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The demographic structure is an important factor influencing the development of the services industry. As the country with the world's most serious aging problem, China's service industry structure is likely to undergo profound changes in response to the rapid demographic transition. Therefore, this paper examines the effect of population aging on the development of the service industry in the context of China's accelerating population aging. The study found that: (1) Population aging has a significant "inverted U" effect on the development of the services industry. (2) The impact of population aging on the development of the service industry has obvious regional and industry heterogeneity. The study of regional heterogeneity found that population aging in economically developed regions has a more obvious effect on the development of the service industry than in economically less developed regions. Industry heterogeneity studies found that population aging has an obvious promotional effect on the development of medical and other rigid demand industries, while the effect on other non-rigid demand industries is not significant. (3) The threshold effect test found that when the degree of population aging exceeds the threshold, the stimulating effect of population aging on the development of the services industry is no longer significant. The research in this paper provides useful insights into the likely response to changes in the industrial structure of the services industry, and offers some implications for countries with similar demographic profiles to China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population Studies advances research on fertility, mortality, family, migration, methods, policy, and beyond, yet it lacks a recent, rigorous review. We examine all papers published between 1947 and 2020 (N = 1,901) and their authors, using natural language processing, social network analysis, and mixed methods that combine unsupervised machine learning with qualitative coding. After providing a brief history, we map the evolution in authorship and papers towards shorter, multi-authored papers, also finding that females comprise 33.5 per cent of authorship across the period under study, with varied sex ratios across topics. Most papers examine fertility, mortality, and family, studying groups and change, but topics vary over time. Children are rarely studied, and research on women focuses on family planning, fertility decline, and unions, whereas key domains for research on men are migration, historical demography (war, famine), and employment. Research on Africa and Asia focuses on family planning, with work on fertility decline concentrated on North America and Europe, consistent with theories of demographic transition. Our resulting discussion identifies future directions for demographic research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that population age structure plays a significant role alongside institutional, technological, political, and cultural factors when it comes to explaining shifts in urban, regional and national economic development. The paper demonstrates how demographic transitions lead to changes in population age structure which in turn correlate with global shifts in economic development from 1950 onwards. It then analyzes the role of population age structure at the sub-national level by reviewing some prominent cases of regional and urban shifts in Western Europe and North America. Population size, population density and migration have always been an integrated part of economic geography, and the consequences of ageing in national and regional economies are increasingly being studied. The specific role of population age structure as a driver of economic development has, however, so far largely been ignored in the field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is a program for the 2023 Economic History Association meetings, which acknowledges the individuals and organizations involved in the event's success. It also provides information about the upcoming 2024 meeting, which will focus on the theme of "Globalization: Perspectives from the Past." The document includes a list of research papers that will be presented in various sessions, covering a wide range of topics such as trade costs, institutions and labor markets, state building and reform, race in the U.S., science and knowledge diffusion, and more. These papers offer valuable insights into different aspects of history and social movements, making them relevant for library patrons conducting research on these specific topics. [Extracted from the article]

In this issue, Ronald (Ron) Skeldon's rich and thoughtful review outlines the developments in migration research within demography and population studies. In his contribution to the 50th anniversary issue of I Population Studies i , John Hobcraft suggested that demographers spend too little time trying to explain the phenomena they measure and describe (Hobcraft [5]). The authors of the papers in this special issue are certainly more diverse in terms of their disciplinary background, career stage, ethnicity, and sex than those of the 1996 special issue. He discusses the development of a separate field of migration studies in recent decades and identifies the ways in which greater communication between scholars working in migration studies and population scientists who study migration would be beneficial. [Extracted from the article]

Purpose: Population ageing is a demographic transition and burdens every country's health sector. A lack of social security combined with low government health-sector spending has made health-care utilisation difficult among elderly in many developing countries like India. This makes population ageing a global phenomenon for policymakers, researchers and stakeholders to discuss and debate in 21st century. The purpose of this paper is to examine the behavioural determinants of health-care utilisation among elderly population in Punjab. Design/methodology/approach: This study examines health-care utilisation among the elderly population in Punjab. A structured questionnaire was used to collect the data in the state of Punjab, with a multi-stage stratified random sample of 385 respondents. Logit regression was used to analyse the association between several behavioural factors like age, gender, place of residence, source of livelihood, education and frequency of visits with health-care utilisation among elderly aged 60 and above. Findings: This study revealed that gender, age, place of residence, source of livelihood, education and frequency of visits were significant determinants of health-care utilisation among elderly population. Originality/value: This study directs the need to improve health-care utilisation in a country, reducing inequalities that exist among the elderly population with respect to socio-economic and demographic differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides quantitative modelling of the effect of three longer-term global transitions: the global demographic transition involving a marked reduction in population growth; a long-term slowdown in productivity growth which may continue, or may conceivably be reversed; and the disruption in the global economy due to increasing climate shocks and the implementation of climate policies that will be needed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. We study the global investment needs to which these transitions will lead. We demonstrate that these investment needs will be both asymmetric across countries and over time. This asymmetry will lead to potentially large changes in trade flows and significant financial capital flows across national borders, and also to substantial real exchange changes and interest rate movements. The resulting large movements in international capital flows will have significant implications for the global financial system, which we demonstrate at the country and regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments on a previous article related to fertility crisis in modern societies that appeared in the March 2004 issue of the journal Population Studies. Social researchers Francesco Billari, Tomas Frejka, John Hobcraft, Miloslav Macura and Dirk J. van de Kaa broadly endorse authors' paper, while adding valuable supplementary and complementary material. Authors concur with most of the regional and technical elaborations they propose. However, authors take issue with some of the points raised by van de Kaa and Hobcraft, most of which refer to authors' article. Authors assume that no one regards the Western demographic transition over the last century or two as being independent of the Industrial Revolution, as being something that would have happened if incomes had stayed at eighteenth-century levels. If the world passes, in little more than two centuries, from being one of high fertility with a potential for rapid growth as mortality falls, to one where global population is declining then researchers who do not seek overarching explanations may be little heeded.

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Summary: Population growth has always played a key role in human mobility, even before the age of farming and husbandry. This paper explores population dynamics among early Holocene (∼9500–1700 cal BCE) hunter‐fisher‐gatherers in Southern Norway, focusing in particular on the Mesolithic‐Neolithic transition (4000/3900 cal BCE). Radiocarbon dates are calibrated and turned into summed probability distributions (SPDs). A heuristic linear method is used to calculate annual growth rates from the SPDs. Observed fluctuations in the SPDs are tested for significance by applying a Monte Carlo‐based simulation method. The paper finds evidence of a steady growth rate from the Boreal period until a sudden population trough at ∼4330–4300 cal BCE. The trough coincides with indications from the archaeological record of a dispersal of hunter‐fisher‐gatherers from Southern Scandinavia to Norway. The dispersal was likely an effect of lowered habitat suitability and social stress caused by population pressure among Southern Scandinavian hunter‐fisher‐gatherers. In Southern Norway, the proxy data show that the trough enabled a subsequent 'boom' in population and the emergence of regional technological innovations that define the Mesolithic‐Neolithic transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND Kinship groups can have considerable importance (e.g., generational support, inheritance, and information for key life events). During demographic transitions, kinship networks are reshaped by changes in mortality and fertility rates. OBJECTIVE This paper analyzes consanguineous and female kin and explores the effect on the size and structure of living kin before and after a demographic transition. We compute the kinship network of a female individual with average demographic traits (here called the Focal) at all ages but focus on only demographically dense ages (age 15 to 39). METHODS The analysis uses a time-invariant model (Caswell 2019) to calculate the expected number of living kin using fertility and mortality rates. We use three examples (China, India, and Japan) with fertility and mortality from World Population Prospect 2019, based on empirical data. CONCLUSIONS We highlight two key results. First, at a demographically dense age of the Focal, the maximum expected number of living aunts, sisters, or daughters is approximately the net reproductive rate R0 (linear), while the number of living cousins is approximately R0² (quadratic). Second, such effects on kinship size depend on the magnitude of fertility change and on the age-pattern of changes in mortality. And the effects of fertility and mortality on the number of kin are not additive. CONTRIBUTION This paper shows a simple relationship between demographic transition and kinship size, which makes it possible to estimate kinship size based on the net reproductive rate. The quadratic relationship between the number of certain kin (e.g., cousins, nieces) and the net reproductive rate is informative but not a priori obvious. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh is passing through the dividend phase of demographic transition, with 45 million (over a quarter of the total population) in the age group of 15-29 years and 52.8 million (about a third) in the 15-36 age group. Young scientists belong to the upper segments of the later age group (some may be somewhat older than 36), who will in the fullness of time, take up leadership positions in their respective fields. Whatever be the field of human endeavour, the capability of the protagonists, is certainly a pivotal key to success. Indeed, human capability depends on education, skill training and health services. The better the availability of these services, the better is expected to be the ability acquired by the people concerned. One of these key services, health, is included in the theme of this conference. This paper has proposed that a universal health coverage (UHC) system be developed in Bangladesh so that people from all walks of life can access at least primary health services. The UHC can be developed centering around the 14,000 or so Community Clinics in place all around rural Bangladesh. Bangladesh is pursuing the goal of sustainable development within the UN adopted 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development framework. This agenda is anchored on three pillars-economic, social and environmental. Sustainable development can be succinctly defined as socially acceptable, environmentally sound economic growth. Also, a basic tenet characterising sustainable development is that nobody can be left behind, i.e., everybody has to be included. The theme of this conference consist of the environmental pillar of sustainable development. In fact, the environment is the ultimate resource base of all development. Climate change, a major sub-set of environmental issues, is fast deteriorating and becoming an existential threat to humanity. This paper has discussed what has been happening in relation to climate change and what is being done to combat the menace globally and in Bangladesh. The efforts of Bangladesh in policy, programming, funding, and action in the context of responding to the increasingly adverse impacts on the country caused by the worsening climate change have been reviewed. Also, since this problem is global and cannot be adequately combatted by any one country, much less by a resource-poor country like Bangladesh, what role the international community is playing in this regard has been examined. The final section relates the lessons from the above discussions and reviews the future roles that young scientists need to play. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic transition has already become a major issue in the recent decades. Lower fertility rate and higher expected life length result in population aging. Most developed countries face social problems due to demographic transitions, especially in the economic and financial field. To take a closer look at this phenomenon, this paper screened 99 stocks provided by Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) to explore the impact of population aging on the stock market in Taiwan. Population aging indirectly takes up a larger portion of elder investors in the stock market, compared to the past. This paper employed risk and return variables to analyze the investors' behaviors in Taiwan stock market. We divided our samples into whole industry, financial industry, technology industry, and traditional industry groups to find the impact of investors aging among different industries. The results showed that there is no significant evidence to prove that the elder investors pursue lower risk stocks in Taiwan stock market, which is inconsistent with the results of the past research. On the other hand, the findings from the whole industry, technology industry, and traditional industry groups are different from the past research results, showing that Taiwan's elderly investors prefer stocks with higher return in those industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper deals with the demographic development of the northernmost municipality in Montenegro, with a special emphasis on migration trends, which have intensified since the second half of the last century. The municipality of Pljevlja is specific in this regard because it had the highest growth in emigration since the beginning of the 21st century in Montenegro, regardless of the fact that it has natural potentials, which, unfortunately, have not been adequately used, so the municipality is still classified as underdeveloped. The consequence of the weak economic development of the municipality is the continuous decline in the number of inhabitants, namely, Pljevlja's share in the total population of Montenegro decreased from 9.7% in 1961 to 4.2% in 2021. In the paper, we will look at the ecological transitions and demographic transformations of the municipality. By analyzing the demographic parameters, we will point out the consequences of migration, which are directly reflected in the further demographic development of the municipality. Analysis of the overall movement of the population (natural movement and migration), the age-gender structure of the municipality's population and rural population size will prove the set hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizenship and residency laws in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries developed during a similar time period, with similar influences, and as a result had common characteristics. In recent years, this has begun to change, with new pathways to permanent residency and citizenship developing in the region. This paper takes a comparative case study approach to analyzing the policy changes in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and then explores the implications thereof. Broadening the pathways for permanent residency and citizenship offers opportunities (e.g., reversing financial outflows, increasing domestic investment and savings, attracting foreign direct investment and skilled talent) while it also presents risks (e.g., contesting traditional forms of belonging and entitlement, reducing social cohesion, and creating new forms of inequalities). While new pathways have indeed emerged, these pathways are designed for specific types of people, defined by the criteria or requirements of them. The unique policies of the three countries imply unique directions for the economies, demographic transitions, and socio-political cultures of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a significant dearth of knowledge regarding changes in intra-metropolitan local labor markets in former socialist countries, which encompass extensive parts of Eurasia and where industrialization and urbanization were centrally controlled by the state. This paper aims to contribute to the existing body of research by (a) illuminating and explaining changes in the spatial structure of urban regions in Poland during the transition from 'extensive' to 'intensive' socialist urban development (1973-1983), and (b) investigating changes in commuting patterns and their socio-demographic composition during the transition to 'mature' socialism. We selected four major city-regions for analysis: gdański, katowicki, łódzki, and warszawski. These regions were carefully chosen to represent different types of polycentric development and diverse economic profiles. The main findings of our paper are as follows: (a) despite the substantial population growth and the unprecedented rate of new housing development in the four city-regions, the overall impact of the socialist transition to intensive urbanization on their spatial structure was relatively minor, (b) the intensification of urbanization process in Poland contributed to the reduction in commute distance for all socioeconomic and demographic groups of workers. • The impact of the socialist transition to intensive urbanization on the spatial structure of urban regions was relatively minor. • Intensification of the urbanization process in Poland in the 1970s had a significant impact on commuting patterns. • Irrespective of the impact of central planning on urbanization, there were significant differences between the study regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Depopulation is caused by low fertility rates and out-migration, and it applies to countries, regions and smaller areas. Rural depopulation is defined as a sharp population decline that falls well below an adequate population size and indicates that an area has lost its demographic reproductive capacity. This paper discusses the socioeconomic and territorial aspects of rural depopulation, attempting to do justice to the spatial dimensions of the phenomenon. Greece exhibits all the symptoms of demographic transition, leading to labour shortages, declining economic productivity, and increasing demands on the health and welfare system. The study on rural depopulation in Greece focuses on the changes and dynamics observed at the municipal and regional levels. A typology has been developed to identify rural communities in Greece. The main source of demographic data for our study is the Greek censuses (1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021). Demographic and socioeconomic trends in Greece are interlinked and show different regional and local dynamics. Rural depopulation is closely related to the study of (international and internal) migration, even though the latter does not provide a permanent solution to depopulation. An empirical analysis has shown that there is a need to revitalise rural areas through socioeconomic improvements, infrastructure investments, and policies that directly impact rural communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is the first comparative analysis of mortality transition, as part of the demographic transition, in all the three Baltic countries during the interwar period. We address the following research questions: Which type of mortality transition is exemplified by the interwar Baltic countries' mortality patterns? Was the mortality transition completed already before WWII? What were Baltic cross-country differences in the advancement of mortality and demographic transitions? We present and use newly constructed life tables for Lithuania, 1925–1934, and draw on the work of the Estonian demographer Kalev Katus (1955–2008), publishing for the first time his life tables for Latvia in 1925–1938. Main findings: The three countries were part of the Western model of mortality transition. However, the reduction of infant and childhood mortality was lagging in Lithuania. Women of childbearing age in Estonia and mainland Latvia, as a result of earlier fertility decline, experienced longer life expectancy due to the decreased mortality from birth complications. Nevertheless, in all three countries mortality transition was still incomplete by WWII. A comparison of death causes in 1925–1939 serves to corroborate the last conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past half a century many countries have witnessed a rapid fall in total fertility rates, particularly in the world's most advanced economies including the industrial powerhouses of Eastern Asia and Europe. Such nations have now passed through the first and second demographic transitions and are currently exhibiting fertility rates well below the replacement threshold of 2.1, with no sign of recovery. This paper examines the factors responsible for driving these demographic transitions and considers their impact on both fertility and fecundity (our fundamental capacity to reproduce). I argue that because the first demographic transition was extremely rapid and largely driven by socioeconomic factors, it has had no lasting impact on the genetic/epigenetic underpinnings of human fecundity. However, the second demographic transition will be different. A series of conditions associated with low fertility societies, including relaxed selection pressure for high-fertility genotypes, the indiscriminate use of assisted reproductive technologies to treat human infertility, and environmental contamination with reproductive toxicants, may impact our genetic constitution in ways that compromise the future fecundity of our species. Since any fundamental change in the genetic foundations of human reproduction will be difficult to reverse, we should actively pursue methods to monitor human fecundity, as sub-replacement fertility levels become established across the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper deals with the present collective bargaining conflict at the railway. First, we summarize the development and legal preconditions. Next, we focus on different demands (wages, especially inflation compensation bonus, weekly working hours) and some possible solutions of the conflict. Then, we deal with strikes and their consequences. Finally, we identify the foundation of a new temporary employment agency as a potential cause for future conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews how young people's education-to-work transitions have changed since 1989 in former communist countries that have subsequently become full members of the European Union (EU). The sudden collapse of the command economies led to an equally abrupt breakdown in earlier routes into working life. Subsequently, the new independent states have reconstructed their education and training, and their market economies have developed. They now exhibit similar variations in rates of youth unemployment, progression through higher education, and mixtures of academic and vocational secondary education as older EU member states. However, there are features that continue to set all ex-communist countries apart, irrespective of whether they have become full EU members. These are low local rates of pay and westward migration. Its new member states have joined the Southern countries in a European periphery. Yet, there may be sufficient winners in the European core and periphery to keep Europe united. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: The demographic dividend, a concept that is widely used in development cooperation, describes the economic growth potential based on shifts towards a large share of workingage population in the course of the demographic transition. However, a long-term global country-level assessment of the underlying changes in the working-age population and associated demographic factors is missing. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to identify and describe past, present, and future global patterns in changes in the share of the working-age population and to detect the relevance of associated demographic factors. METHODS: Using cluster and linear regression analyses, we identify patterns in trajectories of working-age populations and detect associated demographic factors. We perform these analyses for 148 countries, using data from the UN World Population Prospects 2022 (1950-2100). RESULTS: Our results expose distinct trajectories of changes in the share of working-age population. We find noticeable differences between countries that are already further along the demographic transition and those still with relatively high levels of fertility. In addition to fertility, changes in the share of working-age population are associated with migration and population momentum. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of countries that are still in the earlier stages of the demographic transition show changes in the share of working-age population that differ substantially from countries that experienced significant fertility decline in the past. CONTRIBUTION: Besides exposing distinct trajectories of changes in the share of working-age population, our study reveals the relevance of migration and population momentum to potential benefits from a demographic dividend - two factors that are not receiving enough attention in current discussions about the prospects for demographic dividends in countries that are yet to experience noticeable increases in the share of their working-age population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the performance drivers of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) at the country level, exploring the socio-demographic specifics of donor and receiver countries. To this end, a novel Robust Compromise (RoCo) Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model is proposed using non-linear programming solved by genetic algorithms. The model builds upon established traditional models for alternative ranking and criteria weighting. Subsequently, a stochastic robust regression is performed, building upon previously computed bootstrapped Tobit, Simplex, and Beta regressions to handle performance scores ranging between 0 and 1. The goal is to test FDI performance against a set of contextual variables. The findings suggest that the performance of FDI is relatively low, and relevant improvements should be made. Our second stage analysis reports that higher GDP per capita and good social welfare, including lower infant mortality and higher life expectancy, contribute to the improvement in FDI performance. Furthermore, it is found that a large percentage of women in the total population, wealth concentration in the destination country, as well as the degree of urbanization, are helpful to improve FDI performance. Finally, we find that FDI performance is mainly concentrated on industries that are high-tech and high value-added. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we empirically explore the dynamic relationship between fertility, employment, and the demographic dividend in an African incipient demographic transition country namely, Mali. More precisely, we adopt a dynamic macro-econometric modeling approach to deal with the issue from 1990 to 2019. Our results indicate that employment has a direct and permanent positive effect on the demographic dividend in Mali as found by the literature. However and contrary to the conventional view in the literature, we interestingly find that fertility has a positive and significant long-run effect on the demographic dividend in Mali, although it seems to have non-significant short-run effects. Two persistent driving forces help to explain this fertility puzzle: (i) the desire of Malians to have a large family coupled with households' low living standards, and (ii) the dominance of the informal economy. As families willingly grow, the situation progressively puts pressure on households and particularly on women to engage in informal employment to meet their additional needs. The increase in informal employment has in turn positive effects on the demographic dividend. This finding provides crucial policy implications for Malian policymakers, notably in terms of rethinking policies towards capturing an efficient demographic dividend through enhancing labor productivity in the informal economy, rather than focusing on fertility reduction policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world has been experiencing dramatic demographic change since the 1950s, with almost all countries facing ageing challenges this coming century. However, the timing and speed of this demographic transition are significantly asymmetric across countries. This paper examines the impacts of global demographic change on macroeconomic conditions, international trade and capital flows in major economies in a global multi‐region and multi‐sector general equilibrium model. We separately simulate demographic shocks in six regions of the world economy to understand how each shock individually affects the world economy and then combine these shocks to obtain the consequences of global demographic change. The paper finds that future demographic change will significantly impact each region's GDP, changing the landscape of the world economy. However, the spillover effects on GDP across the countries are relatively small. In young economies such as emerging Asia and Africa, while economic growth will significantly benefit from demographic dividends, demographic change does not improve per capita GDP. In ageing economies such as Japan and Europe, population ageing will decrease the real interest rate. However, this impact will be offset by rising interest rates in young economies. Due to the differential real interest rates, capital will flow from more ageing to less ageing economies. These capital flows can be substantial and beneficial for all economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the evidence of relationship among household structures, the institutions that shapes them and the human capital accumulation in China, Indonesia, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. It discusses the analysis on the role of polygamous household to the capital accumulation based on the income, age and education of the head of the family members. Moreover, the study on the extended family has also been conducted in which according to the author had manifested that households which accommodate inactive members of the extended kin group are wealthier than other, comparable households.

The incessant flow of migration into urban centres has profoundly shaped the landscape of Navi Mumbai, heralding dynamic changes in its socioeconomic fabric. This paper endeavours to explore the multifaceted impact of migration on the urbanization trends within Navi Mumbai, adopting a comprehensive socio-economic perspective. Through a nuanced analysis of demographic shifts, employment patterns, and settlement dynamics, this study aims to elucidate the intricate relationship between migration and the burgeoning urban landscape. The research delves into the transformative effects of migration on the socio-economic structure of Navi Mumbai, examining its implications on infrastructure, housing, and socio-cultural dimensions. By employing a mixed-method approach integrating qualitative interviews, quantitative data analysis, and spatial mapping techniques, the study seeks to unravel the intricate interplay between migration flows and urbanization dynamics. Furthermore, it aims to highlight the challenges and opportunities that arise from this interconnection, shedding light on potential avenues for sustainable urban development and inclusive growth. This investigation aspires to contribute to the scholarly discourse on migration and urbanization, offering valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders invested in fostering resilient and equitable urban environments amidst the evolving landscape of Navi Mumbai. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between per capita CO2 emission and the population age distribution in 17 Indian states from 1980 to 2008. Using STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) framework, this paper examines the impact of the age distribution of population, per capita gross domestic product, and the share of the manufacturing sector on per capita CO2 emissions by assembling a panel dataset from published data for this time period. Each state’s population is categorized into five age intervals to estimate the effect of the share of population falling in each age interval on per capita CO2 emission. Results show that states with a larger share of the population aged between 35 to 49 years emit more carbon than those with larger younger or older shares. This analysis is supplemented by an empirical exercise using National Sample Survey data which indicates that a greater share of the prime working-age population (35-49) is associated with a greater degree of fuel consumption expenditure which in turn reflects the higher energy demand leading to higher CO2 emission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the evolution of gender equality in Sweden during a phase characterized by industrialization, urbanization, and demographic transition. To this end, we build a database with quantitative indicators to construct a spatial Historical Gender Gap Index. We find that after a period of stagnation, Sweden made significant progress in closing the gender gap from the 1940s onward to reach the high level of gender equality that it is now famous for. The empirical exploration of the relationship between gender equality and economic development reveals that regions displaying higher gender equality performed economically better than less gender-equal regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a model wherein parents choose the number of children, enroll some children in school at indivisible education costs, and receive supplemental earnings from uneducated children. The model accounts for the positive relationship between enrollment ratios and parental earnings and the N-shaped relationship between fertility and parental earnings in Brazil and Indonesia. When children's living costs are high (low) relative to education costs and children's earnings, fertility increases (decreases) with parental earnings due to a dominant income (substitution) effect. A decline in the ratio of child earnings to parental earnings or a rise in education subsidy rates can increase enrollment ratios and decrease fertility. Under progressive income taxes and favorable education subsidies for poor families, educated parents' fertility could be higher than that of illiterate parents' when incomes are low. However, the relationship will be reversed partially because of the rising education subsidy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores, theoretically and empirically, the role of the declining gender gap in education in the demographic transition and the emergence of modern economic growth. Specifically, the paper develops a model in the tradition of the unified growth theory that captures and interconnects the key empirical features of the demographic transition, the decline in gender gap in education, and the transition to sustained growth across less-developed economies. The mechanism on which the model relies comprises several interplaying components. First, technological progress reduces housework time through the creation and diffusion of labor-saving home appliances, which frees women's time for childrearing, resulting in an initial increase in fertility, as well as in labor-force participation. Second, due to the possibly higher female labor-force participation as housework time decreases, households invest relatively more in their daughters' education, given its higher return following the initial imbalance. This improves gender equality in education and increases the opportunity cost of childrearing, which leads to a subsequent decrease in fertility. Third and finally, the decrease in the education gender gap through higher investment in daughters' education increases average human capital, thus accelerating technological progress in turn. This reinforcing loop results in the transition to a new fertility regime and accelerated economic growth. We provide the empirical confirmation of the model's predictions using data from developing countries in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The key preoccupation and focus of the analytical attention of this paper is the consideration of the causative and consequential relations between the political and economic dimension of social life, that is, passing the boundary line between economy and politics. The major debate in this paper is: what is the causal relationship between democracy and economic development? When we are debating the Democracy-Development Nexus, the key finding of the analysis is reflected in the fact that, in spite of what the evidence in the scholarly literature is mixed and inconclusive, there is little disagreement that over time democracy and development are interdependent and mutually reinforcing. Although a strong positive link between the GDP per capita (key indicator of economic development) and the degree of development of the democratic structure in the case of selected transition economies has been confirmed, democracy, however, does not exclusively depend on the state of the economy, and economic weakness does not translate directly into the impossibility of democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with potential implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarizes the key features of current and projected demographic change. It then applies a new 10-region global model (an extended version of the MSG-Cubed model) incorporating demographic dynamics, to examine the consequences of projected global demographic change on the world economy from 2005 to 2050. A distinction is made between the effects on each country of its own demographic transition and the effects on each country of demographic changes occurring in the rest of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments on the paper "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition," by Warwick McKibbin. The main contribution of the paper is to provide a benchmark and starting point for any serious discussion on the future effects of demographic changes. McKibbin has taken on the important task of predicting the macroeconomic consequences of the rapid demographic changes that are taking place around the world.

The school-to-work transition is one of the trickiest steps in the life cycle of an individual because when young people complete their education and enter the labor market, they have to compete to attain a job while lacking the job experience or skills required by employers. Across European countries, the school-to-work transition shows very different characteristics and durations, stemming from, among other factors, (1) the different provisions of services at the country level to help young people become oriented in the labor market, (2) different historical backgrounds, and even (3) the different capacities of education systems to provide the skills required by employers, despite the efforts to homogenize the national education systems, which started with the Bologna process. In this paper, we aim to compare various programs implemented within formal education at the macro-level in Italy, Moldova, and Latvia, three rather different countries in Europe, that have the goal of helping young people during various stages of this transition. The conclusion we can draw is that each of these countries needs to adopt a coordinated and integrated strategy of reforms aimed at (a) preventing early school drop-outs; (b) incentivizing the attainment of a university degree; (c) reforming school curricula; (d) closing the gap between education systems and labor market requirements; and (e) improving the services that help young people during the school-to-work transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northeast China has seen a remarkable transition from rustbelt to economic revival over the past decade. However, promoting sustainable economic growth is a major issue facing Northeast China after entering the middle‐income stage of development. Based on a panel data set of 34 prefecture‐level cities in Northeast China from 2001 to 2018, this paper constructs a human capital index in terms of both quantity (educational capital) and quality (health capital) and uses the generalized method of moments (GMMs) to explore the spatial–temporal effects of human capital on economic growth under the "middle‐income trap." The results show that a key factor keeping Northeast China in the middle‐income stage is the loss of highly qualified labor and that the previous attribution of the economic downturn to the population exodus is inaccurate. Although the results of this study indicate that the demographic dividend during the demographic transition period has ended in Northeast China and that the associated low‐cost advantage has been lost, the "talent dividend" can still be obtained by improving the level of human capital and thus promoting sustainable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to disclose the savings behavior of Iran's economy in the context of demographic transition. Design/methodology/approach: Employing a version of Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model, this paper benefits from a broad range of data and variables which are mainly taken from the Central Bank of Iran's database. The study uses actual and calculated data to produce analogous simulated data. The data cover the 1970–2015 period. This long period provides an opportunity to simulate more valid time series. It is worth noting that due to the severe economic sanctions imposed on the Iran's economy, particularly after 2017, some most recent data have been obliterated from the sample. Findings: The results, stemming from the simulated model, hint that; firstly, the population variable is a notable determinant of the savings rate. Secondly, the effects of a slump in the population growth rate would attenuate the savings level significantly. Thirdly, other pragmatic steps could be taken to redress the fallout of the demographic changes. Research limitations/implications: There are some limitations in providing broad data related to economic sectors in Iran. The savings data, for instance, are available as an aggregated time series, and if the authors had wide data of household level, they would have been able to build more detail-based model. Similar to this issue of lack of households' income-based data, some measures such as high or low levels as well as detailed demographic data could be helpful in sophisticated household level resulting. In addition, the complex relationship between the government and social security (pension) funds, in terms of financing part of government's budget deficit by these funds, thwarts a typical researcher in using comprehensive and transparent government expenditure data in their research. In other words, the possible positive or negative role of the funds, as a related issue to the demographic changes, cannot simply be determined in the model. It might be possible after necessary corrections are carried out in the mentioned relations. Originality/value: In fact, the problem statement in this paper is to discern how the population aging can impact the saving rates on the one hand, and to what extent its repercussion can be modified by the other theoretical-based determinants on the other. In fact, the underlying argument of the present research arises from the stylized facts concerning prognosticates of the future evolutions of the world's population. To that end, the study will use Iran's economic and demographic data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between socioeconomic development, population policies, and fertility decline for a sample of 138 countries for the period of 1960–2016. Moreover, this study analyzes the determinants of fertility rate for the sample countries. It is found that a drastic demographic transition decline in crude birth rate for the different classified group of countries from 1960 to 2016. Furthermore, it is noted that as compare to least developed countries the average annual population growth percent of developed countries is very low. However, there is a demographic transition of different classified group of countries for the year 2000 and 2016 in developing countries as well. The results of panel estimation technique show that fertility rate depends on female labor force participation, infant mortality rate, real income, and female education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This purpose of this paper is to explore China's choice to focus early Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Africa outreach on Eastern Africa. The BRI specifically seeks to achieve ten economic and policy objectives, as outlined in the two launch speeches of 2013. In terms of realising these, the economic development and digitisation levels, that progress of the demographic transition, and the important security context of the sub-region, logically make East Africa relatively important to BRI in continental context. Kenya specifically is important in being an African frontier therein, and, also, because it shares a few important borders with landlocked countries, including Ethiopia, Sudan and Uganda, alongside a strategic coast and ports. From this lens, as well the fact that in the Ming Dynasty Chinese fleets reached what is modern-day Kenya, China's early BRI outreach to Africa having had a historical precedent in initially focusing on Eastern Africa, might be usefully understood. Design/methodology/approach: To realise that aim a comprehensive survey of related literature and policy documents, in Chinese, English and Swahili, was undertaken and relevant data compiled and analysed. Findings: To the best of the authors' knowledge, first, this paper is the first to argue that the Belt and Road Initiative in Africa may build on abstract long-run logic in terms of economics, demographic change and security. This provides a contrary perspective to the pre-existing established "debt trap diplomacy" and no consistent logic narratives. Second, it is the first to offer a synthesised analysis of the BRI in Africa, East Africa specifically, looking across economic, demographic and security angles. Research limitations/implications: The paper is a synthesis of development and regional economics literature that forges some prospective rationales only. It is not an empirical research paper drawing very specific and definitive conclusions. Practical implications: Amid widespread geo-economic tensions and uncertainty, around the Belt and Road Initiative in particular, this paper offers a new economic development-oriented logic for the choice of an important node of the China's Belt and Road Initiative, that of East Africa, Kenya especially. This may impact existing related narratives and policy responses. Social implications: Equivalently to the above this may then have an impact on the ground in East Africa and beyond. Originality/value: The first such or even close to synthesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research paper provides an overview of India's urbanisation, regional variations, and association with demographic dynamics. The study explores the contributions of the census and statutory towns to urban growth and components of urban growth. The paper examines the impacts of urbanisation on fertility and mortality in India by data collected from the Census of India and the Sample Registration System. The specific purpose of this paper is investigating the impacts of demographic changes and urbanisation in India during the period 1991–2011. The research paper has employed quantitative technical analysis with the help of ordinary least square regression for establishing the relationship of association between urbanisation and socio-demographic variables. The study has endeavored a theoretical model associating the process of urbanisation with the demographic transition. It finds that the process of urbanisation has lead to the reduction of both fertility and mortality rates in India. The smooth decline in fertility and mortality rates in urban areas of India during the 2 decades of 1991–2011 implies the positive contribution of urbanisation. Similarly, the paper argues that to a large extent, various demographic indicators have influenced the process of urbanisation. The study successfully pinpoints that the urbanisation is positively related to the demographic variables of population growth, density, and migration. It also finds positive and significant effects of per capita income and female work participation rate on urbanisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to examine a complex pattern of mutual interdependence between Unified Growth Theory (subroutine) and the evolution of the entire field of economic growth theories (main routine) from a philosophical and methodological perspective. The analysis utilises the recently introduced concept of research routine (and respectively, subroutine) aimed at an explanation of the evolution of scientific research. The study identifies the influence of the subroutine (and its specific concept of demographic transition) on the core concepts of the main routine: human capital, population growth and learning. The results are based on network analyses of extensive bibliometric evidence from Scopus and the Web of Knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between the early 1950s and the present, the global fertility transition has been nearly universal in the developing world. However, as of 2017, two countries out of the 190 countries for which the United Nations provides fertility estimates had not yet met the conventional criterion for establishing the onset of the fertility transition (a decline of at least 10 per cent from peak fertility), and another five countries did so only very recently. These are the laggards in the global fertility transition. The countries are all in sub-Saharan Africa: Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, The Gambia, Mali, Niger, and Somalia. This paper first reviews the fertility history of these seven countries, and subsequently provides data on the timing and pace of the global fertility transition in the four major developing regions: Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. It then explores potential reasons for the slow emergence of fertility decline in each country. The paper concludes with a discussion of each country’s prospects for fertility decline, which generally are weaker than those in the projections of the United Nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to develop a conceptual model of ethnic fertility differentials that incorporates the intersection of both the macro societal influences as well as the micro actor level influences. It first contextualizes ethnic fertility differentials within the global fertility decline literature. Then it reviews the extant theories of fertility decline. It then turns to an examination of fertility choices in the developed world. A summary of three major approaches to ethnic fertility differentials is examined and then incorporated into a more eclectic perspective provided by Goldscheider. Finally, this paper merges the Goldscheider perspective with the social capital perspective, as applied to fertility decisions, into a conceptual model of ethnic fertility differentials. Lastly, the new conceptual model is used to reflect upon the current state of global fertility decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper adopts an extended exogenous Solow-Swan growth model with time series framework to analyse the relationship, if any, exists between growth of working age population, savings, tertiary enrolment, trade openness and GDP per capita of Egypt during the 1971–2015 period. A multivariate cointegration analysis is developed and results reveal a potent and long run relationship exists, thus error correction model constructed to trace both the short and the long run behaviour among variables of the model. The short run dynamic shows that the lagged differential growth of working-age population to total population is positively associated with changes in GDP per capita and savings. Among our key results, growth of working age population found to be dividend and stimulating GDP per capita in both short and long run. In addition, it boosted economic growth through its dynamic interaction with gross savings. Furthermore, variance decomposition and the impulse response function show growth of working age population has a feedback effect on GDP per capita on the long run. An implication, priority should be given to population age structure, if Egypt is to reap the benefits of demographic dividend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]