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Warming temperatures and increasing disturbance by wildfire and extreme weather events is driving permafrost change across northern latitudes. The state of permafrost varies widely in space and time, depending on landscape, climate, hydrologic, and ecological factors. Despite its importance, few approaches commonly measure and monitor the changes in deep (>1 m) permafrost conditions with high spatial resolution. Here, we use electrical resistivity tomography surveys along two transects in interior Alaska previously disturbed by wildfire and more recently by warming temperatures and extreme precipitation. Long‐term point observations of permafrost depth, temperature, and water content inform geophysical measurements which, in turn, are used to extrapolate interpretations over larger areas and with high spatial fidelity. We contrast gradual loss of recently formed permafrost driven by warmer temperatures and increased snowfall, with rapid permafrost loss driven by changes in air temperature, snow depth, and extreme summer precipitation in 2014. Plain Language Summary: Permafrost, or ground that remains perennially frozen, is thawing across Arctic and sub‐Arctic regions, driven in part by climate warming, wildfire, and changes in the amount and timing of rain and snow. When permafrost thaws, previously frozen carbon can be released to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases, water flow and storage is altered, and community land use and access are impacted. Permafrost landscapes can be mapped over large areas from satellites or airborne remote sensing methods, but only at the surface with limited information obtained at depth. Measurements of deeper permafrost properties are often limited to point observations. We use geophysical measurements to indirectly map and monitor high spatial resolution changes in permafrost characteristics within the ground. Combined with point observations of soil temperature and moisture content, and thaw depths, geophysical measurements help to extend our ability to measure changing permafrost conditions over time. At two nearby transects in interior Alaska, we document the long‐term trajectory of permafrost thaw following wildfire. Our results show similar yet distinct responses in shallow permafrost recovery and more recent degradation, both gradual and rapid, caused by warming temperatures, increased snowfall, and extreme summer rainfall events. Key Points: Changes in the state of permafrost can be highly variable in both space and timeDisturbance or changes in climate and precipitation influence the long‐and short‐term trajectory of permafrost and seasonally frozen groundGeophysical measurements and monitoring complement direct permafrost observations by providing high resolution information at depth [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present discrete (2‐h resolution) multi‐year (2008–2017) in situ measurements of seasonal vegetation growth and soil biophysical properties from two sites on Alaska's North Slope, USA, representing dry and wet sedge tundra. We examine measurements of vertical active soil layer temperature and soil moisture profiles (freeze/thaw status), woody shrub vegetation physiological activity, and meteorological site data to assess interrelationships within (and between) these two study sites. Vegetation phenophases (cold de‐hardening start, physiological function start, stem growth start, stem growth end, physiological function end, cold hardening completion) were found to have greater interannual day of year (DOY) occurrence variability at the dry site compared with the wet site. At the dry site, vegetation activity begins on average ~7 days earlier and ends ~11 days earlier. The mean active stem growth window lasts ~54 days for the dry site and ~51 days for the wet site. Vegetation, in both tundra environments, began cold de‐hardening functions (warm season prep) prior to atmospheric temperatures warming above 0°C. Similar results were found related to the critical soil freeze/thaw/transition dates; the dry site had a DOY phenophase occurrence range that was 8 days larger than that of the wet site. A longer continuous summer thaw period was captured at the wet site by ~26 days throughout the active layer. In addition, the dry site was measured to have longer spring and fall soil isothermal conditions than the wet site by ~9 and 5 days throughout the active layer. These results show that the dry site's willow shrub vegetation physiology and soil condition phenology is more variable than the wet site. Alongside the in situ data, a remote sensing product from NASA's MEaSUREs program was utilized; our research indicates that the AMSR‐derived satellite product is more precise over the wet tundra site with critical date alignment between remote sensing observations and in situ measurements ranging from ~4 to 11 days. Furthermore, the AMSR product was shown to preemptively estimate land surface condition change during the spring transition for both tundra types while lagging during the fall transition and freeze‐up periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the period 1960–2010, the land surface air temperature (SAT) warmed more rapidly over some regions relative to the global mean. Using a set of time-slice experiments, we highlight how different physical processes shape the regional pattern of SAT warming. The results indicate an essential role of anthropogenic forcing in regional SAT changes from the 1970s to 2000s, and show that both surface–atmosphere interactions and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes can shape regional responses to forcing. Single forcing experiments show that an increase in greenhouse gases can lead to regional changes in land surface warming in winter (DJF) due to snow-albedo feedbacks, and in summer (JJA) due to soil-moisture and cloud feedbacks. Changes in anthropogenic aerosol and precursor (AA) emissions induce large spatial variations in SAT, characterized by warming over western Europe, Eurasia, and Alaska. In western Europe, SAT warming is stronger in JJA than in DJF due to substantial increases in clear sky shortwave radiation over Europe, associated with decreases in local AA emissions since the 1980s. In Alaska, the amplified SAT warming in DJF is due to increased downward longwave radiation, which is related to increased water vapor and cloud cover. In this case, although the model was able to capture the regional pattern of SAT change, and the associated local processes, it did not simulate all processes and anomalies correctly. For the Alaskan warming, the model is seen to achieve the correct regional response in the context of a wider North Pacific anomaly that is not consistent with observations. This demonstrates the importance of model evaluation that goes beyond the target variable in detection and attribution studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic and boreal ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon (C) budget, and whether they act as a future net C sink or source depends on climate and environmental change. Here, we used complementary in situ measurements, model simulations, and satellite observations to investigate the net carbon dioxide (CO2) seasonal cycle and its climatic and environmental controls across Alaska and northwestern Canada during the anomalously warm winter to spring conditions of 2015 and 2016 (relative to 2010–2014). In the warm spring, we found that photosynthesis was enhanced more than respiration, leading to greater CO2 uptake. However, photosynthetic enhancement from spring warming was partially offset by greater ecosystem respiration during the preceding anomalously warm winter, resulting in nearly neutral effects on the annual net CO2 balance. Eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements showed that air temperature has a primary influence on net CO2 exchange in winter and spring, while soil moisture has a primary control on net CO2 exchange in the fall. The net CO2 exchange was generally more moisture limited in the boreal region than in the Arctic tundra. Our analysis indicates complex seasonal interactions of underlying C cycle processes in response to changing climate and hydrology that may not manifest in changes in net annual CO2 exchange. Therefore, a better understanding of the seasonal response of C cycle processes may provide important insights for predicting future carbon–climate feedbacks and their consequences on atmospheric CO2 dynamics in the northern high latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A model for predicting shallow depth soil temperatures is important and effective to assess the changes in soil conditions related to global climate change and local disturbances. Shallow-depth soil temperature estimation model in cold region in Alaska is developed based on thermal response using air temperature and shallow-depth soil water content during active layer development period of 160 days from May to October. Among the seven soil temperature measurement sites, data from four sites were used for model development, and the remaining three sites were used for model validation. Near the middle of the seven measurement sites, air temperature is monitored at one location. The proposed model implemented concepts of thermal response and cumulative temperature. Temperatures and soil water contents were measured using automated remote sensing technology. Consequently, it was confirmed that the developed model enables fast and accurate assessment of shallow-depth soil temperature during active soil layer development period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]