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A new study has found that a comprehensive risk prediction model, which takes into account patient age, diabetes, colonoscopy indications, and polyp findings, can more accurately predict colorectal cancer (CRC) risk than a model based solely on polyp findings. The study randomly assigned 95,001 patients who underwent colonoscopy with polypectomy into two cohorts and compared the performance of the polyp findings-only method against the comprehensive model in predicting CRC. The comprehensive model demonstrated better predictive performance in both cohorts, indicating its potential to improve post-colonoscopy risk stratification. However, external validation of the model's performance is needed in different practice settings. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the use of data to improve college student retention. Such a system uses a computer algorithm and has been implemented at Purdue University to alert students if they are performing well in their class. The algorithm can allegedly predict which students will drop out and alert school staff of the situation. A similar system at the State University of New York at Buffalo looks at seven variables to assess students. The flaws in the prediction models include overlooking people who are at-risk and sometimes students can remedy their own situations.

The article discusses the study by Lindsay Tetreault and colleagues on their prediction model for cervical spondylotic myelopathy which they found accurate in predicting operative outcomes.

The article reports that life insurance companies are gathering and analyzing data about consumers gleaned from the Internet in an effort to predict a person's longevity and susceptibility to disease. Insurance company Aviva PLC examined data from some 60,000 insurance applicants to assess their vulnerability to high blood pressure, depression, and other maladies.

The article discusses the challenge of predicting the number of hurricanes months which require forecasters to assess critical weather patterns, focusing on the seasonal hurricane forecasts released by the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the models used.

The article reports that the U.S. Department of Energy has forecasted that the average U.S. home will face a 10 percent increase in winter heating bills for the 2007-2008 heating season. Homes with oil heat, predominantly in the Northeast, are facing an expected increase of 22 percent. The predictions are based on rising petroleum prices as well as a long-term weather forecast which expects a cold winter.

The article discusses J. Richard Gott III and his use of the Copernican Principle to predict future events. His mathematical probability of future events uses one criteria, past longevity, to predict future outcomes. The author uses the political terms of office of various world politicians to explain the principle.

The article looks at Wall Street strategist and adjunct professor at Columbia Business School Michael J. Mauboussin and his annual economics experiment associated with predictions of Academy Awards winners. The purpose of his experiment is to demonstrate the power of prediction markets, in which groups of people bet or guess on something, with the results combined into a consensus. Research has found that prediction markets are surprisingly accurate.

The article author discusses the power of big-data and prediction algorithms in making accurate predictions of which tweets will be retweeted often, with consideration on their boundaries and limitations relating to correlation, causality problem, and the paradox of predicting what is interesting.

Sports news briefs are presented December 7, 2013 which note England's soccer team Three Lions' placement in the 2014 World Cup, the ranking of various countries' World Cup teams since 1998, and a mathematical model that predicts the outcome of college football games.

The article focuses on the effect of Hurricane Sandy in Long Island, New York. It mentions that the Long Island Power Authority repeatedly failed to plan for the extreme weather. Moreover, former Federal Emergency Management Agency official Frank P. Petrone said that resources are late and the authority did not utilize the management of the resources effectively.

The article reports on the oil production forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA). It says that the U.S. oil production will surpass the oil production of Saudi Arabia from 2013 to 2017. It states that it serves a reminder that North American oil and gas industry is coming back after. Moreover, the forecast has brought tension between Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretary General Abdallah Salem el-Badri and IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven.

A correction to the article about a study on the pH level of the ocean water in Tatoosh Island, Washington is presented.

Astronomers have long theorized that the Moon was formed when an object the size of Mars slammed into Earth, sending a huge mass of rock into orbit around it. ''According to the prevailing model prediction, approximately half of the Moon-forming material should come from the Mars-size impactor,'' said Junjun Zhang, an isotope geochemist at the University of Chicago and the study's first author. But samples of isotopic titanium from the Moon and from Earth now suggest that material from Earth is predominant on the Moon, researchers report in the journal Nature Geoscience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports that in October 2011, the Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services began using predictive modeling to combat fraud through false Medicare claims, by detecting suspicious billing patterns and easing the burden on tax payers.

The article discusses the ability of a risk model developed from the Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness (ESCAPE) trial to predict mortality risk in patients with advanced heart failure (HF) with reference to a study by C. O'Connor published in the 2010 issue of the "Journal of American College Cardiology."

The article focuses on a market-forecasting device known as the Super Bowl Predictor. The indicator predicts that the stock market will rise in the year when an original National Football League (NFL) team wins the big game. On the other hand, the indicator predicts the stock market will fall when the winner is a team that joined the NFL because of the league's merger with the American Football League in 1970. According to the article, the indicator predicted the direction of the stock market correctly after 33 of the 42 Super Bowls.

The article discusses a study by Adam W. Beck and researchers that examined correlations between accumulating risk factors and the potential one-year survival following endovascular abdominal aortic aneursym repair (EVAR) or open aneursym repair which was presented at the 2008 Vascular Annual Meeting. Results showed that thirty-day mortality as 0.5% in the endovascular group, while the open-repair group has a 2.3% mortality rate. It also found that the predictive risk model correlated well with the observed mortality rates.

The article discusses a study that examined the use of carotid artery stenting in 2001-2005 which was presented at the 2008 Vascular Annual Meeting. Results showed that there has been an increase in the use of carotid stenting in spite of its higher mortality and stroke rates in both asymptomatic and symptomatic patients. According to vascular surgeon John C. Wang of Temple University Hospital, carotid endarteractomy is the gold standard for carotid occlusive disease treatment.

The article reports that before the 2006 Major League Baseball (MLB) playoffs began, the New Jersey Institute of Technology issued a news release highlighting the work of Bruce G. Bukiet, an associate professor of mathematical sciences who devised a mathematical model to predict the winners of the postseason's first round. However, he predicted that the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Minnesota Twins, the New York Yankees, and the San Diego Padres would advance in the playoffs, but all four were eliminated. His other 2006 MLB series predictions are presented along with a response from Bukiet.

Reports on the forecasters' models for the 2004 presidential elections in the U.S. Basis of the equation used by forecasters to predict the outcome of the election; Forecast of political scientists Christopher Wlezien and Robert S. Erikson; Information on the model offered by Brad Lockerbie, an associate professor of political science at the University of Georgia in Athens.

Presents the forecast weather report in 1,500 cities of the United States of America. Tame for high tides; Recreational forecast; Metropolitan almanac.

Reports on celebrity wedding wagers. Odds on various celebrities' weddings and divorces; History of celebrity wedding wagers; Method of odds calculation.

Offers insight into how the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will vote for the best motion pictures of 2003. Discussion of a correlation between ticket sales and Oscar winners; Results of the author's analysis of Oscar winners over the past 20 years and corresponding box-office receipts; Statistics related to previous Best Actor and Best Actress winners relative to box-office ranking; Factors to be considered when attempting to predict winners, including sentimental favorites.