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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to discuss more efficient mechanisms of regulation in the financial system.Design/methodology/approach The authors developed a theoretical two-period model of financial flows (FFs) that considers households, banks, and a social planner.Findings It is important to highlight that different from other studies that do not distinguish between financial crisis and financial instability, the authors assume financial instability does not mean crisis, but represents a deviation in the behavior of the aggregate financial intermediation and in the financial operations of each bank from the equilibrium.Practical implications The practical implication of the model is the proposition of an efficient policy for financial stability based on forward-looking financial regulations.Social implications An important result is that bank failures occur when banks do not maintain sufficient resources to support the liquidity constraint from the interbank market. Another result is that the central bank reacts, via exchange of reserves with the market, to financial instability. This behavior on the part of the central bank is inefficient because the banks will assume that in the case of failure they will be “saved;” thus it creates an adverse incentive (moral hazard) that can amplify the risk over the entire financial system.Originality/value The originality of the model is the proposition of an efficient policy for financial stability based on a forward-looking financial regulation. In this strategy the regulator acts in advance (ex ante) to minimize the mismatch of FFs in relation to the flow balance. This manner of acting is a counterpoint to the financial regulation based on capital requirement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a lot of interest since the global financial crisis in policies allowing emerging market economies to smooth the effects of the global financial cycle. Although the literature has focused mostly on capital controls emerging market governments have relied mostly on international reserves management. This paper discusses the role of reserves in capital flow management based on a simple welfare-based model of capital flows with international banking frictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the traditional benchmarks in international macroeconomics is that a country should maintain reserves that can cover at least 12 weeks of imports. The notion of reserve adequacy, however, is not static and is intimately associated with the occurrence of financial crises as well as exogenous shocks, with many observers using the reduction in reserves below this benchmark as a sign of fragility. This article provides a benefit-cost type approach to evaluating reserve adequacy. The benefits of holding reserves are evaluated using a dynamic random effects probit model of financial crises while the cost of reserve holdings (output loss due to an over-investment in reserves) is obtained from a panel growth equation. Using the methodology outlined above, the study finds that in small states, the optimal holding of foreign exchange reserves is approximately 25 weeks of imports, approximately 13 weeks higher than the international rule-of-thumb. This estimate of optimal reserve holdings is interrelated with the economic characteristics of the country, particularly its fiscal stance. Indeed, this article finds that countries with a prudent public expenditure management framework in place are able to hold a smaller stock of reserves without necessarily impacting the expected growth for the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global game framework of bank runs is used to analyse a bank's choice of its reserve level and short-term interest rate. Higher level of reserves and a lower short-term interest rate would decrease the probability of bank runs. When the bank's reserve policy is transparent, it will hold excess reserves to discourage withdrawals by patient depositors. This inefficiency of excess reserves increases with the proportion of impatient depositors. When the bank has private information about its reserve level, it will follow a more risky strategy of choosing lower reserves and higher early return than what maximizes depositor welfare and increases the probability of bank runs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid growth in international reserves accumulation in many emerging Asian economies has challenged economists with a puzzle and has revitalised the reserves adequacy literature recently. Recent works mostly focus on a large group of countries in trying to explain such behaviour. However, this paper aims to assess reserves adequacy for Thailand in particular. We see that taking into account the catastrophic impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the rapid development and worldwide integration of financial systems, the current high level of Thailand's reserves seems reasonable subject to some modifications in the traditional rules and theoretical approaches used in this paper to justify the reserves level in Thailand over the past decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the effects of firms' cash positions in moderating the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on corporate performance. We find that corporate performance significantly declines following the onset of the crisis. Firms with low cash reserves had the largest declines in performance following the onset of the financial crisis. However, we do not find any differences in performance decline following the onset of the crisis, when we compare financially constrained firms to financially unconstrained firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We model a stylized banking system where banks are characterized by the amount of capital, cash reserves and their exposure to the interbank loan market as borrowers as well as lenders. A network of interbank lending is established that is used as a transmission mechanism for the failure of banks through the system. We trigger a potential banking crisis by exogenously failing a bank and investigate the spread of this failure within the banking system. We find the obvious result that the size of the bank initially failing is the dominant factor whether contagion occurs, but for the extent of its spread the characteristics of the network of interbank loans are most important. These results have implications for the regulation of banking systems that are briefly discussed, most notably that a reliance on balance sheet regulations is not sufficient but must be supplemented by considerations for the structure of financial linkages between banks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Traditional models have encountered problems in explaining the accumulation of international reserves, particularly in Asia, in the period since the late 1990s. One suggestion has been that countries have sought to self-insure against future crises, either because of a perceived increase in the cost of crises or because of the perceived conditionality costs of using IMF credits. This paper offers an empirical investigation of these ideas, disaggregating across regions and across IMF facilities. We find that IMF programs have had a significant positive effect on subsequent reserve accumulation, allowing for other determinants, and that this effect endures over time. We also find that the effect differs between Latin America and Asia, and that it is not simply a phenomenon that is associated with the Asian crisis of 1997/98. The paper goes on to discuss the implications for the design of policy and for the reform of the IMF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global financial system appears to be heading for a new crisis, triggered in large part by growing and unsustainable levels of global debt. Reserve currencies are an essential element of the world's current financial infrastructure, and are widely recognized for their role in facilitating international transactions. History has taught us that such currencies are also quite transient, being subject to adjustments and changes as economic conditions evolve over time. The United States dollar now serves as the de facto world's reserve currency. However, this is unlikely to continue unchallenged and unchanged into the future. The G20 and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) appear to be now considering a reserve currency, such as the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), which is obtained through participation of many currencies. The major question is not what will become the new global reserve currency, but how this new currency will be managed. One of the critical issues associated with this currency management effort is that of determining the information systems architecture that will be required, including whether an associated Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) would be helpful in managing this new global currency. An extremely important element in this currency determination activity is a strong governance protocol that all the governments and sovereigns will accept and comply with. Otherwise any new global reserve currency, regardless of whether it is associated with a major information systems architecture foundation, will likely be unsustainable. In this paper, we examine these issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative Easing consists of asset purchases by the central bank from both banks and non-banks with the help of reserve creation. While the operation could have a potential danger of inflationary pressure due to the money multiplier (banks create broad money from the reserves), the leverage is reduced due to the capital constraints of the banking sector. In this paper we explain how these capital constraints can be effective, hence curbing the inflationary impact of the Quantitative Easing measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following an analysis of the forces behind the so-called "global capital flows paradox" observed in the era of advancing financial globalization, this paper sets out to investigate the opportunity costs of self-insurance through precautionary reserve holdings. We reject the idea of reserves as low-cost protection against the vagaries of global finance. And we also deny that arrangements giving rise to their rapid accumulation may be sustainable in the first place. Alternative policy options open to developing countries are explored, designed to limit both the risks of financial globalization and costs of insurance-type responses. We propose comprehensive capital account management as an alternative to full capital account liberalization. The aims of a permanent regulatory regime of capital controls, both with respect to the aggregate size and the composition of capital flows, are twofold. The first aim is to maintain sufficient macro policy space. The second aim is to assure a good micro fit of external expertise incorporated in FDI with a country's development strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses binary classification trees (BCTs) to predict capital account crises. BCTs successively compare candidate variables and thresholds to split the data into two subsamples, allowing for a large number of indicators to be considered and complex interactions to emerge in a way that standard regressions cannot easily replicate. We identify a robust leading indicator role for three variables (international reserves, current account balance, and short-term external debt) as well as a reserve cover measure that combines them. External indebtedness and domestic GDP growth forecasts are also important predictors of vulnerability. Out of sample, we were able to capture some of the main emerging market crises with relatively few false alarms but the overall out-of-sample performance of our forecasts was mixed. Global cyclical variables help explain vulnerability to crises but they are difficult to predict and, therefore, are of limited use for forecasting purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between financing constraints and investment–cash flow sensitivities by focusing on cash holdings of firms as the main classification variable to separate firms into financially constrained and unconstrained categories. The idea is that high cash reserves increase the ability of firms to undertake profitable investment opportunities. Our classification is based on an optimal cash model, which helps us identify the firms that deviate significantly from their target cash ratio. We conduct the analysis for an emerging market, before and during a financial crisis to test the hypothesis that the hedging role of cash is more critical in states of the world characterized by high asymmetric information and excessive costs of external finance. The results are in line with our expectations and show that constrained firms exhibit greater investment–cash flow sensitivities than unconstrained firms. Also, there is strong evidence that cash stands as an effective device for firms, mainly during the crisis period. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The East Asian financial crisis was the impetus for many financial cooperation initiatives within the region. This paper reviews progress in a number of areas, particularly the Chiang Mai Initiative, which aims to enhance a country's access to foreign reserves in times of stress via a series of swap arrangements in the region, and the development of the Asian Bond Market in order to increase long-term financing for deficit countries so they will not have to rely mainly on short-term foreign borrowing, as was the case prior to the crisis. A number of recommendations are made, including the setting up of a regional organization to coordinate a multilateral version of the Chiang Mai Initiative and further development of the regional currency and bond markets to increase the private sector's access to long-term financing. Given the region's huge holding of foreign reserves, the paper also recommends a much more proactive approach in managing these reserves in order to influence global financial developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The determination of international reserve balance for emerging economies is part of the efforts to strengthen the immunity of these economies to crises. However, there is still evidence on crises even for the countries with large foreign reserves. It has usually been experienced that the countries with greatest need for reserves economize more than others on their holdings since they might underestimate the cost of crisis. In this study, the official international reserves of Turkey are tested against optimality and adequacy. During 1988–2002, the actual reserves fell short of both the optimal and the adequate levels. They are only optimal when the expected cumulative contraction is about 5.2% of real GDP under crisis. However, early evidence from emerging economies and Turkey show that crises hit more heavily. Hence, it is found that the current financial structure in Turkey such as the absence of capital controls and a highly dollarized banking system necessitates more foreign reserves for preventing any future economic and/or financial shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing countries’ reserves have increased dramatically in recent years—growing by over 60% since the Asian financial crisis. This paper explores the self-insurance motivation behind this. As a first step, it revisits the literature on international reserve demand. This paper then examines the reserve-holding trends in a sample of 65 developing countries. It seeks to answer the following: Have reserves increased across the board or have these been concentrated in a few countries? If so, does it represent a break in previous policy? At what cost? This paper concludes by briefly examining some policy implications and avenues for future research. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper has a number of purposes. First, it revisits the older theory of reserve adequacy and optimality to see whether this can still be used and perhaps strengthened in ways that would inform the current debate. Second, it explores the connection between reserve adequacy and currency crisis in the light of recent experience and empirical research. Third, it critically investigates alternative rule-of-thumb measures of reserve adequacy. Fourth, and drawing on the foregoing analysis, it examines the extent to which crisis countries should seek to replenish and build up their international reserves in the post-crisis period. Additional owned reserves represent a guaranteed and unconditional source of liquidity; is this what is needed? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises. One view blames soft pegs for these crises. Adherents of this view suggest that countries move to corner solutions—hard pegs or floating exchange rates. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates to assess whether there is evidence that country practice is moving toward corner solutions. We focus on whether countries that claim they are floating are indeed doing so. We find that countries that say they allow their exchange rate to float mostly do not—there seems to be an epidemic case of "fear of floating." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the history of the Royal Institute of Public Administration in Australia. It states that the Institute has a distinguished history that lasted for 70 years until it went into administrative receivership on July 15, 1992. The author states that there were major changes in the nature of the Institute that occurred between 1976 to 1989. The Institute experienced mixed financial fortunes, such as the increase in its reserves but was followed by bad trading that resulted to budget deficit. The author mentions how the Institute was troubled in April 1990 to August 1991 and how it undergoes a major restructuring in the early part of 1992.

Stabilization programs in open economies typically consist of two stages. In the first stage the rate of currency devaluation is reduced, but the fiscal adjustment does not eliminate the fiscal deficit that causes growth of debt and loss of reserves, making a future policy change necessary. Only later, at a second stage, is this followed by either an abandonment of exchange rate management or by a sufficiently large cut in the fiscal deficit. We study how different second-stage policy changes affect economic dynamics during the first stage. These changes include tax increases, budget cuts on traded and nontraded goods, and increases in the growth rate of money. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on the statement by Mohamed Lakssassi, governor of Banque d'Algérie, that the exchange reserves of Algeria increased by $13 billion in the first quarter of 2008. It states that the country's exports of goods and services reached $21 billion while imports of goods increased by 34% including food products. Its foreign debt had reached $4.8 billion at the end of 2007, however, Lakssassi stated that it had ensured stability of the economy and limit external financial crisis.