation and regeneration history of Atlantic rainforest remnants near São Paulo, we combine a unique dataset of very high resolution images from Worldview-2 and Worldview-3 (0.5 and 0.3m spatial resolution, respectively), georeferenced aerial photographs from 1962 and use a deep learning method called U-net to map (i) the forest cover and changes and (ii) two pioneer tree species, Cecropia hololeuca and Tibouchina pulchra. For Tibouchina pulchra, all the individuals were mapped in February, when the trees undergo mass-flowering with purple and pink blossoms. Additionally, elevation data at 30m spatial resolution from NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and annual mean climate variables (Terraclimate datasets at ∼ 4km of spatial resolution) were used to analyse the forest and species distributions. We found that natural forests are currently more frequently found on south-facing slopes, likely because of geomorphology and past land use, and that Tibouchina is restricted to the wetter part of the region (southern part), which annually receives at least 1600 mm of precipitation. Tibouchina pulchra was found to clearly indicate forest regeneration as almost all individuals were found within or adjacent to forests regrown after 1962. By contrast, Cecropia hololeuca was found to indicate older disturbed forests, with all individuals almost exclusively found in forest fragments already present in 1962. At the regional scale, using the dominance maps of both species, we show that at least 4.3% of the current region's natural forests have regrown after 1962 (Tibouchina dominated, ∼ 4757 ha) and that ∼ 9% of the old natural forests have experienced significant disturbance (Cecropia dominated). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1984, nearly 1,000 people have been killed in the Brazilian Amazon due to land conflicts stemming from unequal distribution of land, land tenure insecurity, and lawlessness. During this same period, the region experienced almost complete deforestation (< 8% forest cover by 2010). Land conflict exacts a human toll, but it also affects agents' decisions about land use, the subject of this article. Using a property-level panel dataset covering the period of redemocratization in Brazil (1984) until the privatization of long-term leases in the Eastern Amazon (2010), we show that deforestation is affected by land conflict, particularly in cases of expropriation of property for agrarian reform settlement formation and when that conflict involves fatalities. Deforestation on agrarian reform settlements is much greater when soils are poor for agriculture and when the land has been the object of past conflict. Deforestation and conflict are episodic, and both agronomic drivers and contentious drivers of land change are active in the region. Ultimately, the outcome of these processes of contentious and agronomic land change is substantial deforestation, regardless of who was in possession and control of the land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amazon is Brazil's greatest natural resource and invaluable to the rest of the world as a buffer against climate change. The recent election of Brazil's president brought disputes over development plans for the region back into the spotlight. Historically, the development model for the Amazon has focused on exploitation of natural resources, resulting in environmental degradation, particularly deforestation. Although considerable attention has focused on the long-term global cost of "losing the Amazon," too little attention has focused on the emergence and reemergence of vector-borne diseases that directly impact the local population, with spillover effects to other neighboring areas. We discuss the impact of Amazon development models on human health, with a focus on vector-borne disease risk. We outline policy actions that could mitigate these negative impacts while creating opportunities for environmentally sensitive economic activities. This Perspective article maintains that a development model for the Amazon must be bold, creative, carefully planned, and sustainable, explicitly acknowledging the importance of public health in reinforcing economic development, environmental protection, and land use change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The correct Funding statement is: This research received financial support from Climate and Land Use Alliance (CLUA) (Grant Number G-2007-56990) and Brazilian National Cancer Institute José Alencar Gomes da Silva (INCA). https://www.climateandlandusealliance.org/ http://www.inca.gov.br The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript and does not necessarily share the positions expressed in the Grantee's publication. We thank the Public Labour Prosecution Office (Ministério Público do Trabalho - MPT) for paying the publication fees through public civil action No. 0100263-41.2021.5.01.0005. [Extracted from the article]

Mangroves play an essential ecological role in the maintenance of the coastal zone and are extremely important for the socioeconomics of coastal communities. However, mangrove ecosystems are impacted by a range of anthropogenic pressures, and the loss of this habitat can be attributed primarily to the human occupation of the coastal zone. In the present study, we analyzed the spatial patterns of land use in the mangrove of the Brazilian Amazon coast, and evaluated the anthropogenic drivers of this impact, using a remote sensing approach. We mapped the road network using RapidEye images, and human settlements using global data. The results of these analyses indicate that the Brazilian Amazon coast has a low population density and low rates of anthropogenic impact in most of the coastal microregions investigated, factors that contribute to the maintenance and conservation of the region’s mangrove. The study also revealed that the paved road network is one of the principal drivers of land use in the mangrove, whereas other factors, such as population density, urban centers, and the number of settlements are much less important. While the region has 2024 km of paved highways, unpaved roads (17,496 km) facilitate access to the mangrove, with approximately 90% of anthropogenic impact being recorded within a 3 km radius of these roads. While the network of paved highways is relatively reduced in extension, preventive measures are urgently required to impede any major shift in the current scenario, caused by the expansion of major development programs. The results of the study indicate that biophysical, economic, and political factors may also contribute to the reduction, stability, and development of one of the world’s largest areas of mangrove forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of their strong dependence on the environment, the spatial distribution of pond-breeding amphibians can be greatly influenced by anthropogenic habitat alteration. In some agricultural landscapes in Brazil, the anuran Pseudopaludicola mystacalis appears to be highly influenced by land use. Because adult males and tadpoles of this species are usually found in marshy areas with cattle hoof prints, we hypothesized that P. mystacalis preferentially occupies aquatic habitats with marshy areas that are trampled by cattle. To test our hypothesis, we assessed whether the occurrence of P. mystacalis is associated with the presence of cattle and trampled marshy areas, and which environmental features best explain the spatial distribution and abundance of P. mystacalis. To do so, we sampled 38 aquatic habitats in an area intensely used for livestock in southeastern Brazil. We found that the presence of cattle and trampled marshy areas in aquatic habitats are positively associated to P. mystacalis occurrence. Additionally, the abundance of calling males is better predicted by variables of landscape and local habitat structure. Specifically, the size of trampled marshy areas and the proportion of herbaceous vegetation within the aquatic habitat are positively associated with abundance, while distance to nearest aquatic habitat are negatively associated with abundance of calling males. All three of these variables can be directly or indirectly linked to the presence of cattle or grazing management. Therefore, this work shows evidence that Pseudopaludicola mystacalis is positively influenced by grazing management with cattle, and draws attention to other unknown potential consequences of different land use to fresh water diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil faces an enormous challenge to implement its revised Forest Code. Despite big losses for the environment, the law introduces new mechanisms to facilitate compliance and foster payment for ecosystem services (PES). The most promising of these is a market for trading forest certificates (CRAs) that allows landowners to offset their restoration obligations by paying for maintaining native vegetation elsewhere. We analyzed the economic potential for the emerging CRA market in Brazil and its implications for PES programs. Results indicate a potential market for trading 4.2 Mha of CRAs with a gross value of US$ 9.2±2.4 billion, with main regional markets forming in the states of Mato Grosso and São Paulo. This would be the largest market for trading forests in the world. Overall, the potential supply of CRAs in Brazilian states exceeds demand, creating an opportunity for additional PES programs to use the CRA market. This expanded market could provide not only monetary incentives to conserve native vegetation, but also environmental co-benefits by fostering PES programs focused on biodiversity, water conservation, and climate regulation. Effective implementation of the Forest Code will be vital to the success of this market and this hurdle brings uncertainty into the market. Long-term commitment, both within Brazil and abroad, will be essential to overcome the many challenges ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing demand for biofuel has intensified land-use change (LUC) for sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) expansion in Brazil. Assessments of soil quality (SQ) response to this LUC are essential for quantifying and monitoring sustainability of sugarcane production over time. Since there is not a universal methodology for assessing SQ, we conducted a field-study at three sites within the largest sugarcane-producing region of Brazil to develop a SQ index (SQI). The most common LUC scenario (i.e., native vegetation to pasture to sugarcane) was evaluated using six SQI strategies with varying complexities. Thirty eight soil indicators were included in the total dataset. Two minimum datasets were selected: one using principal component analysis (7 indicators) and the other based on expert opinion (5 indicators). Non-linear scoring curves were used to interpret the indicator values. Weighted and non-weighted additive methods were used to combine individual indicator scores into an overall SQI. Long-term conversion from native vegetation to extensive pasture significantly decreased overall SQ. In contrast, conversion from pasture to sugarcane had no significant impact on overall SQ at the regional scale, but site-specific responses were found. In general, sugarcane production improved chemical attributes (i.e., higher macronutrient levels and lower soil acidity); however it has negative effects on physical and biological attributes (i.e., higher soil compaction and structural degradation as well as lower soil organic carbon (SOC), abundance and diversity of macrofauna and microbial activity). Overall, we found that simple, user-friendly strategies were as effective as more complex ones for identifying SQ changes. Therefore, as a protocol for SQ assessments in Brazilian sugarcane areas, we recommend using a small number of indicators (e.g., pH, P, K, Visual Evaluation of Soil Structure -VESS scores and SOC concentration) and proportional weighting to reflect chemical, physical and biological processes within the soil. Our SQ evaluations also suggest that current approaches for expanding Brazilian sugarcane production by converting degraded pasture land to cropland can be a sustainable strategy for meeting increasing biofuel demand. However, management practices that alleviate negative impacts on soil physical and biological indicators must be prioritized within sugarcane producing areas to prevent unintentional SQ degradation over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout the Amazon region, the age of forests regenerating on previously deforested land is determined, in part, by the periods of active land use prior to abandonment and the frequency of reclearance of regrowth, both of which can be quantified by comparing time-series of Landsat sensor data. Using these time-series of near annual data from 1973–2011 for an area north of Manaus (in Amazonas state), from 1984–2010 for south of Santarém (Pará state) and 1984–2011 near Machadinho d’Oeste (Rondônia state), the changes in the area of primary forest, non-forest and secondary forest were documented from which the age of regenerating forests, periods of active land use and the frequency of forest reclearance were derived. At Manaus, and at the end of the time-series, over 50% of regenerating forests were older than 16 years, whilst at Santarém and Machadinho d’Oeste, 57% and 41% of forests respectively were aged 6–15 years, with the remainder being mostly younger forests. These differences were attributed to the time since deforestation commenced but also the greater frequencies of reclearance of forests at the latter two sites with short periods of use in the intervening periods. The majority of clearance for agriculture was also found outside of protected areas. The study suggested that a) the history of clearance and land use should be taken into account when protecting deforested land for the purpose of restoring both tree species diversity and biomass through natural regeneration and b) a greater proportion of the forested landscape should be placed under protection, including areas of regrowth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]