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This paper estimates a time-varying reaction function of the median participant of the Federal Open Market Committee, using a Taylor rule with time-varying coefficients estimated on one-to three-year ahead median forecasts of the federal funds rate, ination, and the unemployment rate from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). We estimate the model with Bayesian methods, incorporating the effective lower bound on the median federal funds rate projections. The results indicate that the monetary policy rule has become significantly more persistent after the pandemic than in the years prior, and it currently reacts strongly to ination, at more than twice the responsiveness estimated prior to 2020. Our proposed policy rule produces accurate predictions of the median federal funds rate projections in real time for given SEP forecasts of ination and the unemployment rate, suggesting that the median participant's reaction function is well-represented by our assumed Taylor rule with time-varying coe fficients. Our results show that the median participant's reaction function becomes less persistent and less responsive to ination yet more responsive to the output gap in anticipation of tighter monetary policy conditions, measured by a steeper yield curve. We also find that labor market activity, ination, and macroeconomic uncertainty correlate significantly with the evolution of the time-varying coefficients of the rule. Finally, we show that in times of a less persistent policy rule or more responsiveness to ination, markets perceive nominal bonds as better macroeconomic hedges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a list of books and articles on U.S. economic policy. "Paper Victories: U.S. Steel Mills Win Even When They Lose Trade Cases," by Chris Adams; "Child Care and Mothers' Employment Decisions," by Patricia M. Anderson and Phillip B. Levine; "Press Round-Table," by Charlene Barshefsky.

References for the articles published in the January 1, 2009 issue of the paper "Economic Implications of Labour & Labour-Related Laws on MSEs: A Quick Review of the Latin American Experience" are presented.

Presents a list of books and articles about economic policy in European Union countries. "Study to Analyse, Compare, and Apply Alternative Indicators and Monitoring Methodologies to Measure the Evolution of Capital Market Integration in the European Union," by K. Adam, T. Jappelli, A. Menichini, M. Padula and M. Pagano; "Portfolio Diversification: Alive and Well in Euroland!," by K. Adjaoute and J-P. Danthine; "What Does the European Union Do?," by A. Alesina, I. Angeloni and L. Schuknecht.

Presents a list of books and articles about economic policy in the U.S. "Economic Effects of Fundamental Tax Reform," edited by Henry J. Aaron and William G. Gale; "The Future of Fundamental Tax Reform," by Alan J. Auerbach; "High-Income Tax Returns," by Brian Balkovic.

This paper aims to evaluate the possibilities of augmenting the credit-to-GDP gap series with out-of-sample forecasts to obtain a more stable indicator of excessive credit growth. The credit-to-GDP gap is a standardized and harmonized indicator of the Basel III regulatory framework used to calibrate the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB). Thus, a good indicator should be valid, stable, and represent future financial cycle movements. This research focuses on reducing the end-point bias problem of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter approach to estimating this indicator. This is appropriate for those authorities whose analysis shows that the HP approach best predicts the financial crisis. Several popular models of out-of-sample forecasting are tested on Croatian data to extend the filtered original series, and the results are compared based on multiple criteria. These include the stability of the indicator, not just the usual model forecasting capabilities. The autoregressive approach, alongside the random walk model, was the best-performing one. The results of this study can be used in real-time decision-making, as they are relatively simple to estimate and communicate. Such augmented gaps reduce the bias in the series after the financial cycle turns. Moreover, the paper suggests possible corrections to the credit-to-GDP gap so that the resulting indicators are less volatile over time with stable signals for the policy decision-maker. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a list of books related to the economy of Hungary.

Presents a bibliography of publications and articles related to New Zealand's economy.