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The United States is now committed to using two relatively sophisticated approaches to measuring capital adequacy: Basel III and stress tests. This paper shows how stress testing could mitigate weaknesses in the way Basel III measures credit and interest rate risk, the way it measures bank capital, and the way it creates countercyclical capital buffers. However, this paper also emphasizes the extent to which stress tests add value will depend upon the exercise of supervisor discretion in the design of stress scenarios. Whether supervisors will use this discretion more effectively than they have used other tools in the past remains to be seen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper takes a skeptical look at a leading argument about what is causing the foreclosure crisis and what should be done to stop it. We use an economic model to focus on two key decisions: the borrower's choice to default on a mortgage and the lender's subsequent choice whether to renegotiate or modify the loan. The theoretical model and econometric analysis illustrate that unaffordable loans, defined as those with high mortgage payments relative to income at origination, are unlikely to be the main reason that borrowers decide to default. In addition, this paper provides theoretical results and empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that the efficiency of foreclosure for investors is a more plausible explanation for the low number of modifications to date than contract frictions related to securitization agreements between servicers and investors. While investors might be foreclosing when it would be socially efficient to modify, there is little evidence to suggest they are acting against their own interests when they do so. An important implication of our analysis is that policies designed to reduce foreclosures should focus on ameliorating the immediate effects of job loss and other adverse life events rather than modifying loans to make them more affordable on a long-term basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper rationalizes as the outcome of an optimal policy decision the pattern of reserve requirements and other macroeconomic variables in the aftermath of a bank run. The paper develops a general equilibrium model that departs from the standard small open economy (SOE) model in three dimensions: (i) capital mobility is not perfect, (ii) there exists a costly banking system, and (iii) there is an externality affecting individual banks' decisions. The results suggest that the path of reserve requirements would depend on the type of shock that the economy receives and the effect that this shock produces on the interest rate. Interestingly, the size of the risk premium will affect the reaction of the economy to the shock. It is also shown that the dynamic adjustment will be slightly different for permanent and temporary shocks, and it will also depend on the access that the economy has to foreign funds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper extends the model of Cogley and Sargent to incorporate stochastic volatility and then estimates it for post World War II U.S. data in order to shed light on the following questions. Have aggregate time series responded through time-invariant linear impulse response functions to possibly heteroskedastic shocks? Or is it more likely that the impulse responses to shocks themselves have evolved over time because of drifting coefficients or other nonlinearities? Evidence is presented that shock variances evolved systematically over time, and so did the autoregressive coefficients of VARS. The conclusion is that much of our earlier evidence for drifting coefficients survives after we take stochastic volatility into account. This paper accumulates evidence inside an atheoretical statistical model. The patterns of time variation used revolve around whether it was bad monetary policy or bad luck that made inflation-unemployment outcomes worse in the 1970's than before or after.

In a recent set of influential papers, researchers have argued that residential mortgage foreclosures reduce the sale prices of nearby properties. We revisit this issue using a more robust identification strategy combined with new data that contain information on the location of properties secured by seriously delinquent mortgages and information on the condition of foreclosed properties. We find that while properties in virtually all stages of distress have statistically significant, negative effects on nearby home values, the magnitudes are economically small, peak before the distressed properties complete the foreclosure process, and go to zero about a year after the bank sells the property to a new homeowner. The estimates are very sensitive to the condition of the distressed property, with a positive correlation existing between house price growth and foreclosed properties identified as being in "above average" condition. We argue that the most plausible explanation for these results is an externality resulting from reduced investment by owners of distressed property. Our analysis shows that policies that slow the transition from delinquency to foreclosure likely exacerbate the negative effect of mortgage distress on house prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the role of Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances in stabilizing their commercial bank members' residential mortgage lending activities. Our theoretical model shows that using mortgage-related membership criteria or requiring mortgage-related collateral does not ensure that FHLB advances will be put to use for stabilizing members' financing of housing. Using panel vector autoregression (VAR) techniques, we estimate recent dynamic responses of U.S. bank portfolios to FHLB advance shocks, bank lending shocks, and macroeconomic shocks. Our empirical findings suggest that FHLB advances are just as likely to fund other types of bank credit as to fund single-family mortgages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies a New Keynesian model in which monetary policy may switch between regimes. We derive sufficient conditions for indeterminacy that are easy to implement and we show that the necessary and sufficient condition for determinacy, provided by Davig and Leeper, is necessary but not sufficient. More importantly, we use a two-regime model to show that indeterminacy in a passive regime may spill over to an active regime no matter how active the latter regime is. As a result, a passive monetary policy is more damaging than has been previously thought. Our results imply that the propagation of shocks in an active regime, such as that of the Federal Reserve in the post-1982 period, may be substantially affected by the possibility of a return to a passive regime of the kind that was followed in the 1960s and 1970s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses matched employer-employee data for the state of Georgia to examine workers' earnings experience through the information technology (IT) sector's employment boom of the mid-1990s and its bust in the early 2000s. The results show that even after controlling for individual characteristics before the sector's boom, transitioning out of the IT sector to a non-IT industry generally resulted in a large wage penalty. However, IT service workers who transitioned to a non-IT industry still fared better than those who took a non-IT employment path. For IT manufacturing workers, there is no benefit to having worked in tech, likely because of the nontransferability of manufacturing experience to other industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of forecasting models. An MCS is a set of models that is constructed so that it will contain the "best" forecasting model, given a level of confidence. Thus, an MCS is analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS acknowledges the limitations of the data so that uninformative data yield an MCS with many models, whereas informative data yield an MCS with only a few models. We revisit the empirical application in Stock and Watson (1999) and apply the MCS procedure to their set of inflation forecasts. In the first pre-1984 subsample we obtain an MCS that contains only a few models, notably versions of the Solow-Gordon Phillips curve. On the other hand, the second post-1984 subsample contains little information and results in a large MCS. Yet, the random walk forecast is not contained in the MCS for either of the samples. This outcome shows that the random walk forecast is inferior to inflation forecasts based on Phillips curve-like relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies tests of calendar effects in equity returns. It is necessary to control for all possible calendar effects to avoid spurious results. The authors contribute to the calendar effects literature and its significance with a test for calendar-specific anomalies that conditions on the nuisance of possible calendar effects. Thus, their approach to test for calendar effects produces robust data-mining results. Unfortunately, attempts to control for a large number of possible calendar effects have the downside of diminishing the power of the test, making it more difficult to detect actual anomalies. The authors show that our test achieves good power properties because it exploits the correlation structure of (excess) returns specific to the calendar effect being studied. We implement the test with bootstrap methods and apply it to stock indices from Denmark, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Bootstrap p- values reveal that calendar effects are significant for returns in most of these equity markets, but end-of-the-year effects are predominant. It also appears that, beginning in the late 1980s, calendar effects have diminished except in small-cap stock indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. New Keynesian Phillips curves describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these curves under generalized methods of moments (GMM) and traces this syndrome to a lack of persistence in either exogenous variables or shocks. The authors employ analytic methods to understand the identification problem in several statistical environments: under strict exogeneity, in a vector autoregression, and in the canonical three-equation, New Keynesian model. Given U.S., U.K., and Canadian data, they revisit the empirical evidence and construct tests and confidence intervals based on exact and pivotal Anderson-Rubin statistics that are robust to weak identification. These tests find little evidence of forward-looking inflation dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue of normalization arises whenever two different value for a vector of unknown parameters imply the identical economic model. A normalization does not just imply for selecting which point, among equivalent ones, to call the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). It also governs the topography of the point that go into a small-sample confidence intervals that are dispoint, and very misleading characterizations of the true statistical uncertainly. This paper introduces the identification principle as a framework upon which normalization should be imposed, according to which the boundaries of the allowable parameter space should correspond to loci along which the model is locally unidentified. The authors illustrate these issues with example taken from mixture models, structural VARs, and cointegration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Until recently, the trend in world capital markets has been toward increasing “globalization” Recent events in Latin America and Asia have forced a rethinking of the desirability of unrestricted world capital flows. In this paper we ask whether simple restrictions on capital mobility can succeed in reducing the volatility of funds flows, whether such restrictions are consistent with the long-term development of the countries that might impose them, whether such restrictions are beneficial for poorer countries while harming wealthier countries, and whether harriers to capital movements should he reduced in magnitude as the development process proceeds. We find first that appropriately selected barriers to capital movements can be used by a poorer country to eliminate the short-term volatility of capital flows and other economic volatility as well. Second, we find that these harriers are consistent with increased rather than reduced levels of economic development in both the short and long run. Third, we show that it is empirically plausible that such barriers will be reduced over time as economies develop. Fourth, we show that, in the long run, all countries can benefit from the presence of barriers to capital mobility. And, fifth, we show that barriers to capital mobility can increase the magnitude of net capital flows in a steady state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan is in the midst of a protracted spell of depressed economic activity. Japan's economic stagnation has occurred against a background of rising earnings risk. Occupational stability is falling as routine occupations disappear and implicit lifetime employment guarantees are gradually disappearing. At the same time, earnings in some high-skilled occupations have continued to grow. The resulting polarization in earnings has also been accompanied by an increase in wealth inequality. We develop a framework that relates these observations. In our model, an increase in uninsured earnings risk depresses output and increases wealth inequality. We then analyze the efficacy of alternative fiscal measures in terms of their ability to increase economic activity, reduce wealth inequality, and improve welfare. We find that a lower tax rate on capital achieves all of these objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experiences reveal that the monitoring costs of the foreclosure crisis may be nontrivial, and smaller governments may have more success at addressing potential negative externalities. One highly localized form of government is a homeowners association (HOA). HOAs could be well-suited for triaging foreclosures, as they may detect delinquencies and looming defaults through direct observation or missed dues. On the other hand, the reliance on dues may leave HOAs particularly vulnerable to members' foreclosure. We examine how property prices respond to homeowner distress and foreclosure within HOA communities in Florida. We combine data sets of HOAs, sales and aggregate loan delinquency, and foreclosures from 2000 through 2008. We find properties in HOAs are relatively less affected by more distressed neighbor homes compared with non-HOA properties, but only when considering less severe delinquency rates. We also find that negative price effects from higher delinquency exposure rates are ameliorated for properties in larger and newer HOAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using new household-level data, we quantitatively assess the roles that job loss, negative equity, and wealth (including unsecured debt, liquid assets, and illiquid assets) play in default decisions. In sharp contrast to prior studies that proxy for individual unemployment status using regional unemployment rates, we find that individual unemployment is the strongest predictor of default. We find that individual unemployment increases the probability of default by 5-13 percentage points, ceteris paribus, compared with the sample average default rate of 3.9 percent. We also find that only 13.9 percent of defaulters have both negative equity and enough liquid or illiquid assets to make one month's mortgage payment. This finding suggests that "ruthless" or "strategic" default during the 2007-09 recession was relatively rare and that policies designed to promote employment, such as payroll tax cuts, are most likely to stem defaults in the long run rather than policies that temporarily modify mortgages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]