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Motivation and method: Existing rational expectations models cannot satisfactorily explain why political budget manipulations systematically raise re-election chances and only occur in “specific contexts”. This paper offers a theoretical explanation by including unsophisticated voters into an opportunistic political cycle model; unsophisticated voters are unable to take the optimal behaviour of other agents (fully) into account, but may, nonetheless, vaguely suspect government deception. Results: First, rationally expected manipulations are, on average, fruitless in equilibrium. By including unsophisticated voters we can, however, corroborate empirically found electoral effects of political budget manipulations. Second, unsophisticated voters become anxious and suspicious in an intransparent or uncertain world, but the government tries to “outperform” their scepticism by increasing budget manipulations in order to appear more competent and, ultimately, increase re-election chances. It is, therefore, not surprising that political budget cycles are observed in countries suffering from intransparencies such as developing countries or new democracies. Third and in addition, the model presented here predicts that political opportunism produces, unintentionally, a countercyclical policy effect in election years, thereby, for instance, alleviating the typical problem of policy procyclicality in developing countries. Additional contribution: The paper also offers a theoretical explanation for political distortions found in forecasts by US states. Based on overly optimistic revenue forecasts the incumbent state government can conduct expansionary fiscal policies in order to appear more competent prior to an upcoming election. Since the resulting deficit can only be observed afterwards, the government can effectively circumvent a constitutional balanced budget constraint. As a result, there are political forecast and budget cycles in the state. More generally, however, these findings may also apply to European countries where balanced budget constraints are or will be in place (for instance the debt brakes in Switzerland and Germany); similarly, they apply to the supra-national European Fiscal Compact of the European Union. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely recognized that increasing agricultural production to the levels needed to feed an expanding world population requires sharply increased public investment in research and development and widespread adoption of new technologies, but funding for national and international agricultural research has rather declined in recent years. In this situation, priority setting has become increasingly important for allocating scarce research resources among competing needs to achieve greater impacts. Using partial equilibrium economic surplus models and poverty impact simulations, this paper assesses cassava research priorities in Africa, Latin America and Caribbean, and Asia based on the potential economic and poverty reduction impacts of alternative research and technology options. The results showed that efficient planting material production and distribution systems and sustainable crop and soil fertility management practices have the greatest expected economic and poverty reduction impacts in the three regions. Lack of clean planting materials is a major constraint to adoption and it is envisaged that efficient production and distribution systems for planting material can accelerate technology adoption by farmers. Similarly, sustainable crop and soil fertility management practices play a key role in closing the observed yield gaps, especially in Africa. The paper discusses the results of the priority assessment for key cassava research options and concludes with the implications for cassava research priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recreational fishing is often perceived as harmless when it comes to fisheries management, and its impact often estimated to surpass the economic outcomes of e.g. large-scale fisheries. Recreational fisheries are often an indication of political stability and sound ecosystem management. However, despite a high economic impact, the economic costs on traditional and small-scale commercial fishers is yet to be known. This paper answers the question of how unregulated recreational fisheries could rather generate a loss to an economy, and cause unfair competition with existing commercial sectors using the example of Algeria. This paper assesses catches and economic value of recreational fisheries in Algeria, and finds that over 6,000 tonnes reach commercial markets annually, competing directly with the small-scale artisanal sector, while selling recreationally caught fish is still illegal. The paper further finds that the public is thereby deprived—through lost tax, licence income and landed value of $45 million US annually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we explore the problem of establishing a network among the stocks of a market at high frequency level and give an application to program trading. Our work uses high frequency data from the National Stock Exchange, India, for the year 2014. To begin, we analyse the spectrum of the correlation matrix to establish the presence of linear relations amongst the stock returns. A comparison of correlations with pairwise mutual information shows the further existence of non-linear relations which are not captured by correlation. We also see that the non-linear relations are more pronounced at the high frequency level in comparison to the daily returns used in earlier work. We provide two applications of this approach. First, we construct minimal spanning trees for the stock network based on mutual information and study their topology. The year 2014 saw the conduct of general elections in India and the data allows us to explore their impact on aspects of the network, such as the scale-free property and sectorial clusters. Second, having established the presence of non-linear relations, we would like to be able to exploit them. Previous authors have suggested that peripheral stocks in the network would make good proxies for the Markowitz portfolio but with a much smaller number of stocks. We show that peripheral stocks selected using mutual information perform significantly better than ones selected using correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tobacco industry interference has been identified as the greatest obstacle to the implementation of evidence-based measures to reduce tobacco use. Understanding and addressing industry interference in public health policy-making is therefore crucial. Existing conceptualisations of corporate political activity (CPA) are embedded in a business perspective and do not attend to CPA's social and public health costs; most have not drawn on the unique resource represented by internal tobacco industry documents. Building on this literature, including systematic reviews, we develop a critically informed conceptual model of tobacco industry political activity.Methods and Findings: We thematically analysed published papers included in two systematic reviews examining tobacco industry influence on taxation and marketing of tobacco; we included 45 of 46 papers in the former category and 20 of 48 papers in the latter (n = 65). We used a grounded theory approach to build taxonomies of "discursive" (argument-based) and "instrumental" (action-based) industry strategies and from these devised the Policy Dystopia Model, which shows that the industry, working through different constituencies, constructs a metanarrative to argue that proposed policies will lead to a dysfunctional future of policy failure and widely dispersed adverse social and economic consequences. Simultaneously, it uses diverse, interlocking insider and outsider instrumental strategies to disseminate this narrative and enhance its persuasiveness in order to secure its preferred policy outcomes. Limitations are that many papers were historical (some dating back to the 1970s) and focused on high-income regions.Conclusions: The model provides an evidence-based, accessible way of understanding diverse corporate political strategies. It should enable public health actors and officials to preempt these strategies and develop realistic assessments of the industry's claims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The main aims of this paper are to analyse the monetary value of informal care time using different techniques and to identify significant variables associated with the number of caregiving hours. Data and methods: A multicentre study in two Spanish regions in adult caregivers was conducted. A total sample of 604 people was available. A multivariate analysis was performed to identify the variables associated with the number of hours of caregiving time. In the monetary valuation of informal care provided, three approaches were used: replacement cost method, opportunity cost and contingent valuation (willingness to pay and willingness to accept). Results: The main determinants of the amount of time of informal care provided were age, gender, the level of care receiver´s dependence and the professional care services received (at home and out of home). The value estimated for informal care time ranges from EUROS 80,247 (replacement cost method) to EUROS 14,325 (willingness to pay), with intermediate values of EUROS 27,140 and EUROS 29,343 (opportunity cost and willingness to accept, respectively). Several sensitivity analyses were performed over the base cases, confirming the previous results. Conclusions: Time of informal care represents a great social value, regardless of the applied technique. However, the results can differ strongly depending on the technique chosen. Therefore, the choice of technique of valuation is not neutral. Among the determinants of informal care time, the professional care received at home has a complementary character to informal care, while the formal care outside the home has a substitute character. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I aim to explore the effect of good governance on equity returns, and empirically investigate if governance at the country level has asset pricing implications and contributes to the idiosyncrasy of price jumps. Jumps are found to be far less systematic than the smooth (non-jump) component of country price indexes. Hence, if jumps are more idiosyncratic, governance should primarily affect the jump risk component. This is good news for international investors, because diversification provides insurance against jumps. Relying on an equilibrium asset-pricing model in an economy under jump diffusion, I decompose the moments of the returns of international stock markets into a diffusive (systematic) risk and a (idiosyncratic) jump risk part. For a balanced panel of 52 countries, my results suggest that governance is an important determinant of (idiosyncratic) jump risk. Stock markets in poorly governed countries are characterized by higher volatility and more negative return asymmetry, primarily driven by the higher jump risk. Regulatory quality, the government effectiveness and the control of corruption appear to be most important. Results are robust to the inclusion of various controls for other country- or market-specific characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accumulation of knowledge required to produce economic value is a process that often relates to nations economic growth. Some decades ago many authors, in the absence of other available indicators, used to rely on certain measures of human capital such as years of schooling, enrollment rates, or literacy. In this paper, we show that the predictive power of years of education as a proxy for human capital started to dwindle in 1990 when the schooling of nations began to be homogenized. We developed a structural equation model that estimates a metric of human capital that is less sensitive than average years of education and remains as a significant predictor of economic growth when tested with both cross-section data and panel data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The particularities of agriculture, as a sector which ensures food supply, result from many factors, including the multilateral interaction between the environment and human activity. The extent of human intervention in the food production process is usually measured with the amount of capital expenditure. Therefore, the food production potential and the resulting food security depend on both natural and economic factors. This paper identifies the current status of food security in different countries around the world, considering both aspects (physical and economic availability) combined together. The variables published by FAO were used together with a variable estimated based on the author’s own methodology to identify 8 groups of countries characterized by economic development level, net trade in agricultural products, and selected variables related to agriculture and food situation. As shown by this study, the degree to which food security is ensured with domestic supply varies strongly across the globe. Domestic production provides a foundation for food security in wealthy countries, usually located in areas with favorable conditions for agriculture (including North America, Australia, New Zealand, Kazakhstan) and in countries which, though characterized by a relatively small area of arable land per capita, demonstrate high production intensity (mainly European countries). International trade largely contributes to food security in Middle East and North African countries as well as in selected South American countries which are net importers of food products. The most problematic food situation continues to affect Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are more than one billion smokers globally according to the World Health Organization (WHO) report in 2017. Every year tobacco use causes nearly 6 million deaths worldwide. To deal with the smoking epidemic, society needs to invest resources efficiently. In this paper we introduce an optimal control model to determine the optimal mix of smoking initiation and cessation interventions to reduce smoking. We construct the model to reach a smoking prevalence target within a specific time horizon while minimizing cost. Our performance measure captures the cost of policy implementation over time, adjusting for inflation and social discounting. The analytical solutions to the model are presented in forms of ordinary differential equations (ODE). We then conduct several numerical simulations using data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and empirical studies. We first present analytical solutions for our model to solve for the optimal mix of smoking interventions. Then we simulate a public health policy to achieve 5% smoking prevalence in the US by 2030 using different combinations of real-life interventions. We examine the optimal trajectories, allocative efficiency and annual total cost of smoking cessation and initiation interventions. We find consistent results across all simulations. Our specific example reveals that the most efficient way to reach stated goal is by targeting cessation interventions first, and then gradually shifting resources to initiation interventions over time. While our numerical results are specific to the intervention we selected, our framework can be easily expanded to consider other potential interventions. We discuss the implications of our approach for the formulation of dynamic public health policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does economic globalization influence the positioning of parties and, as a consequence, the ideological characteristics of party systems? Answering this question is important because we need to understand the constraints that parties face in formulating policies from which voters have to choose. In our paper, we take a systemic perspective and conceptualize a party system’s ideological center of gravity as the outcome of interest. We define the center of gravity as the weighted mean position of all parliamentary parties in a country that represents the position to which parties gravitate. We start by formulating static hypotheses on the effect of imports and exports on the center of gravity and derive their underlying mechanisms. We further derive dynamic hypotheses stipulating varying effects over time based on the premise that partisan attitudes toward globalization have undergone multiple changes over the last decades. A time-series cross-section analysis of 129 elections in 15 Western European countries from 1974 to 2015 finds evidence for opposite effects of exports and imports in the pooled data. Additionally, a moving-window analysis indicates that the relationship between globalization and the center of gravity varies over time. This is a significant finding because it suggests that economic globalization has an influence on party systems and that it is important to test for time-varying effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is some evidence that liberal politicians use more complex language than conservative politicians. This evidence, however, is based on a specific set of speeches of US members of Congress and UK members of Parliament. This raises the question whether the relationship between ideology and linguistic complexity is a more general phenomenon or specific to this small group of politicians. To address this question, this paper analyzes 381,609 speeches given by politicians from five parliaments, by twelve European prime ministers, as well as speeches from party congresses over time and across countries. Our results replicate and generalize earlier findings: speakers from culturally liberal parties use more complex language than speakers from culturally conservative parties. Economic left-right differences, on the other hand, are not systematically linked to linguistic complexity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we pursue an alternative method to measure the Value Added Tax gap in the European Union using the stochastic tax frontier model. We use the Value Added Tax total tax liability as the input to estimate the optimal frontier of the Value Added Tax, as well as to predict technical inefficiency. Using the latest innovations of the stochastic frontier approach, we aim to obtain the accurate size of the Value Added Tax gap in the EU-26 countries and contrast them with extant estimates. The obtained estimates of the Value Added Tax gap using the stochastic tax frontier model are different from the estimates produced by the top-down method to calculate the Value Added Tax gap in the EU. Moreover, the stochastic tax frontier approach allows us to disentangle the Value Added Tax gap, which is time dependent, from the persistent Value Added Tax gap, which is country specific. The stochastic tax frontier model allows us to test the effect of exogenous factors on the technical inefficiency of the Value Added Tax and propose appropriate policy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Problem: Do conservative econometric models that comply with the Golden Rule of Forecasting provide more accurate forecasts? Methods: To test the effects of forecast accuracy, we applied three evidence-based guidelines to 19 published regression models used for forecasting 154 elections in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, U.K., and the U.S. The guidelines direct forecasters using causal models to be conservative to account for uncertainty by (I) modifying effect estimates to reflect uncertainty either by damping coefficients towards no effect or equalizing coefficients, (II) combining forecasts from diverse models, and (III) incorporating more knowledge by including more variables with known important effects. Findings: Modifying the econometric models to make them more conservative reduced forecast errors compared to forecasts from the original models: (I) Damping coefficients by 10% reduced error by 2% on average, although further damping generally harmed accuracy; modifying coefficients by equalizing coefficients consistently reduced errors with average error reductions between 2% and 8% depending on the level of equalizing. Averaging the original regression model forecast with an equal-weights model forecast reduced error by 7%. (II) Combining forecasts from two Australian models and from eight U.S. models reduced error by 14% and 36%, respectively. (III) Using more knowledge by including all six unique variables from the Australian models and all 24 unique variables from the U.S. models in equal-weight “knowledge models” reduced error by 10% and 43%, respectively. Originality: This paper provides the first test of applying guidelines for conservative forecasting to established election forecasting models. Usefulness: Election forecasters can substantially improve the accuracy of forecasts from econometric models by following simple guidelines for conservative forecasting. Decision-makers can make better decisions when they are provided with models that are more realistic and forecasts that are more accurate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Public health spending in India has been traditionally one of the lowest globally. Punjab is one of the states with highest proportion of out-of-pocket expenditures for healthcare in India. We undertook this study to produce the sub-national health accounts (SNHA) for Punjab state in India. Methodology: We used System of Health Accounts (SHA) 2011 framework for preparing health accounts for Punjab state. Data on health spending by government was obtained from concerned public sector departments both at state and central level. Estimates on Out-of-Pocket Expenditures (OOPE) expenditure were derived from National Sample Survey (NSS) 71st round data, Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) data and Pharmatrac. Primary surveys were done for assessing health expenditure data by firms and non-governmental organizations. All estimates of healthcare expenditures reported in our paper pertain to 2013–14, and are reported in both Indian National Rupee (INR) and United States Dollar (US $),using average conversion rate of INR 60.50 per US $. Results: In 2013–14, the current health expenditures (CE) in Punjab was INR 134,680million (US $ 2245 million) which was 4.02% of its gross state domestic product (GSDP).However, public spending on health was 0.95% of GSDP i.e. 21% of the total health expenditure (THE), while 79% was private expenditure. In per capita terms, THE in Punjab was INR 4963 (US $ 82.03). In terms of functions, medical goods (41.6%) and curative care (37%) consumed larger share of expenditure in the Punjab state. Households spent 52% of expenditures for medicines and other pharmaceutical goods. Risk pooling mechanisms are being adopted to a lesser extent in the state. Conclusion: The healthcare in Punjab is largely financed through private OOPE. Currently, public health spending in Punjab is inadequate to meet the healthcare demands of population, which is less than 1% of state’s GSDP. Monitoring public resources is very important for better resource allocations. Health Accounts production is useful in order to assess future trends and impact of health financing policies on goals of universal health coverage and should be made a part of routine monitoring system both at national and sub-national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper describes the association between workplace violence and job satisfaction among physicians and nurses in Macau. Convenience sampling was sourced from six health centers under the Macau Health Bureau. Methods: This study uses a cross-sectional self-administrative survey. The study used case studies research instruments for workplace violence in the health sector by country (from the ILO, ICN, WHO, PSI), the Minnesota Satisfaction Questionnaire and Perceived Stress Scale. The data collection period spanned from August to December, 2014. Data analysis: Multiple logistic regression examines levels of intrinsic and extrinsic satisfaction in physicians and nurses and significant correlates affecting their job satisfaction. Results: A total of 720 (14.9% physicians) participants were recruited. 57.2% of participants reported physical and psychological workplace violence in the preceding year. The most common forms of workplace violence were verbal abuse (53.4%), physical assault (16.1%), bullying / harassment (14.2%), sexual harassment (4.6%) and racial harassment (2.6%). Nurses were at a significantly higher risk of physical assault and verbal abuse compared to physicians. Patients, patients’ relatives, and colleagues were the main perpetrators. Worry about WPV, on-call duty and shift work, experience of bullying and verbal abuse and employment sector emerged as significant correlates affecting the intrinsic and extrinsic job satisfaction of physicians and nurses. Frontline staff, aged 30 and 39, coming from an ethnic minority, and perceived stress were significant correlates affecting nurses’ job satisfaction. Conclusions: WPV remains a significant concern in healthcare settings in Macau. Stakeholders should legally enforce a zero-tolerance policy towards WPV within healthcare workplaces. WPV is detrimental to healthcare professionals’ mental wellbeing, risking irreversible physical and psychological harm for its victims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses two nationally representative sets of medical claims data from medical assistance and universal public health insurance systems to examine how medical assistance system assignment affects short-term inpatient health care provision. In Japan, the medical assistance system, which is part of a public assistance system, provides medical care services for its beneficiaries without imposing any financial burdens, such as copayments or advance premium payments. These circumstances can lead to inpatient costs, as physicians may provide more treatments because there is a financial incentive. Because the assignment of public assistance in Japan is not random but is subject to means testing by the local government, I employ the instrumental variable model to control the potential correlation. I find that medical expenditure is significantly higher for medical assistance patients than for universal public health insurance patients, with an arc elasticity of approximately 0.20. This elasticity is slightly greater than that found for inpatient care in the randomized RAND Health Insurance Experiment and recent empirical studies on low-income populations. In addition, the elasticities for patients who receive medication, treatment and surgery are greater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensuring quality of care in nursing homes is a public health priority, yet how nursing home quality relates to cost is not well understood. This paper addresses this relationship for 132 VA community living centers (nursing homes), for fiscal years 2014 and 2015. We estimated cost models using the VA Decision Support System which tracks total direct costs and nursing direct costs for individual resident segments of care. We summed residents’ total costs and nursing costs to the community living center level for each year. Annual facility costs then were regressed on quality of care measured with composite scores based on 13 distinct adverse events. Results indicated that higher quality was associated with higher predicted cost. However, we did not find evidence that higher costs were driven by high nurse staffing levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Personhood discourses in dementia care have gained prominence and current care home standards mandate that care should be “person-centred”. However, it is unclear how the personhood of staff is construed within the care relationship. This paper aims to explore how the personhood of paid carers of people with dementia can be understood by focussing on the views and experiences of care home staff. We undertook a secondary qualitative analysis of interviews with 25 paid care staff in England, conducted as part of the MARQUE (Managing Agitation and Raising QUality of lifE) study. The authors inductively developed themes around the topic of personhood for staff, contrasting management and care staff perspectives. We found that many care staff are not identified as persons in their own right by their employing institutions, and that there is a general lack of acknowledgment of the moral work of caring that occurs within formal care work. This oversight can reduce the complex relationships of care work to a series of care tasks, challenges care workers’ self-worth and self-efficacy, and impede their efforts to deliver person-centred care. We conclude that care staff status as persons in their own right should be explicitly considered in quality standards and supported by employers’ policies and practices, not simply for their role in preserving the personhood of people with dementia but for their own sense of valued personhood. Enhancing staff personhood may also result in improved care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates institutional change in the Polish public science system (PPSS) in the past twenty years. Employing macro-statistical data, the paper argues that this change process has unfolded stepwise and relatively late despite major political and economic transformations in post-socialist Poland. Using a historical-institutionalist perspective, the paper focuses on processes of institutional change, including layering, displacement, and dismantling. One major finding is that the speed and depth of the gradual transformation differs considerably between the three research performing sectors of the Polish public science system. As the Polish Academy of Sciences was reproduced institutionally, the former governmental units for applied R&D were partly dismantled and displaced by private sector R&D units. In contrast, the Higher Education sector underwent a strong expansion and, thus, layering of new research activities and fields. Since policy shifts within the PPSS occurred relatively late, the more than two decades following the collapse of communism are of special interest to scholars of incremental, yet cumulative, institutional change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate how crude oil price and volume traded affected the profitability of oil and gas companies in the United Kingdom (UK) since the financial crisis started in 2008. The study benefit from insights of the financial statements, to develop a model that focuses on how changes in oil price impact corporate performance. In order to observe the financial indicators that influence the performance, as well as the effects that changes in oil prices and demand of crude oil have on the profitability of oil and gas companies, we apply comparative regression analysis, including the generalised method of moments estimation technique for panel data set. The sample is consisting of 31 oil and gas companies in the UK, and the period analysed is 2006–2014. Results show that profitable oil and gas companies managed to face the drop in oil price and recover, characterized by significant cash flows and stock turnover, efficient use of assets, and high solvency rates. Although the oil price and volume traded do not significantly affect profitability and other financial ratios, if the oil price continues to decrease, it would permanently alter both the UK economy and oil and gas companies. In order to survive, companies make drastic cuts and defer essential investments, often at the long-term expense of asset performance. This study is important in a world where the energy consumption steadily grew over time. However, the renewable energy is cheaper and more environmentally friendly, and thus, countries where oil and gas industry is one of the most popular sectors face an economic decline. These results could be useful for investors, managers or decision makers, reclaiming strategic decisions in the current uncertain and volatile environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research suggests that psychological needs can influence the political attitudes of ordinary citizens, often outside of their conscious awareness. In this paper, we investigate whether psychological needs also shape the spending priorities of political elites in the US. Most models of policymaking assume that political elites respond to information in relatively homogeneous ways. We suggest otherwise, and explore one source of difference in information processing, namely, threat sensitivity, which previous research links to increased support for conservative policy attitudes. Drawing on a sample of state-level policymakers, we measure their spending priorities using a survey and their level of threat sensitivity using a standard psychophysiological measure (skin conductance). We find that, like ordinary citizens, threat sensitivity leads even state-level policymakers to prioritize spending on government polices that are designed to minimize threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strategic purchasing is an essential health financing function. This paper compares the strategic purchasing practices of Thailand’s two tax-financed health insurance schemes, the Universal Coverage Scheme (UCS) and the Civil Servant Medical Benefit Scheme (CSMBS), and identifies factors contributing to successful universal health coverage outcomes by analysing the relationships between the purchaser and government, providers and members. The study uses a cross-sectional mixed-methods design, including document review and interviews with 56 key informants. The Comptroller General Department (CGD) of Ministry of Finance manages CSMBS as one among civil servant welfare programmes. Their purchasing is passive. Fee for service payment for outpatient care has resulted in rapid cost escalation and overspending of their annual budget. In contrast, National Health Security Office (NHSO) manages purchasing for UCS, which undertakes a range of strategic purchasing actions, including applying closed ended provider payment, promoting primary healthcare’s gate keeping functions, exercising collective purchasing power and engaging views of members in decision making process. This difference in purchasing arrangements resulted in expenditure per CSMBS member being 4 times higher than UCS in 2014. The governance of the purchaser organization, the design of the purchasing arrangements including incentives and use of information, and the institutional capacities to implement purchasing functions are essential for effective strategic purchasing which can improve health system efficiency as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiechelon supply chains are complex logistics systems that require flexibility and coordination at a tactical level to cope with environmental uncertainties in an efficient and effective manner. To cope with these challenges, mathematical programming models are developed to evaluate supply chain flexibility. However, under uncertainty, supply chain models become complex and the scope of flexibility analysis is generally reduced. This paper presents a unified approach that can evaluate the flexibility of a four-echelon supply chain via a robust stochastic programming model. The model simultaneously considers the plans of multiple business divisions such as marketing, logistics, manufacturing, and procurement, whose goals are often conflicting. A numerical example with deterministic parameters is presented to introduce the analysis, and then, the model stochastic parameters are considered to evaluate flexibility. The results of the analysis on supply, manufacturing, and distribution flexibility are presented. Tradeoff analysis of demand variability and service levels is also carried out. The proposed approach facilitates the adoption of different management styles, thus improving supply chain resilience. The model can be extended to contexts pertaining to supply chain disruptions; for example, the model can be used to explore operation strategies when subtle events disrupt supply, manufacturing, or distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Engaged scholarship, a movement that has been growing steadily since 1995, offers a new way of bridging gaps between the university and civil society. Numerous papers and reports have been published since Boyer’s foundational discourse in 1996. Yet, beyond a growing interest in orienting universities’ missions, we observed a lack a formal definition and conceptualization of this movement. Based on a scoping review of the literature over the past 20 years, the objective of this article is to propose a conceptualization of engaged scholarship. More specifically, we define its values, principles, and processes. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of this new posture for faculty and students, as well as for the university as an institution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study investigated two followership behaviors, followers’ active engagement and followers’ independent critical thinking, and their relationship with job satisfaction in a sample of nurses. In addition, the study also considered a number of control variables and classical job demands and job resources—workload and emotional dissonance for job demands, and meaningful work for job resources—which have an impact on well-being at work. A paper-and-pencil questionnaire was administered to 425 nurses in an Italian hospital, and a hierarchical multiple regression was used to test the hypotheses. In addition to the job demands and job resources considered, followers’ active engagement had a significant impact on job satisfaction. Moreover, it showed a significant linear and curvilinear relationship with the outcome variable. Followers’ independent critical thinking has a non significant relationship with job satisfaction, confirming the mixed results obtained in the past for this dimension. These findings bore out the importance of analyzing followers’ behaviors as potential resources that people can use on the job to increase their own well-being. Looking at followers not just as passive recipients but as active and proactive employees can also benefit the organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for optimal policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government’s proposed pension reform that plans to radically change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is concerned. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of reliability of the Social Security forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the economic transition, manufacturing in China has undergone profound changes not only in number of enterprises, but also in ownership structure and intra-urban spatial distribution. Investigating the changing manufacturing landscape from the perspective of ownership structure is critical to a deep understanding of the changing role of market and government in re-shaping manufacturing location behavior. Through a case study of Wuxi, a city experiencing comprehensive ownership reform, this paper presents a detailed analysis of the intra-urban spatial shift of manufacturing, identifies the location discrepancies, and examines the underlying forces responsible for the geographical differentiations. Through zone- and district-based analysis, a distinctive trend of decentralization and suburbanization, as well as an uneven distribution of manufacturing, is unveiled. The results of Location Quotient analysis show that the distribution of manufacturing by ownership exhibits distinctive spatial patterns, which is characterized by a historically-based, market-led, and institutionally-created spatial variation. By employing Hot Spot analysis, the role of development zones in attracting manufacturing enterprises of different ownerships is established. Overall, the location behavior of the diversified manufacturing has been increasingly based on the forces of market since the land marketization began. A proactive role played by local governments has also guided the enterprise location decision through spatial planning and regulatory policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do institutions grow? Despite nearly a century of scientific effort, there remains little consensus on this topic. This paper offers a new approach that focuses on energy consumption. A systematic relation exists between institution size and energy consumption per capita: as energy consumption increases, institutions become larger. I hypothesize that this relation results from the interplay between technological scale and human biological limitations. I also show how a simple stochastic model can be used to link energy consumption with firm dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Good governance (GG) is an important concept that has evolved as a set of normative principles for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to strengthen the functional capacity of their public bodies, and as a conditional prerequisite to receive donor funding. Although much is written on good governance, very little is known on how to implement it. This paper documents the process of developing a strategy to implement a GG model for Health Technology Management (HTM) in the public health sector, based on lessons learned from twenty years of experience in policy development and implementation in Benin. The model comprises six phases: (i) preparatory analysis, assessing the effects of previous policies and characterizing the HTM system; (ii) stakeholder identification and problem analysis, making explicit the perceptions of problems by a diverse range of actors, and assessing their ability to solve these problems; (iii) shared analysis and visioning, delineating the root causes of problems and hypothesizing solutions; (iv) development of policy instruments for pilot testing, based on quick-win solutions to understand the system’s responses to change; (v) policy development and validation, translating the consensus solutions identified by stakeholders into a policy; and (vi) policy implementation and evaluation, implementing the policy through a cycle of planning, action, observation and reflection. The policy development process can be characterized as bottom-up, with a central focus on the participation of diverse stakeholders groups. Interactive and analytical tools of action research were used to integrate knowledge amongst actor groups, identify consensus solutions and develop the policy in a way that satisfies criteria of GG. This model could be useful for other LMICs where resources are constrained and the majority of healthcare technologies are imported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease impose substantial clinical and economic burdens for seniors (age 65 and above) and the Medicare program. Intensive Behavioral Counseling (IBC) interventions like the National Diabetes Prevention Program (NDPP), have demonstrated effectiveness in reducing excess body weight and lowering or delaying morbidity onset. This paper estimated the potential health implications and medical savings of a digital version of IBC modeled after the NDPP. Methods and Findings: Participants in this digital IBC intervention, the Omada program, include 1,121 overweight or obese seniors with additional risk factors for diabetes or heart disease. Weight changes were objectively measured via participant use of a networked weight scale. Participants averaged 6.8% reduction in body weight within 26 weeks, and 89% of participants completed 9 or more of the 16 core phase lessons. We used a Markov-based microsimulation model to simulate the impact of weight loss on future health states and medical expenditures over 10 years. Cumulative per capita medical expenditure savings over 3, 5 and 10 years ranged from $1,720 to 1,770 (3 years), $3,840 to $4,240 (5 years) and $11,550 to $14,200 (10 years). The range reflects assumptions of weight re-gain similar to that seen in the DPP clinical trial (lower bound) or minimal weight re-gain aligned with age-adjusted national averages (upper bound). The estimated net economic benefit after IBC costs is $10,250 to $12,840 cumulative over 10 years. Simulation outcomes suggest reduced incidence of diabetes by 27–41% for participants with prediabetes, and stroke by approximately 15% over 5 years. Conclusions: A digital, remotely-delivered IBC program can help seniors at risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease achieve significant weight loss, reduces risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and achieve meaningful medical cost savings. These findings affirm recommendations for IBC coverage by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to examine the extent to which technological advances can enhance inter-organizational information sharing in disaster relief. Our case is the Virtual OSOCC (On-Site Operations Coordination Centre) which is a part of the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) under the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA). The online platform, which has been developing for more than a decade, provides a unique insight into coordination behaviour among disaster management agencies and individual actors. We build our study on the analysis of a complete database of user interaction including more than 20,000 users and 11,000 comments spread across approximately 300 disaster events. Controlling for types and severities of the events, location-specific vulnerabilities, and the overall trends, we find that the introduction of new features have led to increases in user activity. We supplement the data-driven approach with evidence from semi-structured interviews with administrators and key users, as well as a survey among all users specifically designed to capture and assess the elements highlighted by both interviews and data analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the potential causal relationship(s) between China’s urbanization and income inequality since the start of the economic reform. Based on the economic theory of urbanization and income distribution, we analyze the annual time series of China’s urbanization rate and Gini index from 1978 to 2014. The results show that urbanization has an immediate alleviating effect on income inequality, as indicated by the negative relationship between the two time series at the same year (lag = 0). However, urbanization also seems to have a lagged aggravating effect on income inequality, as indicated by positive relationship between urbanization and the Gini index series at lag 1. Although the link between urbanization and income inequality is not surprising, the lagged aggravating effect of urbanization on the Gini index challenges the popular belief that urbanization in post-reform China generally helps reduce income inequality. At deeper levels, our results suggest an urgent need to focus on the social dimension of urbanization as China transitions to the next stage of modernization. Comprehensive social reforms must be prioritized to avoid a long-term economic dichotomy and permanent social segregation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops an agent-based computational model of violent political revolutions in which a subjugated population of citizens and an armed revolutionary organisation attempt to overthrow a central authority and its loyal forces. The model replicates several patterns of rebellion consistent with major historical revolutions, and provides an explanation for the multiplicity of outcomes that can arise from an uprising. The relevance of the heterogeneity of scenarios predicted by the model can be understood by considering the recent experience of the Arab Spring involving several rebellions that arose in an apparently similar way, but resulted in completely different political outcomes: the successful revolution in Tunisia, the failed protests in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and civil war in Syria and Libya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to estimate the consequences of an additional 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on health and health care expenditure. Participants were adult (aged > = 20) Australians alive in 2010, who were modelled over their remaining lifetime. We used lifetable-based epidemiological modelling to examine the potential impact of a 20% valoric tax on SSBs on total lifetime disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, prevalence, and mortality of obesity-related disease, and health care expenditure. Over the lifetime of adult Australian alive in 2010, seemingly modest estimated changes in average body mass as a result of the SSB tax translated to gains of 112,000 health-adjusted life years for men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 73,000–155,000) and 56,000 (95% UI: 36,000–76,000) for women, and a reduction in overall health care expenditure of AUD609 million (95% UI: 368 million– 870 million). The tax is estimated to reduce the number of new type 2 diabetes cases by approximately 800 per year. Twenty-five years after the introduction of the tax, there would be 4,400 fewer prevalent cases of heart disease and 1,100 fewer persons living with the consequences of stroke, and an estimated 1606 extra people would be alive as a result of the tax. The tax would generate an estimated AUD400 million in revenue each year. Governments should consider increasing the tax on sugared drinks. This would improve population health, reduce health care costs, as well as bring in direct revenue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the Psychological Capital Questionnaire (PCQ) being the standard measure to assess psychological capital (PsyCap) in the context of organizations, this paper aims to broaden this domain-specific approach by introducing a measure with universal claim. Two studies were conducted to create and validate a German self-report scale (CPC-12) measuring PsyCap. We performed confirmatory factor analyses and correlations with other positive psychological constructs on the data of two German samples (N1 = 321; N2 = 202). The twelve-item CPC-12 exhibits the anticipated factorial structure with a very good model fit and associations to other constructs concur with previous findings with other measures of PsyCap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do citations accumulate too slowly in the social sciences to be used to assess the quality of recent articles? I investigate whether this is the case using citation data for all articles in economics and political science published in 2006 and indexed in the Web of Science. I find that citations in the first two years after publication explain more than half of the variation in cumulative citations received over a longer period. Journal impact factors improve the correlation between the predicted and actual future ranks of journal articles when using citation data from 2006 alone but the effect declines sharply thereafter. Finally, more than half of the papers in the top 20% in 2012 were already in the top 20% in the year of publication (2006). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese rare earth export policies currently result in accelerating its depletion. Thus adopting an optimal export trade selection strategy is crucial to determining and ultimately identifying the ideal trading partners. This paper introduces a multi-attribute decision-making methodology which is then used to select the optimal trading partner. In the method, an evaluation criteria system is established to assess the seven top trading partners based on three dimensions: political relationships, economic benefits and industrial security. Specifically, a simple additive weighing model derived from an additive utility function is utilized to calculate, rank and select alternatives. Results show that Japan would be the optimal trading partner for Chinese rare earths. The criteria evaluation method of trading partners for China's rare earth exports provides the Chinese government with a tool to enhance rare earth industrial policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Urban population in China is mainly covered by two medical insurance schemes: the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) for urban employees in formal sector and the Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance (URBMI) for the left urban residents, mainly the unemployed, the elderly and children. This paper studies the effects of UEBMI and URBMI on health services utilisation in Shaanxi Province, Western China. Methods: Cross-sectional data from the 4th National Health Services Survey - Shaanxi Province was studied. The propensity score matching and the coarsened exact matching methods have been used to estimate the average medical insurance effect on the insured. Results: Compared to the uninsured, robust results suggest that UEBMI had significantly increased the outpatient health services utilisation in the last two weeks (p<0.10), whilst the significant effect on hospitalisation was evident in the CEM method (p<0.10). The effect of URBMI was limited in that although being insured was associated with higher health services utilisation, compared with the uninsured, none of the improvement was statistically significant (p>0.10). It was also found that compared with the uninsured, basic medical insurance enrollees were more likely to purchase inpatient treatments in lower levels of hospitals, consistent with the incentive of the benefit package design. Conclusion: Basic Medical insurance schemes have shown a positive but limited effect on increasing health services utilisation in Shaanxi Province. The benefit package design of higher reimbursement rates for lower level hospitals has induced the insured to use medical services in lower level hospitals for inpatient services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control makes a number of recommendations aimed at restricting the marketing of tobacco products. Tobacco industry political activity has been identified as an obstacle to Parties’ development and implementation of these provisions. This study systematically reviews the existing literature on tobacco industry efforts to influence marketing regulations and develops taxonomies of 1) industry strategies and tactics and 2) industry frames and arguments. Methods: Searches were conducted between April-July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Articles were included if they made reference to tobacco industry efforts to influence marketing regulations; supported claims with verifiable evidence; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990–2013. 48 articles met the review criteria. Narrative synthesis was used to combine the evidence. Results: 56% of articles focused on activity in North America, Europe or Australasia, the rest focusing on Asia (17%), South America, Africa or transnational activity. Six main political strategies and four main frames were identified. The tobacco industry frequently claims that the proposed policy will have negative unintended consequences, that there are legal barriers to regulation, and that the regulation is unnecessary because, for example, industry does not market to youth or adheres to a voluntary code. The industry primarily conveys these arguments through direct and indirect lobbying, the promotion of voluntary codes and alternative policies, and the formation of alliances with other industrial sectors. The majority of tactics and arguments were used in multiple jurisdictions. Conclusions: Tobacco industry political activity is far more diverse than suggested by existing taxonomies of corporate political activity. Tactics and arguments are repeated across jurisdictions, suggesting that the taxonomies of industry tactics and arguments developed in this paper are generalisable to multiple jurisdictions and can be used to predict industry activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is rising in middle income countries. Population based strategies to reduce specific CHD risk factors have an important role to play in reducing overall CHD mortality. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CHD events. This paper presents an economic evaluation of population based salt reduction policies in Tunisia, Syria, Palestine and Turkey. Methods and Findings: Three policies to reduce dietary salt intake were evaluated: a health promotion campaign, labelling of food packaging and mandatory reformulation of salt content in processed food. These were evaluated separately and in combination. Estimates of the effectiveness of salt reduction on blood pressure were based on a literature review. The reduction in mortality was estimated using the IMPACT CHD model specific to that country. Cumulative population health effects were quantified as life years gained (LYG) over a 10 year time frame. The costs of each policy were estimated using evidence from comparable policies and expert opinion including public sector costs and costs to the food industry. Health care costs associated with CHDs were estimated using standardized unit costs. The total cost of implementing each policy was compared against the current baseline (no policy). All costs were calculated using 2010 PPP exchange rates. In all four countries most policies were cost saving compared with the baseline. The combination of all three policies (reducing salt consumption by 30%) resulted in estimated cost savings of $235,000,000 and 6455 LYG in Tunisia; $39,000,000 and 31674 LYG in Syria; $6,000,000 and 2682 LYG in Palestine and $1,3000,000,000 and 378439 LYG in Turkey. Conclusion: Decreasing dietary salt intake will reduce coronary heart disease deaths in the four countries. A comprehensive strategy of health education and food industry actions to label and reduce salt content would save both money and lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents results from a multidisciplinary study of a negotiation process between farmers and wildlife authorities which led to an agricultural subsidy scheme to alleviate conflicts between agriculture and geese in Norway. The Svalbard-breeding population of pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus has increased considerably over the last decades and conflicts with farmers have escalated, especially at stopover sites in spring when geese feed on newly sprouted pasture grass. In Vesterålen, an important stopover site for geese in North Norway, farmers deployed scaring of geese at varying intensity dependent on the level of conflict during 1988–2012. We assessed the efficiency of a subsidy scheme established in 2006, in terms of its conflict mitigation, reflected in a near discontinuation of scaring activities. The presence of pink-footed geese was analysed in relation to scaring intensity, the total goose population size and the increasing occurrence of another goose species, the barnacle goose Branta leucopsis. Scaring significantly affected the number of geese staging in Vesterålen, both in absolute and relative terms (controlling for total population size). The geese responded immediately to an increased, and reduced, level of scaring. Despite the establishment of the subsidy scheme, the number of pink-footed geese has recently declined which is probably caused by the increasing number of barnacle geese. For the farmers, the subsidy scheme provides funding that reduces the economic costs caused by the geese. Sustaining a low level of conflict will require close monitoring, dialogue and adaptation of the subsidy scheme to cater for changes in goose population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The huge regional disparity in government health expenditures (GHE) is a major policy concern in China. This paper addresses whether provincial GHE converges in China from 1997 to 2009 using the economic convergence framework based on neoclassical economic growth theory. Our empirical investigation provides compelling evidence of long-term convergence in provincial GHE within China, but not in short-term. Policy implications of these empirical results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the USA, the relationship between the legal availability of guns and the firearm-related homicide rate has been debated. It has been argued that unrestricted gun availability promotes the occurrence of firearm-induced homicides. It has also been pointed out that gun possession can protect potential victims when attacked. This paper provides a first mathematical analysis of this tradeoff, with the goal to steer the debate towards arguing about assumptions, statistics, and scientific methods. The model is based on a set of clearly defined assumptions, which are supported by available statistical data, and is formulated axiomatically such that results do not depend on arbitrary mathematical expressions. According to this framework, two alternative scenarios can minimize the gun-related homicide rate: a ban of private firearms possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. Importantly, the model identifies the crucial parameters that determine which policy minimizes the death rate, and thus serves as a guide for the design of future epidemiological studies. The parameters that need to be measured include the fraction of offenders that illegally possess a gun, the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry it when attacked. Limited data available in the literature were used to demonstrate how the model can be parameterized, and this preliminary analysis suggests that a ban of private firearm possession, or possibly a partial reduction in gun availability, might lower the rate of firearm-induced homicides. This, however, should not be seen as a policy recommendation, due to the limited data available to inform and parameterize the model. However, the model clearly defines what needs to be measured, and provides a basis for a scientific discussion about assumptions and data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]